Tony Guzzi
Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets
Thanks Mark. And I’m going to try real hard not to be redundant we have been working on that. Look, go to Page 11 and I’m going to talk about backlog by market sector. What you see on the page is 2015 quarter three is the high watermark on this page. In fact, you would have to go back into 2008, about halfway through the year to get to a similar period at almost $3.8 billion of backlog. At that point and you can see it on this page, hospitality was a big part of our backlog and almost $0.5 billion in most of that work with in Las Vegas. Today, that equivalent backlog is $60 million. So what you see over this long period of time is the diversity of EMCOR and our ability with our different subsidiaries to move between markets, and take advantage of good markets when they’re there. Now 2015 is a growth market for non-residential construction, an 8.55% revenue growth for the quarter, it’s a growth market for EMCOR with 8.3% of that in solid growth and both of our Construction segments, it’s a growth market for EMCOR also. Most of the indicators say that it’s a growth market and we would agree with that, and we think it’s going to be a growth market going into 2016. Now, let’s be fair. I’ve been critical of the growth trajectory of this nonresidential recovery, and quite frankly, a lot of the predictors have been ahead of what the market has. Have been on balance, it is growing now and the reality is we've been more right than wrong about the trajectory of this nonresidential recovery. We think it is strengthening right now, as it goes into 2016. Now, when you look at the building section, which is about 60% of the market and it’s basically most of the commercial or all the commercial, most of the institutional, most of the hospitality and the healthcare, when you take that building section, you put it all together as a market it’s about 60% of the non-res market. So to put in perspective this recovery, it will take it at its current momentum and as with better momentum in 2015 and continued momentum in 2016, it will be somewhere in the middle of 2017 likely, till it gets back to 2008 levels. One can talk about it being the last decade of nonresidential. It took nine years to get back to where we were in 2008. Commercial continues to be our largest sector at 30%. It’s down a little bit, but we still can see good prospects there, we’ve burned some backlog there. This is good work and it continues to be good work. You go to Industrial, which is really industrial and manufacturing, we want some nice work there, we just want a nice milk processing plant that we will do on a designed build basis, it’s one of the few things we do design build and we’ll execute that project over the next 18 months to 24 months. And then we announced right after the end of the second quarter a large wastewater job, we won at the city of West Palm Beach, and we think we have really good opportunities down in that South Florida area, on water projects over the next two or three years. This work will go on over three or four years. Bidding remained strong, and we continue to see a strong bidding market. I wouldn’t say it’s up substantially from where it was six months ago, but it's good and you can see that despite the strong revenue growth that we had backlog growth. The next question you’d ask me is where our margin is? Well, they’re certainly better than they were at the trough, but they certainly haven’t recovered where they were pre-2008 levels, and it’s not only margins that haven’t recovered at that point, the contractual terms haven’t either, but that's okay, we’ve learned how to work through that, but you can see it on our balance sheet with the net billings in excess of cost. That means it’s just not as favorable to get ahead of it. 2015 will be a growth year non-res like I said, as well 2016. So let's be clear. We got to execute and we will continue to execute very well. Now when you go to Page 12, which is really our backlog by segment. Really the only news on this page is what’s going on in our Industrial segment. And let me remind everybody what is in there. None of the [indiscernible], you saw in our backlog growth where you saw 40% revenue growth in the quarter that shows that almost everything we do in our Industrial segment happens outside of backlog. What is in backlog is the new build heat exchangers, and that market stopped. And that market is down for a very simple reason. The large integrated oil companies aren't spending as much on capital, and as capital goes down that market goes down; as that market goes down pricing gets more difficult, we become more careful. And that's not only that market comes down here in the US, we do a little bit of work in Latin America too, and that market is down substantially too with the lower price of crude. So in reality, we’re a big company, we – on the non-res markets, and we’re a big player in downstream refinery and maintenance and capital, and you can see what's going on there. But we do have expansion in our backlog in a growing non-residential market with a little bit of retraction or quite better retraction in our Industrial segment with new heat exchanger builds as large integrated oil companies sort out their capital needs. I think now we’re going to go to Page 13 and 14, and I’m going to talk, really I guess I’ll lead with Page 14 and go back to 13 right, and I’m going to talk about what we see for the rest of the year. Look we’re going to bring that revenue guidance to $6.6 billion to $6.7 billion. So we expect pretty healthy organic growth for the year. First quarter not so good, second quarter catch up, third quarter was really a good indication of strong organic growth. We’re going to narrow our guidance range of $2.65 to $2.75 a share. We have an interesting dichotomy in our business right now. Mark and I both talked about it. We have a strengthening nonresidential market and you can see that in our growth in our Construction segments. You can see that really in our Mechanical Services business and Building Services, balanced against a more challenging oil and gas sector, really focused on our shop at this point because we’re having record performance in RepconStrickland and outside of the strike, we would have a very good performance in our Ohmstede Field business. You have refiners today with pretty good crack spreads, historically high utilization, but they are stretching out some maintenance because they’re making very good money right now, and if they are integrated producers they are cutting back capital. We are coming off two very strong quarters in our Industrial segment, driven by – and in one way they’re abnormally strong. I think – we think that third quarter was abnormally strong because of some of the work we're doing on the capital side with our field operations and we are growing backlog in our Construction business with a good mix of work. We like our backlog mix right now. Our Building Services business had steady improvement over a number of years and throughout this year, and really had overcome that headwind from those government JVs, quite frankly we’ve talked that at [indiscernible] and we’ll pretty much be done with that as we get exit this year. We had two more – we have more right going on than not at EMCOR right now. But those of you know that know we’re still striking a cautious tone. And a lot of people say why is that? Why are you cautious at this point? I think it’s the headwind we’re experienced from the oil and gas integrated producers on the capital side. We’ve had a 25% drop in that backlog. Now just to size that for you, it’s about 10% to 13% of our Industrial segment revenues, and really that has affected operating margins through the year. So, one of the questions would be, why didn’t you have better drops, and we had good drops, we had 8.3% organic growth and about 13% operating profit growth in the quarter. We would like to see more and we’d like to be seeing some margin expansion with that, both our mix of work and a lots of some of the shop work and the mix of more capital work on our field operations in Industrial, it makes it harder to get that drop through on the margins. When you look at our revised range, it’s really about $10 million of operating income to get to that $2.65 to $2.75, so what I’d like to do now is focus on how you go from the bottom end of that range to the top end of the range. We really have two levers that we can pull I think at this point. One is better organic revenue growth. Can we get the projects done a little faster, the ones we have in backlog, than we’re planning on at this point at the low end of the range. And Q3 we’d tell you we’d tell you we’ve had pretty good strong added growth and our guys are executing really well right now. And the non-residential market continues to improve because we had backlog growth despite that strong organic growth. So Construction revenues coming a little stronger than we expect, maybe they could. And if they do, we go towards, more towards the middle to the top end of the range. So before you ask the question, we are in a decent fall turnaround season here at EMCOR in our Industrial Services business. We do expect a good mix of repair work for our shops, but again, we are struggling with a new OEM heat exchanger build. We expect to be busy with our field operations. We have lots of folks out in the field doing a lot of great work. We will have some scope increases as we do that. However, we are not sure that it’s going to be a strong as it was last year. Last year was an exceptional fourth quarter on our Industrial business, really driven by some of the specialty services we provide, coupled with really strong shop performance. And we’ve had growth of over 20% in the last five quarters in our Industrial segment, so we throw a little caution on that, and say could fourth quarter be as good as what fourth quarter was last year. And at the low end of the range it’s not, at the top end of range it would be at least that good. In the course, a little snow in December would help our results. So now you get to the balance sheet and you say, how are you going to deploy the balance sheet, you guys have generated cash despite the organic growth, or strong organic growth, you always generate cash, so what are you going to do? We talked in our second quarter call about – we thought the business development activity was a little busier and it is. But quite frankly, we’ve looked at a couple of substantial builds this year. We walked away from a several of them because of a weakening outlook and we just couldn’t get agreement on what that outlook look like, we’re pretty sure we were right or we were simply outbid. And we’re going to maintain our discipline. We are known for that and if we’re going to pay up for something this significant, we better be able to see the synergies like we saw with RepconStrickland and you can see that today in the performance of that asset this year, it’s having a terrific year. Now, we did close a nice fire protection deal, and we’ll see deals like that where they fit right into our operations, we know exactly how that – how we are going to get the synergies, and it adds to our geographic or some type of service, we can offer either on the Construction Building Services or Industrial side. Whether significant, or be significant to that part of our portfolio in a sense that we’ll be able to do more work, is it significant to EMCOR overall, not as much as we would like it to be on a year-to-date basis as far as the deals we’ve done. So you’ve got the strengthened cash flow. Expect to continue to have strengthened cash flow, you have a very liquid balance sheet. So our Board has authorized us to go purchase an additional 200 million in shares and we have about a 140 million left on the remaining authorization. And we’re certainly not going to be specific about how that will roll out over the next 12 months to 18 months. Our business is running well, and we continue to expect cash flow at or equal to net income. We had a good quarter, and like Mark said, on a year-to-date basis, we expect records on a number of places through the nine month period. Our company is performing well. We’ve got a little bit of headwind in the oil and gas sector for some of the capital work we do. And with that I’ll take questions.