Richard Adkerson
Analyst · JPMorgan Chase
Good morning, everyone. I would like to start with Slide 4, which has the financial results that Kathleen just reviewed for you, and add a little color to how we had better-than-anticipated performance for this year. To start with, as we look across all of our mines and processing operations, we really had strong performance in our units across the board. We benefited from the high commodity prices. And it was great to see our business operating so well at a time when we have the exposure to these -- to prices at this level. And in particular, I want to comment on the situation that we had at Grasberg. Some of you will recall that mid-year last year, we announced that we were making some revisions to our mine plant at that time because of issues that we saw in the section of the Grasberg open pit. We deferred some planned production, changed some of our mining activities and reflected those in our plans. As we went forward, at the end of 2010 and into the first quarter, we made really good progress in dealing with those slope issues. And that allowed us, as a result of the improved situation there, to get access to higher grade material at the bottom of the Grasberg pit. It's an unusual mine, certainly different from any of our other mines and different from other mines in the industry and as the grades of copper and particularly of gold are so high at the lower elevations of the pit, that by mining a relatively small amount of material in the context of the total material that we mine out there each day, that translates into higher volumes of copper and particularly for gold. And that allowed us to mine, to produce almost 50% more physical ounces of gold this year than we had projected. It's something that happens over time. We develop our plans then on an operational basis as we see the opportunity to access higher grades quicker. I mean, those volumes would always be mined during our life of mine plan. But when we can do that quicker than planned in a way that's safe in terms of the integrity of the pit and in a way that is consistent with our maintaining our long-term mine plans on the basis of both safety and economics, we do that. And that's what allowed us to have the kinds of volumes that we had for gold and to some extent, copper. But looking beyond that, I want to emphasize that as you look at the particularly like the data on Page 5, you can see that our operations in North America, South America and in Africa, in our Molybdenum business all performed very well during the quarter. Kathleen mentioned the fact that like everyone in the industry, we are facing some higher input costs from energy, tires, steel. That's just the world we live in. And some of the reasons for that are correlated with the reasons we have higher copper prices. What I was pleased about is we reviewed our individual operations that even in the face of these increased input costs, our team was able to achieve and maintain certain of the efficiencies that we built in our business following the downturn in 2008, 2009. So while some of the costs were inevitable, we have had efficiencies that we are working every day to maintain. We had success in doing that. With the higher volumes of gold at Grasberg and the higher gold price, another feature of our company is that allows us to have such an attractive consolidated unit cost of $0.79, net of credit, for this year that adds in all of those factors together. Our view on copper markets remains very positive. We are running our business and developing our development plans with an optimistic view about long-term demand for copper globally, driven by China and the developing world as well as an improvement in the economies of the developed world, as well -- coupled with the continuing challenges the industry faces in maintaining and developing new supplies of copper to meet that demand. In the near-to-medium term, a number of issues who affect that including the unfortunate tragedy in Japan as well as buying patterns in China. But we continue to be extremely positive about the outlook for the copper industry and the Molybdenum business. And of course, we benefit from the record prices we're now achieving in the gold markets. On Slide 7 it's just a simple illustration of what our strategy is. And I will say our strategy is simple and straightforward. We are working diligently. Our exploration team has done an outstanding job in adding to our mineral resource base, principally by drilling activity and exploration analysis associated with our existing ore bodies. That's leading to significant reserve additions. It's been 4 years since the Phelps Dodge combination with Freeport. And we've added 43 billion pounds of proved and probable copper reserves as a result of that activity. The Phelps-Dodge reserves that we acquired at that time were between 55 billion and 60 billion pounds. So that is a very significant incremental addition to our reserves as a result of our activities. Then we're looking at our reserves and our resources and developing attractive development projects by investing internally in them. And we're aggressively pursuing those because of our positive view of the markets for our products. And we're going forward just as quickly as we can. These projects take time because of not only drilling requirements but engineering analysis, metallurgical work, permitting, securing, power and water in certain instances. But all of those are going to add into significant future growth for our company over a long period of time. And we have a long-term pipeline of projects that will be coming up over time. In the meantime, the very positive markets we have, our existing strong production base, our attractive cost structure, is generating cash flows in excess of the requirements for current investments. And that's allowing our board to have a very attractive cash returns to our shareholders. So we're focused on growing production, focused on generating cash flows and that adds up to a very attractive situation for our company. I want to comment on a number of our projects that we're working on and the progress that we're making. At Morenci, our flagship mine in North America, we have restarted the mill that we had shut down during 2008. It averaged 48,000 tons per day, nearing its design capacity. We've increased the mine rate, which we had cut in half there in an effort to reduce an element of high-cost production from our operations and drive our costs down. Now we're stepping mine rates back up. We have reached our original target of roughly 700,000 short tons. And we're looking to increase that rate further as we can do it economically in the present price environment. We have begun feasibility study for our mill expansion at Morenci. Morenci, in the not-too-distant past, was viewed as a mine that didn't have expansion opportunities. And now with our exploration work and understanding the resource better, we're seeing the opportunity for significant growth in stepping our mill expansion up to 115,000 tons per day, which is more than a doubling of our current design rate. And that would provide an additional 150 million to 200 million pounds of copper within the next 2 or 3 years. In the Miami Globe district, historical mining area just east of Phoenix here, we have begun mining activities that we had deferred at Miami. We are doing stripping now. And we're ramping this up to get 100 million pounds of copper a year. It's a $40 million project. And it's basically capturing copper reserves in an area where we were having to spend money to do reclamation activities. And so the economics are extraordinarily positive there. And our mine at Safford near Morenci, we have completed the construction of a sulfur burner. The ore at Safford requires significant sulfuric acid to produce it. By having this sulfur burner there, we have a lot more flexibility with our operations. And there is attractive expansion opportunities at the Safford ore body as well as the nearby Lone Star ore body. And the sulfur burner gives us that opportunity to look for those more aggressively than we otherwise would have. In New Mexico, Chino mine was our one mine that we had totally ceased operations on in 2008. And now, we are restarting it. Restart will require about $150 million of cost. We will build up over time to 200 million pounds a year of copper, very attractive economics. And Chino is a 100-year-plus mine. And as we keep working, we keep adding reserves. So in this environment, it's a very attractive asset for us. I was just at our mine in Chile at El Abra, was there for CESCO week we had talked about the Sulfolix project. This is a replacement-type project, where we have sulfide ore that's available to us to replace the oxide ore base. We deferred this project for a year, and now we've completed it. We commenced production the first quarter of this year. And we're extending the leach pad now. It's a $725 million capital project, with initial phase of $565 million. And the construction project has gone extraordinarily well. One of the things about -- a common theme you hear about our mines, at El Abra, our exploration activities have identified significantly greater resource than we thought was there. And this is a sulfide resource. We're working with our partner, CODELCO, to identify synergies for a joint development effort to give us access to this ore. We're looking at other potential sources of ore in the area. And we believe that we will find the opportunity to go forward with a major incremental mill project at El Abra. At Cerro Verde in Chile, we have been working on and are now completing a feasibility study for a very large-scale concentrator expansion. We've had additional reserves added, resources added. Our current reserve life is 78 years, so we need to find ways to shorten that by expanding production. We had talked about a double or tripling. Now we're focused on tripling production there. The feasibility study will be completed by mid-year, and then we'll be filing our Environmental Impact Assessment. This will be 1 of the world's largest concentrator operations with this level of expansion. In Indonesia, we are progressing, as we have been for a number of years now, the development of our underground reserves. These are probably the most attractive reserves to develop in the global mining industry, considering the grades of copper and the associated gold [indiscernible] it. We are mining underground now with our DOZ mine at 80,000 tons per day on a global stage, that is 1 of the world's very largest underground mine. We're also -- we've been block cave mining at Grasberg since the 19-- early 1980s. We have a long track record of doing that safely and in a way that would attract the economics. When the Grasberg open pit is completed, and our current plans call for that to be completed in 2016 although we're studying the possibility of extending it somewhat beyond that and we'll make a decision on that in the next year or so, we will be a total underground operation. But we're very confident about our ability to have large-scale mine volumes. Our throughput through our mill would be roughly equivalent to where it is today and with very significant copper and gold production at attractive cost level. In Africa, a good news story there is that with our initial development, we had designed our mill to operate at 8,000 tons per day and we are achieving close to 11,000 tons per day through that mill. What this has allowed us to do is to add some mining equipment, not significant investments, but to increase the ore, so that we can take advantage of the higher design, higher capacity achieved by our mill. And we're doing that and achieving higher volumes. We are actively studying the second phase expansion, which would add 150 million pounds a year at Tenke Fungurume over the next couple of years and our exploration in metallurgical work and engineering work on further expansions is progressing. But we would have further opportunities with available oxide ore. And we are looking at alternatives for processing the very large amounts of mixed ore and what appears to be a really large sulfide resource there to provide us long-term opportunities. Over this past week or this week, the presidential decree was signed and published, which formally completes the contract review process that we were engaged in for many months. The decree really was a step to validate the amendments to our contracts that we signed with the government in the fourth quarter of 2010. Since that date, there were no further negotiations or requests by the government, so it was a formal step to complete that process. At Climax, our construction is now 60% complete. As we talked about in our last earnings call, we accelerated our construction activities from our original plan. We took advantage of the structures that we had built earlier to do work inside the structure on the SAG mill and the ball mill. Mine development activities have begun now, and we expect to complete construction totally by early 2012. This was a $700 million project, and we're about half way there in terms of cost. Very attractive project with 30 million pounds of initial production of molybdenum at a very attractive cost level. And we have the ability to expand that. We've begun hiring mining operators to do the stripping and preparing the mine for production. Our next step will be a decision as to when to hire operators for the processing facilities. And at that point, we will set a specific startup date for the project. We have an analysis, a summary of these, our copper projects that I mentioned earlier, on Slide 16. The Morenci expansions, Miami, Chino, Tenke, Cerro Verde de-bottleneck project that's now in place, gives us about 500 million pounds of incremental copper. And then the El Abra Sulfolix, the Grasberg underground will be replacement type projects to replace depleting ores or the depleting pit at the Grasberg. So those are all progressing. Then there are other near-term major projects that we're pursuing. The Cerro Verde project that I mentioned earlier, preliminary capital is about $3.5 billion on that project. The mill expansion at Morenci, the next expansion at Tenke, would add 900 million pounds to 950 million pounds of copper over the relatively near term. Timing will be affected by how we proceed with our engineering studies and permitting and so forth. But this gives us significant incremental copper. Now, other projects that we're working on just as diligently are very significant projects beyond these. This includes a large-scale mill at Morenci, mill expansion opportunities at our Sierrita mine outside Tucson, which has a significant molybdenum component to it. At Bagdad, we're looking at a district that had historical mining opportunities at Ajo here in Arizona. And then Twin Buttes was a mine that had not operated in several years that's just adjacent to Sierrita where we're looking at joint operations or perhaps a separate development at Twin Buttes. And then I mentioned Safford and Lone Star, the significant opportunity at El Abra and then at Africa, the further expansion of oxides and the ultimate development of the sulfide resource there. So this is what I was talking about earlier, our development opportunities extend from things that are starting now to things that will be starting in the near term, to others that require longer-term investments. But it's a continual flow of expansion opportunities. We're increasing our exploration budget to $225 million. It's focused on our existing ore bodies, and it's had great success in adding reserves and development opportunities for us. For 2011, we are expecting under our current plans to have 3.9 billion pounds of copper sales and 1.6 million ounces of gold and 73 million pounds of molybdenum. As always, our objective is to advance production. And as we've seen this quarter, there are times when we have that opportunity at Grasberg. This was an unusual quarter. We can't expect that every quarter, but if you look back at our history over a long period of time, we've been successful in meeting or beating our plans. And we're committed to trying to continue to do that. There's always risk and uncertainties in this business. And we dealt with those in the past, and will in the future. But that's our goal. Our outlook, based on these numbers and $1,400 gold and $15 molybdenum would give us a unit cost of just over $1 a pound, $8.3 billion of operating cash flows at $4.25 copper for the remainder of this year. That's after cash taxes and after the significant -- the cash interest that we have. Our interest is way down. Taxes are higher, though, obviously with what we're earning. And we have significant leveraged copper prices. We're continuing with our near-term estimate of $2.5 billion of capital. And we expect that our capital spending beyond 2011 will increase above our previous guidance, as we get board approval for the Cerro Verde expansion and other projects. Our quarterly sales outlook -- I mean our outlook for the next 3 years of sales, are presented on Slide 21. You can see increases beginning to come in on our copper production. The gold variation is strictly a function of mine sequencing at Grasberg. Volumes are higher when we're at the lower parts of the pits and lower when we're at the upper parts. We will be beginning by the end of this period to be moving towards the final phases of that mining at Grasberg. And as we approach the end of this mine life and stripping requirements are reduced, volumes will go up higher and the economics will be very attractive during that period. On a quarterly basis, we've made some adjustments to reflect what we've done in the first quarter here. We're ending up with similar production in the second and third quarter. We see an opportunity. And we have a lower fourth quarter estimate now, reflecting the fact that we accelerated some of the gold that we were going to produce then from Grasberg into the first quarter. And you can see the gold sales reflecting this mine sequencing issue that [indiscernible]. Our molybdenum business is performing strongly. For the year, our cash cost is presented on Slide 23, a very attractive situation given commodity prices. Obviously to have copper prices over $4 and cash costs of $1, it shows the margins that we have available to us. And even in the face of increasing -- certain increasing input costs, our cost management programs are working. On a modeled basis at $4 copper, our operating cash flows would be approaching $8 billion, $4.50 copper is $9 billion. So you can see our leverage there. Our sensitivities to our commodity prices and certain of our input costs are shown on Page 25, so you can adjust these for the different views that you might have on these revenue and cost elements. Capital expenditures, I mentioned we're keeping our guidance for 2011 at $2.5 billion. We are now looking at just over $2 billion for 2012. But that number and subsequent numbers are likely to be adjusted higher. We did take a step on the, as Kathleen mentioned, April 1 of redeeming of $1.1 billion senior note as an effective use of our cash. Our current average interest cost is just over 8%. Our ability to borrow now in the market is well below that. We're investment grade rated by all the agencies. We will have an opportunity to look at a callable note that's call kicks in early next year, the first half of next year. We don't have any particular target we're driving towards with debt. We've just been seeing these debt reductions as an opportunity, as an evaluation of how to use cash. We are committed to maintaining this strong balance sheet and our liquidity position, so that we can invest in these attractive growth projects. Current common dividend after we reinstated it in 2009 and increased it in 2010 is $1 a share. And our board has announced another supplemental dividend of $0.50 per share to be paid June 1. This is the second special supplemental dividend that our board has declared. And it will continue to review our financial policy on an ongoing basis. And with these commodity prices, the board will have the opportunity to consider further cash returns to shareholders. So that's the summary of our story. And we were very pleased to report these results to you, very proud of all of our team around the world, about how hard they're working and how effective their work is going. And with that, we'll be happy, operator, to turn the phone over for questions.