Philip Evans
Analyst · Manav Patnaik with Barclays
Thank you, Sally. As Sally has outlined, we are in the midst of implementing a broad strategy designed to improve our execution, more effectively utilize data and technology, recruit experienced industry executives, focus the organization on creating value for our customers and improve Emerald's culture to the benefit of our employees. Having been more involved in the operational side of the business over the last nine months as we conducted our CEO search, I saw first-hand how some of our larger shows are handling the various issues we've discussed on prior calls. I'm confident that Sally's initiatives will directly address the core issues that have led to their underperformance and which are impacting our results and our full-year guidance.I'm also confident that our challenges are well within our control to solve and the strong competitive positioning of our shows is still intact. This morning I'm going to briefly review our financial results and spend the majority of my time reviewing our larger shows in the context of the steps we are quickly taking to stabilize their performance. Turning to our second quarter results, revenue increased by $24.6 million or 31.4% to $103.0 million compared to the year-ago quarter. This growth reflected a net $23.7 million addition from several show scheduling differences in the second quarter of 2019, most notably Outdoor Retail or Summer Market and GlobalShop, which both staged in the second quarter this year versus the third and first quarters of 2018, respectively. As a result, the second quarter is now our second-largest quarter of the year by revenue, with the first quarter still being the largest. The two acquisitions that we completed in the second half of last year contributed $3.6 million of revenues in the second quarter, while our organic revenues adjusted to reflect scheduling differences declined by 3.6%.Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2019 of $41.2 million compared with $48.9 million for the equivalent 2018 period, adjusted for the impact of show timing differences. The decrease of $7.7 million or 15.7% was mainly driven by the flow-through of our shortfall in organic revenues together with higher operating costs, partly due to the planned incremental event and organization investments. Free cash flow, which we define as net cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures, was $27.8 million for the second quarter of 2019 compared to $31.6 million in the second quarter of 2018, a decrease of 12%. At the end of June our outstanding term loan balance was $533.7 million, and we had $5 million outstanding on the revolving credit facility. With cash on hand of $12.4 million, this resulted in a net debt of $526.3 million and a net leverage ratio of 3.6 times our last 12 months adjusted EBITDA. Now let me turn to our second quarter shows.Outdoor Retail or Summer Market, our largest show in the quarter, was flat in revenues with slight growth in booth revenues offset by lower commissions and other non-booth revenue streams. HD Expo and COUTURE, our next two largest shows by revenue, increased their respective revenues by low to mid-single-digit percentages, which we were pleased with. All three of these shows are clear and distant leaders in their markets, and in our view, capable of stronger growth rates than we experienced this quarter with a more active data and technology-enabled nurturing of exhibitor and attendee relationships and a deeper understanding of the drivers of customer satisfaction within these markets. The new skills and approaches we're starting to deploy should help us accelerate the growth of these shows.We experienced a double-digit percentage revenue decline at IRCE, driven by lower conference revenues and some moderate softness in the GlobalShop show, which co-located with IRCE for the first time this year under the RetailX brand. The initial post-show research indicates that the new combined RetailX show gained traction with crossover attendees. However, the market reaction was not universally positive. We're conducting further research and, at a minimum, we need to improve the integration of the experience and execution of the show next year.If we had used a robust event plan framework for this co-location like the one we've recently introduced, it's likely that many of these problems we experienced would have been avoided. The RetailX performance accounted for a significant portion of the modest shortfall in the second quarter relative to expectations as of the last call. Our ICFF show, which has grown strongly over the last five years, experienced a double-digit percentage revenue decline this year, primarily due to softness from European exhibitors, partly attributable to Brexit uncertainty and also a date conflict with our own HD Expo that led some exhibitors to miss the ICFF show. As I noted on our first quarter call, we also suffered from resource conflicts and issues that we plan to address in order to continue this brand's robust historical growth rates in the future.Turning to our expectations for the largest Emerald events in the second half of the year; let me start with ASD, which opened last Saturday and closed yesterday. Overall, we were satisfied with the show's financial performance, which we expect to be slightly favorable to our earlier expectations. We anticipate that revenues will be broadly flat versus the 2018 equivalent show, a significant improvement versus last year's trajectory despite our international sourcing section continuing to feel the effects of the ongoing trade tensions with China. This is a solid performance and supports our view that this franchise has stabilized.The next largest show staging after ASD is New York NOW, which opens on August 9. As I discussed in detail on our first-quarter earnings call, we're introducing numerous new features at this show that we believe will continue the brand's positive momentum toward stability and ultimately to growth. Building on the Retail Renaissance theme, these new initiatives include adding an epicurean kitchen area to attract high-end kitchenware exhibitors, additional health and wellness and upscale jewelry areas, several designer features, multiple experiential elements and a launch of a second edition of the co-located National Stationery Show. As we did with the February show earlier this year, we've actively curated areas of the lifestyle section to allow space for our JA Summer Jewelry Show, to be co-located with New York NOW.Based on current pacing, we expect a revenue percentage decline in the low teens, which reflects a slightly lower recovery than we expected but would still represent a notable improvement in the show's revenue trajectory versus our winter show. The new tools and approaches that Sally described earlier should be additive to the efforts that the team has made on the last few shows to improve the show experience for exhibitors and attendees. We're excited to see the impact of these efforts for the Winter 2020 show. In the first half of September we'll stage our Surf Expo Summer and CEDIA Expo shows. Both of these are pacing below our previous expectations. In the case of Surf Expo, whose winter show earlier this year was flat in revenues, we're seeing the effects of a challenging board sports category with consolidation in the paddle sector and a shrinking wakeboard market. We're also experiencing some continued hesitation caused by the hurricane that shortened the show two years ago. And overall, we're expecting a mid-single-digit percentage revenue decline.At this year's show we'll be launching a new visual brand identity, rebranding and repositioning our Demo Day, adding more show floor features and expanding our education programs. We expect to have a successful show that will provide a basis for future growth. CEDIA Expo takes place the following week in Denver and is expected to be broadly flat in revenues after numerous years of growth. The show has been adversely affected by shifting exhibitor buying behaviors tied to the prolonged trade disputes with China, as well as some supplier consolidation in the channel.That said, we'll introduce several new pavilions and categories at the show, including wellness, security solutions and a new product pavilion, and we strongly believe in the attractiveness of this market sector and the long-term growth opportunities it provides. In the first week of November we'll stage our second Outdoor Retailer Winter Market in Denver which, as you may recall, is the third OR show added last year to complement the long-standing and successful January and Summer editions. The outdoor industry is taking some time to adapt to the three-show cadence despite the original request from key industry influence and strong industry support for the show to be held at the start of the winter buying season. We continue to consult with the industry; however, we've moderated our expectations for this year's show based on current pacing trends.Finally, let me talk about Boutique Design New York, or BDNY, which stages at the Javitz Center the second week of November. The show is continuing on its strong growth trajectory and is pacing to grow its booth revenues by a high-single-digit percentage, as expected. We're excited to have acquired this excellent franchise last year. With approximately 95% of our anticipated revenues for the year already sold, we believe we have good visibility into the likely outlook for the full year.Relative to what we conveyed last quarter, we've reduced our revenue guidance for the year at the midpoint by approximately $15 million, of which approximately $3 million is related to underperformance in the second quarter, predominantly in the RetailX shows, ICFF, and in our other marketing services portfolio. The remaining approximately $12 million of this reduction is due to lower forecasted revenue in the second half of the year across a number of our shows, including Surf Expo, CEDIA Expo, Outdoor Retailer Winter Market and also across our other marketing services portfolio. We've reduced our adjusted EBITDA guidance by approximately $20 million, of which approximately $3 million reflected the flow-through of our second quarter revenue shortfall. Approximately $14 million of the reduction is attributable to the projected $12 million second half revenue shortfall expectations, partly reflecting a slightly unfavorable show mix, with the remaining $3 million due to the forecasted incremental costs of the new management team and several new corporate-level initiatives.We've continued to execute against our brand investment plan, as we believe it's an important component of our efforts to stabilize performance and position us for future growth. That said, we're working with our new management team to reevaluate our entire cost base in the context of our more progressive and data-driven operating model in order to balance continued base spend against spending on the new strategic initiatives discussed by Sally today. We're also assessing the ROI on our current investments to ensure they are generating tangible returns. Revenue for the year is now expected to range between $362 million and $369 million.The aggregate impact of the prolonged trade tensions with China and Brexit factors is projected to constitute approximately one-third of our year-over-year revenue decline, slightly more than we anticipated at the time of our last call. The main factors determining the scale of our revenue guidance range are the uncertainties related to rest-of-the-year conference revenues, commissions and print and digital advertising revenues, all of which are less easily projected revenue streams. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to finish within the range of $118 million and $125 million, while free cash flow is expected to fall within the range of $60 million and $65 million. The full list of updated guidance metrics is set out in our earnings release.Looking at both our projected performance for the full year 2019 versus 2018 and the change in our guidance ranges since our last earnings call, we've clearly not been effective in reducing our costs as quickly as revenues have softened. This fact, together with the additional investments and increased overhead, has magnified the effect of our revenue shortfalls this year on our adjusted EBITDA. As just noted, we plan to rigorously and thoroughly review our costs and investments to identify profit improvement opportunities.Turning to capital allocation, our approach has not changed. We will continue to be disciplined and remain focused on enhancing shareholder value. Our regular dividend commitment is well established, and we've settled most of the revolving credit facility balance that we had entering the year. As Sally has indicated, we expect to be opportunistic and selective with our M&A program in the short term. We're also announcing today the approval of a new share repurchase program, whereby the company is authorized to buy shares of its common stock up to the aggregate value of $30 million. The company anticipates funding any share repurchases from its cash on hand and permitted borrowings under the company's credit facilities.I'll now hand the call back to Sally for her concluding remarks.