Pierre Brondeau
Analyst · KeyBanc.
Yes. Actually, let me take, if you don't mind, an opportunity to talk a bit about our full year and third quarter and fourth quarter because we actually feel quite strong about the way the year is unfolding and we feel quite strong about the demand or positioning for our product. First, the third quarter, as you know, we are guiding with an EPS about -- if you take the midpoint of our guidance, so about 12% versus last year. And there is certainly a number which could be viewed as slightly below what a company like ours could be delivering in such a quarter but there is some very well-defined event which will be over in this quarter. First, we were talking about soda ash. That business has 2 things which are happening. First of all, you know that every 5 or 6 quarters, we move the longwall where we are mining. Last year, it was in Q2. This year, it's in Q3. And Granger, as much as the startup costs are being done, last year, operating with full staffing on the ramp-up capacity, so we have the cost of a full plant, but we are not producing at full capacity yet. That is about a $7 million impact on the quarter versus normal operations. We've talked about the 2 snowstorms and the yield issues we have in Lithium, we believe it's going to be an impact of about $3 million in the third quarter and then the weather in North America for Ag business, and we qualify that versus a normal quarter at about $5 million. So you put all of those elements together, which are very well defined. You're talking about a $15 million impact on the quarter. If you would add that number to what we are forecasting as earnings, you would have a year-on-year earnings growth for the third quarter, which would be comfortably above the 20%. So now moving on to the fourth quarter. Obviously, it proved, sequentially, the long haul, it will be done; Granger will be operating at full capacity; lithium, the yield issues will be behind us; and from an Ag standpoint, we get into the Brazil season, which we have no reason not to believe will be another very strong season for us. So if you look at the fourth quarter, it is pretty much a quarter which is shaping normally for our 2 business, Specialty and Ag, and shaping very strong for industrial because the one-off we talked about will be over, Granger will be at capacity and we have a very strong price situation. So the year looks well on target, maybe with the distribution across the 2 quarters, which is not your regular distribution, but we are quite comfortable with this forecast.