Tom Durels
Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead
Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone. On today’s call, I will provide an update of our four key growth drivers and review our leasing activity in the first quarter, giving up overview of our current and future space availabilities and discuss the timing of new lease commencements. As you know from our Investor Day in March of 2015, we set forth our four key growth drivers from our existing portfolio. At that time, we presented revenue growth of $90 million to $100 million from these four growth drivers over the following five to six years. Since January 2015, when we exclude the contribution to NOI growth from the Observatory and adjusted for the mid-2014 acquisitions of 1400 Broadway and 111 West 33rd Street, we have delivered $56 million in cash NOI growth. This is net of the loss of income from the vacancies we create through our redevelopment and re-leasing program. As David Karp will discuss more in his comments, we are now including disclosure of the annual rent from leases that have commenced but are in their free rent period. Once the free rent period is over, these leases will contribute to cash NOI, but until then, we will track them in signed leases, not commenced. Previously, we did not provide the future contribution to cash NOI from leases that have commenced that are still in their free rent period. Our first quarter numbers reflect further progress on our four key growth drivers, which are one, upside from signed leases, not commenced of $4.5 million and the burn off of free rent of $35 million, which together total approximately $40 million of growth from this driver; two, lease-up of developed vacant office space of $40 million; three, the mark-to-market on our expiring Manhattan office leases of $21 million; and four, the mark-to-market and lease-up of available retail space of $9 million. Based on these updated numbers, we estimate these drivers will contribute approximately $110 million of growth, over the five to six years as of March 31, 2017, relative to our 12 months cash NOI of $362 million. Remember, we calculate these numbers based on our view of the current market for starting rents without consideration for potential increases in future starting rents. And as we discuss every quarter, we expect that our occupancy will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter as we vacate and consolidate spaces in order to redevelop and re-lease those spaces at higher rents to better tenants. There is a timing lag between the move-outs of the existing tenants and when we complete our work before lease-up and when new leases commence. For prebuilts, overall downtime is generally 9 to 18 months following last date of occupancy by prior tenant to allow time for redevelopment and lease-up, there could be less or more depending on the space and our overall inventory. And for fourth floors, overall downtime including time for redevelopment work and lease-up can be 10 to 24 months following last date of occupancy by prior tenant, again, depending on the space and our total inventory. As we execute our strategy, we unlock the embedded growth within our portfolio and drive significant increases in rental rates and future cash flows. In the first quarter, we signed 27 new and renewal leases totaling approximately 201,000 square feet. This included approximately 85,000 square feet in our Manhattan office properties, 73,000 square feet in our Greater New York metropolitan properties and 43,000 square feet of retail. Significant leases signed during the quarter include office leases with Mount Sinai for 26,000 square feet at 250 West 57th Street and which I’ll comment further in a moment; Partner Reinsurance for 56,700 square feet at First Stamford Place; and a retail lease with Target for 43,000 square feet at 112 West 34th Street. At quarter-end, our total portfolio was 88.8% occupied, which is up 70 basis points from the fourth quarter and including signed leases that have not yet commenced, the total portfolio leased percentage was down 70 basis points from the fourth quarter at 89.5% leased. At our flagship property, the Empire State Building, we were up 100 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2016 to 91.5% occupied. Including our signed leases not yet commenced, our lease percentage was 91.7%, down 10 basis points from the last quarter. As a result of our redevelopment strategy, we continue to capture healthy rental growth spreads which are in line with our regular investor and analysts meetings and investor deck updates. During the first quarter, rental rates on new and renewal leases across our entire portfolio were 44% higher on a cash basis compared to prior escalated rents; and at our Manhattan office properties, we signed new leases at rent spreads of 22.4%. The lease spread for new Manhattan office leasing this quarter was lowered by the signing of the lease with Mount Sinai. Adjusting for this lease, our reported leasing spread would have been approximately 34%. Now, let me explain. This was an early recapture on a space that had already been redeveloped and experienced a significant rent bump. The prior long-term lease was approximately 50% of the way through its term and we secured a substantial termination payment by the prior tenant, avoided future downtime and secured a new lease with an immediate increase in base rent to an excellent quality credit tenant with a prospect for future expansion in the building. Whenever possible, we will take advantage of the opportunities to capture direct leases with better credit tenants at higher rents and secure lease cancelation payments from existing tenants who have physically vacated rather than settling for sublets which drive no value for shareholders. Remember, leasing spreads will vary by quarter, depending on the prior fully escalated rents. Our average tenant installation cost for the quarter was $48.84 per square-foot for the total portfolio. This number will also vary by quarter, depending upon the mix of spaces leased including white box, prebuilt, first generation and second generation space, and ratio of new versus renewal leases. Throughout our portfolio, as of March 31, 2017, we have 1,140,000 vacancy against which we have 78,000 square feet of signed leases not commenced for a net total of 1,062,000 square feet of un-leased space, which is comprised of Manhattan office vacancy of 860,000 square feet, retail vacancy of 39,000 square feet and Greater New York metropolitan vacancy of 163,000 square feet. Of the 860,000 square of un-leased Manhattan office space, approximately 670,000 square feet is consolidated space and redeveloped that includes prebuilts and white box space. Approximately 78,000 square feet is being held off the market until it can be consolidated for future redevelopment. And the balance of our vacant space is being planned for future redevelopment. We expect to vacate 287, 000 square feet in our Manhattan office portfolio by year-end with in-place fully escalated rents of only $47 per square-foot; we expect to re-lease this space at much higher rents. And as a reminder, as of March 31, 2017, we have signed leases that have not yet commenced of free rent burn off which will add $39.5 million in cash NOI growth by the end of 2018. Within our Manhattan office portfolio, we currently have available 14 fourth floors totaling 339,000 square feet including three floors at 250 West 57th Street and five floors at 111 West 33rd Street. At both of these buildings, we are underway with new building lobbies and entrances, elevators and storefronts. And we have two floors at the Empire State Building, two at 1400 Broadway and two tower floors at One Grand Central Place. Turning to our retail business, the 43,000 square-foot lease we signed with Target during the quarter represents the successful redevelopment, full lease-up and nearly 89,000 square feet of multilevel retail space at 112 West 34th Street. The prior fully escalated annualized rent on the entire 89,000 square feet in April 2016 was $2.2 million and the entire space is now fully leased at Foot Locker, Sephora and Target at an annual base rent of $20.9 million and results in a mark-to-market lease spread of over 840%. We feel very good about our leasing pipeline and I’m very confident in our team’s ability to execute and deliver on our four key growth drivers. Overall, we continue to see steady demand for our properties, which offer prospective tenants and attractive combination of location and amenities at a value price point. We continue to lease up our vacant space and execute on our proven strategy to consolidate, vacate and deliver redeveloped space in order to lease to new, better credit tenants at higher rents, increase NOI and improve shareholder value. Now, I’m going to turn the call over to David Karp. David?