Earnings Labs

Elemental Royalty Corporation Common Stock (ELE)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 19, 2024

$17.06

-5.12%

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Transcript

Frederick Bell

Operator

[Call starts abruptly] And I'm Frederick Bell, the CEO and we will walk through the slides together. And at the end, we'll open it up to Q&A. We'll be making some forward-looking statements in the course of this webinar. And please, again, any questions at the end, happy to run through where we can. As mentioned, myself and Dave here to walk you through it. So getting straight into it. Q3 2024, it was a strong quarter of revenue, up 32% on the comparable quarter in 2023 and that was adjusted royalty revenue of $3.7 million and adjusted revenue of $4.8 million. EBITDA adjusted of $3.7 million. That's about 70% up on Q3 2023 and adjusted cash flows from operations of $2.8 million which is up about 44% on Q3 '23. So what we saw here was, we saw significant margin growth on EBITDA and cash flows on revenue coming in this quarter versus 2023 Q3. In terms of guidance, I think we tightened the range on the revenue side. So it's now $21.6 million to $23.1 million. And in terms of gold equivalent ounce guidance, that's GEO guidance, we have reduced that slightly from 10,000 to 11,500 to 9,000 to 9,500 -- and a large driver of that was Diba which is now known as Korali-Sud from the operator Allied. And I think, look, it's been fairly well publicized that there have been delays in Mali around permitting and we're originally expecting this royalty to kick in as per Allied's guidance midyear. And they said in their results that it came in, started production at the end of Q3 and coming into Q4. But I think for us, look, we'll give a full year guidance for 2025 when we expect it to materially kick in. And so, we have…

David Baker

Analyst

Thanks. Thanks, Fred. Yes. So as a strong quarter from the assets, I think we're definitely benefiting from a higher gold price, definitely seen that at Karlawinda, where revenue continues to be over that $1.2 million. I think most excitingly for the asset there is the expansion that they've announced to 30% expansion there to 150,000 ounces of gold targeting from 2026. And that's all would be directly attributable to us. And then obviously still maintaining a 10-year mine life, at an extremely long-life Tier 1 asset. So plenty of growth in that portfolio there, guiding to 110,000 to 120,000 ounces for the year to June 2025. Caserones, we have -- it was a little lower there and that's really just a difference between timing of production and sales. As a royalty company, we get paid on sales, not production. Lundin has said in their guidance that, that will unwind through Q4. So we expect to catch up for that in Q4 with copper prices remaining strong. Guidance, again, very happy to see that they're guiding to that 121,000 to 125,000 tonnes of copper, a bit lower than when they upgraded in Q2. They've been affected by the labor dispute, since resolved but it's really in line with that original 2024 guidance of 120,000 to 130,000 tonnes, aiming for sort of $6 million of revenue plus from Caserones. They are doing really well there under Lundin ownership. Diba is going to be the real contributor. As Fred says, we know, it's just awaiting a guidance from Allied for production in Q4. So we have taken that out of our guidance for 2024. Any royalty revenue that we get will be incremental and all upside to us. So yes, really, really encouraged to see what production and sales we're going to…

Frederick Bell

Operator

Thank you, Dave and thank you, everyone, for joining. So look, in conclusion, Q3, I think, started to show some of that benefit in free cash flow margin coming through to the business. And with the addition of the AlphaStream half of the portfolio from the 1st of October and with Allied's announcement that Korali-Sud, formerly known as Diba is now in production, that combined really will drive our revenue growth and then our margins going into Q4 and Q1 next year. And I think being in a net cash position, it puts us in the strongest position we've been, as Dave alluded to, to really deploy capital into new acquisitions and to do it in a way that we don't have to be diluting our shareholders to do it. So that's a really strong position for the company. And I think if you look at the metrics on a per share basis, when Elemental and Altus merged in 2022, I think we had -- we're close to a similar number on a revenue per share metric. But the big change since then has been the addition of about 70 royalties in the Development and Advanced Exploration phase. So we've been able to maintain those revenue per share numbers but at the same time, building out development pipeline in the portfolio and continuing to add to it. And as we said, we've made one acquisition in the last quarter, building that out. We've done it last year as well and we'll continue to look at producing and also development and advanced exploration assets going forward. So from where we sit today, we think it's a very compelling pace. We have a very, very strong revenue profile. We have really good organic growth in the portfolio going into 2025 and 2026. We have 2 really cornerstone assets in Karlawinda and Caserones that will underpin the portfolio in our opinion for decades to come. We have organic growth coming in from Q4 onwards. We continue to make acquisitions where we see really good opportunities and the addition of AlphaStream to the register and La Mancha exercising their anti-dilution right, I think, has strengthened our shareholder register and exemplified the support that we have. So where we sit today and particularly looking at current commodity prices, gold and copper, principally relevant for us, we're in a very strong position to continue to go out there and really add value to shareholders through making new acquisitions. And I know a lot of shareholders are on the call and have been supporting us. So thank you for your support. And for anyone new who's listening and looking at the company, we always make ourselves available to talk. And if you do have any questions, please feel free to reach out. And with that, I might hand back to Dave and if there's any questions in the Q&A.

David Baker

Analyst

Yes. So, I think there is a Q&A button at the bottom of your screen, if you would like to ask questions.

Operator

Operator

There are a few people raising their hands to me.

David Baker

Analyst

Yes. And then maybe -- could you unmute Simon Wildsmith from Canaccord.

Operator

Operator

Sure.

Simon Wildsmith

Analyst

Can you hear me?

David Baker

Analyst

Yes, absolutely.

Simon Wildsmith

Analyst

Sorry, I'm having trouble hearing you guys now.

Frederick Bell

Operator

Hi Simon, we can hear you.

Simon Wildsmith

Analyst

Okay. Maybe I'll -- I can't hear you guys but maybe I'll ask my question and I'll figure this out. But I want to say congrats on the quarter. I'll get a couple of questions. But you guys noted earlier this year you were expecting about $20 million in payments from the portfolio over 2024 and 2025. I wonder if you could just remind us sort of what that consists of and then what's come in so far and what you're sort of still expecting?

David Baker

Analyst

Yes. Let me just jump back to that slide. It's a great question, Simon. So if you see the slide we have here, so we have already received -- we've already received just over $3 million from the sale of the initial part of the Ming stream settlement. So that's going to be a total of just over $13 million versus what we paid just over $11 million. We've also sold some noncore investments that came from the Altus merger, the Canyon Resources shares. Where else we've come? So we've received $400,000 and that came from the consideration of -- the deferred consideration on the sale of the Egyptian licenses. We're the third largest landholder in Egypt. We've sold that to a company called In2Metals, a private company and they're carrying us -- we have free carried for 20% of that company for $10 million of exploration, plus a royalty on all of that ground. We also received a discovery bonus, the first $0.5 million at SKO. I would note as well that we've doubled up on that with the AlphaStream acquisition. So any further discovery bonuses would be that full AUD1 million. And then, yes, the real large ones are expected to come -- really expected to come next year. So that first $1 million on Diba commercial production. There's also another $2 million on Diba producing 100,000 ounces of gold. Now will that happen next year? I think that's probably TBC. So we've been a bit conservative and maybe push that into 2026. But yes, that first $1 million on commercial production at Diba. And then obviously, as we discussed, the $10 million there, half cash, half equity in FireFly Metals, the Australian listed company and that was part of the acquisition and disposal of the Ming stream. The other key one there is the $2 million -- $1.9 million that we'll expect to get from Arizona Sonoran as part of their buydown of the royalty.

Simon Wildsmith

Analyst

Okay. That's great. I wonder if I could ask one more question. You guys have done a great job paying down debt this year. I wonder if you can let us know if that's sort of -- you guys, I think you have $20 million left on the revolver. I wonder, are you guys still focused on paying that down? Is that still a priority? Or are you sort of pivoting now? And also sort of wondering sort of how is transaction opportunity there? Is there lots of traffic? Or yes, I guess just what's capital allocation towards the end of the year and into next year?

David Baker

Analyst

Absolutely. Maybe I'll do this one at a time. So yes, definitely keen to delever and also keen to use that revolver like a revolving credit facility. So we are able to come in and out of it. And so yes, we obviously have been aggressively paying it down. We will continue to do that. Obviously, if we do need it for transactions, we can access that cash incredibly quickly with a few limitations on what we can use that for as well. So yes, the idea is to get debt free as quickly as possible. And then, yes, you have that available liquidity with the banks to use -- so building a cash pile and then also having the facility for transactions. I'm sure the banks will be supportive of increasing that as well for the right, obviously, cash flowing acquisitions. And obviously, the cash on hand, we keep high interest saving accounts as well. So we get pretty reasonable interest on that as well. So it's not -- definitely not being wasted. In terms of the pipeline, I think, yes, it's without exaggeration as strong as we've ever seen. We've definitely been focusing on third-party acquisitions, identifying those ourselves through the database through the contacts we have and really looking to stay away from sort of auctions and competitive processes and really going back to, I think, what we're good at which is acquiring third-party royalties that we've identified over the years.

Simon Wildsmith

Analyst

Okay. That's great. Yes. No, happy to see you guys continue to delever. That's all I have.

David Baker

Analyst

I think we've got another question there from Remy.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Is that Remy or is that Keith? That's Remy. It's okay. Can you hear me?

David Baker

Analyst

I can. Loud and clear.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. You've got me as Remy but it's Keith Moss [ph] speaking.

David Baker

Analyst

Hi, Keith. How are you?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes, I’m fine. Thank you. I've been a shareholder, I think, now for 2.5 years, coming in around $1.50, I think, from memory; 2 years ago, when you had a placing or new raise, it was I think, done around this $1.25. And what I don't understand or see, you just now quoted under compelling valuation delivers exceptional returns and value to shareholders. Well, discounting the price that I paid over 2 years, there's been no value to shareholders whatsoever. You can focus on EBITDA but I stand corrected because the slide changed quite rapidly. But in the 9 months, you had a revenue of $14.7 million revenue. But I believe on 9 months, you still have no profit before or -- after or before tax. So, no profits to distribute even if you were thinking of doing that. So when you say compelling valuation, despite the gold price going up 30% in this period and the progress you seem to be making on EBITDA, nothing is flowing through to shareholders. And I just wonder, the valuation, the share price hasn't moved, whether or not it's cheaper or more expensive than the peer group. But where is the value for shareholders? What are you waiting for? Each deal you do, it seems it's a bit like a treadmill. So what do you see that's going to bring about a re-rating of the shares and when?

David Baker

Analyst

Keith, yes, great question. Maybe I'll just jump in on the financials and then I'll definitely let Fred talk to a bit more of the strategy. So I think in terms of the near-term catalysts, where really we are at a pivotal point from the company. So post-merger, there was an active decision by the Board to monetize and create value from a generation business. And so this has been quite an active process for us to running processes on these different active exploration businesses which has resulted in a bit of staff turnover and also quite a few sort of one-off costs. Now we've come out of that incredibly strongly, with one of our largest growth royalties which is Korali-Sud, Diba, as a direct result of that. And then some of our highest conviction exploration upside but still early stage in Egypt with 1.5% royalties on all of that ground. But the question is, what changes and I think what gets people to pay attention. And I think it really is going to be going forward, that growth in cash flow. So we are going to have, looking forward, considerably lower G&A year-on-year. We're going to have considerably higher revenue year-on-year. And that really will result in growth of cash flow margins considerably higher than all our peers and more comparable to and closer to the sort of mid-tier royalty companies which, one, I think we demonstrated in our financials and we did have a profit this quarter versus this time last year, a loss of over $2 million whilst we were starting to unwind some of that business. I think you'll see that. And then what we will also be able to do is contemplate returns to shareholders but then also best how to use that cash for non-dilutive acquisitions, accretive acquisitions to shareholders. Fred, did you have anything else?

Frederick Bell

Operator

Yes. And Keith, look, maybe in terms of -- since the merger with the generation side of the portfolio and the royalty side combined, I think we have seen some of the assets that we had in their development stage, Bonikro, I think we're expecting to come in earlier than it did. Since Q4 last year, it's been in full ramp-up road. And then with Diba and now Korali-Sud. Again, I think we expected that around June this year. And again, it's been delayed a bit and they say they're now in -- producing from it; so from this quarter, a full production from that. But I think really, when Dave talked to the margin numbers, when we did the merger with Altus, I think we had 21 people combined on the sort of team internally. And then, we had about 70 people through the subsidiaries on a lot of those exploration JVs and projects. And if you look at us today, we have a headcount of about 12 people in total. And so 95% of those -- with those people, with those assets and working on those projects, they went with the partners we brought in, whether that was Allied Gold in Mali, it was Aterian in Morocco, or In2Metals in Egypt, a lot of that team and a lot of those people went with those groups who had the financial ability to continue to progress the projects. And so what we've seen is in Mali, Allied has spent a significant amount of money. They've built -- since we did the deal last autumn, they built a 12-kilometer haul road. They increased the resources at Korali-Sud. They declared a maiden reserve. They've been actively drilling more there this year than I think has happened in many years gone past.…

David Baker

Analyst

Thanks, Keith. I think, Fred, I think that's it in terms of questions. So I'm going to leave you to sum up.

Frederick Bell

Operator

Look, thank you, everyone, for attending the call. I think this is -- we did one in Q2. We did one in Q3. And I think part of this is an exercise in translating the accounts and making them simple to understand. We've got a few royalties that fall into different categories such as Caserones. But also part of it is trying to enable us to tell the story and communicate it better in terms of where the business is going, what the outlook is and what we're planning to achieve. And I think it also enables shareholders to ask us in Q4, in Q1 2025, you said you were going to do X on the previous quarterly call. Where are you in terms of that? How are you executing on it? Where have you seen success? Where have you had issues? So I think the format of this call, I think, is helpful for us as a management team but hopefully, even more so for you as shareholders and those following the company. And as always, please feel free to reach out to us directly after this call. If you have any follow-up questions or would like some more detail on that aspect and we'll always make ourselves available. Thank you, all. [Call ends abruptly]