Mark Ashby
Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open
Thanks, Stuart, and good afternoon, everybody. First up, I’m going to talk for a couple of slides about the Grupo restatement. Seeing as it was such a big issue it’s worthwhile just giving you some background or maybe some clarification on the three impacts that it has had and I’ll cover that on Slide 7 and on Slide 8. If I start with Slide 7 on the interest spread, the previous process was to recognize the revenue over the term of the loan. So if you had a loan that was for two years, you would recognize the revenue on that loan each month for the 24 months. What we’ve found is that the effective interest method is more appropriate and the 24 months in terms of contracted loan period could be as long as 30 months in terms of actual cash received period. As a result, we’ve been through all the line portfolio and we’ve averaged them on a 12 month, 24 month, 36 month, or 48 month loan basis. And now spread -- respread the revenue from those loans across the effective interest period, what you saw from that was actually a reduction in interest income from when the loan was originated and commenced, and then spread out over a longer period of time. So you would see that revenue flow over longer period of time, which meant that by the time the loan start to stack, you will see an increase in revenue on an accounting basis flow through. Advantage of this is that it better represents the cash flow of the collection period of the line period. So it gives us a better visibility from an accounting and reporting perspective on what that actually means in terms of running the business from a cash flow. The bad debt reserving was another key change. This most significant change is to reserve a 100% of a loan outstanding where no payment is received within a consecutive 180 day period. If we do receive payments on those loans subsequent which we do, we use the cost recovery method in those payments are subsequently received and recorded initially against the bad debt expense than any average and continuing revenue is then applied to the interest revenue line of the P&L. That’s a significant change and you can’t say as we get into the Grupo numbers that if you do have a couple of the conveners, a couple of the agencies that slip into a 180 days which can happen for various reasons, then we reserve a 100% on what I would say is quite a conservative basis. As we start to collect those, if and when, then that is part of the operational efficiency that we need to have clear focus on what Stuart -- part of what Stuart was referring to early on. The asset sales, it’s a little bit of a nuance. If you go back, we have the asset sales in FY14 and Q1 FY15, the effect was to reverse those asset sales and keeps the loans on book. So the asset sales of the portfolio we’ve made through the trust, those trust are now consolidated back into our books, so we get the revenue effect. We also get bad debt effect on the -- under the policies that I’ve outlined above and in addition to that we get the interest expense and the liability that happens to be sitting out there. So they -- those three items have changed the profile of the Grupo business for us. Not necessarily for bad reasons, it really is does give us better visibility to match some of the cash requirements of the business to the way we report. By way of reference, if I move to Slide 8, and particularly if you look at the top chart is the Grupo Finmart net loan balance restated versus original. It’s all in U.S dollars. If you look at FY14 Q2, you see that the balances were roughly the same. If you move forward to Q3, Q4, and Q1 FY15, you see the impact of the consolidation of the trust back into that numbers. So we now have a higher balance to start to generate some revenue from. So you can see that. The original net line balance was declining as we sold off the loans and now we have been restated back up to that level. So that drives interest income as does the interest spread. And that is really reflected in the lower part chart there, which is the Grupo Finmart interest income restated versus original. And if you look again from around Q3 of FY14 and just have a look at Q3, Q4, ’14 and Q1 ’15, you can start to see a significant departure in revenue recognition compared to what was in the past. Obviously, we hadn’t published Q2, Q3, or Q4, so there is no original loan revenue to compare to. But you can see the growth in interest income partly because we have the trust consolidated and partly now because of interest spread starting to compound on top of each other as it grows coming forward. If I move on to -- into Slide 9, what you’re going to see over the next few charts really reflects a lot of what Stuart introduced before in terms of the themes covering impacts of cleaning out inventory focused on driving PLO growth, particularly as Stuart mentioned since Joe has been on board. Restructuring expenses that we called out on July 29, that will be commencing to incur, but we’ve split it out across each of the operating unit, so that you can try and get an idea of what the normalized numbers look like. So I will start to talk about that. From a total perspective and a continuing operations basis, overall revenue was down 1%. Net revenue was down 3% and that get really reflects the initiatives to clean out aged inventory and implementing -- implementation of the tightened reserving policies in Grupo and the targeted reduction in scrap volume where scrapping was wound back deliberately to make sure that the we had appropriate inventory to be able to sell the customers at the right point in time. Expenses in this total chart show an increase of about 13% which is on $50 million, but really it does include nearly $66 million worth of restructuring in payment and other discrete items which I'll touch on a little bit further into the presentation. The EBIT numbers I will cover in terms of each of the operating unit contributions in future charts. If we have a quick look at interest expense, if we look at the Grupo interest expense that really was due to higher average debt for the year and that was supporting predominantly originations and also the operating costs of the business. The increase in corporate interest cost is predominantly from the increase amortization of the debt premium associated with the convertible notes that were raised in the previous financial year. So that's the single biggest driver. So that really is the summary of the [indiscernible] year. On Page 10, we look at the total restructuring charges and other discrete items. Now these are attributable to both continuing and discontinued ops, but just to give you a wholesome picture of what we saw. The cost of USFS, the U.S Financial Services exit, you can see it was in total was about $38.4 million. That covered the CFPB agreement which we announced a month or so ago of $10.5 million and the rest covered the severance lease exit costs and goodwill write-off. There are still some of those charges coming into Q1 and we would expect -- and that's on a discontinued ops basis, but we would still expect another $2 million to $3 million flowing through into Q1. The second point to do with business rationalization costs of $32.6 million, that does include restructuring and have a discrete items and some of the key drivers of that the pawn store closure costs, some impairments to run the underperforming assets, legacy IT, asset write-offs, and we went through a very rigorous process that Stuart touched on earlier about determining which stores to close, whether there are -- whether we thought that they’re currently achieving acceptable financial returns or could in the future. There was an impairment we put through on the Cash Converters Australia investment of $29.2 million. That reflects the movement in the share price and currency movements where the Australian dollar depreciated against the U.S dollar. Restatement expenses, we used the word estimate in there $4.1 million, that wasn’t -- clearly wasn’t a cheap exercise and you have to involve a lot of external parties including two groups of auditors and a couple of other accounting firms. Everyone had a seat at the table. And then there was the clearance -- the clean up of the Cash Genie U.K. Regulatory Compliance and that was another $4 million in it. In terms of restructuring expenses, on a continuing operations basis, again we think there is another $2 million to $3 million coming through as we just wrap up the first quarter and we will finalize that over the coming weeks. Slide 11 to give you a normalized view of continuing operations and by normalized what we have done is we have taken out the discrete items that I referred to the restructuring charges and put a constant currency view on the continuing operations. So clearly that affects Grupo and affects the Mexican pawn operations which is the bulk of that. The net revenue on a normalized basis actually increased by 2% for the year and net revenue increased by 1% and you will notice that the U.S pawn was the area where the net revenue did not increased, actually decreased by 5%. And we'll touch on that a little bit later on. Again, the gap between the 2% and the 1% does reflect in each of these for the margin impact of clearing out all the inventory in particular. Other expenses -- sorry, corporate expenses sitting at minus 7% for the year, and which was down $5 million. The other expense line is the CCV profit that we take as a portion of their profit into our books or loss. It was a profit in ’14, it was a loss in ’16 -- sorry in ’15. So that’s what that prefers to. If I jump down again to the bottom line on a normalized basis, we’re looking at loss of $23 million compared to $8 million and you will see where that comes from as we go through the next couple of charts. As we indicated a little while back, we had planned to move to more effective segment reporting to reflect the way the business is actually managed and you would have seen that in the 10-K and this is a snapshot of each of those operating units. The normal -- these are normalized numbers, so again the -- for the U.S pawn, we just take that restructuring charges and other discrete items and we could have it as a part of the reconciliation in the back. We have a chart that takes you from GAAP to non-GAAP. In total, the revenues were down 4%. The PSC revenues were down 1% for the year, but we did see a shift in trend, particularly we got from Q3 to Q4 and I will touch on that on the next slide, but we’re pleased to say that we’re seeing continued improvements in PLO growth and PSC revenues as a result. Merchandise sales -- most merchandise sales were up by 3%. That really does and you can thus reflect the clearance of aged inventory. The merchandise margin went from 37% to 35% and that has a negative impact clearly on the business for the year. Scrap sales had a significant impact in revenue. And as I mentioned earlier, it was a direct result of conscious decisions to back off scrapping inventory that could otherwise be sold to customers and generate more appropriate revenue, particularly once we start to deal with the aged inventory levels out there. So overall, that gave us a net revenue reduction of 5%. Expenses were basically flat. And contribution level which is referred to as EBITDA was $92 million for the year against $113 million last year. The next chart, Page 13, calls out a couple of key indicators for the business. The U.S pawn line balance in the top left hand corner, obviously that’s a key driver of that revenue structure and you can see the change in trend in terms of growth over the last two quarters of the year. At the end of the year, the PLO balance was minus 6%. We had been minus 11% earlier on in the year and the trend have reduced on a same-store basis we’re growing that trend was exactly the same. So we’re moving in a positive direction and that trend continued into the first quarter. The pawn revenue that follows the trend of the PLO and again we’re pleased with the direction that’s heading. The pawn store count, you can see over the course of the year that we made some acquisitions, a couple of Denovo’s early in the year, but we also had closures. I'd touch on that earlier about the closures of the stores in September as a result of the them being underperforming, although today we didn’t see that could hit financial -- hit all financial hurdles. The bottom three charts really reflect the impact of trying to clean out inventory. So this shows -- the first chart shows the sales volume last year versus this year while the sales volume is higher. You can look at the merchandise margin and see for the first three quarters were significantly lower. It wasn’t until Q4 we saw that across and that is a reflection on the fact that if you look at the right hand column, the aged inventory started to reduce to acceptable levels and now we think that the pressure on the merchandise margin will be alleviated coming into FY16. The next page, which is 14, it’s a similar theme in terms of margins, in terms of cleaning out inventory, a similar theme in many aspects of the restructuring the business. Although on a constant currency ignoring restructuring costs and other discrete items to give you a view of what’s happening in Mexico, and it’s a positive story all the way down. We’ve seen growth in overall revenues. We’ve seen growth in PLO. We’ve seen growth in merchandise sales. Again, a contraction in merchandise margin from cleaning out the old inventory, our scrap sale not quite as bigger impact in Mexico. So on the end result we saw an increase of 15.3% on net revenue. Total expenses were basically flat and at an EBIT level we sort of turnaround from a contribution of minus $4 million last year to a positive $3 million in FY15. Page 15 has the same indicators that we used for the U.S pawn. And you can see the growth in the top left hand corner in the pawn line balance and which is being quite consistent across the course of the year. There was no new stores. As a matter of fact, in Q4, we closed nine stores towards the end of the quarter. The PSC revenue also increased over the quarter -- over consistently from Q2, Q3, Q4. The impact of clearing inventory is shown in the bottom three charts as well. And you can say the Mexico pawn sales were consistently above last year, but we did have the gross margin significantly impacted across the first three quarters and it wasn't until Q4 that we started to see the -- that margin start to improve and that’s a percent of sale. That again is a direct reflection on the reduction in aged inventory and the chart in the bottom right actually shows that quite starkly in terms of the improvement that we made. I will just have a quick sip of water. Thank you. Okay. Grupo Finmart, the -- a couple of callouts in terms of the performance of Grupo Finmart, obviously the profit before tax is not an outcome, but we like to maintain. But we’ve seen a few things occur. First of all, obviously, our ownership went up from 76% to 98% over the last quarter of the year. I think the interest income continues to grow and that's driven by some strong growth in originations about 24% on last year. But you also will note that the bad debt expense increased from $20 million to $31 million for the year. And that’s a significant increase and as a percentage that grew faster than our interest income. A lot of that was in Q4 and that is driven predominantly by the impact of the 190 day policy that we have. So clearly the opportunity to recover some of that money is there and that comes from the focus that Stuart spoke about earlier which is somewhat reflected in the increase and the expenses, which is the investment in the infrastructure to put appropriate infrastructure implies to be able to start to manage the business to the levels that we do expect going forward. We talked -- if you move to chart 17, not a lot to say about this, but this is just the summary on the U.S Financial Services, which is now close very pleasingly, it occurred on time and it occurred under our initial budget that we anticipated. There were some good negotiations and great collection efforts that put us in a better position. I don't plan to go through this in any detail, but just to give you a snapshot of what it look like compared to last year. Finally, just a couple of points on the balance sheet. Continuing the themes that have been talking about earlier, we’re starting to see the growth in the PLO on a constant currency basis as we adjust the impact of depreciation of peso, plus we’re seeing it across the United States, we’re starting to see that growth at a level that we are -- I won’t say we’re happy with, but continue in the direction that we like to see. Inventory cleanout was a significant focus for the year. I've touched on that across each of the business units. Aged inventories being flushed into a 11% of growth compared to 20% a year prior. Aged general merchandise is now down to 5% of gross general merchandise. General merchandise turns, improve up to 2.8 times in U.S pawn and 2.4 times in Mexico, which was a significant improvement in Mexico, which is a 56% improvement. Aged jewelry reduced to 15% of gross inventory which is down from 38% last year. So that’s a significant reduction again. So all that does help in terms of easing gross margin pressure coming into next year. The other item and we touched on Grupo and its part of the restatement is we’ve a very robust bad debt reserving provision practices in place. The 190 days it’s pretty brutal, and but it does give focus to the business. We think the revenue recognition is now more appropriate in terms of recognizing the cash cycle. But also it does each of those gives opportunity for the business. If we can improve the time to collect the whole loan that starts to affect profitability quickly, same is recovering your bad debt. On particular on the 190 days as we all as you focus on general reserving ahead of payroll. I won’t take much time on those, but they are key components of trying to draw profitability for Grupo. So that’s a snapshot of the year. Hopefully it gives you a little bit more color than trying to scroll through the 10-K and I will hand back to Stuart.