James Williamson
Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead
Sure. Thanks for the question, Elyse. And I’m going to be a little expansive here because I do think this is connected to a number of critical trends within the business. I mean, first, to take you back to a little bit of what we said on the last quarter’s call around how we expected this to play out, we sort of laid out, look, this capital deployment really begins with the 7/1 renewal, which is for us about $1 billion of expiring premium. It would continue through the end of 2023, where you’ve got about another $1 billion of premium. And then it would complete at the Jan 1 renewal, which, at this point, our expiring book will be somewhere on the order of $6 billion. And that proportionality would account for the capital deployment. And that’s playing out as we expected. In fact, I would add to that, that we did have some opportunities in a very targeted way outside of Florida, but at the 6/1 renewal to take meaningfully increased lines with some of our core cedents, which were very attractive. That continued into 7/1. We grew strongly at that renewal and we did it at excellent rate. In fact, if you look at the rate we printed for North America in the second quarter of [‘47], we actually exceeded that in many cases for the June and July renewals. So we feel really good about that. And then as Juan had indicated, we participated on a number of private or closely brokered placements, and there’s a variety of things in there, whether it’s a large layer on top of the Cat program for a global cedent down to fact placements to deal with sort of dislocated single risks and everything in between. And so we’re on our front feet that way and taking advantage of those opportunities as they come to us. And I would also add, obviously, I’m focusing here on property Cat, but we’ve also taken advantage of trends in casualty where we continue to grow in some of the specialty lines. And one example I would cite in the second quarter is our aviation book, which on the back of really incredible rate change was up over 50% year-over-year at again, terrific economics. And so as we’ve executed this, we’ve been focused on a number of key priorities. And before you even really talk about growth, it’s portfolio quality. And so all the things that we’ve mentioned in our last call continue to play out. Attachment points are going up. Our average attachment point is moving further out in the curve. And certainly, you saw proof of that in our second quarter Cat print, which was simply outstanding. You saw us adjust our portfolio in Florida. A number of the Demotech rated Florida specialists, frankly, did not pass our financial underwriting standards, and we moved away from them and redeploy the capital elsewhere. So we are nimble that way, and we’re as focused on portfolio quality as we are on top line, even more so. And the other thing I would say in terms of priorities is over 90% of the incremental capacity that we’ve deployed has been with our existing clients. These are people we know well and people who we play with across a wide variety of lines. And so that incremental Cat capacity not only is a tremendous opportunity in itself, it also further strengthens our core relationships. And so as you play all that forward to Jan 1, our expectation is that we’ll be confronted with just excellent prospective returns at the renewal. Why do we believe that? Pretty fundamental stuff. The first is that the supply-demand imbalance that’s been playing out in the reinsurance market hasn’t fundamentally changed. And we’ve certainly seen analysis that suggests there’s still a very meaningful gap between supply and demand. And I would posit to you that demand is pent-up and growing rapidly. And that’s because I think many scenes weren’t able to complete their queue. There are 1/1 placements the way they wanted to. They’re facing a risk environment that’s not getting any easier, climate change being at the front of that line, but also inflation, geopolitics and other factors. And then obviously, while we had a terrific second quarter in Cats, many primary underwriters did not. In fact, it’s a record level or near record level of second quarter Cat activity, particularly in the United States, but also in other markets around the world. So a really tough spot to be in as a primary underwriter and that’s increasing their demand for reinsurance. We’ve also seen no capital formation of any meaningful extent, obviously, putting our capital raise aside and I’ve heard of nothing meaningful in the pipeline that’s going to really change that. The other factor that I think is important is if you go back to 1/1, many of the panels that got put in place particularly for the global cedents, included a number of reinsurers that frankly, I think they’d rather not be trading with very extensively. And as Juan had mentioned in his opening remarks, there is a global flight to quality happening, and we think we’ll continue to benefit from that at 1/1, where we’ll have an opportunity to help our clients clean up those panels with a much higher quality underwriter. And then the last piece that I’ll cite, and I think it’s important, it’s a little harder to quantify or maybe impossible, but there’s an underwriter psychology component at play, which is there’s a reason this market hardened and it’s because underwriters have taken a number of years of Cat losses. And I haven’t met anybody in this industry who because they may have some additional capital coming into 1/1 wants to trade down or auction down pricing in property Cat. That’s just – that is not the mentality that exists in our industry. So our expectation going into 1/1 is that we’re going to push hard for increased rates. We think the industry should be pushing hard for more given the experience we’ve had in all those external factors we talked about. We’re going to be looking to grow not just property Cat, which we will grow meaningfully, but casualty, specialty and a number of other areas. We are globally diversified, so we can drive growth in multiple regions. We’re also diversified by line, so we can grow Cat, non-Cat property specialty, you name it. And we fully expect that we will complete the deployment of the incremental capital at the 1/1 renewal at outstanding terms. So hopefully, that gives you the color you’re looking for.