Ferrovial SE (FER) Q1 2021 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Thanks, Begona. Thanks, Alejandro, for your question. This is Pedro Losada, Cintra CFO. With respect to your first question on the proposal to subsidize trucks on the 407, we have no conversations whatsoever about this matter with the MTO, so nothing to comment on that matter. With respect to the Highway 413, remember that in full year, we gave some opinions from the company about this project. Over the last few months, there has been even more opposition from municipalities and regions on the project. The environmental assessment, the main change is that since this last Monday, the federal government will enter into play to also make an analysis and opinion about that analysis – that environmental assessment, sorry. So under our standpoint, that means that, number one, they can, after the analysis that will take some time, for sure, could maintain the scope, could change the scope or even could cancel the project. But this is based on our own information that is based on public information. In any case, we assume this potentially will delay significantly the process because probably to make that assessment, the federal government will need to start from scratch. Thanks very much. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next question also from Alejandro: Could you comment on the investment opportunities in connection with the economic recovery plans in Ferrovial’s market? Ernesto López Mozo: Well, thanks for the question. I mean this is quite an ample question. I mean in Europe, in Spain, you have about the next-gen funds. The next-gen funds are related to opportunities, a lot based on energy efficiency, renewables, other digital initiatives. So I mean there’s going to be investment in urban, let’s say, improvement for this sort of energy efficiency that I mentioned, that will be part of projects we can pull in. There’s, of course, things in mobility related to 5G and this could be not only next gen here, but also could be things related to the U.S. and other areas, right? So you can have opportunities of development of products to optimize traffic, to also provide services to – and safety to your drivers. There’s different things here that are more related to software or to IT where we have capabilities and can be done. But all these things that are more related to the recent flavors and we look into some things that we can do here and it’s not a small amount. But we see, in any case, a need for infrastructure in many countries, the U.S. being the main one. And here it’s a mixture. There’s some public things where we will compete. There’s others that are being in what we call development phase and we can only comment when they come to the market. But we are talking about opportunities that in the next four years, could be several billions of total equity, for instance, in the U.S. I’m not being more specific here, given some are in the development phase. Others will be for a bit. And I don’t know if maybe later on in the conference, we can comment some of the public projects. But in general, some of them will be more probably when they are out of the development phase. So it’s several billion in opportunities in these different markets. And of course, it’s not only these possibilities. Also, we’ll be looking at possibilities that could come up in airports that could be attractive, and in general, other infrastructure, right? So there’s opportunities. I’m not being more specific. We prefer to comment for it, on projects when they become more public. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Ernesto. The next set of questions come from Jacopo di Nardo from Latitude: Looking at congestion data around the world that is reopened, it seems like there is not a huge amount of difference versus 2019, apart from maybe a flatter curve of congestion around the day. How are you thinking about the overall tariffs once the states of emergency are lifted in your North American markets?

Thanks, Jacopo, for the question. This is Pedro Losada again. Well, as you mentioned, you’re talking about once restrictions are lifted, and we’re still in the middle of a lot of restrictions in many of our regions and that are impacting our assets. It’s true that we have seen improvement as restrictions are easing a little bit, but it’s too premature, probably not prudent to share with you our views, given we need to wait a little bit more to have more data points to take those decisions. Just to give you a little bit more color, perhaps we can say that we are seeing a small change in traffic patterns during the day, with less trips being done during the AM peaks and a full recovery in middays and PM peaks, driven by home-based, non-work-related trips and trucks. But again, it’s – we are monitoring how traffic profiles are evolving and we will adjust the toll rates policy accordingly. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next question also from Jacopo: You sold the Budimex house builder in Poland for circa 2 times tangible book value. What would you like to do with the proceeds? Will they be reinvested in Poland? Iñaki García: Thank you, Jacopo. I mean this is Iñaki García, Ferrovial Construction CFO. I think part of the question has been already answered by Ernesto. I mean we reached a conditional agreement on March. It’s still to be closed, but it’s been communicated to the Securities and Exchange Commission that the deadline has been extended to the 14th of May, but it’s very likely that we close this deal. And of course, I mean your numbers are right. The proceeds are going to be around €330 million with a surplus before tax and minorities of €150 million. Regarding what to do, I mean with the proceeds, I think it’s very soon I mean to talk about this in this moment. I mean first, because it’s not closed. And second, because whatever decision will be taken by the supervisory and shareholders meeting of Budimex. But of course, I mean we are analyzing all the opportunities. I mean considering what Ferrovial could do, a balance between dividends and potential investments in Poland. And of course, there are good opportunities in Poland that will be analyzed as we do always. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Iñaki. The last question from Jacopo: You’ve now a very high net cash position. Would you consider a buyback of larger dimensions to shrink the discount to your net asset value? Ernesto López Mozo: Thanks for the question. You’re right. I mean we have a priority to invest and many of you guys have pointed that out. I mean we have a net cash position. That is quite important is liquidity and we need to invest to create value. We are working on industrial investments. That’s the preference because we think that we are at a time where a lot of infrastructure will happen. I know that there has been a lot of comment that a big chunk could have been Maryland, but there’s others coming. And we have a priority for that. Of course, if we cannot deliver that, maybe that could be entertained. I mean closing the discount to the net asset value is something that is very important. We think that the best way to do that is to invest wisely, but we don’t rule out in case we don’t consider it. So priority for the house is to invest profitably and then develop and clinch the opportunities that could be coming. Begoña Morenes: The next question comes from Nicolo Pessina from Mediobanca: Regarding the 407 ETR, what are your expectations in terms of traffic recovery?

Thanks, Nicolo. Again, based on the restrictions and that we are currently under shutdown on the stay-at-home order, it’s too premature to try even to share our own views. We need to wait a little bit more once restrictions are lifted and also looking quite close to the vaccination evolution that is going nowadays better than a few weeks ago. It’s speeding and that will give probably the opportunity to have more views in the coming months, but today it’s too soon to answer these questions. Thanks. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. Also from Nicolo: How are the nearby highways to the 407 performing?

Well, typically, we do not share this type of information. Sometimes this information is not public and we are mindful of our obligations with the public authority that could share this type of info. What we can share is we work with technical services providers that gave us some views about how congested could be our corridors all around our assets. One of the companies, StreetLight, what we can share with you is that, that company end up with the conclusion that 401, particularly, but probably that could be extrapolated to the rest of the corridor, but 401, has a 30% down traffic performance with respect to 2019. That can give you a little bit of flavor and partially answer your question. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. Third question from Nicolo: Considering Ontario Ministry of Transportation seems to be increasing the tariffs for Highway 407 in June. Would you expect 407 ETR to do the same at some point this year?

Thank you, Nicolo, again. Just to clarify, 407 ETR contract has nothing to do with 407 extension contracts. So despite the fact that probably there’s a scheduled tariff increase for this next July in some of the extensions, again, that has nothing to do with the 407. Besides, as Ernesto has explained during the presentation and based on the agreement with the MTO and based on the fact that we are still under a force majeure event, it’s not foreseeable that we can change at all the tariff during 2021. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Nicolo. Thank you, Pedro. The last question from Nicolo: With the current traffic outlook, would you expect NTE and LBJ to pay a dividend in 2021? And what could the dividend policy be going forward?

Thank you, Begoña. Well, we – as we have mentioned in the presentation, after this quarter and the lifting of restrictions in the Dallas area, we feel more confident that the base – that the performance is going to evolve much better during the rest of the year. As per the financing contract, we are allowed to pay dividends in June and December. So we need to wait till those months, comply with the covenants and ratios of the financing contracts and then hopefully, if the Board decides, we will distribute dividends, yes. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next question comes from Filipe Leite from CaixaBank BPI: Why does the EBITDA from other activities stand at €15 million in the first quarter of 2021 versus minus €38 million in the first quarter of 2020? Ernesto López Mozo: Okay. Well, thanks for the question. Well, one main driver and a second one, more than any other thing, the first main driver is that in the first quarter, we took a provision to streamline overheads and digitize support functions. That affected the first quarter of 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, you have an impact that is quite sad for management, that we got much less shares and bonus, given the COVID-19 affecting the performance of the share and the results. And that was released, this part, this year. And then other minor parts are, as I mentioned before, waste treatment from the UK. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Ernesto. The next set of questions come from Elodie Rall from JPMorgan: You mentioned that no Schedule 22 will be due until there is an increase in toll rates or user charges for any segment of the 407. Can you clarify on what level of the increase in tariffs is this based on? Is it 2019 or 2020 level? Thank you.

Thanks, Elodie. This is Pedro Losada. The tariffs are referring to the current ones. So we can – we are restricted to change tariffs with respect to the current ones that we are handling in the concession. That would be once we have the impact. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next question also from Elodie: You last said you expected 407 ETR to resume dividends by the end of 2021. Is this still the case? Or has the situation changed? Did the Schedule 22 outcome affect the way you look about dividends?

Thanks, Elodie, again. Starting with the last part of the question, I would say the other way around, the Schedule 22 changed the way we see dividends on the positive side. On the first part of the question, yes, we maintain that the idea is, again, based on how traffic evolves. And that means how the ratios in terms of financial restrictions and with the rating agencies evolve during the year. We are assuming that based on all of that, the Board could take a decision to backload it, as we said on the full year results, the potential dividend distribution by the end of 2021. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next set of questions come from Luis Prieto from Kepler Cheuvreux: After the initial decision from the Maryland DOT regarding the protest of the I-270 outcome, should we expect Cintra’s consortium to further appeal against this decision?

Thank you, Luis, for the question. Unfortunately, we are still stuck on our NDA with the administration as we were back in February when we started to receive these questions. We have read the press, as you guys, but we are restricted by the confidentiality agreement, so we cannot make any comment whatsoever on this process. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next question also from Luis: Is there any update you can provide us with on the managed lanes pipeline in the U.S.? Are you seeing increased competition? Is there any change in your views on the country on account of the President’s infrastructure plan proposal, particularly in light of the potential tax changes?

Thanks, Luis. Well, in – with respect to the increasing competition and pipeline in the U.S., we are monitoring different alternatives. We have mentioned some of them in the last results presentation. We are looking for several opportunities in different states as Georgia, Florida, Texas, I mean some of them that were mentioned before. Some others are a little bit confidential, but still looking for managed lanes opportunities with high concessional value. As you know, that is one of the main goals of the company. With respect to the competition, as we have seen in the last process with here with – we’re involved in Maryland, we have not seen too much rise in terms of competitors. So we still see the usual suspects on this. With respect to your comment on tax. I think it’s a little bit soon to see the scope of Biden’s tax reform, although a potential tax hike could hit our tax position because we have a significant amount of tax credit. We do not expect a severe cash tax impact. But again, a little bit soon to analyze the scope of the tax reform. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next set of questions come from Marcin Wojtal from Bank of America: Considering the agreement reached on Schedule 22, is your intention to keep toll prices at the 407 unchanged until traffic volumes reach pre-pandemic levels? Or could you consider raising prices sooner than that?

Thank you, Marcin. Yes, again, sorry, I’m repeating myself too many times, that it’s so soon to answer these type of questions. We need to see how things evolve, sorry. We definitely, we need to see whether when and how we are going to reach this pre-pandemic level, then to understand which is the trade-off to increase prices or to maintain them in – for the sake of the interest of the concession. But again, it’s too soon to answer these questions. Thanks. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next question also from Marcin: Do you anticipate to present bids for new U.S. managed lanes projects before the end of 2021?

Thanks, Marcin. We are not – we don’t have a pipeline for managed lanes before the end of 2021. It’s true that we are working on several initiatives that could create pipeline in the coming 12 to 18 months. But no, the answer is no, we don’t have any specific projects of managed lanes in this year. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next question and last from Marcin: Do you expect Heathrow to require an equity injection over the next 12 months? And would Ferrovial be willing to participate? Iñaki García: Thank you, Begoña. Hello, Marcin. Heathrow has a healthy cash position of amounted £4.5 billion. That cash is enough to meet our forecast needs for the next 15 months under the very extreme scenario of no revenues. On top of that, the balance sheet has got very strong because of the recent capital increase of £600 million in the SP vehicle and the reopening amounting to £300 million. So strong liquidity, a strong balance sheet. Having said all that, there might be downside scenarios resulting into a potential breach of covenants at Heathrow Finance. We would see those breach of covenants as technical and temporary ones, so we don’t expect to have an equity injection at the Heathrow level because of these reasons. Thank you, Marcin. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Iñaki. The next question comes from Kenton Moorhead from DWS: What percentage of Spain Spain’s Services is waste business? Is this the entire business in Spain or just a portion of it? Ernesto López Mozo: Yes. Hi, Kenton. It’s a portion, but it’s a big one. I mean it’s between 70% and 80% of the value of the business in Spain. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Ernesto. The next question or set of questions come from Patrick Creuset from Goldman Sachs: How is the light truck or e-commerce-related traffic currently trending on the managed lanes and the 407 as a percentage of pre-COVID levels?

Thank you, Patrick. As we have mentioned several times, the trend, it’s better in terms of the performance in heavies versus pre-COVID and most of them is boosted by the e-commerce. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The last question from Patrick: The I-66 is now more than 60% complete. How do you see the chances of an early opening mid-next year as achieved with the Dallas managed lanes?

Thanks, Patrick. As of today, we are running according to schedule, so we cannot say that we – that there’s a real chance for an early opening mid-next year. So we maintain by the end of 2022 as the goal for ending the construction. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next question comes from Jose Manuel Arroyas from Santander: About the mechanics of the new Schedule 22 rules, you say the suspension of Schedule 22 lasts until there is an increase in toll rates for any segment. Just to confirm, if the ETR raises tolls in just one segment of the road, does this mean Schedule 22 is back in full application as per usual across all 25 segments of the 407 ETR?

Thanks, Jose Manuel. The answer is yes. If you increase the tariffs in just one segment, you pay for the S22 full amount. Begoña Morenes: Thank you very much. The next question comes from – set of questions come from Nabil Ahmed from Barclays: Could you please provide an idea of Texas managed lanes pricing in the first quarter, excluding the mix, i.e., heavy vehicles?

Thank you, Nabil. Sorry, we do not provide a breakdown on this. We share the average and the 30% transaction and that is a mix of the heavy vehicles impact in terms of the weight for that average calculation, but also on tariffs. And as we have mentioned in the presentation, those tariffs has went up in all of the three Texas managed lanes. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next question also from Nabil: How do the motorways traffic trend look like in April? Is there any improvement in the 407 ETR?

Thank you, Nabil. Well, the way we see April is pretty much in line with March, so it’s good evolution. But keep in mind that April, we have seen higher level of mobility restrictions, but in line with March. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. Next question also from Nabil: Has the LBJ started to recover? And did you see a continuation of the March trend for the NTE and for 35W?

Yes. Thank you, Nabil. Yes, we have seen in the presentation that the 3 Dallas tollways has performed much better during March with – compared to 2020 and we keep on seeing the same type of evolution during April. So the answer to your question is yes. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. The next question also from Nabil: Could you please update on your savings plan at group level? Ernesto López Mozo: Hi. Thanks, Nabil for the question. Well, you know that we aim for a €50 million saving per annum. We are pretty close to that amount, close to €40 million savings. The reason for not being getting 50 is – part of it comes with digitization that needs implementation of systems and so on, right? So we are currently above €30 million, approaching €40 million and the €50 million should be achieved once the implementations of the IT is finalized. And for that, we should be looking to 2022 in the second half. Begoña Morenes: Thank you. The next question also from Nabil: How much cash consumption would you expect for Construction in full year 2021? Iñaki García: Nabil, thank you for your question. This is Iñaki. Well, it’s too soon, I mean to give you any guidance on the cash consumption. But just to give you some color, I would say that there are three levers, I mean that will be playing. I mean the first one is the – of course, we have this provision for losses in the U.S., no impact on the P&L, but of course, I mean these losses should be paid. On the other hand, I mean you know that we are contracting and still we have high expectations of high contracting, high awarding. So that will – that could give some advanced payments. I mean if all the contracts are awarded in time during the year and the 13 – the divestments that have already commenced that probably will be collected during this year. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Iñaki. The next question and last from Nabil: How much CapEx do you expect for the group in full year 2021? Ernesto López Mozo: Hi, Nabil. Well, the main driver of CapEx here is investments in I-66 that are kind of accelerating from Cintra that could get close to €400 million. And then you’ve seen investment in AGS by airports and other investments in the group would be minor but we could easily be in the high €500 million, close to €600 million for the year. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Ernesto. The next set of questions come from Tobias Woerner from Stifel: Have you – you have seen a significant improvement in the Services divisions. Can you explain a bit on why, please? Ernesto López Mozo: Well, there’s different things going on, right? I mean in – you’ve got Amey. Amey had more activity in social infrastructure, defense contracts and maintenance and also more highway maintenance. This higher activity was reflected in higher EBITDA. In terms of Spain, also, you had an improvement in industrial waste and also in the waste from hospitals and so on. So waste treatment vis-à-vis last year was also a clear improvement. And also, some contracts that were more affected by the pandemic last year related to maintenance of – well, mainly services to infra like the, let’s say, the trip attendant in rail. In Spain, the Renfe contract also was performing better than last year that had reduced activity given the pandemic. So overall, more activity also in the parts that could have a higher margin. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Ernesto. The next question from Tobias: The AGS at equity result was significantly less bad than last year. Could you explain why? Ignacio Gastón: Hello, Tobias. This is Ignacio Gastón from Ferrovial Airports. The reason is accounting, in particular, international accounting standard number 28. Basically, the share of losses for AGS has exceeded the interest of Ferrovial into that company. Therefore, Ferrovial has to discontinue recognizing further losses coming from AGS. Thank you, Tobias. Thank you, Begoña. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Ignacio. The last question from Tobias: Are you starting to see more projects in Spain and Poland on the back of the EU’s next-generation recovery plan? Iñaki García: Thank you. Iñaki again. I can tell you about Construction. It still is too soon, I mean and we need more clarity on the plans and we expect this clarity in the second half of the year. But what is true is that Ferrovial Construction has already presented expressions of interest, around 3.4 billion. Basically, green real estate and energy-related, no, I mean urban rehabilitation, industrial real estate. So I mean there are projects we expect, I mean as mentioned, more clarity on these projects, but we expect some kind of pipeline. I mean that we have the capabilities, I mean to get to those, no? Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Inaki. The last questions come from Nicolas Mora from Morgan Stanley: Looking at NTE and NTE 35W, most advanced in the recovery, westbound traffic on NTE gets premium pricing. When could eastbound traffic also jump on the bandwagon of dynamic pricing? What about 35W?

Thank you, Nicolas. It’s true that eastbound is performing better, but also westbound is getting closer to the – to those same levels, probably, we need to wait a little bit further, but we are positive that we will get there and that will apply not only for the NTE, also for the NTE 35W. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. And then last question from Nicolas: What would you say is needed for LBJ traffic to return to 2019 performance. Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport further ramping up, the end of works on the eastern stretch, which are expected for late 2024, economic growth and lesser impact from working from home? Thank you.

Yes. Thank you, Nicolas. Probably, I would say that we’ll – more to do with people coming back to the office. Keep in mind that LBJ is an urban corridor with higher percentage of commuters. So – and we see out of the three, that the – probably you have less traffic even in the corridor. And that’s why this is more impacted in terms of traffic overall, but it’s probably more related to commuters than the other things that you are mentioning. Thank you. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Pedro. We have a last set of questions, which is just coming in. We’ll be reading them shortly. The next set of questions come from Charles Maynadier from Kempen: Could we expect further divestments of some of your mature toll road assets in the short term? Ernesto López Mozo: Thanks. No, not really this year, but we expect this to finalize to close the pending ones and that are just pending authorization, but not at this point in time, no. Thanks. Begoña Morenes: The last question from Charles Maynadier: Given the changes to your initial estimates for the managed lanes, traffic mix, dividends, et cetera and the inclusion of new assets, do you expect at some point after the pandemic to give visibility to the market through an updated or a simplified version of the toll roads valuation file you provided in 2019? Ernesto López Mozo: Thanks. Yes. I mean we should. I mean we really need to look at more information patterns, how things are. We have to make the decision just on how patterns, let’s say, become more apparent and also our investment activity. The combination of those two things means that not in the short term, but it’s something that is helpful for investors has been in the past and it’s something we should carefully look at. Now with all the activity ramping up and more investment, I don’t think it’s the time, but we keep looking at the right occasion to provide more information. Begoña Morenes: Thank you, Ernesto. There are no further questions. Ernesto López Mozo: Well, thank you all for attending the call, for being with us. I think that the news are encouraging. Hopefully, all the health situation will recover more quickly, all the vaccinations will work. Thank you. Bye-bye.