Daniel Sullivan
Analyst · Bernstein
Thank you, Rod. Good morning, everyone. As Rod mentions, we're very pleased with how we started the year and the solid Q1 results reflect the continued focus on our fundamentals. Good execution on shelf, the efficient balance of brand and trade spend and further progress on becoming a more productive and effective organization with Project Fuel now entering mature execution and core to how we run this business. Our top line results continued to improve, with flat organic net sales and, importantly, underpinned by our return to growth in North America. We estimate that, on an underlying basis, run rate sales for the business in Q1 were also flat, adjusting for the impact of the Japan VAT load-in in Q4 of last year and cycling the sun care reformulation headwinds of a year ago. Gross margins were also strong, benefiting from improved market and product mix and the continued execution of Project Fuel. Q1 was therefore a good demonstration of our full-year objectives, to deliver stable organic net sales and gross margin results year-over-year. We also successfully closed on the infant and pet care divestiture, utilizing the proceeds to further strengthen our balance sheet. This was an important step in the transformation of our portfolio, enabling us to focus on our core brands and new growth opportunities. This business was simply not a strategic fit for us where we lacked a clear right to win as evidenced by the significant profit erosion we experienced over the past several years. Although the foregone segment profit and associated stranded costs from the divestiture negatively impacts earnings per share, this streamlining of our portfolio better positions us to be a stronger company in the long run while freeing up capital that can be potentially deployed elsewhere at higher returns. We've updated our full-year outlook to reflect the divestiture and the lower full-year tax rate. Outside of those changes, the full-year outlook for the business is unchanged and I'll discuss this in more detail shortly. So, let me start with a discussion of our operational performance in the quarter and then move to our outlook for the full year. As mentioned, net sales in the quarter were flat on an organic basis and slightly ahead of our expectations. The further sequential top line improvement was supported by organic net sales growth in North America of 60 basis points, representing the first year-over-year quarterly growth since Q4 of fiscal 2016. Growth was also seen in the Sun and Skin Care and Fem Care segments. And although Wet Shave organic net sales declined 3% in the quarter, this represented an improvement as compared to recent trends. International organic net sales declined 90 basis points in the quarter, cycling mid-single digit growth last year and reflecting the negative impact of the Q4 2019 load-in ahead of the VAT increase. e-commerce growth accelerated in the quarter as we further expanded our capabilities and presence, driven by strong holiday execution and growth in our gifting business. Looking at organic sales by segment, Wet Shave organic sales declined just over 3% in the quarter with declines in men's systems and disposables, partly offset by growth in women's systems and shave preps. We continue to see solid performance in two of our most recent product offerings, Bulldog razors and Skintimate disposables. Women's private label also posted strong growth in the quarter. From a geographic perspective, North America continued to face competitive pressure, with share losses over the last 12 weeks largely in line with 52-week trends. Despite our progress, we anticipate that our Wet Shave business in North America will remain somewhat challenged over the course of 2020, with the spring planogram resets providing mixed results in key retailers. We, therefore, focused on improving our innovation capabilities and continuing to invest incrementally in our brands, which Rod discussed earlier. Sun and Skin Care organic sales increased over 12%, aided in part by the cycling of last year's reformulation headwinds. Adjusting for this, we estimate underlying run rate sales for the segment to be up about 6% with strong performance in grooming and wipes. Our Wet Ones business grew over 20% in the quarter, driven by distribution gains, improved placement, additional secondary displays and added seasonal demand. Bulldog continued to realize mid-single digit growth in our grooming business, with improved velocity in the US and achieved the leading market share position in the mass channel in Canada for both the beard and face care categories. In our sun care business, although largely off-season here in the US, our retail price increases were successfully executed across mass and drug and we're cautiously optimistic heading into the summer season where we will deploy increased A&P spend across both digital and traditional media avenues. Internationally, Sun and Skin grew 8.5% on a run rate basis. Fem Care organic sales increased 70 basis points, with stable distribution, largely the result of our increased trade spend and stronger Amazon shipments and consumption. Volumes were positive across o.b., Sport Tampons and Carefree liners. We continued to see declines in Stayfree Pads. As Rod mentioned, while we are pleased with the initial progress seen our efforts to reposition this business for sustainable success, we also know the path forward will be challenging as evidenced by some distribution losses at Walmart that will be felt in half two of this year from the reason planogram resets. Changes to our Fem Care business will take time, but we remain confident that once implemented they will improve the performance of this business over the medium and longer-term. Briefly looking at the category dynamics in the quarter, in wet shave, as measured by Nielsen, the US razors and blades category decreased 130 basis points in the last 12-week data, with men's systems declining 3.2%, women's increase of 4.6% and disposables declines of 2%. Including both e-commerce and offline unmeasured, we estimate that US razors and blades increased about 1.5%, driven by continued growth online and offline unmeasured. From a market share perspective, as measured by Nielsen, in our latest 12-week data, we're at a 23.4% share in razors and blades in the US, down 150 basis points versus a year ago and in line with 52-week results. On a global basis, we estimate our share was down about 50 basis points. Gross margin increased 20 basis points year-over-year to 42.5%. Excluding costs associated with sun care reformulation, gross margin was flat, exceeding our expectations due to a combination of timing tailwinds and improved structural performance. Gross margin rates benefited from favorable market and product mix, sourcing gains, lower warehouse costs and more efficient trade spend, which helped mitigate the impact of the final stages of the North American wet shave price investment and other investments in trade spend, mostly in our Fem Care business. A&P expense this quarter was 9.1% of net sales as compared to 11.3% of net sales in the prior-year period. The decrease in A&P was largely expected as we cycled the NPD activation of Hydro Sense and Intuition f.a.b. a year ago. Our planned step up investment in A&P spending this year will be highly seasonal and largely seen in the second and third quarters where we anticipate investing about $25 million incrementally year-over-year, in conjunction with our sun care season in the US as well as in support of our new women's wet shave campaign and behind our Bulldog brand. SG&A including amortization expense was $95 million or 20.9% of net sales as compared to 19.1% of net sales in the prior-year period. Excluding the impact of restructuring-related charges, Harry's-related costs and other charges, SG&A as a percent of net sales increased 50 basis points, two-thirds of which relates to a one-time item in Q1 last year related to a favorable vacation accrual adjustment. Q1 results on a like-for-like basis increased roughly 20 bps, driven by higher equity compensation, partly offset by savings from Project Fuel. R&D expense increased 30 basis points as a percent of net sales over the prior-year quarter as we added resources as part of our planned efforts to increase capabilities and reach in support of a more robust innovation pipeline. GAAP diluted net earnings per share were $0.41 per share compared to a loss of $0.01 per share in the first quarter of last year and adjusted earnings per share were $0.55 per share compared to $0.37 in the prior-year period, with the increase equally driven by improved operating profit and favorable tax and interest costs. Net cash used by operating activities was $46.9 million for the quarter as compared to a use of cash of $46.4 million during the prior year. As a reminder, due to the seasonality of the company's business, primarily in sun care, the first fiscal quarter is typically the lowest operating cash flow quarter of the year. The company's current net debt leverage ratio is about 2.5 times, representing a full turn reduction over the last 12 months and further evidence of this business' strong free cash flow profile. Now, I'd like to turn to Project Fuel. Our teams continue to execute the core drivers of this program, delivering $15 million in incremental gross savings in the quarter, which was in line with our expectation. These savings helped to partially offset year-over-year inflationary headwinds across operations and increased investments in R&D and provide the catalyst for reinvestments behind key growth brands and markets. Turning to our updated outlook for fiscal 2020. We've adjusted our outlook to only reflect the impact of the infant and pet care divestiture on profitability and free cash flow and a new assumption for our full-year effective tax rate. 2020 EPS is now expected to be $0.15 less than prior guidance, driven by the sale of infant and pet, with a partial offset from a lower effective corporate tax rate. The sale of the infant and pet is expected to result in a $0.25 gross headwind to EPS with approximately half the impact coming from the reported segment results and half from stranded costs. We are already developing plans to address these stranded costs and, at this time, it's too early to comment on what we will be able to structurally offset. For the remainder of the business, our outlook is unchanged as are the three pillars I discussed last quarter. For the first pillar – top line stabilization – we anticipate flat to slightly down organic sales results. The second element is gross margin stabilization, supported in part by further fuel savings, selective price actions and moderated trade spend. And finally, choiceful brand reinvestment. This outlook continues to contemplate meaningful reinvestment in key growth initiatives and overall increased A&P spend, particularly in quarters two and three as I mentioned earlier. Now to the specific elements of our outlook for 2020. We estimate net sales declines to be in the range of down 4% to 5%. This reflects a 440 basis point impact from the infant and pet care divestiture. Currency at spot rates does not impact full-year growth. The outlook for GAAP EPS is in the range of $2.40 to $2.60 and includes Project Fuel restructuring and IT enablement charges, the gain on the infant and pet sale and other one-time charges. Our adjusted EPS outlook is in the range of $2.95 to $3.15. Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be in the range of $350 million to $360 million, reflecting an approximate $20 million reduction due to the infant and pet care divestiture. Project Fuel is expected to generate about $70 million in incremental gross savings. Despite anticipated easing in many commodity categories, we still expect that approximately 70% of the Fuel gross savings will be used to offset continued wage inflation, meaningful tariff headwinds and other rising input costs, with the remainder invested back into the business. Project Fuel related restructuring charges are expected to be approximately $35 million. The adjusted effective tax rate for the fiscal year is now estimated to be in the range of 20% to 22%. And our outlook for fiscal 2020 free cash flow is now expected to be in excess of 100% of GAAP earnings, with CapEx estimated to be 3% to 3.5% of net sales. While the total cash benefit from the infant and pet care divestiture will be approximately $60 million for the year, the transaction will result in a reduction in expected free cash flow as transaction taxes and other balance sheet adjustments will be reflected in cash from operating activities as well as lower net income, while the proceeds from the transaction will be reflected in cash from investing activities. And finally, I'd like to address our capital structure and comment on our capital allocation strategy going forward. We have already proactively begun the process of addressing our financing, leveraging our strong credit history, attractive cash flow profile and recent success in obtaining the financing for the Harry's transaction, and we are highly confident in our ability to put in place the required capital structure necessary to support the business going forward while addressing near-term maturities. In terms of our capital allocation strategy, our strong free cash flow generation, coupled with the fact that we anticipate being below 2.5 times levered by the end of this fiscal year, provide us with considerable optionality. Since then, we have taken over a ton of debt off the balance sheet, while also returning over $650 million to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks and investing over $100 million in the successful acquisitions of Jack Black and Bulldog. Our primary objective will continue to be investing appropriately in the long-term sustainable growth of this business, both organic and acquired. With the longer-term desired net debt leverage ratio of between 3 and 3.5 times, we also will consider the potential to opportunistically return capital to our shareholder. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator and open up for questions.