George Maxwell
Analyst · ROTH Capital. Please go ahead with your question
Al, thank you very much for the introduction. Good morning, everyone and welcome to our first quarter 2021 earnings conference call. It's a pleasure for me to speak with you this morning as my first call as the new Chief Executive. Before we discuss our results, I'd like to take a few moments to thank Cary Bounds for his dedication and valued years of executive leadership at VAALCO. He was an integral part of our success and we wish him well in his future endeavors. At this point, let me review number of significant accomplishments he helped VAALCO achieve this past year that have placed us in an enviable position to achieve meaningful and accretive long term growth. In early 2020, on the heels of a highly successful drilling campaign that included three development wells that exceeded expectations on two successful appraisal wellbores, the world economy and the energy industry was severely impacted by COVID-19. We saw oil prices fall sharply due to the global pandemic, as well as supply and demand imbalances. Despite these difficulties, VAALCO continue to generate positive free cash flow throughout 2020, due in large part to our strong production increase. 2020’s production was 40% higher year-over-year, as a result of our drilling campaign’s success. We also had hedges in place through last year that provided us good protection when oil prices fell dramatically. We were able to overcome the challenges in 2020 while maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility. This gave us the ability to capture to a very accretive acquisition opportunity that arose late in 2020. We closed the acquisition of Sasol 27.8% working interest in Etame in February 2021 utilizing cash on hand. We believe the deal is very accretive to VAALCO as it is improving our margins, significantly increasing our production and the price we paid for net barrel of oil was around $4.90 or sub $5 for 2P CPR reserves. This is excellent pricing. Since we already operate the asset, we expect minimal increase in G&A expense, and there is no integration needed and we will fully – I’m sorry, and we will immediately benefit from the acquisition. With the additional production that transaction brings us, along with the strong recovery in oil pricing, we are projecting continued meaningful free cash flow generation going forward. I’ll now talk a little bit about the Q1 2021 results. From our operational results, we had a very strong first quarter. We produced an average of 5,180 net barrels of oil per day, which was an increase of 11% over the fourth quarter of 2020, driven by the inclusion of one month of the increased NRI production due to the Sasol acquisition. Our second quarter of 2021 production will include an entire quarter with the additional Sasol volumes. As such, mid-point of second quarter production guidance is a 52% increase over a first quarter 2021 average production. With that said, we're continuing to comply with Gabonese OPEC production procurement quarters, which we are now forecasting to continue into the second quarter. In the second quarter of 2021, our production is expected to average between 7,600 and 8,200 net barrels of oil per day. This is a bit lower than the estimated earlier this year for Q2 before we knew the extent of the OPEC procurements. The reduction is purely due to the production procurements and not any unexpected declines. Closing production guidance for the remainder of 2021 includes the full production impact of the Sasol acquisition. During the second half of 2021, we are planning our annual seven day maintenance turnaround, and we are not currently forecasting any material production uplift from the upcoming drilling campaign. Taking into account, natural decline, as well, we expect the second half of 2021 to average between 7,200 and 8,000 barrels of oil net per day, which is a bit higher than our prior second half guidance of 7,100 to 7,800 barrels of oil per day. From an earnings perspective, we were very pleased that our net income of 9.9 million, which on a diluted share basis is just down $0.17 per share. For the first quarter of 2021 this compare very favorably with a net loss of $3.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 and a net loss of 52.8 million in the first quarter of 2020. The first quarter of 2021 reflected stronger revenue due to higher realized pricing and strong sales. I want to also point out that our first quarter 2021 earnings included a non-cash bargain purchase gain. This is further evidence of how attractive this acquisition was for VAALCO. It's pretty rare to be called a gain on an asset purchase, but ours was due to the lower oil price outlook. New sale and purchase agreement was signed last November with price -- and compared to higher oil price outlook on the closing date of February 2025, sorry, February 25, 2021 with the fair value of the reserves associated with the acquisition were determined. We also reported adjusted EBITDA of $80 million in the first quarter, which was more than five times our adjusted EBITDAX in the fourth quarter of 2020. Adjusted EBITDAX for the first quarter of 2021 was likewise significantly higher than the fourth quarter due to increased sales volume and improved realized prices. We are happy with the ongoing strength of oil price environment, and with a significant increase production, we wanted to lock-in a meaningful portion of our free cash flow under adjusted EBITDAX. With that in mind, over the past week, we have added additional – we have added swaps at a decent weighted average price of $66.51 per barrel for 672,533 barrels of oil from May 2021 through October 2021. In total, VAALCO has 70% of its production hedge through October 2021 at weighted average price of $62.27 per barrel. This will allow us to generate and build enough cash to fully fund all of our current capital commitments including our 2021 and 2022 drilling campaign and any potential capital associated with the FSO conversion. In addition, we will still retain potential upside from higher oil prices this year since not all of our production has the new contracts run for just next six months. Looking at our 2021-2022 drilling campaign, turning your attention to the future, our strategic vision is built on accretive growth through organic drilling opportunities and through acquisitions. As you know, the success of our 2019-2020 drilling campaign has built a solid foundation for future building campaigns at Etame. With a successful acquisition close, the acquisition of new 3D seismic over the Etame block complete, and improved oil pricing allowing us to lock in strong cash flow, we believe the time is right to execute another successful drilling campaign to continue adding reserves and production over the next several years at Etame. We're planning to drill up to four wells starting in the fourth quarter of 2021 and finishing in 2022. We are currently expecting to do two development wells and two appraisal wells. That are continued -- there are opportunities for sidetrack re-entries that will reduce growing costs and access low risk reserves and production. We also have appraisal locations that we believe could offer meaningful upside that is not currently reflected within our reserve reports. The final well locations will be determined in conjunction with our processing of the new 3D seismic data we acquire. If the four well programs is successful, the estimated increase in gross field production is 7,000 to 8,000 barrels of oil per day or net 3,500 to 4,100 barrels of oil per day to VAALCO when the drilling campaign is completed in 2022. Hand in hand with a production increase will be margin expansion and per barrel cost reduction. About 90% of our production costs are fixed and as production increases, our per barrel costs will decrease dramatically. Every new barrel we bring online is more economic because of the low variable costs. So as we grow production, we also bring a margin per barrel and reducing our cost per barrel. From a capital standpoint, we estimate the cost of the program is between $115 million and $125 million gross or $73 million to $79 million net to VAALCO. The upcoming drilling campaign has the potential to generate significant additional free cash flow especially when you combined sustained higher oil prices with our low cost operating structure. Our strategy is to utilize the additional free cash flow to fund organic and potentially inorganic transformative growth opportunities in the future. I'll now move on to talk about the recent announcement on the FSO. In line with our strategy to be a low cost operator, we're constantly looking at ways to minimize costs and improve our margins. A number of weeks ago, we announced that we find a non binding letter of intent with only offshore terminals to provide an operate FSO unit at VAALCO’s Etame Marin field offshore Gabon for up to 11 years upon the expiration of the current FPSO contract with BW Offshore which expired in September 2022. Currently our costs equates to around 40% of our total production expense. The Omni FSO proposal could reduce VAALCO’s total operating costs by 15% to 25% when compared to the current FPSO contract during the term of the proposed agreement. The fall in the drilling campaign completion in 2022 and when we bring on the new FSO, we will see a significant increase in production and the total cost with this to decrease substantially. This will dramatically improve our margin per barrel and we will be able to deliver more free cash flow to fund to fund our future growth opportunities. As a reminder, whether we decided to maintain the current FPSO beyond the existing contract for transition to a different option, either development approach would require substantial capital investment costs. As part of the FSO government approach with Omni, we will need to make an estimated capital investment of between $25 million to $32 million net of VAALCO which includes the required field reconfiguration, with approximately 20% will be invested in the second half of 2021 and the balance in 2022. But given the high amount of cost savings, we expect a payback of less than three years on this investment. In the new field configuration, the FSO would store and offload the production and processing would be completed on the existing platforms. We’re engaging in further discussions with the attempt to finalize and definitive agreements too. I would now like to give you a quick update on activity in Equatorial Guinea. We have a substantial working interest in Block P. And we are evaluating several developments step out in exploration opportunities in Block P. We have several attractive undeveloped discoveries on the Block from prior operators. And given the current oil price outlook, we believe we can economically develop these discoveries. We’re really excited about Equatorial Guinea and we're working to profitably exploit resource potential and plan to update you in the second quarter with more information. So in closing, in this first statement, in summary, our outstanding employees continue to operate and execute on VAALCO’s strategy of accretive growth and free cash flow generation through cost effectively maintaining core production. We have a strong balance sheet, and with our increased production base and new hedges, we have locked in sufficient cash flow to fund our entire upcoming capital obligations plus maintaining upside. Looking at the updated Q1 supplemental presentation on our website, you will see that at $65 realized oil price, which is about where we believe we are taking into account our hedges and current stock pricing, VAALCO will generate around $65 million in free cash flow this year excluding before CapEx. When you look at our current stock price, we're currently trading at 2.5 times, our multiple free cash flow for 2021 and in 2022, assuming continued strong pricing with additional production coming online from the drilling campaign and the potential for significant cost reductions following the FSO [ph] changes, we should generate even more free cash flow. So with those notes, I would like to turn the call over to Jason to share more detail on our financial results. Thank you. Jason?