Trent Mell
Analyst · H.C. Wainwright. Please go ahead
Okay. Thanks for that, Mark. Yes, I just want to pause as well on the recycling. It's been rewarding and frankly, a lot of fun to watch the progress day by day. And so congrats to Mark, George and the team. We've got a lot of expertise, a lot of hydromet expertise in-house and backed by some outside experts as well. These are skills that are hard to come by in North America because this is a new industry, and we are ahead of the curve in many ways. It's one thing to develop a process in a lab and do bench scale test. But when you're in a live environment, like we are, to be able to run a ton of material at a time through a plant. You can learn a lot, you can adjust on the fly with a world-class lab, and we are. Things are getting better batch by batch. And we are tweaking, we are testing, and it's getting the attention of the industry. And so well done. And Mark touched on it, we aim to be very low carbon. I think we have the ability, much like our cobalt plant, to be the greenest, the lowest carbon emitter of the industry, and it's something that's going to be a continuous journey as we strive to continue to build our business. And so, one of the things we will be working on is a desktop study. Now that we've got the data to validate two years plus of metallurgical work, try to provide some guidance to the market on what this business line could mean. I think we are starting to get an appreciation for that. It looks quite attractive. But once we get a little further into our pilot, we'd like to look at what a continuous operation might be 2,500 tonnes to start and then you would continue building circuits from there. So, let me maybe just go back to a higher level on Slide 21 and talk about the outlook for next year and also just market developments. So industry developments and trends continue to provide significant tailwinds to us despite the tough capital markets decision that -- conditions rather and inflationary pressures. The macro outlook is very strong. The most notable point is that first bullet, the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act, is a huge impetus for the onshoring of the supply chain, US$391 billion funds earmarked towards climate and energy change. And embedded within that, of course, is this $7,500 credit, vehicle credit for EV purchases to American consumers, which is premised on onshoring initiatives, whether it be free trade partners, in some instances or implementing facilities here in North America that's providing a lot of incentives to not just build the battery in the cell plants but a partner with companies like Electra to help make that onshoring a reality. And in our part of the supply chain, the refining of critical minerals, you've got 68% of nickel today being refined in China, 73% of cobalt, 93% of manganese. So our broader vision of being a battery materials refiner, not just a cobalt but at the cathode materials, in addition to recycling, really positions us well in the future. And, of course, its backed by the IRA is going to further bolster the EV sales penetration. Goldman Sachs recently projected EV sales of 73 million units by 2040. That's about a sevenfold increase from what we saw last year. And their forecast also predicts that, by 2030, about half of all sales will be electric. And then what that means for black mass, there is a lot of square out that gets generated when you're producing these vehicles. So it's not just the consumer electronics of today nor the old batteries from EVs coming off the road but just the manufacturing process generates a lot of black mass. A black mass is that material when you shred the battery. And that's a 25% growth per year by 2040, 20 million tonnes of material. So for us, the industry, the recycling is still small, but it's a real key focus for our partners, our battery and our OEM partners, given the volume of material and the importance of creating a close supply chain. And so I alluded to this proof partner build model that we are pursuing. Rather than build out the infrastructure, we wanted to focus on the process. A lot of companies do the shredding. Nobody yet is doing the refining, the hydromet refining on the continent that we are at scale on a commercial basis, and we wanted to focus that. On that and, with that, prove it out, partner with the industry and use their balance sheet, use their funds to help build dedicated circuits for them so that we can create that closed loop of battery materials. So this is kind of a validation set with more to follow in the quarters ahead. We are seeing evidence on the ground. BW announced just a massive -- I think it will be the largest battery plant in the continent that's going to be built in Southern Ontario, not far from our refinery. And you're seeing big investments overseas as well, Ford's decision form a syndicate to build a $4.5 billion nickel plant in Indonesia. I mean these are just two rather large examples of a worldwide trend that we are caught up in. And so with all that, commodity prices still do remain volatile. Cobalt prices are down about 35% since the start of the year. Nickel is down 25%. Now what that means for Electra, frankly, look, we are a margin-based business. We are taking material in at a market price into the cobalt plant, and we are selling it on the same basis with the margin. So we are relatively immune not entirely relatively immune from commodity price gyrations through the primary feed refining. Black mass is a little different because, of course, you are buying material but it's multi-commodity, and the margins are such that you can support that volatility. So it does provide a backdrop but not a significant one in terms of our business model and where we think we're going. Our near-term milestones on Slide 22, and then we will go to questions. As busy as 2022 was -- I think '23 will be just as active. Milestones, I'm going to start, of course, with that baseline -- rebaseline engineering report on our refinery. Inflation is as high as it's been since the '70s, and that was the environment we were faced with. So as Craig and Mark alluded to, we've got to do some work and understand what the supply chain delays and what the inflation means to our project. We are well advanced, and we are working hard to get that out to market soon. But yes, costs are going up, and we are delayed, but we will get there. And I want to thank everybody for their patience. Any major project I've been in this industry for 20 years, mining and processing. Risks and uncertainty are part of the project -- part of the project world. And it's about building the right team to make sure you can navigate that effectively. So when you add COVID, supply chain hyperinflation, it's been a tumultuous environment to be sure, but we are going to come back with more concrete plan that we look forward to sharing with you. So pending that, when we do, the funding -- of course, the markets are tough. We've got a number of streams that we are exploring. It's comprised of government industry partners, strategic investors and perhaps the equity markets as well with the debt we just did. So the funding package is multifaceted, and we will keep working on that and hope to bring news as developments evolve. Next, number two, on a real positive note, our first shipment of product out of that refinery. So this is the refinery. You saw the picture. It's a legacy refinery that once produced cobalt, nickel carbonate that we are expanding. And the inside of the refinery is what you see there. And so having recommissioned much of the old refinery, most of the old refinery, that's what is being used today, and that's the gem we've got for our black mass process. And so, with the MHP and the lithium carbonate and a very high-quality graphite product that we are producing, you're going to start to see us shift some products, smaller quantities but very marketable and very sought after by the industry. So that will be a nice achievement for this plant. It's been dormant since 2015. Third bullet here, key equipment is going to continue to arrive at the refinery. Mark touched on that. And then, of course, the Becancour prefeasibility study, we've been invited to build a second refinery, adjacent to Vale's nickel plant in Quebec, where POSCO GM, BASF are also setting up shop, and we plan to move ahead with the prefeasibility study later this year. Longer term, of course, we still have plans in Ontario that would encompass nickel refining manganese refining. That's not a today thing. But that's just the combination of our battery park vision. So, with that, I want to thank you for your time, and let's -- maybe operator, if we could open it up for questions at this point. Thank you.