Tom Durels
Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, John, and good morning. On today's call, I will provide you with an update on our four key growth drivers, review our leasing activity in the second quarter, give an overview of our current and future space availabilities, discuss the timing of new lease commencements and discuss new redevelopment work. As you know from our Investor Day in March 2015, we set forth our four key growth drivers from our existing portfolio. At that time, we presented revenue growth of $90 million to $100 million from these four growth drivers over the next 5 to 6 years. Since January 2015, when we exclude the contribution to NOI growth from the Observatory, and adjust it for the mid-2014 acquisitions of 1400 Broadway and 111 West 33rd Street, we have delivered $62 million in cash NOI growth in just 2.5 years. This is net of the loss of income from the vacancies we create through our redevelopment and releasing program. Our second quarter numbers reflect further progress on our four growth drivers, which are: one, upside from signed leases not commenced of $12 million and burn-off of free rent to $24 million, which together total approximately $36 million in growth; two, lease-up of developed vacant office space of $31 million; three, the mark-to-market on our expiring Manhattan office leases of $19 million; and four, the mark-to-market and lease-up of available retail space of $8 million. Based on these updated numbers, we estimate these drivers will contribute approximately $94 million of growth over the next 5 to 6 years as of June 30, 2017, relative to our trailing 12 months cash NOI of $370 million. Now remember, we calculate these numbers based on our view of the current market for starting rents without consideration for potential increases in future starting rents. And as we discuss every quarter, we expect that our occupancy will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter, as we vacate and consolidate spaces in order to redevelop and release those spaces at higher rents to better tenants. There is also a timing lag between the move-outs of existing tenants and when we complete our work before lease-up and when new leases commence. For pre-builts and full floors, overall down time is generally 9 to 24 months, following the last date of occupancy by a prior tenant, to allow time for redevelopment and lease-up, though it can be less or more depending on the space and our overall inventory. And as we execute our strategy, we unlock the embedded growth within our portfolio and drive significant increases in rental rates and future cash flows. In the second quarter, we signed 51 new and renewal leases totaling approximately 330,000 square feet. This included approximately 251,000 square feet in our Manhattan office properties, 49,000 square feet in our Greater New York Metropolitan properties and almost 30,000 square feet of retail. Significant leases signed during the quarter include office leases with Gap's Intermix brand for nearly 81,000 square feet at 111 West 33rd Street; Renfro for approximately 30,000 square feet at 1400 Broadway; and iCapital Network for 17,500 square feet at One Grand Central Place. At quarter-end, our total portfolio was 89.2% occupied, which is up 40 basis points from the first quarter. And including signed leases that have not yet commenced the total portfolio leased percentage was up 180 basis points from the first quarter at 91.3% leased. At our flagship property, the Empire State Building, we were up 60 basis points from the first quarter 2017 to 92.1% occupied. And including our signed leases not yet commenced, our leased percentage was 92.4%, up 70 basis points from last quarter. As a result of our redevelopment strategy, we continued to capture healthy rental growth spreads. During the second quarter, rental rates on new and renewal leases across our entire portfolio were 31% higher on a cash basis compared to prior escalated rents. And at our Manhattan office properties, we signed new leases at rent spreads of 49.9%. That's nearly 50% positive mark-to-market spread. Remember, leasing spreads will vary by quarter, depending on the prior fully escalated rents. Our average tenant installation cost for the quarter was $68.24 per square foot for the total portfolio. This number will also vary by quarter depending upon the mix of spaces leased, including white-boxed, pre-built, first generation and second generation, and the ratio of new versus renewal leases. Throughout the total portfolio as of June 30, we had 1,094,000 square feet of vacancy against which we have 209,000 square feet of signed leases not commenced for a net total of 885,000 square feet of unleased space, which is comprised of Manhattan office vacancy of 704,000 square feet, retail vacancy of 28,000 square feet and Greater New York Metropolitan office vacancy of 153,000 square feet. Of the 704,000 square feet of unleased Manhattan office space, approximately 519,000 square feet is consolidated and redeveloped pre-builts and white-boxed space ready for lease-up. Approximately 102,000 square feet is being held off market until it can be consolidated. And the balance of our vacant space is either planned for redevelopment or storage. We expect to vacate 167,000 square feet in our Manhattan office portfolio by year-end. With in-place fully escalated rents of $45.43 per square foot, we expect to release this space at much higher rents. As a reminder, as of June 30, we have signed leases that have not yet commenced in free-rent burn-off, which will add $36 million in cash NOI growth by the end of 2018. Within our Manhattan office portfolio, we currently have available 11 full floors totaling 200,000 square feet, including 3 floors at 250 West 57th Street, 4 floors at 111 West 33rd Street, 2 floors at the Empire State Building, and 1 floor each at 1350 Broadway and One Grand Central Place. The redevelopment work that we're doing at 111 West 33rd Street and 250 West 57th Street, which includes new lobbies, elevator cams, and street front is well underway, and should be completed by Labor Day. The work done to date looks fantastic, and reaction from tenant prospects and brokers has been excellent, and has no doubt materially contributed to our leasing successes to date at 111 and 250. In the second quarter, we commenced a long-term capital project at the Empire State Building that will greatly improve the experience for our office tenants and their visitors and Observatory visitors, and the value of our 34th Street retail. In the first phase, we will relocate the present Observatory entrance now located on Fifth Avenue, to a new larger designated entrance at the western side of the Empire State Building on 34th Street. This new Observatory entrance will provide a separate, dedicated entrance for Observatory visitors; eliminate Observatory visitors from entering the Fifth Avenue lobby, thereby reducing Observatory traffic in the Fifth Avenue lobby by more than 50%; and restore better access to the Fifth Avenue lobby to our office tenants and their visitors; enhance the value of all of our 34th Street-facing retail space; enhance the Observatory visitor experience; and increase Observatory revenue per capita. We currently anticipate that we will invest approximately $40 million to $50 million annually over the next three years to complete this project. As we disclosed in the supplement, we spent $6.9 million in the second quarter related to this first phase. There will be no disruption to Observatory operations or the visitor experience during the project. While plans are set, for competitive reasons, we will only provide details of the project as each phase is implemented. Our objective is to create long-term value for shareholders, and this investment is an outcome of continually looking at ways to innovate and enhance the office and retail and visitor experience at the Empire State Building. Turning to our retail business, we signed five leases in the quarter for 29,600 square feet in total. The majority of the activity, approximately 27,000 square feet, was related to the renewal of two parking garages, which are reported within our retail numbers. These garages consist of below-grade space for which market rents per square foot is considerably lower than our street retail, and contributed to the reported negative rent spread for the quarter. But putting this into context, the total aggregate rent spread between starting rents and prior fully escalated rents, is only about $220,000. More importantly, our street retail portfolio is 95.9% occupied and 96% leased, and is located in high-traffic areas with excellent submarkets. The strong execution and leasing results delivered by our team has positioned us well. We have leased all our retail space on 57th Street, Broadway and the entire 89,000 square feet at 112 West 34th Street, where we previously reported a mark-to-market aggregate rent spread of nearly $19 million. And we have less than 6% of our retail spaces expiring in the next two years. Overall, I feel very good about our leasing pipeline. I remain very confident in our team's ability to execute and deliver on our four key growth drivers. We continue to see steady demand for our properties, which offer prospective tenants an attractive combination of location and amenities at a value price point. We continue to lease up our vacant space and execute on our proven strategy to consolidate, vacate, and deliver redeveloped space in order to lease to new, better-credit tenants at higher rents, increase NOI and improve shareholder value. Now, I'm going to turn the call over to David Karp. David.