Ward M. Klein
Analyst · SunTrust
Thank you, Dan. I would like to provide more insight into our divisional results. In the Personal Care categories in which we compete, U.S. category dollars declined by around 2% in the latest 12 weeks versus category growth of almost 2% in the prior year. Fiscal year-to-date, these categories are down approximately 1% versus an increase of nearly 4% last year. In our second quarter conference call, we discussed the category deflationary trends. And while we lowered the forward sales organic growth rate in our outlook at that time, we still anticipated back half growth of 3% to 5%. In essence, our previous outlook was based on assumptions about modest improvements in category health, including modest razor and blade category growth as we anniversary the heightened levels of promotional spending begun 1 year ago. Sun Care category growth, based on more normalized weather patterns and some recovery in category consumption across the balance of our portfolio, especially Fem care and Infant Care. However, in the last 12-week data, these categories all remained in decline due to continued elevated levels of promotional spending, notably in razors and blades, shave preps and feminine care, as well as continued poor weather conditions, which impacts primarily the Sun Care category. As a result, our top line, particularly in the United States, has been softer than expected. Let me review key areas important to understand in U.S. category in share trends we've noted. First, within the total U.S. razor and blade category, despite the heightened levels of competitive promotional activity, we have maintained our overall Wet Shave share position in the latest 12 weeks due to the successful launch of Hydro disposables. This new product helped drive growth in the overall disposable category, which was up 4% in value, the only segment of razors and blades in the U.S. showing growth, and another example of how innovation can grow both the category and our share. However, the largest segment on the razors and blade category, men's systems, declined 6% in value and 10% in units during the quarter. You saw the largest rates of decline in the U.S. razors and blade category we have ever seen and reflect in part the previously discussed heightened levels of promotional spending that have taken place in the category, along with our competitor's focus on pack downsizing. The negative effects of this promotional environment also spilled into the shave prep category, which is down 3% in value this past quarter. Outside of Wet Shave, the U.S. Sun Care category, driven by poor weather, has remained negative in both units and value, down 4% and 3%, respectively, as the key early summer season periods were weak. Running out weak U.S. retail environment, both Fem Care and Infant Care categories have declined 4% and 5% in units and 2% in value this past quarter. In contrast to the U.S. experience, the razors and blade category is growing at nearly 2% internationally. Within our results, international razors and blades and shave preps grew 6% this past quarter, which has helped offset weakened U.S. results. Globally, our Hydro men's system sales increased 9% this past quarter as this innovative product platform continues to expand around the world. Most importantly, global Hydro retail blade sales grew 12% for the quarter; and women's Hydro Silk system sales are also growing year-over-year, up 52% in the quarter, which includes the success of our launch in Europe this year, following on our very successful launch in the U.S. and key Asian markets last year. Total Hydro platform sales, which includes Hydro men's systems, Hydro Power, Hydro Silk women systems and now Hydro disposables, achieved sales of over $200 million in the past 12 months, up 27% versus the prior 12 months. Looking forward into our fourth fiscal quarter, we anticipate continued weak U.S. category dynamics, and therefore, have lowered our U.S. sales outlook for the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, we remain confident that we will benefit from our ongoing focus on the Hydro franchise, our large and profitable women's systems franchises and our broad portfolio of disposable products, which continues to grow quarter after quarter, as well as continued international growth of our razor and blade and Sun Care businesses, which have grown 4% and 13%, respectively, fiscal year-to-date. Turning to Household Products. Global consumption trends remained consistent with our long-term expectations, with global category volume and value down in the 1% to 2% range for the quarter. In this environment, our global market share was up to 35.7% due to the regained shelf space that we discussed on our second quarter call. However, we recently experienced distribution losses in 2 U.S. retailers, which we project will negatively impact our global market share by 2 to 3 points and net sales by approximately 6%, starting in our fourth quarter with an ongoing impact at a similar 6% level during the first 3 quarters of 2014. In addition to these customer losses, we expect our fourth quarter sales to be negatively impacted by several other issues, continuation of the decline in category trend of approximately 2%; the reduction in 2% of sales resulting from our exit of certain lower-margin noncore product lines in Household Products in fiscal 2013 as part of our restructuring program; and 2% to 4% decline due to the timing of promotional activity in fiscal 2013, coupled with the incremental Hurricane Isaac volume in the prior year fourth quarter. The total impact from these factors, including the distribution losses, is projected to result in net sales declines in our fourth quarter of more than 10%. In anticipation of a difficult environment, we entered fiscal 2013 with a focus on the rationalization and streamlining of our cost structure. I will cover the progress of the restructuring project in a few minutes, but I did want to cover a few recent battery category and market share trends to provide more context to the quarterly results and the outlook. In North America, our organic sales improved in the low to mid-single digits in the quarter as we retained and grew our shelf presence at a number of important accounts. In Asia-Pacific, organic net sales were essentially flat as our 4 to 5 point improvement in market share was offset by category weakness in some key markets. In Europe, Middle East, Africa, organic sales increased in the low-single digits due to higher volumes and higher pricing in several emerging markets combined with market share growth in Europe. And finally in Latin America, organic sales increased in the low teens, driven by growing market share in the category that grew 8% in value this quarter. As evident by our strong and growing market share positions in Europe, Asia and Latin America, our battery business is a vibrant global business and remains so, notwithstanding the recent loss of distribution of 2 customers in the U.S. Now turning to the update of our 2013 restructuring program. We have made significant progress, and implementation of these plans remains ahead of our original assumptions. As a result, we've revised our fiscal year 2013 gross savings estimates from the previous $50 million to $60 million to more than $80 million. Our total project savings estimate of $225 million discussed last quarter has not changed. We are essentially realizing the savings against the original initiative sooner. Thus far, we have achieved nearly 80% of our headcount reduction goal, and the timing of manufacturing footprint changes remains on schedule. In addition, organizational structure changes within our international markets are scheduled to be implemented throughout the balance of fiscal '13 and into fiscal '14. In addition, procurement initiatives are progressing well. We have made significant progress with establishing a center-led procurement team, and results there are exceeding our expectations. We are pleased with the progress of the savings initiatives. We are obviously disappointed with the recent overall top line trends. Given the significance of the sales slowdown in Personal Care, secular category declines in Household Products, the accelerated savings have more than offset the impact of lower-than-expected sales. Furthermore, we remain committed to the goal of reinvesting a significant portion of the restructuring savings in our businesses to grow our brands and help accelerate innovation efforts that we believe are critical to ensuring long-term sustainable growth. Final plans and timing for reinvestment will be established during our upcoming 2014 budget cycle. In addition, we continue to challenge our organization to search for additional savings opportunities. As Dan mentioned, we also continue to make substantial progress in our working capital initiative, with working capital as a percent of sales down 370 basis points versus the 2011 base level. Given our original goal was for a 400 basis point reduction in working capital by the end of 2014, we remain confident we will hit or exceed this target and continue to challenge the organization to search for additional working capital reduction opportunities. As noted in the release, we are reaffirming our financial outlook for -- of $6.75 to $7 for fiscal 2013. Before making my concluding comments and opening the call up to questions, we believe it is appropriate to provide further insight into our outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2013 and a preliminary view of 2014.