John Fawcett
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead
Thank you, Ellen, and good morning, everyone. We are off to a solid start this year with net income available to common shareholders of $119 million or $1.18 per common share as we continue to make progress towards our 11% return on tangible common equity target for the fourth quarter of this year. We achieved these solid results by executing on our strategy. We grew average loans and leases of our core business by 2% from the prior quarter and 7% from the year ago quarter. We continue to strong origination volumes in Commercial Banking, which grew 5% from the year ago quarter, driven by growth in Commercial Finance and Business Capital. We stayed disciplined in our credit underwriting. We remained focused on our operating expense initiatives while continuing to invest in technology to improve operating leverage over the longer term. We continue to look for opportunities to optimize our funding profile, and we've repurchased 180 million of common shares -- common stock below tangible book value for this quarter. With the business transformation completed and our financial statement is much simpler, we had no noteworthy items this quarter. However, given that prior periods were impacted by noteworthy items, I will refer to our comparative results from continuing operations, excluding noteworthy items, unless otherwise noted. I will now go into further detail on our financial results for the quarter. Turning to slide six of the presentation. Net finance revenue declined from the prior quarter as higher deposit costs in the current quarter and lower net operating lease income were partially offset by increase in revenues on our loans and investments. On slide seven, net finance margin was 3.20%, down 19 basis points from the prior quarter. The prior quarter included 3 basis points from elevated levels related to favorable usage collections in Rail as well as a special dividend from the Federal Home Loan Bank. In addition, we estimate that the lower day count in Q1 reduced margin by 2 to 3 basis points. The remaining decline this quarter was primarily driven by higher deposit rates, lower net yields on Rail operating leases and the impact of higher percentage of average cash and investment securities in average earning assets, which was partially offset by lower borrowing costs. As Ellen indicated, we experienced strong performance in our Savings Builder product, which was designed to attract long-term savers and increased non-maturity deposits, which we believe will result in longer relationships and better performance in this portion of the cycle. We increased the rate on the product to 2.45 early in January. And while it is currently one of the higher online savings rates in the market, it is lower than online term CDs and gives us more pricing flexibility over the cycle. With the Savings Builder performance, average total deposits increased 8% this quarter, well ahead of our expectations. As a result, the mix of average cash and investment securities increased to a higher than normal percent of total average earning assets, which we estimate resulted in almost an 8 basis-point drag on our margin. We’ll utilize these excess deposits to repay higher cost Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings towards the end of the quarter and we anticipate utilizing a portion of this liquidity to offset upcoming CD maturities next quarter. In addition, over the course of the next couple of quarters, we intend to deploy the excess cash as we continue to grow loans and leases. Loan yields remained relatively constant as the fourth quarter benefits from the increase in market rates in the fourth quarter of last year were offset by a reduction in day count and yields related fees. Lower net Rail operating lease revenue reduced margin by 3 basis points from continuing repricing pressure and the absence of favorable usage collections in the prior quarter. Higher deposit rates reduced margin by 16 basis points, reflecting the increase in the Direct Bank Savings Builder rate early in the quarter, and continued migration of our customers from products with lower rates. Borrowing costs benefited margin by 7 basis points as the decline from liability management actions taken last quarter was partially offset by an increase in Federal Home Loan Bank rates. Turning to slide eight, other non-interest income increased $5 million compared to the prior quarter and includes $6 million in property tax income related to the amount of estimated property taxes to be collected from customers with an offsetting charge in operating expenses. This change in financial presentation was a result of the adoption of a new lease accounting standard, and we currently estimate the impact in both property tax income and expenses will be $25 million to $30 million for 2019. Capital markets fees grew from low levels in the prior quarter and will vary depending on the level of activity and type of transactions. For example, recently, we've been originating more collateral backed loans, which generally provides for lower fee opportunities. Last quarter, we completed the sale of our private label MBS portfolio acquired in the OneWest acquisition, which had higher yields and higher risk ratings. As a result, going forward, the gains on the sale of investment securities are expected to be modest, more opportunistic, and dependent on market conditions. Turning to slide nine, operating expenses excluding intangible asset amortization, increased $18 million from the prior quarter, $14 million of the increase was seasonal from higher employee costs related to benefit restarts and the acceleration of cost from retirement-eligible employees. In addition, there was an estimated $9 million of operating expenses that resulted from the adoption of a new lease accounting standard, including $6 million that was offset in other non-interest income that I just mentioned. These increases were partially offset by lower professional fees and technology costs which can vary from quarter-to-quarter depending on the timing and progress of various initiatives. The efficiency ratio increased to 58%, reflecting elevated operating expenses, and we estimate a little over 100 basis points of the increase resulted from the adoption of the lease accounting changes. We remain committed to further reducing operating costs while also investing in our businesses. And we are laser-focused on achieving our target operating cost reduction of at least $50 million through 2020, as we highlighted last quarter. Slide 10 shows our consolidated average balance sheet. Average earning assets grew 5% from the prior quarter, most of which was from increase in interest-bearing cash and investments, resulting from strong deposit growth. Average loans and leases grew 1%, reflecting 2% growth in our core portfolio, partially offset by the one-off of the legacy consumer mortgage portfolio. Average interest bearing cash and investments increase about 250 basis points to 21% of average earning assets this quarter. The average duration of our investment securities book declined to little over two years from about three years as we repositioned some of our books to reflect the higher level of liquidity and the flatness of the yield curve. Slide 11 provides more detail on average loans and leases by division. Strong origination volume, particularly in Commercial Finance, and the equipment finance businesses within Business Capital, drove growth in our core portfolios. As Ellen mentioned, in Commercial Finance, while middle market activity slowed this quarter and continues to shift to non-banks, given the diversity of our business, we continue to see good collateral-based lending opportunities. In particular, communications and technology, power and energy, healthcare and various sub verticals within C&I experienced strong origination volume this quarter while a higher level of origination volume at the end of the year, as well as lower prepayment activity also contributed to the 4% average loan growth this quarter. In Business Capital, we continue to see strong growth across our equipment financing portfolios, which was mostly offset by seasonal reduction in the factoring business. The real estate finance portfolio was down this quarter as we remained disciplined in a highly competitive market. We continue to see good opportunities stemming from our strong relationships, deep industry knowledge and speed of execution. Our rail portfolio remained flat this quarter as new deliveries offset depreciation and our portfolio management activity. Utilization declined slightly to 97% but remains strong as leases repriced down 10% this quarter. We continue to see strengthening in the tank car market. And although new leases continue to reprice down, the gap has narrowed over the past year. Our freight cars continue to reprice near par. However, small covered hoppers used to transport sand and grain, are repricing down. Weakness in the sand market is due to the shift from northern white sand to local brand sand which we continue -- expect to continue. Weakness in grain is due to lower exports, which is being impacted by uncertainty and trade policies. We continue to expect lease renewals on the total fleet to reprice down 15% to 20% in 2019, but will vary quarter-to-quarter based on the amount and type of cars renewing. Slide 12 highlights our average funding mix, which reflects the trends I mentioned earlier. One additional item to note is that while Federal Home Loan Bank advances increased modestly during the quarter, period-end balances were down as we repaid almost $1.6 billion in February and March, which had an average rate of 2.80. Slide 13 illustrates the deposit mix by type and channel. Average deposits increased $2.4 billion from the prior quarter to $33.3 billion, reflecting growth in our online savings account deposits. We also closed four branches in the fourth quarter as part of our cost reduction initiatives, with the minimal reduction in branch deposits. The cost of deposits increased as the cumulative beta since the first rate hike of the current tightening cycle in December of 2015 increased to 31% from 23% last quarter. While prevailing market rates have flattened, we continue to expect the positive costs to rise over the next couple of quarters as deposit repricing cycles grow and customers migrate to higher savings rate products. Turning the capital on slide 14. In January, we communicated that we have received a non-objection from our regulators to repurchase upto $450 million of common stock through September 30, 2019. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately $180 million in common shares, consisting of 3.7 million shares at an average price of $49.16, which was 6% below tangible book value, ending the quarter with just 98 -- just under 98 million shares outstanding. For the second quarter, we have also increased our common dividend to $0.35 per share from $0.25 per common share, a 40% increase. This is our third increase since 2017, and we aspire over time to increase our payout ratio to approximately 30% to 40%, consistent with our regional bank peers. Despite loan growth and capital returns in excess earnings -- in excess of earnings, our common equity Tier 1 ratio at the end of the quarter remained at 12%, the result of regulatory and accounting changes that impacted the risk weighting of certain assets in our trajectory towards our target common equity Tier 1 ratio. Our regulatory rule changed the high definition of high volatility commercial real estate or HVCRE loans, which reduced the risk weighting on those loans from 150% to 100%. This change caused $1.15 billion decrease in risk-weighted assets, which we think better reflects the risk characteristics of these loans. Offsetting some of this reduction was an increase in risk-weighted assets of approximately $200 million, resulting from the adoption of a new lease accounting standard that required us to report on balance sheet to future liability for our leased facilities and equipment along with the corresponding asset. The net decrease in RWAs will mostly be offset next quarter with the expiration of the loss share agreement with the FDIC, which is expected to increase RWAs by approximately $800 million. The impact on our common equity Tier 1 ratio was an increase of 26 basis points, which will be mostly offset in the second quarter, resulting in a minimal net impact. We maintain our guidance of 11% common equity Tier 1 ratio by the end of this year. Slide 15 highlights our credit trends. The credit provision this quarter was $33 million, primarily driven by net charge-offs of $34 million or 43 basis points, which was within our guidance range. Over the past three quarters, net charges-offs had been at the low end or below our guidance level. The higher net charge-offs this quarter were primarily driven by increase in Commercial Finance, most of which were previously reserved for, and small business solutions within Business Capital. Non-accrual loans increased this quarter but still remained below 1% of total loans. Reserves declined slightly to 1.56% of total loans, and 1.87% for commercial banking, reflecting continued better risk ratings under originations and the reduction of loans with higher reserves. The broad credit environment remains stable and new business originations continue to come in at better risk ratings than the overall risk rating of the performing portfolio. Our reserves remain strong and continue to reflect more than 4 times the last 12 months net charge-offs. Slide 16 highlights our key performance metrics, reflecting the trends we just discussed. Our return on tangible common equity from continuing operations was 9.7%, down from the prior quarter, reflecting elevated seasonal operating expenses in the current quarter. If you normalize for the semiannual preferred dividend that is paid in the second and fourth quarters, our return on tangible common equity would have been 9.3%. As Ellen indicated, we remain committed to continuing to improve our returns and are focused on achieving a return on tangible common equity of 11% in the fourth quarter of 2019 and at least 12% by the fourth quarter of 2020. Further improvements will come from capital optimization, revenue growth in our core businesses, and reductions in operating expenses. Page 17 highlights our outlook for the second quarter. We continue to expect low single digit quarterly growth in our core portfolio and slightly lower growth in a total portfolio reflecting the run-off of legacy consumer mortgage portfolio. Net finance margin is expected to be in the low to middle area of our target range due to continued headwinds from a higher mix of cash and investments as it’ll take a couple of quarters to work through the excess liquidity. We also expect higher deposit costs reflecting a full quarter impact from the deposit growth and continued migration of our depositors into higher rate products. However, these costs will be partially offset by lower borrowing costs from the Federal Home Loan Bank debt we repaid towards the end of the quarter. Finally, downward pricing on the rail book will also continue to pressure margin. We expect operating expenses to decline from elevated seasonal compensation and benefit costs in the first quarter, but continue to reflect the lease accounting changes. We have also provided guidance for the full-year to reflect the impact from the lease accounting changes. We continue to expect operating leases for 2019, excluding intangibles and the impact of lease accounting changes, to decline approximately 3% from the 2018 level of approximately 1.050 [ph] billion. However, for modeling purposes, we now include our full-year operating expense guidance, our expectation of 1% to 2% increase, including the impact of lease accounting changes. The net efficiency ratio is expected to remain in the mid to high 50% area next quarter, reflecting the trends I just mentioned, and including the impact of lease accounting changes. Credit metrics and the effective tax rate absent any discrete items are expected to be consistent with our full-year outlook. And with that, I will turn the call back to Ellen.