Steven Cunningham
Analyst · JMP
Thank you, David and good afternoon, everyone. We're pleased to report another quarter of solid top and bottom line financial performance in line with our expectations. Despite a difficult macro environment during 2022, we produced record originations and delivered record revenue. We ended the year with the largest portfolio in our history and our ample liquidity, strong capitalization and solid returns on equity also enabled us to repurchase nearly $140 million of our shares. As David noted, our diversified product offerings have allowed us to adapt and pivot in this uncertain macroeconomic environment to support the resiliency of our portfolio while continuing to deliver solid financial results. Turning to our fourth quarter results. Total company revenue rose 7% sequentially and increased 34% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to $486 million. The increase in revenue was driven by the growth of total company combined loan and finance receivables balances which on an amortized basis were $2.9 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, up 8% sequentially and 46% higher than the fourth quarter of 2021. As David noted, total company originations for the fourth quarter totaled $1.2 billion, down slightly sequentially and 9% higher than originations during the fourth quarter of 2021. Total company origination trends were influenced by our increased emphasis during the second half of 2022 when originating shorter duration and smaller dollar consumer line of credit consumer products are reducing exposure to longer duration and larger dollar near-prime consumer installment loans. I'll discuss this more in a moment. In light of the customer demand that David mentioned, our marketing activities continue to effectively attract new customers across our products, with originations from new customers during the quarter remaining strong at 42% of total origination. We expect originations from new customers will remain above historical averages as our consumer mix continues to shift towards lines of credit. Small business revenue increased 12% sequentially and 67% from the fourth quarter of the prior year to $193 million as small business receivables growth continued to be strong. Small business receivables on an amortized basis totaled $1.8 billion at December 31, a 13% sequential increase and 77% higher than the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 as small business originations increased 42% from the prior year quarter to $826 million. Revenue from our consumer businesses increased 3% sequentially and 18% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to $286 million as consumer receivables on an amortized basis ended the fourth quarter at $1.1 billion, flat sequentially and 12% higher than the end of the fourth quarter of 2021. Consumer originations of $336 million were lower sequentially and compared to the prior year quarter. The lower growth in our consumer portfolio was influenced by our increased emphasis during the second half of 2022 on originating more consumer line of credit products. As a result, consumer line of credit receivables grew 18% sequentially and 43% from the end of last year as consumer line of credit originations grew 13% sequentially and 30% from the fourth quarter of 2021. Consumer demand for these products is strong and this mix shift supports our ability to adapt more quickly in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Looking ahead, we expect total company revenue for the first quarter to be flat sequentially as we expect some first quarter seasonality and to maintain our balanced approach to growth that we've been executing for the past year. This expectation for revenue next quarter will depend upon the level, timing and mix of originations growth during the first quarter. Now turning to credit. The net revenue margin for the fourth quarter of 60% was within our expected range. Credit quality which is the most significant driver of net revenue and portfolio fair value, continues to perform in line with our expectations as $4.5 billion of loans originated during 2022 continue to season. Fourth quarter net revenue and credit metrics for the total company reflect the continued seasoning and normalization of our growing small business portfolio in the aforementioned deliberate mix shifts within the consumer portfolio. The total company ratio of net charge-offs as a percentage of average combined loan and finance receivables for the fourth quarter was 8.8% compared to 8.4% last quarter. And the percentage of total portfolio receivables past due 30 days or more was 6.7% at December 31 compared to 5.6% at the end of last quarter. With the meaningful growth in our small business portfolio this year, we continue to see credit metrics for the portfolio moving to more normal levels from unsustainably low levels we experienced during 2021 and early 2022, along with a corresponding move in the small business net revenue margin toward a more typical level, ranging from the low 60% to the low 70%. The credit outlook for our small business portfolio, as reflected by the fair value premium as a percentage of principal, continued to reflect a stable outlook for lifetime portfolio credit losses at the end of the year and increased 1 percentage point from the end of last quarter to 109%. Similar to what we have observed with our consumer portfolio during 2022, as our small business portfolio's performance and credit metrics continue to settle at more typical ranges, there could be some quarter-to-quarter variability, including temporarily falling below or above typical ranges for the net revenue margin. This can be especially evident in this uncertain macroeconomic environment where we could have slight quarter-to-quarter variations in growth and performance. We highlighted in our earnings call last quarter that we increased our ROE targets across our portfolio, including small business. This was to ensure we had additional cushion in the profitability profile of our loans to protect against potential credit variability in the market environments like we are in now. So even if net revenue margin is lower than expected for a short period of time, we are still likely to generate positive returns on those portfolios. Now turning to consumer. Performance and credit metrics for our consumer portfolio are reflecting the aforementioned shift toward line of credit loan. Consistent with that shift, we've seen an increase in the fair value of our consumer portfolio as a percentage of principal during the second half of 2022, including 3 percentage points this quarter, reflecting a solid outlook for the lifetime credit losses versus original expectations. As a result of the aforementioned trends in our small business and consumer portfolios, the fair value of the consolidated portfolio as a percentage of principal increased by nearly 2 percentage points this quarter to 110%. Looking ahead, the small business credit continuing to settle at more typical levels and consumer credit remaining relatively stable, we expect the total company net revenue margin for the first quarter of 2023 to be in the range of 55% to 60%. The future net revenue margin expectation will depend upon portfolio payment performance and the level, timing and mix of originations growth. Now turning to expenses. Our operating costs this quarter continue to reflect the leverage inherent in our online model and our thoughtful expense management. Total operating expenses for the fourth quarter, including marketing, were $176 million or 36% of revenue compared to $187 million or 52% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021. Our marketing activities remain effective and efficient with total marketing spend this quarter of $97 million or 20% of revenue compared to $108 million or 30% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021. Looking forward, we expect marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue to be around 20% in the near term but will depend upon the growth and mix of originations, especially from new customers. With growth in receivables and originations during 2022, operations and technology expenses for the fourth quarter increased to $45 million or 9% of revenue compared to $39 million or 11% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021. Given the significant variable component of this expense category, sequential increases in O&T costs should be expected in an environment where originations and receivables are growing. It should range between 9% and 10% of revenue. Our fixed costs continued to reflect our focus on operating efficiency and thoughtful expense management. General and administrative expenses for the fourth quarter declined to $35 million or 7% of revenue from $41 million or 11% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021. While there may be slight variations from quarter to quarter, we expect G&A expenses as a percentage of revenue of around 8% in the near term. We recognized adjusted earnings, a non-GAAP measure, of $57 million or $1.76 per diluted share compared to $1.61 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of the prior year. Our solid balance sheet and ample liquidity give us the financial flexibility to successfully navigate a range of operating environments. It has allowed us to deliver on our commitment to long-term shareholder value through both continued investments in our business as well as share repurchases. We ended the fourth quarter with $729 million of liquidity, including $196 million of cash and marketable securities and $533 million of available capacity on facilities. The solid credit performance of our portfolios continues to be reflected in our capital markets activity. In addition to closing a new $125 million facility to finance net credit installment loans in October that we discussed on our last call, during the fourth quarter, we also successfully renewed or amended $463 million of existing facilities secured by OnDeck receivables to either extend maturities or increase advance rates with favorable pricing. Despite the 425 basis point increase in the term SOFR rate during 2022, our cost of funds for the fourth quarter was 7%, up only 50 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2021. Demonstrating our confidence in the continued strength of our business relative to our current valuation, during the fourth quarter, we acquired 525,000 shares at a cost of approximately $19 million. At December 31, we had $158 million remaining under our authorized share repurchase programs. Now turning to our expectations for the full year of 2023. In a macroeconomic environment that is largely the same as when we exited 2022, we would expect originations for the full year 2023 to grow between 10% and 15% as we maintain our focus on an origination strategy that balances growth and risk. The resulting growth in receivables, stable credit and continued operating leverage should result in full year 2023 growth in both revenue and adjusted EPS that is faster than expected originations growth. Our expectations for 2023 will depend upon the macroeconomic environment and the resulting impact on demand, customer payment rates and the level, timing and mix of originations growth. Finally, to summarize our first quarter outlook, we expect revenue to be flat sequentially, primarily as a result of typical first quarter seasonality, combined with our continued focus on an origination strategy that balances growth and risk against the current macroeconomic environment. And we expect the total company net revenue margin in the range of 55% to 60%, with continued normalization of our small business portfolio and stable consumer credit. In addition, we expect marketing expenses to total approximately 20% of revenue, expect O&T costs between 9% and 10% of revenue and G&A costs of around 8% of revenue. These expectations should lead to an adjusted EBITDA margin in the 20% to 25% range and slightly lower adjusted EPS compared to the first quarter of 2022, primarily due to the rise in SOFR. Our first quarter expectations will depend upon customer payment rates, the level, timing and mix of originations growth. We entered 2023 with financial flexibility and we remain focused on delivering solid financial results while striking a prudent balance between growth and risk. We are confident that the demonstrated ability of our talented team has us well positioned to quickly adapt to the evolving macro environment. And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator?