Earnings Labs

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 8, 2018

$24.08

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q4 2017 National Vision Holdings Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded for replay purposes. It is now my pleasure to hand the conference over to Sir David Mann, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

David Mann

Analyst

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to National Vision's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2017 Earnings Call. Joining me on the call today are Reade Fahs, Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Moore, Chief Financial Officer. Jeff McAllister, our Chief Operating Officer, is also on the call and will be available during the question-and-answer portion of the call. Our earnings release issued this morning and the supplemental presentation, which will be referenced during the call, are both available on the investors section of our website, nationalvision.com. In addition, a replay of this morning's conference call will be available later today. The replay number as well as access code can be found in the earnings release. A replay of the audio webcast will also be archived on the investor section of our website. Before we begin, let me remind you, our earnings release and today's presentation include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The release and today's presentation also includes certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of these measures are included in our release and the supplemental presentation, which can be found on our website. We also would like to draw your attention to Slide 2 in today's presentation for additional information about forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. In addition, from time to time, National Vision expects to provide certain supplemental materials or presentations for investor reference on our Investor section of our website. Turning to Slide 3. On today's call, Reade will discuss some of our recent business highlights. Patrick will then give an in-depth review of our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2017 financial performance as well as details of our fiscal 2018 outlook. Following these prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. Now let me turn the call over to Reade.

L. Fahs

Analyst

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone I know many of you are slogging through some pretty difficult weather up there in the Northeast. I hear that some of you are even listening on generators and some without Internet. We appreciate the extra efforts you're going through to be with us this morning. If you turn then to Slide 4, I'll take you through Q4 highlights. 2017 was a record year for National Vision. We ended the year healthy, with Q4 reflecting another solid quarter for us. Q4 was our 64th consecutive quarter of positive comparable store sales growth, a streak that began 16 years ago when many members of our current management team started at National Vision. We take a lot of pride in the consistency of this track record. Adjusted comparable store sales growth in Q4 was up 10.4%. The comp growth was led by strong performance at both America's Best and Eyeglass World, with increases of nearly 12% at both of these brands as well as positive comps at our legacy and host brand. Importantly, our comps were driven by increases in customer transactions. Another sign of customer satisfaction is Net Promoter Scores, which we track closely. In Q4, we posted record scores for the company and for the America's Best brand. We opened 17 stores in Q4, which resulted in 76 new stores open for the year, including our 1,000th store in October. The unit growth and comparable store sales growth combined to drive a 16.1% increase in revenue. Adjusted EBITDA increased 19.4%. Solid leverage of our fixed cost base was partially offset by higher optometrist-related compensation. Turning to Slide 5. Our business continues to demonstrate consistency in store performance and comp store sales gains. The graph highlights our 64 consecutive quarters of comparable store sales growth…

Patrick Moore

Analyst

Thank you, Reade, and good morning, everyone. I'll be starting my remarks on Slide 8. As Reade noted, our business continued to perform very well in the fourth quarter, and we are extremely pleased with our results. The 2 fundamental revenue drivers of our business are new store growth and comparable store sales growth. During the quarter, we added 17 new stores, all in our America's Best brand. For the year, we opened 76 stores and closed 6 locations, which represents 7.4% increase in stores, with the openings almost entirely in our America's Best and Eyeglass World brands. Regarding the performance of new stores, we have noted that these stores have taken approximately 3 to 5 years to mature. While we do not disclose vintage-specific results, I do want to provide some color on the 2017 business performance. As we compare multiyear results for stores opened at least 6 months, sales in our 2017 vintage are performing near the top of the historical range. We would note that most of these stores are now going through their first peak seasonality period when refreshed insurance benefits and tax refunds drive customer traffic to heightened levels. The chart of adjusted comparable store sales growth presents our comps calculated on a cash basis and highlights the strong performance in the quarter. Same-store sales growth increased 10.4% versus the 7% increase in the fourth quarter of last year. As Reade mentioned, this comp growth was driven predominantly by an increase in customer transactions. Comps also benefited from hurricane-related sales recovery in the quarter. During the fourth quarter, we generated positive comps in all 5 brands. America's Best led the way with strong performance of 11.8% on top of 10.4% in the fourth quarter of 2016. For the year, comps at America's Best were 10.1%,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from the line of Robbie Ohmes with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Robert Ohmes

Analyst

Actually, 2 questions. First, Reade, I was hoping -- and I apologize if you covered this in the beginning. I unfortunately got on slightly late. But the announced Luxottica-Essilor merger, I was hoping you could remind us the exposure you have with each and sort of how National Vision is thinking about that merger. And then just a follow-up question would be just some update on how the California stores are doing versus your expectations.

L. Fahs

Analyst

Great. Thank you, Robbie, and no, I didn't cover either of those before you got on. All I did was thank people for slogging through the bad weather to be on the call at all. So thank you for that. So Luxottica-Essilor, there was big news earlier -- or was it this week or late last -- it was late last week where both the FTC and the European Union blessed the merger. So those were, of course, 2 big milestones for that. I understand there's still 1 or 2 countries out there of note that have yet to do that, and they're going to wait to get those blessings before they finalize. We have, since the time they announced this, believed that the deal would get approved by the major regulatory bodies. And so our planning assumption is that, in the second quarter, there will probably be some sort of -- assuming all goes well with those remaining countries, that they would probably announce that the merger has gone through. We have had strong long-term relationships with both Luxottica and Essilor. We are a company of strong long-term relationships. Both have been good partners with us for a great many years. We are -- we believe we're one of their larger and faster-growing customers, and we don't see the merger changing the nature of our relationship with them, and they've sort of sent us that vibe also. We think that we'd be an important part of the future of the merged companies as we've been an important part of each of the companies when they were separate. So we aren't seeing any new news here other than it's progressing along through the various regulatory bodies as we anticipated, and we continue to believe it will happen and aren't seeing that as being a major change to our lives. In terms of California, for competitive reasons, we don't discuss specific markets, but we do talk about vintages, and our 2017 vintage of new stores is performing near the top of historical ramps. I do have to point out that for a great many of those stores, they didn't exist during Q1. They were opened throughout the year. We're continuing to open stores in L.A. and in San Francisco. In 2018, we think there are lots of potential of customers in both those markets.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Matt Fassler with Goldman Sachs.

Matthew Fassler

Analyst

I've got 2 quick questions. The first relates to EGW. I know, Patrick, that you spoke about the recovery from the hurricane dynamic in Florida. Still, it was a pretty big comp number that you saw from that business. Any sense as to whether the tweaking of the marketing formula there is poised to unleash a better comp trajectory more similar to what you've been able to get at America's Best?

L. Fahs

Analyst

Yes, I'll take that first one, Matt. So the -- yes, the hurricane recovery was part of EGW's results there, and EGW's results were quite strong. So -- and when we look at sort of the overall as a company, when we look at the 2 quarters together, we think it's sort of we got what we should have over the 2 quarters there. The new Eyeglass World marketing launched earlier this year -- or launched in January, and sort of we're initially encouraged. We also have sort of new leadership who's been in place, I think it's about 6 months there. And I can tell you the execution is getting ever better. So we're continuing to be optimistic about Eyeglass World and its future. And we like the momentum.

Matthew Fassler

Analyst

That's great. And then one quick follow-up. I think this one will probably be for Patrick. So as we look at adjustments to get to the adjusted EBITDA numbers for next year, I'm not sure how willing you are to itemize some of these. But most notably, preopening, if you have a sense of it. And also stock comp, if you can get visibility on that number this early in the year just as we think about the mapping between reported and adjusted numbers on those bases.

Patrick Moore

Analyst

Yes, I probably can't go to that degree of granularity. I would say, Matt, that the store preopening will probably be fairly similar to what we've seen in the past. In terms of the stock comp, there's just too many factors involved in that. And I'd hate to give you bad advice at this point, so I just -- I'll hold off on going granular there.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citi.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst · Citi.

I think you expected the timing of Christmas and New Year's this past year, this past quarter, to be a negative for you. I'm just curious if it didn't play out that way and if you saw some sort of benefit from the timing of that in the first quarter. And then also curious if you've seen any changes to the competitive landscape. Any new threats? And I'm curious how you would characterize the pricing environment out there right now.

L. Fahs

Analyst · Citi.

Let me take the competitive one first. Not a lot has changed since we were on the roadshow or since our last call. We believe we're continuing to gain share. We don't think there's been any major changes in the pricing competitiveness overall, which again favors us because we're the low-cost provider. And we're still happy that we're in strip centers. We're still happy to have employed doctors, and are happy to have such an efficient lab network and a lot of private-label emphasis in some of our products. So nothing of note in the competitive environment that changes much there.

Patrick Moore

Analyst · Citi.

And then in terms of the last week, we did call out on our third quarter earnings release call that we expected to feel about a day of less impact there. And I would say, I really don't want to get into talking about weekly results too often, but we really kind of got what we expected there within reason. So what we guided for, we essentially got.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst · Citi.

Just one follow-up. You had mentioned a higher mix of stores in new markets versus existing, and I'm curious if that's a change versus what you were thinking just a few months ago, or if you had always planned it that way.

L. Fahs

Analyst · Citi.

[indiscernible] an ongoing gradual shift, we've always historically sort of filled out existing markets and moved on to new markets. And we have new markets, not a large -- not a significant change versus our planning before.

Patrick Moore

Analyst · Citi.

Yes, I would add, our launch into the West Coast this year skewed a lot of our openings to "new markets." As we've discussed earlier, we'll be moving into the Northeast as well to continue our store footprint there. So if you put those in the equation and probably last year and this year and maybe next year, we may be a little higher skewed towards new. But I would expect that to be fairly balanced beyond a period of West Coast and Northeast build out. Yes.

L. Fahs

Analyst · Citi.

[indiscernible] as we realized how many analysts need to save money on their glasses, so maybe I'm paying more a little bit more attention to the New York market.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Simon (sic) [ Simeon ] Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Simeon Gutman. Sorry about the background noise. A quick question on the next year's comp outlook, and I appreciate the conservatism. I just wanted to confirm, I mean, there's nothing that you expect different from the environment or from your share-taking ability. And I ask given that you had -- you've delivered on tough comparisons in the past and then you have the rollout of national advertising, which typically is a positive for consumer-oriented businesses. So just how do you put those into context and just making sure there isn't anything exogenous in that 3% to 5%.

Patrick Moore

Analyst

Sure, Simon (sic) [ Simeon ] . This is Patrick. I'll take the question. Essentially, we were taking what we believe is a prudent and responsible approach to guidance, especially this early in the year. We've got a high bar for multiyear comparisons. I mentioned earlier that AB is -- hit at least 9.5% for the last 3 years. So we think this is a reasonable approach. From my perspective, this allows us to put early year guardrails around cost. Now everyone here, associates, managers, executive leadership, are all incented to beat the plan and beat the objectives. So we're excited to do that. And I would just simply say, to the degree that we're able to deliver better than expectation performance, we would see reasonable flow-through into the P&L, and you could probably look at our segment margins, Simon (sic) [ Simeon ], and assume that, that was a good floor in terms of flow-through.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

And your comments about, I think, the start of the year and that you still have a lot of this quarter ahead and it's an important season. Just to clarify, there isn't anything unusual that you've seen in the beginning part, meaning that gives you pause or even optimism about it. I don't know to the extent you care to talk about that.

Patrick Moore

Analyst

We're not going to be super granular on a quarter-to-quarter trend. We -- I gave you a couple of data points on costs that we're expecting. Beyond that, we're looking at 3 Q weeks, as I mentioned. And we're ready to go, we just have to see exactly how they play out and hope for less nor'easters. So I know there's nothing further to share there in terms of expectations.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Okay. And then my one follow-up is on incremental margins. We're trying to back into -- we look at this for any company, into the following year, what's sort of implied in the model. And I guess there are some adjustments and some moving pieces. And so I guess the question is what -- as you look at the flow-through of the business in 2018, is there anything unusual? Is it a little bit better than the way you had initially planned or a little bit worse? If you can share any color on that, please?

Patrick Moore

Analyst

We're still looking and aiming for stable margins, and we think that's a pretty good outcome based on a couple of things. One, managing the wage pressure that we will feel in areas. And second, we continue to reinvest in the business. We think that building out the omnichannel capabilities are important. So at the EBITDA and EBIT lines, we are -- our guidance suggests fairly stable margins, and we feel like for the business this year and 3 years in the future, that's the right place to be.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Dan Binder with Jefferies.

Daniel Binder

Analyst

My first question is around the hurricane benefit in the quarter. I realize you said, over 2 quarters, you didn't think it was that material. I was wondering if you could just isolate the benefit in the quarter. And my second question is around your comments around optometrist wages and retention. One, if you could just outline what that retention looks like. And then secondly, is the wage inflation that you're seeing there greater than you expected? And would you anticipate any price increases to cover it? If not, how do you plan to deal with it?

Patrick Moore

Analyst

I'll take the first question in terms of the storm impact. In Q3, we disclosed a range of $3.5 million to $4.1 million of revenue impact, and you can certainly do the math on the comps. Now in my earlier remarks, what I was indicating was, if you take the downside of Q3 and the recovery in Q4, you're pretty much at a wash. So we view the business recovered nicely in terms of both Irma and Harvey. Harvey recovery had already started late in the third quarter, but most of the Irma recovery happened in the fourth quarter. On the cost side, probably still pretty close to a wash. We had a little more cost in third quarter because we were playing optometrists and associates. But in the fourth quarter, you'd get a little store payroll leverage and you would probably have a little better flow-through in margins. So all in all, I would say, take the 2 quarters and it really had a fairly immaterial impact on the business. And again, this is one of the most positive attributes of the business. You can have a short-term impact due to an external event and get a nice recovery. You can't always dictate or predict the timing on that recovery, but we have seen a couple of instances in 2018 that were good examples for this.

L. Fahs

Analyst

Good. And let me take the 2 topics related to the potential of wage inflation. We sort of bucket this in 2 different ways. One bucket relates to optometrists and one bucket relates to store-level associates. And we are happy to pay competitive salaries to both doctors and associates. That's something we focus on. Attracting and retaining optometrists is a big part of what we do, and compensation is an important part of that equation. With doctors, from time to time, in specific geographic instances, we see sort of flare-ups of wage inflation. And sometimes that comes into play in sort of the specific markets we enter. But it's generally a short-term impact and very sort of geographically-centered and focused. And then in terms of the associate level, we monitor this on a market-by-market and position-by-position basis. But the key thing I think you've got to keep in mind is that the competitive frame from a labor perspective for our store associates is often other optical players. We are -- most of the folks in this company have sort of defined themselves as people who are creating careers in optics and they consider themselves optical people. And most of us who have sort of spent some time here sort of stay in the category for all sorts of different reasons. And so our comparison point is often just other optical employers. We also have the advantage of our growth in terms of all the stores we build, which means we need more store managers and more district managers. So those folks in the category who are ambitious look to us as a place to create a long-term career. And I think finally, there's an aspect here of just feeling good about your work. If you're used to environments where the prices are really high and you come to us, you find there's a lot of fulfillment in being able to provide such great value and sort of being directly on the side of the customer and all that, so we find that's sort of an intangible that we provide culturally that people feel good about. So it's a holistic picture there. And I probably -- the short answer to your question is, this is all anticipated in the outlook we're providing, and we think we've put that in the outlook in the appropriate ways based on history and insight into sort of our future.

Raymond McAllister

Analyst

Reade, [indiscernible] I think the question also is regarding retention. And I do think, as a team, we're very focused on retention. And frankly, I think it's been the heritage of this company, in focusing on recruiting or retaining our doctors and being a place that they can join us and retire. And I do think that we're living up to that expectation. And certainly, I know our operations team is very much creating an environment to do so.

L. Fahs

Analyst

And again, retention -- the retention is strong and recruitment is strong. But I will say, again, Jeff came here with strong optical experience, and he walked in the door and the first thing he started talking about was making sure we were the best place for optometrists to spend their careers and be with us. And that has been a renewed focus of attention throughout field management. And it was one of those new eyes come in and bring us back to basics. I hope those answer your questions, Dan.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Bob Drbul with Guggenheim Securities.

Robert Drbul

Analyst

I guess the first question that I would ask is, around some of the tax implications broadly for your customer base, are you seeing any change in behavior around like the tax -- some bonuses that are being paid to the lower income customers? And are you seeing that drive any change in behavior? And the second question that I have is you guys have talked about the monster truck-eyeglass partnership, I was wondering if that was at all a comp driver throughout the quarter.

L. Fahs

Analyst

Good. Let me take the 2 questions up. Well I will say, we do spend a lot of time thinking about taxes and our consumers. We watch the IRS website and sort of sort out what's been paid when and how that relates to prior years and when do tax returns start coming out. It's been sort of too early, I don't -- think that's been our area of focus relative to taxes and our customers, which is the refund piece. We haven't seen anything specifically tied to them feeling they have more money in their pocket thus far on this, but that's all sort of relatively new news there. And Monster Jam, again, we've been very happy with our partnership there. I do hope -- this is great family entertainment. If you -- if the Monster Jam comes to town, this is really a nice thing. It's not like anything you -- if you went to a monster truck show 20 years ago, it is not like that, okay? It is really a great thing and it's part of the constellation of elements that help of our comp sales. I wouldn't -- it's not as important as TV overall or pieces like that or our managed care partnerships or things like that, but it's a nice piece and it adds energy and visual interest and excitement, and is a different way in and a different touch point. And it's always fun when you open a new store and have a great big monster truck parked right outside, everyone wants to come over and see that. So yes, we're still going well. I think we had a few -- a bunch of folks inside a monster truck just about 2 weeks ago when they came to Atlanta.

Robert Drbul

Analyst

And if I can just ask one more question. You guys had talked previously about just like openings on the optometrists, like how many positions that you had in the marketplace for optometrists that you had like open slots. Could you give us an update in terms of any markets where that is the case? And if you are having any trouble luring and hiring optometrists to the company?

L. Fahs

Analyst

Yes, we don't talk about that on a market-by-market basis. I mean, overall, we feel -- we're feeling just fine right now about retention and recruitment. And there's nothing unusual going on relative to recruitment and retention relative to the past year or 2.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our next question will come from the line of Zach Fadem with Wells Fargo.

Quinn Burch

Analyst

This is Quinn Burch on for Zach. I was hoping you could just update us on the customers using health benefits or FSA accounts in your stores? And if you're seeing any changes in your newer markets versus existing markets.

L. Fahs

Analyst

We don't share that in detail. Managed care is a growth driver for us and has been for years, but we don't get into that. And these are market instances or not. Nice -- helps us nicely at the end of the year, as it always does. But again, no new news there. But we don't talk -- we don't go into depth of the specifics on that.

Quinn Burch

Analyst

Okay. And then also, we've been seeing some more online eye exams and prescription renewals from some of your online peers. So I was curious to what extent you're testing some of these ideas and if we should view that as more of an opportunity or a threat to your business.

L. Fahs

Analyst

So I think there are 2 sides to that. We don't like to be the pioneer of something like that. There's a lot you've got to navigate from a regulatory standpoint and from an optometrist perception standpoint, and we are an optometrist-centric organization. We see technology and investments in technology and consumer-facing technology as an ongoing focus of investment and attention and ways of diminishing friction are always good. We see this as small now but emerging, and we are all over understanding it. We just think it's best to move to sort of think a lot about this and sort of make sure to get it right and -- but not much has changed in that area. But there are efforts out there, and we monitor, talk and try to figure out what's best for us and -- on that front.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I'm showing no further questions in the queue. So now, it's my pleasure to hand the conference back over to the management team for some closing comments and remarks.

L. Fahs

Analyst

Great. Well, thank you very much. I know a lot of you had to work hard to even get on this call today. So thanks for joining us and your interest in us. For those of you who are stockholders, thank you for the vote of confidence in our work that your investment reflects. And we will continue to endeavor to ensure you are happy you made that decision, and we're looking forward to talking to you all again soon. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation on today's conference. This does conclude our program, and we may all disconnect. Everybody have a wonderful day.