Steve Cunningham
Analyst · JMP. You may now go ahead
Thank you, David, and good afternoon, everyone. We’re pleased to report another quarter of solid top and bottom line financial performance that was in line with our expectations and characterized by focused growth, stable credit, operating cost discipline and balance sheet flexibility. Turning to our third quarter results, total company revenue rose 12% sequentially and increased 42% from the third quarter of 2021 to $456 million. The increase in revenue was driven by the growth of total company combined loan and finance receivables balances, which on an amortized basis were $2.6 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 11% sequentially and nearly 60% higher than the third quarter of 2021. As David noted, total company originations for the third quarter totaled $1.2 billion, up 10% sequentially and 40% higher than originations during the third quarter of 2021. Originations from new customers remained strong, totaling 43% of total originations as our marketing activities continue to attract new customers across our products. Small Business revenue increased 15% sequentially and 72% from the third quarter of the prior year to $173 million. Small business receivables on an amortized basis totaled $1.6 billion at September 30, a 16% sequential increase and 80% higher than the end of the third quarter of 2021, as small business originations increased 75% from the prior year quarter to $807 million. Revenue from our consumer businesses increased 10% sequentially and 29% from the third quarter of 2021 to $277 million. Consumer receivables on an amortized basis ended the quarter at $1.1 billion, up 3% from June 30 and 35% higher than the end of the third quarter of 2021, as consumer originations of $396 million were flat to the prior year quarter. Looking ahead, we expect total company revenue for the fourth quarter to grow sequentially, but at a slower rate than the sequential growth rate for the third quarter, as we maintain our balanced approach between growth and risk that David discussed. This expectation will depend upon the level, timing and mix of origination’s growth. Now turning to credit. Our net revenue margin was sequentially stable at 64% and the fair value of the consolidated portfolio as a percentage of principle increased more than a full percentage point during the quarter to 108%. These results indicate that credit during the quarter, including our future outlook remains stable and that our risk balance origination strategy is increasing the resiliency of our portfolio. For the third quarter, net charge-off and delinquency rates for the total company as well as for both the small business and consumer portfolios reflect the expected seasoning of recently originated vintages. The total company ratio of net charge-offs as a percentage of average combined loan and finance receivables for the third quarter was 8.4%, up from 7.2% last quarter and 4.2% in the third quarter of 2021, which preceded the acceleration of growth and receivables over recent quarters, especially from new customers. The ratio of net charge-offs as a percentage of average combined loan and finance receivables for both the small business and consumer portfolios increased sequentially, but are similar or better than pre-pandemic levels at $3.3 billion of origination so far this year continue to season in line with expectations in our unit economics framework. The percentage of total portfolio receivables past due 30 days or more was 5.6% at September 30, and it’s flat compared to the end of the third quarter a year ago. As we would typically expect between the second and third quarters due to an acceleration of originations to new customers, the ratio of total receivables past due 30 days or more increased sequentially from 5.1% at the end of the second quarter. Importantly, we saw a sequential decline in early stage delinquencies driven by our consumer portfolio, which demonstrates our ability to effectively manage credit risk in the current operating environment. As I mentioned last quarter, while there may be quarter-to-quarter variations in credit metrics for our consumer and small business portfolios as vintages season, stability or improvement in the fair value premium as a percentage of principle typically reflects stability or improvement in the cumulative lifetime loss outlook for the portfolio, which was the case this quarter. As a reminder, these lifetime loss forecasts and related fair value estimates receive significant review and validation internally from senior management and our analytics, accounting and model risk teams, and externally by our independent auditors from Deloitte, who have built their own models to test the accuracy of our fair value calculations each quarter. Similar to the past two quarters, we increased the discount rate used in the fair value calculations for our products to incorporate observed market information. The increase this quarter of 40 basis points for each of our products decrease the fair value of our loan portfolio in the net revenue margin. Despite the impact of the discount rate adjustment, the fair value of the consolidated portfolio as a percentage of principle at September 30 increased from the end of the second quarter to 108%, reflecting a stable outlook for the expected lifetime credit performance of our total company portfolio. The increase in the total company fair value premium this quarter was driven primarily by the fair value of the consumer portfolio, which increased to 109% from 106% at the end of the –at the end of last quarter, as the rate of early stage consumer delinquencies declined sequentially. To summarize, the change in fair value line item this quarter was driven primarily by credit metrics and modeling at the end of the third quarter that continue to reflect a solid outlook for expected future credit performance, partially offset by higher discount rates and increases in net charge-offs during the third quarter as recently originated vintages have seasoned in line with our unit economics expectations. Looking ahead, we expect the total company net revenue margin for the fourth quarter of 2022 to be in the range of 60% to 65%. Our future net revenue margin expectations will depend upon portfolio payment performance and the level, timing and mix of originations growth. Now turning to expenses. Our operating costs this quarter continue to reflect the operating leverage inherent in our online model and thoughtful expense management to support our businesses. Total operating expenses for the third quarter, including marketing were $184 million or 40% of revenue compared to $151 million or 47% of revenue in the third quarter of 2021. Marketing expenses totaled $101 million or 22% of revenue compared to $80 million or 25% of revenue in the third quarter of 2021. As a reminder, under fair value accounting, we recognize marketing expenses in the period they’re incurred instead of deferring a portion or recognizing them over the life of the loans as we did prior to 2020 and as many in the industry still do. Looking forward, we expect marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue to be in the low 20% range in the near-term, but will depend upon the mix and growth of originations, especially from new customers. Operations and technology expenses for the third quarter totaled $46 million or 10% of revenue compared to $38 million or 12% of revenue in the third quarter of 2021. Given the significant variable component of this expense category, sequential increases in O&T costs should be expected in an environment where originations and receivables are growing and should range between 10% and 11% of revenue. General and administrative expenses for the third quarter totaled $37 million or 8% of revenue compared to $34 million or 10% of revenue in the third quarter of 2021. While there may be slight variations from quarter-to-quarter, we expect G&A expenses as a percentage of revenue to remain below 9% in the near-term. We recognized adjusted earnings, a non-GAAP measure of $57 million for $1.74 per diluted share compared to $1.64 per diluted share last quarter and $1.50 per diluted share in the third quarter of the prior year. We ended the third quarter with $769 million of liquidity, including $189 million of cash and marketable securities, $580 million of available capacity on committed facilities. With the addition of a new $125 million facility this week to support our near prime consumer installment business, we continue to demonstrate our ability to successfully access new liquidity at favorable terms. Our cost of funds for the third quarter was 6.5%, down from 6.7% for the third quarter of 2021. And at the end of the third quarter, our marginal cost of funds range from approximately 2.1% to 6.7%, depending on the facility utilized, demonstrating our confidence in the continued strength of our business relative to our current valuation. During the third quarter, we acquired 588,000 shares at a cost of approximately $20 million. At September 30, we had $27 million remaining under our $100 million share repurchase program. Our solid balance sheet and ample liquidity give us the financial flexibility to successfully navigate a range of operating environments and to continue to deliver on our commitments to long-term shareholder value through both continued investments in our business as well as share repurchases. To summarize, our fourth quarter outlook. As we continue to execute an origination strategy that balances growth and risk against the current macro environment, we expect revenue to increase sequentially, but at a lower sequential rate than in the third quarter. We also expect to see stable credit in a total company net revenue margin in the range of 60% to 65%. In addition, we expect marketing expenses to be in the low 20% of revenue and we expect our fixed costs to continue to scale with growth. These expectations should lead to an adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-20% range, and we expect quarterly year-over-year increases in adjusted EPS to continue in the fourth quarter of 2022. Our fourth quarter expectations will depend upon the level, timing and mix of origination’s growth. We remain confident that the demonstrated ability of our talented team has us well positioned to adapt to the evolving macro environment. Our resilient direct online only business model, diversified product offerings, nimble machine learning, powered credit risk management capabilities, and solid balance sheet, support our ability to continue to drive profitable growth while also effectively managing risk. And with that, we’d be happy to take your questions. Operator?