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Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 22, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Eldorado Gold Corporation Year-End 2012 and Fourth Quarter Financial and Operating Results Conference Call. This call is also being webcast and is available on the Eldorado Gold website at www.eldoradogold.com. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Nancy Woo. Please go ahead, Ms. Woo.

Nancy E. Woo

Management

Thank you, operator. This presentation includes statements that may constitute forward-looking statements or information. Any forward-looking statements made and information provided reflect our current plans, estimates and views. Forward-looking statements are information which include all statements that are not historical facts, are based on certain material factors and assumptions and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in or suggested by the forward-looking statements or information. Consequently, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements and information. The information contained in our annual information form and in our annual quarterly management's discussion and analysis available on our website and on SEDAR, identifies factors and assumptions upon which the forward-looking statements or information are based on and the risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ. All forward-looking statements and information made or provided during this presentation are expressed, qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement and the cautionary statements contained in our press release dated February 22, 2013. I will now turn the call over to Paul Wright, CEO of Eldorado Gold.

Paul N. Wright

Management

Well, thank you, Nancy, and good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our year-end and fourth quarter financial and operating results conference call. In Vancouver today we have Norm Pitcher, Paul Skayman, Fabiana Chubbs, and the voice you just heard from, Nancy Woo. The format today will be slightly different than norm, as I'm presently in transit from Greece. I will, in a few minutes, bring you current on the recent events in Greece that affect our business interest there. Paul Skayman will then provide details on our fourth quarter and year-end operating performance. Norm will then follow-through with commentary on our updated year-end reserves and resources statement, as well as taking you through our operating guidance for 2013. This will be followed by a review of our financial results provided by Fabiana, and then we'll open up for questions. As many of you are aware, the company, over the weekend, was subject to what can only be described as a terrorist attack on its infrastructure at our Skouries Project in Northern Greece. Fortunately, none of our employees were subject to serious injury, and the damage to our infrastructure was limited in financial terms to approximately $1 million of expense and will not impede our progress more than approximately 2 weeks. Indeed, the day after the event, our crews were actively cleaning up the site and that continues through the course of the week. This action was promptly condemned by the government and by all major political parties and by the broad Greek population. Investigation is being vigorously advanced by the country's specialized antiterrorist team, who have taken on the responsibility for the investigation. Police have enhanced our security at our existing operations, and we are undertaking an independent review of our security systems, which will inevitably be further…

Paul J. Skayman

Management

Thanks, Paul. Good morning, everyone. Operations, I'll start with Kisladag. Kisladag had another good quarter. We produced 78,000 -- sorry, sold 78,000 ounces for the quarter, bringing our annual total to 289,000, which is pretty well exactly on budget. Cash costs for the quarter were at $324, giving us $332 for the year, a fair bit under budget due to high-grade material being placed on the pad. Inventory levels increased. Gold in inventory increased during 2012, and that will report to production during 2013. At Efemçukuru, the mine and treatment plants are performing on budget. We traded 93,000 tonnes of ore at 9.3, and poured approximately 25,000 ounces into concentrate. We sold 37,000 ounces in concentrate during the quarter, and we intend getting -- selling the rest of the inventory within Q1 2013. Work continues on the metallurgical test work to determine the optimal process that the KCTP plant at Kisladag. Tanjianshan continues to perform on budget. We produced 26,000 ounces during Q4 at $4.27 an ounce, bringing annual production in the 111,000 ounces at $4.15 per ounce. There's really nothing else to report on TJS. At Jinfeng, we produced 21,100 ounces at $986 an ounce in the quarter, bringing 2012 production to 108,000 at a cash cost of $8.17. Higher costs reported were due to the lower-grade material being processed and the resulting lower ounce production. The quarter's production was low compared to budget as we anticipated excess to open pit ounces that were delayed due to mining delays in the lower pit. Equivalent was used to capital stripping in the interim. Q1 is also expected to be a low production quarter, but we expect to get into open pit ore in Q2, which will increase ounces from there on. At White Mountain, we produced 25,000 ounces of gold in Q4 at $607 an ounce, bringing our 2012 production to 81,000 ounces at $6.07 an ounce, bringing our 2012 production to 81,000 ounces at $6.25. The ounce production was on budget with slightly higher costs, due to increase of mine development requirements and backdoor placement needs to sustain future production. Vila Nova had a good quarter. We sold 220,000 tonnes of iron ore, bringing the total for the year to 604,000 tonnes at an average price of $76 a tonne. Operating costs over the same period were in the order of $60 per tonne. Iron ore prices recovered during Q4. At Stratoni in Greece, the mine continues to perform well, produced nearly 16,000 tonnes of concentrate at a cash cost of $8.43 a tonne. Production was approximately on target. Olympias. We continue commissioning the tailings treatment plant in Q4. We realized our first concentrate sales in Q4, with approximately 800 ounces of gold being sold. Our commissioning continues, and we are starting to see steady improvement in production levels. With that, I'll hand it over to Norm.

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

Thank you, Paul. I'm going to take you through the 2013 guidance. I'll talk a little bit about the updated resource and reserves statement, development projects and on to exploration. Because of the amount that we have to talk about, I'm not going to go into huge amount of detail on any particular project, but I would refer you to our guidance that we released in January and our press release that came out earlier this morning. In 2013, we plan to produce between 705,000 and 760,000 ounces of gold at cash cost of $515 to $530. Let's take a look sort of mine by mine. We'll start with Kisladag, which will produce between 290,000 and 300,000 ounces at cash cost of $350 to $360 per ounce. Capital costs for the year are estimated at $200 million, which is roughly broken down into half sort of sustaining and half construction for the Phase IV expansion. Phase IV expansion will continue in 2013 and is scheduled for completion in Q4 2014. At Efemçukuru, we will produce between 125,000 and 135,000 ounces during 2013 at a cash cost of $470 to $490 per ounce. Approximately 25,000 ounces of this production will come from existing concentrate stockpiles. Capital expenditures at Efemçukuru will be in the range of $44 million, of which approximately $15 million is a pretty rough estimate for modifications to KCTV. On to China. Jinfeng, 2013, will produce between 105,000 and 115,000 ounces at cash cost of $800 to $820 per ounce. As Paul Skayman mentioned, we get back into the open pit ore late in the second quarter, and capital expenditures for the year are estimated at $55 million, which includes approximately $22 million for capitalized waste stripping. At White Mountain, in 2013, will produce between 60,000 and 70,000 ounces…

Fabiana E. Chubbs

Management

Thank you, Norm, and good morning, everyone. I will go through the financial statements, highlighting changes in significant accounts. Commencing with the balance sheet, we ended the year with a cash and cash equivalent balance of $817 million, compared to a balance of $394 million at the end of 2011. The $423 million increase in cash is mainly related to cash flows generated from operating activities, net proceeds received from the senior notes issued in December, the net uses of cash in our capital program and dividend payments. The $70 million increase in accounts receivable relates mainly to concentrate sales at Efemçukuru and at Stratoni. On the liability side, our debt balance increased by $512 million as a result of the senior notes that were issued in December for $600 million net of $70 million prepayment on our debt with Chinese banks. The acquisition of European Goldfields, completed in Q1 of this year, had a substantial impact on the property, plant and equipment balance, which increased to $2.7 billion; goodwill, which increased by $474 million; accounts payable, which increased by $117 million; and deferred income taxes, which increased by $496 million. Moving on to the income statement. Net income attributable to shareholders of the company was $305 million, or $0.44 per share, compared to $319 million, or $0.58 per share, in 2011. The main factors that impacted our profits are compared to the year end in 2011, where high production costs due to higher operating cost at our Chinese operation, higher share administrative expense on transaction cost as result of European Goldfield acquisition, net of lower income tax expense. Revenues from gold sales for the year were at the same level for 2011, as the lower production levels at Jinfeng was offset by sales of concentrate at Efemçukuru at higher…

Paul N. Wright

Operator

Well, thank you, Fabby. And operator, we'll open up to questions now.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Cosmos Chiu from CIBC.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · CIBC

Got a few questions here. I guess, first off, on the increase in the tax rate increase, maybe if you can comment on if you have any stability agreements in place. And what I'm trying to get to is there the risk of negative impact from any other future tax increases going forward?

Paul N. Wright

Operator

Well, we don't have any stability agreements. I mean, it's not -- fortunately not. I mean, it's a European community country and there are no stability agreements in countries that are members of the EU. I think, we've commented previously that we have advocated to the government that it would be appropriate for there to be a royalty or revision to the mining law and a royalty applied. That hasn't happened yet. I would expect at some point it will, and I would expect it, however, to be in an appropriately pragmatic level. I think it's important to understand that the increase in taxes, corporate taxes and personal taxes in Greece was very much as a result of pressure from the troika. It wasn't necessarily something that was generated internally from the Greek politicians themselves.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · the Greek politicians themselves

Certainly. Maybe if I can dig deeper into it. In terms of the $130 million charge that you'll be taking in Q1 2013, I'm actually surprised there's a onetime charge at this point in time given that you haven't had any production yet in Greece. You haven't made any profits yet in Greece, yet it seems like you have to take a charge. So maybe if you can walk me through maybe the nature of that -- and if it's actually going to be payable?

Fabiana E. Chubbs

Management

No. Cosmos, if I may clarify, this is an accounting entry, it's a noncash item. At the time of acquisition, we have to recognize the liability based on the purchase price that was allocated to the asset. Now that liability was calculated at the 20%, that deferred tax, and now has to be recalculated at the 26%, and that's why you have the charge. I mean, it's an accounting entry that we had to do. It has no cash impact.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · the Greek politicians themselves

Okay. Great. Maybe if I can switch gears a little bit. At Efemçukuru, I guess in Q4 of 2012, with sort of sales of the concentrate, we got the first look in terms of what cost could look like, and indeed that was what, $583 per ounce? In your 2013 guidance, you're looking for costs which are lower, at about $470 an ounce, on the lower end. If you can walk me through in terms of what steps you plan to take in 2013 in terms of lowering that cash cost, I think that would be helpful.

Paul J. Skayman

Management

Well, I guess, we're seeing a more consistent production. Q4 we're still sort of messing around with pre-commercial issues and inventory that would have been sold -- that would have been generated at a higher cost.

Paul N. Wright

Operator

Yes. Another significant item, Cosmos, is we now have our -- we've now got the backfill plant operating, basically, with the way it should be. And before that, a good portion of last year anyway, we were actually placing waste rock, cemented waste rock underground with equipment. So as you can imagine that was more expensive. And we've also got the underground ore bins finished now, so everything is going through the underground crusher as opposed to previously. And part of last year, we were trucking out the temporary crusher and then trucking back to the mill. So those costs basically go away.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · CIBC

Okay. Great. And maybe in that context, Norm, I noticed that your reserve grade at Efemçukuru actually decreased year-over-year. Now the reserve grade, the new reserve grade is actually lower than what you have been kind of putting through as a head grade last year. How should we look at that in terms of 2013 and kind of onwards?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

Well, I mean, we gave grades for 2013. It all depends at Efemçukuru where you're mining, right. I mean, the North Ore -- the Middle Ore Shoot is higher grade than the South Ore Shoot. I guess, about the same as the North, but the North is a little bit narrower. I think going forward you have to sort of use the -- assume the average reserve grade going out.

Cosmos Chiu - CIBC World Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst · CIBC

But in 2013, should I be looking at something that's similar to 2012 or should I be looking for something that's similar to like the reserve grade?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

No. I mean, in our guidance we gave the grade of -- I mean, this year we're processing about 400,000 tonnes at 9.3 grams a tonne. And then really, again, as I said, it's just a function of where we're mining. Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our following question is from Dan Rollins from RBC Capital Markets.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Just a couple of questions for you guys. Norm, I just wonder if you could touch on the change in -- it looks like the reserve grade at White Mountain. Pretty big drop there, about 3.68 on the last reserve's down to 3.21. Has there been something going on there with the change in the block model at White Mountain?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

No, not really. Again, it was kind of where we're mining and where we're sort of -- and where we're headed to now. I think of note there, Dan, is take a look at the inferred resource at White Mountain which is really, I think -- if you can sort of remember that, remember the long section, if you saw it, there's a pod down to the North that we're just starting to access now that's been inferred. We weren't able to drill it this year, basically, because of access constraints. We will be able to this year and expect we'll bring some of that up into M&I and hopefully, into proven and probable, which I think will at least get our grade sort of back up to where it was before.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Perfect. That helps very much. And then maybe just touching on the payables. I know -- if you could touch on it, where do you think payable lies for the concentrate produced at Efemçukuru right now? Is it in line with what you had said at the mine tour?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

Yes. Yes, I mean, yes.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

And then at Olympias, is it so -- if we look at a value there, roughly about 50% of the growth value you're getting on a net basis?

Paul N. Wright

Operator

A little better than that if I understand the statement. Yes, we're doing a little bit better than 50%.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Perfect. And I just want to touch base just on the -- just on one of the inferred resources. At Kisladag, there's a pretty large inferred resource there, about 4 million ounces. I know it's lower grade, which may make it menial to the [indiscernible] leach. Do you expect some of that to start coming in or is that peripheral to the current pit design?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

It's -- it's -- yes, a little bit of both, I guess. I mean, some of it is peripheral and some of it is below.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Okay. So some of that will start coming in as you drill down and do the -- you take the pit down a little bit deeper?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

Presumably, yes.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Okay. And at Kisladag, are you still seeing this sort of -- this area which you viewed as waste material before, where you're getting a much better grade sort of the impact we saw last year, are you still seeing that or has that sort of dissipated now?

Paul N. Wright

Operator

Well, it's probably already been brought in to M&I, I mean, based on the drilling and the information we had brought in to M&I and reserves already. So I mean, we're not seeing -- I guess, we're not now seeing a lot of waste what we thought was waste turned into ore now.

Dan Rollins - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets

Okay. So that was more of a onetime event?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

The following question is from John Kratochwil from Canaccord Genuity.

John Kratochwil - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity

I've got a quick question here on Efemçukuru, the reserve update. I noticed -- I know some people have mentioned the grade, but I noticed the ounces came down quite a bit, but the gold price assumption went from $8.25, I assume, to $12.50, as there was no other mention in the reserve notes. Is there -- could you explain what the reason was behind the reduction in ounces there?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

Well, really, I mean, it's based on grade and your grade is -- at Efemçukuru, you got a fairly well-defined vein structure there, and really changing the gold price does not have much effect. It's probably one of our least sensitive to gold price change projects. Yes, so it's really just more -- we've done a lot more drilling and there's more information based on mining, and that's where we are.

Operator

Operator

The following question is from Salim Ben Mansour from BMO Capital Markets.

Salim Ben Mansour - BMO Capital Markets Canada

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets

Just an update on the Skouries. I know following the unfortunate events on Sunday, there was some more positive news that came out on the wire yesterday announcing a fast track. Could you comment on that?

Paul N. Wright

Operator

Salim, I think the article you're referring to reflects what I mentioned in my introductory remarks. I mean, as part of our discussions -- discussions with myself and the Prime Minister regarding not only Skouries but extended to the Perama Environmental Impact Assessment approval. It was made clear that the Prime Minister is supportive of practically finishing off the sign of that approval within the next 10 days is an undertaking he made to me and then subsequently made to the news media. So obviously, we're looking forward to seeing that.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The following question is from Kerry Smith from Haywood Securities.

Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Haywood Securities

Paul, have you had any other demonstrations or sort of gatherings of people that are opposed to what you're doing in Greece at any of the other projects or is it only been at Skouries?

Paul N. Wright

Operator

No, no. The demonstrations are limited strictly to the Skouries Project. And as I've said before, I mean, as you appreciate from the trip last year, it's a greenfields -- a greenfields project. We have been and continue to engage in tree cutting and it's the type of location that's optically attractive. The operations at Stratoni or exploration at Piavitsa or operations at Olympias had not been subject to any demonstrations at all.

Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Haywood Securities

Okay. And for Perama, if you get the EIA approved in 10 days or 2 weeks or whatever, then at that point in time, you would be prepared to start construction immediately then?

Paul N. Wright

Operator

We have a technical report that has to be approved as we did it at European Goldfields. And when we acquired European Goldfields, we acquired it with an EIA. There's a technical report that then is submitted to the Minister of Environment. Then the turnaround time on this is usually very quick, quick. That report is essentially prepared and will be submitted within a week approved of the EIA. Once that is approved, then we would be in a position to start construction activities.

Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Haywood Securities

Okay. And so then they actually have to approve that technical report or you just submit it for their review effectively?

Paul N. Wright

Operator

Yes. There's an approval required. But I mean, it is perfunctory. I mean, it doesn't require any new information. There's no -- there isn't a detailed -- there is no new information per se.

Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Haywood Securities

Okay. Okay. And then at Olympias, you talked in the disclosure for this quarter about the Phase II and III, which is 450,000 tonnes going to 850,000 tonnes a year, that, that could be increased. Could you talk a bit about what the magnitude of that increase might be and why it's contemplated that it would increase?

Paul N. Wright

Operator

Well, I think -- I mean, and Norm will probably jump in here and add a few comments, but it really relates to the fact that the Olympias orebody, when modeled, it was modeled as a lead zinc orebody. And this is something that we didn't appreciate, frankly, until after we acquired the assets and were looking in detail at the drill hole database. I mean, there's substantive gold values that have not been included in the geological model. And there's quite a large exercise we have under way, which included relogging of 70,000 meters. We're optimistic it's going to change the geological model and change the resource model in a positive manner. And then inevitably, affect the reserves, which ultimately affect production rate. On top of that, we have, as Norm has highlighted, we're off to a good start with Piavitsa, with our first seasonal drilling putting 1.7 million ounces of resources on the books. So I think between the 2, the likelihood of an increased reserve leading to a larger production rate at Olympias and the impact of Piavitsa, there's a very real chance that the ultimate production rate at Olympias plant would be -- could be significantly larger. But I mean, that's work under way. It won't affect Phase II. We don't see it affecting Phase II at this point.

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

Yes. In addition, Kerry, you've also got -- I mean, the orebody is still open down plunge, and there was a drill hole drilled quite some time ago. It was about 650 meters down plunge that hit the orebody. So it's basically open between there and open down from there as well.

Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Haywood Securities

Okay, okay. And then at Efemçukuru, if you take your guidance, Norm, for this year in terms of cash costs and production and tonnes milled, you could kind of get a rough sort of $150 a tonne milled all-in cost. Is that -- how would that cost change like by, say, 2014 or 2015? Like where would you think the cost, the total cost per tonne milled would kind of stabilize out at for that project?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

I think we're probably getting close to that. How do you -- run me by your numbers again?

Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Haywood Securities

I just took the cost per ounce, the middle of the range, $480 an ounce times the ounces divided by the tonnes milled and that gives you a cost per tonne as a rough.

Paul N. Wright

Operator

I mean, the other thing, Kerry, you have to think about a little bit is that we're presently working on looking at potentially expanding Efemçukuru. So I mean, it's not -- that's not -- nothing that's going to affect 2013 or 2014, but it may very well come to effect in 2015. Given the relatively large fixed cost base you would see [indiscernible].

Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Haywood Securities

Yes. I figured that, right. But so let's say for 2014, Norm or Paul, will like -- do you think that cost per tonne will be significantly lower or modestly lower than kind of the 2013 number?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

I'd say probably similar.

Kerry Smith - Haywood Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Haywood Securities

Similar. So in that $150 range, okay. So really it would be the expansion that would bring that number down, that's probably kind of a reasonable run rate at the existing throughput rate of 1,200 tonnes a day?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

The following question is from Anita Soni from Crédit Suisse. Anita Soni - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: My usual boring question, Norm. What's the strip ratio at Kisladag?

Paul N. Wright

Operator

Oh, Anita, what would we do without you?

Norman S. Pitcher

Management

Sometimes, Anita, I'm just going to say I have no idea. This year's strip ratio is about around 1.7:1. Anita Soni - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I'm sorry. I was looking for the last quarter as well.

Paul J. Skayman

Management

Last quarter, was a little higher at 3.5. We were -- we're moving some extra waste because we recaptured the 12.5. So we turned everything over to waste removal using the extra capacity that we had while we couldn't mine ore. So it's 3.5:1 for Q4.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no following questions registered at this time. I would like to return the meeting to Mr. Wright.

Paul N. Wright

Operator

Well, thank you, operator, and thank you to everybody who's participated on the call. And we appreciate you attending a change schedule for us today, and wish you all a good weekend.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.