Steve Gunby
Analyst · Sidoti. Please go ahead
Thank you, Mollie. Good morning everyone and thank you all for joining us. Those are the formalities. Let me start with some particular informalities, and say I hope you all got a chance to see the Washington Nationals last night. As Mollie says, I’m not allowed to spend much time on this, I will point out to those of you who are not a baseball fan that the last time the Washington had a team in the World Series was 1933. So, those of us who are baseball fans in Washington are somewhat excited, and since that’s the last I’m allowed to say I will point out there is a Q&A session, so anybody who is a Nationals fan and wants to comment during that Q&A session, feel free. Houston fans are not allowed. What Mollie does want me to talk about today instead of the Nationals is instead of their incredible run is our incredible run, our incredible run over the last few quarters, but importantly our incredible run over the last few years and what it could mean for the future. So, let me spend a little bit of time on both of those topics. In terms of our run, I assume most of us have seen this quarter’s financial results, which were once again extraordinary. The third quarter revenues increased 16% year-over-year, and that’s compared to what was already a strong third quarter performance a year ago, and that revenue growth translated into terrific earnings growth for the company as well with GAAP EPS of $1.59 and adjusted EPS of $1.63. So, it was an extraordinary quarter and importantly it was the ninth extraordinary quarter in a row. Now most of you know, in every term going forward, I always take every opportunity I can to underscore that quarterly results aren’t good measures. They’re not perfect measures of the underlying strength of the company and not particularly good indicators of the future. I’m sure you’ve heard me say, “don’t take those quarter and multiply by four.” And that’s because any given quarter’s results can be substantially affected either negatively or positively by short-term factors. And I’ve also talked about the fact that, though I think this company is terrific, and I’ll come back to this and we are moving in any given quarter or two, we can be down. So I recently encountered a skeptic who had heard me say this, and that skeptic says, “Steve, you keep saying that, but is it really true? I mean you’ve had eight quarters in a row.” At that time it was a eight quarters in a row, now it’s nine of terrific results. There’s no volatility in your business essentially suggesting that we’re going to grow without hiccups straight to the sky. That question worried me, because I believe it misses the core dynamics of this business, and what’s necessary to build an institution and create lasting shareholder value and lasting value for our clients and our people over time. So, let me spend the rest of my time together with you not elaborating on the quarter but to share a little bit longer articulation of my beliefs. And what I want to do is make three points. First, notwithstanding what I’m going to say about quarters, please understand I am extraordinarily bullish about where we can take this company over the next years. In fact, I’m at least as bullish about where we can take this company over the next five years as I have been over the last five years. So, I am bullish about the medium and long-term trajectory of this company. The second point is, having said that, there is always a risk of down quarters in this company. In fact, there’s always a risk of multiple down quarters, and I think it’s important for investors to know that fact. In my view, I’ll talk about it a little later. I also believe it’s important for investors to not be too worried about short-term results in quarters. Third, I think it’s important to be clear that driving long-term performance requires that we invest in headcount even in the face of down quarters and that is something we’ve done and intend to do going forward. But let me elaborate a bit on each of those points. First of all, in terms of the medium and long term, I believe that great professional services firms over any medium-term firm -- any medium-term period control their own destiny. If a great professional services firm -- if we aren’t growing over any medium-term period, it is not the markets, it is not external factors, it’s us. Over any medium-term period, the future of our firm of any great professional services firm isn’t affected by these factors like whether you win or lose a couple big jobs, whether you realize success fees in a quarter or not, or whether the tax rate is higher or lower. Over any multi-year period, great professional services performance, our performance is dictated by the things we can control; things like figuring out who your great professionals are, making sure they feel supported and what motivates them, investing behind them, thinking about the highest leverage stressful situations your clients are facing, how you can actually be of help and investing to make sure you are the best person to actually make a difference for those clients in those situations, figuring out the capabilities you can add, the key adjacency that you can go into that make a difference for your clients, and where you have success communicating to the marketplace that you’ve been able to collaborate with clients and make a big difference, and so people who are interested in having that skill at their disposal know that they can call you. Those are not rocket science points or some others I could have mentioned. But my experience is, if you drive those core factors, you change your trajectory regardless of external market issues. You win the largest brand building assignments that both reinforce your current relationships and attract new clients. You put people in positions where their careers can grow, they can develop, they are excited. You’re in a position to promote them. You can invest behind them, and your company gets into a virtuous loop where you’re winning the biggest jobs, your reputation is growing, you are supporting great professionals in work they love doing, and you thereby are attracting great people, you’re promoting them, all of which allows you to have great people with attitudes and capabilities that allow you to win the big jobs that starts the virtuous loop. So that is the objective we have had to get ourselves into that virtuous loop, and I believe that’s what’s been happening in this company over the last five years. And important, I believe, if we continue on this path, it will lead to sustained major success going forward. That’s point one. I hope nobody walked away from that without a sense that I’m bullish about the future. Point two, having said that, it does not mean there can’t be short-term segments along the way. One can of course, have multiple large engagements concluding the same quarter. Success fees can flip from one quarter another. You can have particular year where you don’t have many success fees. You can lose or be conflicted out of the biggest jobs in a quarter. You can hire a new team or set of teams that are fabulous. And you say wait a second, hiring a team is fabulous, sounds like a good thing, but it’s important to realize that in professional services almost all new teams you hire are hits to EBITDA for the first 12 months to 18 months. When you’re hiring great people at the senior level, you’re hiring them with a view that they’re going to be a benefit to the vibrancy of your firm, to the teaming, to your P&L in two or three years. But they’re almost always a cost to your P&L in that first year and of course although we’ve all had enormous amount of success with our bets, any given bet can fall short of expectations. So there are a lot of short-term factors that can have a reasonable, negative impact on your short-term revenue and in the face of a relatively fixed cost structure can have an even more significant impact on EPS. Point three, a third port paradoxically, but important, those short-term factors can be exacerbated if one is, as we are committed to doing the right things for the long term. If we are investing for the future, we cannot hire based on whether we happen to have capacity in a given quarter. You have to hire based on the fact that we don’t hire junior people now, great junior people now. We want a great mid-level people in three or four years and we don’t hire great mid-level people now, we won’t have enough people to get promoted and leave the headline engagements in three and five and six years. If one is committed, if we are committed to building a business and staying in that virtuous loop, we have to treat many things that the accountants view as expenses, as investments and continue to do them in the face of slow quarters. So, I believe that slow quarters will happen at some point and I know that if we see the right opportunities in those quarters, we will take actions even if they worsen the short-term results. Now that may perhaps sound aggressive, but it’s important to realize that’s actually how we’ve been running the business over the last five years. You step back for a second, as I think most of you know, we’ve created a lot of shareholder wealth over the last five years. But think about it, we’ve obviously had bad quarters during that time as well and in fact, if you recall we had four bad quarters in a row. You can look at it. It’s the second half of 2016 and the first half of 2017. Importantly, during those quarters we continued to invest and we invested in ways that actually exacerbated some of the difficult financials in that quarter. If you recall, for example, in the beginning of 2017, after three difficult quarters in Corp Fin, we were still hiring significant amount of talent in corp fin because A+ talent is scarce in that market and we found A+ talent was available. And we of course had confidence that corp fin was positioned to be a key contributor to the growth of this company, the vibrancy and the value of the firm. And similarly we acquired CDG into CF during that period not because we were short in capacity, but because talent like CDG is rare and we just had the opportunity to land that talent during what happened to be a slow period. The key point, the run we’ve had over the last three years with corp fin growing over 40% and its adjusted EBITDA going over 60%, never could have happened if we hadn’t been willing to make those investments during the down quarters. And we’ve done the same in other segments. For example, in the midst of the couple of tough quarters for FLC, we invested behind a whole new cyber team that merged with some existing talent and created a business that today is soaring. So what’s the overall point? I don’t believe anyone should take the last nine quarters and say, nothing can ever go wrong in the short period of time for this company. We can, and we almost certainly will, have bad quarters and maybe three or four bad quarters in a row. Secondly, I think it’s important for people to understand that our intent is that, if we see opportunities to invest in great people during tough times, as we have in the past, we will continue to do so, even if it worsens our short-term results. But what I also hope people understand is that if we do this, as we have over the last five years, we will continue to create an environment that is incredible, an environment that attracts superb professionals, that allows them to come into their own, do great works for their clients, mentor other people, which in turn builds our reputation and the market grows, our market share creates enormous value for our clients, for our people, and yes, sustained value for our shareholders. So that is our vision and our commitment. And it’s one that I for one, and I know the entire management team is excited about. So with that, Ajay, why don’t you tell a little bit more about the quarter?