GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF) Q2 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Hello everyone, thank you for joining us and welcome to the GrafTech's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. I will now hand the conference over to Mike Dillon, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Good morning and welcome to GrafTech International's second quarter 2026 earnings call. Thank you for joining us. Joining me on the call are Tim Flanagan, Chief Executive Officer, and Rory O'Donnell, Chief Financial Officer. We'll begin with opening comments on our key strategic initiatives. Rory will then provide color on our quarterly results, outlook, and other financial matters. After closing comments by Tim, we will then open the call to questions. Turning to our next slide. As a reminder, our comments today may include forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, performance, trends, and strategies. These statements are based on current expectations that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by forward-looking statements are shown here. We will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures in these slides, including the relevant non-GAAP reconciliations. You can find these slides in the Investor Relations section of our website at graftech.com. A replay of the call will also be available on our website. I'm now turning the call over to Tim.

Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us today. The second quarter marked another period of meaningful progress for GrafTech. We delivered strong sales volume growth, increased production and capacity utilization, and further improved our manufacturing cost structure. We also reaffirmed our full year sales volume and cost expectations while advancing the commercial and strategic initiatives we introduced earlier this year to improve both profitability and strengthen our business. In addition, we believe the underlying fundamentals of our end markets are moving in a positive direction. We are taking decisive actions to strengthen our business in the areas where we can make the greatest difference today. Taken together, we believe that this positions GrafTech to deliver stronger financial performance as industry conditions continue to improve. This morning, I'd like to begin with an update on our strategic priorities, then provide our perspective on the steel market and broader industry environment before discussing safety and turning the call over to Rory for a review of our financial results. When we spoke with you 3 months ago, we introduced a series of strategic initiatives designed to strengthen GrafTech's earnings power while supporting healthier long-term industry fundamentals. Those priorities build on the commercial, operational, and financial improvements we have made over the past several years, and I'm pleased with the progress we are making across each of them. First on the commercial front, we are pleased to have delivered 8% year-over-year sales volume growth this quarter, including a 29% increase in the United States, which remains our strongest commercial region. We continue to implement our previously announced price increases on uncommitted volume, which represents an important first step to restore pricing to the levels that safeguard regional graphite electrode production and the continuity of supply for our customers. As noted in our earnings release, since announcing these pricing actions near the end of the first quarter, we have secured customer commitments at prices that are on average more than 15% above those achieved prior to the announcement. With more than 90% of our anticipated volume already committed in our order book, mostly at price points that reflect market pricing at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. This will not translate immediately into higher realized pricing as we've previously discussed. However, these higher price commitments will be reflected in our financial results over time as those shipments occur. Ultimately, the acceptance of higher prices is a strong indicator that our customers recognize the importance of securing a reliable supply of high-quality graphite electrodes backed by world-class technical support. Second, with respect to trade policy, we continue to advocate for fair trade and more balanced competitive conditions across the industry, as evidenced by our support of graphite electrode trade cases in key commercial jurisdictions. This includes the trade case filed earlier this year in the United States related to imports of large diameter graphite electrodes at unfair prices. We remain confident that the Department of Commerce and International Trade Commission will complete a thorough investigation and take meaningful and necessary actions to address these unfair trade practices. This will further support long-term market stability. As a reminder, in April, the ITC announced its preliminary determination that the domestic industry is being materially injured by imports from China and India. And that case is now with Commerce for its investigation. Commerce is expected to announce its preliminary countervailing duty determination early next week, with any such duties becoming effective on a provisional basis shortly thereafter. More importantly, we expect Commerce will announce its preliminary determination on anti-dumping duties by the end of September. As we previously noted, the trade petition filed earlier this year estimated dumping margins for Chinese and Indian electrode imports of 147% and 74% respectively. Third, with respect to our operations, over the past several years, we've significantly improved the efficiency and competitiveness of our manufacturing network through higher productivity, improved operating discipline, and ongoing cost improvement initiatives. That progress continued during the second quarter as we increased production, achieved our highest quarterly capacity utilization level since 2022, and further improved our manufacturing cost structure. For the full year, despite cost headwinds driven by ongoing geopolitical conflicts, we are reconfirming our guidance of a modest year-over-year reduction in our cash COGS. These improvements strengthen our competitiveness in today's market while positioning GrafTech to generate greater earnings and cash flow as industry conditions continue to improve. Ultimately, as we assess the progress of our strategic initiatives and the broader market environment, we continue to evaluate both the production capacity we maintain and the volume we deliver to the market. As an industry leader, we are prepared to take actions to align supply with sustainable industry economics and support the long-term viability of our business. Finally, with respect to emerging opportunities, we're positioning GrafTech to capitalize on what we believe is an important inflection point across the graphite electrode and petroleum needle coke industries. Recognition of the strategic importance of synthetic graphite for both economic and national security purposes continues to grow. And that's being driven by 2 major trends. First, graphite electrodes are indispensable to electric arc furnace steelmaking, which continues to gain share globally. Second, the growth in demand for synthetic graphite for use in defense applications, as well as for anode materials that are central to the development of Western supply chains for batteries used in electric vehicles and energy storage applications. Together, these trends are expected to support long-term demand, not only for synthetic graphite, but also for high-quality petroleum needle coke required to produce it. At the same time, higher decant oil costs and the recent supply disruptions in the Middle East are highlighting the limited availability and increasing strategic value of high-quality petroleum needle coke. We believe these dynamics reinforce the value of GrafTech's vertical integration, which enhances supply reliability for our graphite electrode customers and positions us to benefit from improving needle coke market fundamentals. The reality is that economic and national security risks associated with dependence on concentrated and non-market-based supply chains are becoming increasingly clear. Against this backdrop, we welcome the efforts of policymakers in the U.S. and the EU as they develop a joint critical mineral action plan. This action plan establishes a framework for the 2 trading partners to coordinate policies that support resilient supply chains for critical materials, such as synthetic graphite, while exploring potential trade mechanisms, including border-adjusted price floors. Evidence in trade cases demonstrates that appropriate pricing support is essential, both to establish critical supply chains that do not yet exist outside of China, and to preserve strategic industries that already operate in the West. With that, GrafTech is taking proactive measures to capitalize on these emerging opportunities. These include ongoing engagement with the U.S. administration at various levels to help inform and shape critical mineral policies as they relate to graphite electrodes and battery materials. And specifically as it relates to GrafTech, actively exploring the opportunity to leverage existing industrial assets and available graphitization capacity, we'll demonstrate our leadership in carbon and graphite technology and stressing the importance of preserving this know-how. Within the EU, this includes supporting the ongoing efforts of the European Carbon and Graphite Association as they advocate for a stronger European steel and graphite electrode industry. And more broadly, continuing to demonstrate our technical capabilities through ongoing engagement with research institutions and commercial partnerships, which include collaboration with those in the energy storage industry to utilize our expertise and capacity to further their strategic objectives and evolving business models. Turning to slide 5, let me spend a few minutes discussing the broader steel market because the health of the steel industry remains the primary driver of long-term graphite electrode demand. Although conditions vary by region, the overall direction remains encouraging. Global steel production, excluding China, increased approximately 2% compared to the second quarter of last year. In the United States, steel production is up 6% year-to-date, supported by favorable trade policy and resilient domestic demand. Reflecting these dynamics, quarterly steel capacity utilization in the U.S. reached 80% for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. Conditions in Europe remain more challenging, although we continue to see signs of recovery, as I'll discuss further in a moment. Overall, the data we're seeing today is increasingly consistent with the view we've shared over the past couple of quarters, that steel fundamentals outside of China are steadily improving. Looking beyond today's market conditions, we continue to believe the medium and long-term outlook for the steel industry remains constructive. As shown on this slide, a number of factors have the potential to support stronger steel demand over the coming years. These include continued infrastructure investment, increasing defense spending, the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in Europe, easing monetary policy, improving macroeconomic conditions, and additional trade protections in several key regions. No single catalyst will determine the pace of recovery. Rather, it's the combination of these factors that gives us confidence in the industry's longer-term trajectory. That perspective is also reflected in the World Steel Association's most recent steel demand outlook, which calls for modest growth in 2026, followed by a more meaningful acceleration in 2027 for steel demand outside of China. Let me expand briefly on the EU. Europe represents one of our most important commercial regions, and several recent policy initiatives have the potential to materially strengthen steel production over time. Specifically, provisions in the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM, implemented in early 2026 will make certain steel imports into the EU less competitive. Further, measures adopted by the EU to significantly increase trade protections on steel became effective at the beginning of July. These measures significantly reduce tariff-free import quotas, increase above-quota duties to 50%, and strengthen enforcement through melt and pour disclosure requirements. Together, these measures are expected to boost domestic steel production, with some analysts projecting capacity utilization rates in the EU could increase from current levels of just over 60% to potentially 75% or higher over time. We believe these protections and a more predictable steel production outlook will give EU steelmakers greater confidence to plan beyond the near term and rebuild graphite electrode inventories to more normalized levels. Ultimately, the timing of a broader market recovery is beyond our control. What is within our control is how we position GrafTech to benefit as that recovery gains momentum. That is why we remain focused on executing the priorities we discussed this morning, strengthening our commercial performance, improving our manufacturing efficiency, maintaining financial flexibility, and positioning GrafTech to capitalize on a stronger market environment. Before turning the call over to Rory, I'd like to briefly discuss an area that will always remain our highest priority, which is safety. I've always believed that no business objective is ever more important than ensuring our people return home safely at the end of every shift. And I'm proud of the continued focus our employees have demonstrated across our global operations. Year-to-date, our total recordable incident rate has improved to 0.35, continuing the significant progress that we've made over the past several years. That improvement reflects a culture in which safety is embedded in every aspect of how we operate and not simply a metric we report each quarter. On behalf of our leadership team, I'd like to thank all of our employees for their dedication to operating safely while delivering for our customers every day. Their commitment is the foundation of everything we accomplish as a company. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rory to review our second quarter results and our outlook in greater detail.

Thank you, Tim, and good morning everyone. I'll begin with our second quarter financial performance before discussing liquidity and our financial outlook. Our second quarter results reflected continued progress in several important areas of the business, including higher sales volume, improved manufacturing performance, and lower cash costs per metric ton. Starting with our operations, our production volume exceeded 33,000 metric tons during the quarter, resulting in capacity utilization of 74%, the highest quarterly level we have achieved since 2022. Year-to-date, our production volume has exceeded sales volume by approximately 4,000 metric tons. This was planned as we build inventories in advance of our summer maintenance activities at our European operations. Our expectation remains to balance production and sales volume levels on a full year basis. However, we are encouraged by the strength of our order book and the commercial momentum that Tim discussed earlier. Expanding on this point, sales volume increased to approximately 31,000 metric tons, representing growth of 8% compared to the prior year quarter and 10% sequentially. Importantly, our second quarter and year-to-date performance is consistent with our expectation for full year sales volume growth of between 5% and 10%. In the United States, we delivered 29% year-over-year sales volume growth for the second quarter. This reflects our ongoing focus on value over volume, as we continue to prioritize business that meets our margin expectations while expanding our presence in higher value regions. Net sales for the quarter were $127 million, down 3% compared to the second quarter of last year. The benefits of higher sales volume were offset by lower weighted average realized pricing, reflecting the continued pricing pressure across much of the graphite electrode industry. During the second quarter, our weighted average realized pricing was approximately $3,900 per metric ton, which, as expected, was flat sequentially and down approximately 7% compared to the second quarter of last year. With more than 80% of our anticipated 2026 volume already committed at the time we announced our pricing action in late March, current realized pricing continues to reflect commitments secured prior to the announced price increase. However, we are encouraged by the higher pricing on new orders, as Tim discussed earlier. As we have previously indicated, while the impact on 2026 reported pricing will be modest, as those newer commitments convert into shipments over future quarters, they will begin contributing to higher realized pricing. Most importantly, the acceptance of these higher prices in recent tenders provides a stronger starting point for our 2027 contract discussions than we would have had just a few months ago. To put the opportunity into perspective, based on current utilization rates, each $100 improvement in our average selling price would equate to approximately $12 million of incremental annual cash flow, thereby further supporting our liquidity position. Combined with the other strategic initiatives Tim discussed earlier, improved pricing has the potential to contribute meaningfully to our financial performance beginning in 2027. Turning to slide 9, cash costs of goods sold per metric ton declined approximately 9% sequentially and 6% compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting improved production efficiency, higher utilization, and continued cost improvement initiatives across our manufacturing network. As we have noted in prior calls, we will have periodic quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in our cash cost recognition as a result of timing impacts. However, our underlying cost structure is materially lower than it was just a few years ago. While inflationary pressures remain on certain raw materials, energy, and logistics costs as a result of geopolitical disruptions, our operations teams continue identifying opportunities to improve productivity and offset these external pressures wherever possible. Importantly, we continue to achieve this while maintaining our dedication to product quality and reliability, as well as upholding our commitments to environmental responsibility and safety. In addition, as production volumes continue to recover, we expect these structural cost improvements to provide increasing operating leverage. Overall, these improvements reinforce our expectation for a low single-digit percentage reduction in cash costs of goods sold on a per-metric ton basis for the full year. As we move ahead, while our teams remain focused on cost control, sustained increases in key input costs will need to be reflected in graphite electrode pricing, beyond the pricing actions we have already announced. Turning from our internal cost performance to the broader industry cost environment, reflecting the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, higher oil-related feedstock costs and potential disruptions in decant oil availability for certain needle coke producers are beginning to place upward pressure on petroleum needle coke pricing following several years of relatively stable market conditions. Needle coke and graphite electrode pricing have historically been closely correlated, and we believe improving needle coke fundamentals could provide an additional catalyst for higher electrode pricing. Importantly, our substantial vertical integration positions GrafTech to benefit both directly through our needle coke operations and indirectly as higher needle coke pricing supports higher graphite electrode pricing. Turning to the next slide, our second quarter financial results remain consistent with our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $2 million during the quarter compared to $3 million in the prior year period. While pricing continued to pressure earnings, improved operating performance and cost management partially offset that impact. Net cash used in operating activities during the second quarter was $69 million, while adjusted free cash flow was negative $75 million compared to negative $53 million in the prior year quarter. As a reminder, we make semiannual interest payments of approximately $34 million on our second lien notes in the second and fourth quarter of each year. The year-over-year increase in cash usage primarily reflected timing changes in working capital, including the planned inventory build that we have discussed. Importantly, we expect the second quarter to represent our highest level of cash usage during 2026. Consistent with the seasonal nature of our working capital requirements, we expect operating cash flow to improve during the second half of the year as inventory levels normalize and working capital investments moderate. On a full year basis, we continue to expect a modest increase in working capital to support higher sales volume. We also continue to expect approximately $35 million of capital expenditures during the year, consistent with maintaining our assets at current operating levels and supporting targeted investments in plant capabilities and productivity improvements. Turning to the next slide to discuss liquidity. As planned, during June, we drew the remaining $100 million available under our delayed draw first lien term loan prior to the expiration of that commitment. We ended the quarter with approximately $253 million of total liquidity consisting of $145 million of cash and approximately $108 million of available borrowing capacity under our revolving credit facility. Importantly, we have substantially no debt maturities until December of 2029. Taken together, this provides the financial flexibility to continue executing our strategy while navigating the current industry environment. Lastly, during the second quarter, we filed a shelf registration to expand the financing tools available to us as we evaluate opportunities to strengthen our balance sheet and support long-term shareholder value. Subsequently, we established an at-the-market equity program. While usage has been modest to date, the ATM provides additional optionality to access capital in a measured and disciplined manner when we believe market conditions are appropriate. In closing my remarks, I would like to thank our team members around the world for their outstanding commitment and hard work. Their efforts have enabled the commercial, operational, and financial progress we have discussed today. With that, I'll turn the call back to Tim for closing remarks.

Before we open the call for questions, let me leave you with 3 observations. First, GrafTech is executing well. We continue to grow volume, optimize our commercial mix towards higher value regions, lower manufacturing costs, improve utilization, and maintain financial discipline. Second, the strength we have been seeing in the steel industry fundamentals in the U.S. is becoming more evident across other regions. Steel production outside of China continues to strengthen, trade protections are increasing across multiple regions, and our own pricing actions are gaining traction in the marketplace. And finally, while the timing of broader pricing recovery remains uncertain, we are not waiting for it. Every decision we're making today is intended to ensure GrafTech emerges from this cycle as a stronger, more competitive company. That conviction is grounded in the advantages that differentiate GrafTech, including our vertical integration, global manufacturing footprint, technical expertise, and longstanding customer relationships. Together, these strengths position us to benefit meaningfully as market conditions normalize. We're confident in our strategy. We're confident in the long-term fundamentals of our industry. And most importantly, we're confident that the actions we're taking today will create meaningful long-term value for our shareholders. With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

Shipments came in a bit better than expected. I know you referenced the U.S. share growing 29% year-over-year, but could you unpack this a bit? Was this primarily U.S. customers pulling forward slightly? And if so, is this a trend you expect to maybe persist through the balance of the year, just given the tightness in the U.S. steel market?

Yes, thanks, Ben. So the U.S. market obviously continues to run very well. Utilization rates, again, are over 80%. So all of our customers are operating well. As we alluded to in the first quarter call, we are seeing some pull into the second quarter for volumes in the U.S., which to us is a sign of a strengthening demand, but we're also seeing new orders come in for additional volumes needed in the third and fourth quarter. So it's -- we expect kind of the back half of the year to continue with strength in the U.S. as we look forward.

You know, reference costs rising 10% to 15% and needle coke anywhere up from $200 to $300 a ton. So just wondering if you're seeing a similar magnitude of change on needle coke and if you could kind of just update on broader inflationary pressures, maybe to what extent decant oil has moved higher as well?

Ben, can you repeat your question? I think you may have cut out for just a second at the beginning. I want to make sure we get the full context of your question.

Yes, sure. Can you hear me all right?

Yes.

Okay. So I was just referencing comments from one of your peers yesterday that pointed to cost inflation of around 10% to 15%, and they also mentioned needle coke up anywhere from $200 to $300 a ton. So wondering if you're seeing a similar magnitude of change on needle coke, and then if you could kind of update us to what extent decant oil has also been moving higher since re-escalation in the Middle East?

Ben, this is Rory. Good morning. So the peer you're referencing, I think we're seeing similar market intelligence just for the broader group. We're happy to have our captive supply of needle coke down in Port Lavaca, Texas. So we're not really subject to some of the needle coke pricing pressures that others may be experiencing, but yes, $200 to $300 price increases on shipments to date, into the middle of the year and into the third quarter is what we're seeing. We expect something of similar magnitude going forward. As you know, we're 1 of 4 ex-Chinese needle coke producers, and we know that a lot of the Asia Pacific producers rely heavily on the Middle East oil feedstock for their petroleum needle coke production. That tightening supply, delays and logistics, and all those matters related to the Middle East conflict are certainly causing tightness in supply. So we're happy to have our availability. I will tell you that from an availability standpoint, there has been some inbounds received to determine whether or not there's availability of our supply in Texas to provide to the market. So there's a lot of signs pointing towards availability tightening, and we expect that to support higher prices going into the back half of the year from those that have already been realized. More broadly, I just want to say that, as I said in my prepared remarks, we're holding our cost per ton guidance for the full year. That contemplates our current views on cost inflation, raw material inflation, including decant oil for the remainder of the year. The team has been doing a great job offsetting the impacts with not just innovation but strong procurement strategies. As we've said in the past, we've been able to diversify our supplier base as far as feedstock for decant oil over the past couple of years. We're happy to have all of our sourcing vis-a-vis American refineries. So not really getting as impacted by our procurement of decant oil as some others may be. So all good signs, and we're hopeful that the strategic advantage of our vertical integration is starting to emerge back to as normal conditions kind of emerge.

I guess my question is, maybe I'll start with the utilization rates. I think you referenced maybe a mid-70s utilization rate for your own system and yet about an 80% rate for U.S. steel utilization, do you see those kind of converging, namely? And maybe you can comment on the global side as well. And I guess I'm just curious if there's any actions you can take to bring industry utilization rates in electrodes closer to, you know, maybe a tight or balanced market. You know, do you think the industry needs some rationalization of capacity? And could you potentially be in a position to do that?

Yes, thanks, Arun. I appreciate the question. So I think if you think about our utilization rate, first and foremost, and the fact that we are at 74% for the quarter, is reflecting of the planned inventory build that Rory alluded to that led to a little bit of a working capital use in the quarter, and that's really preparing for not only the European shutdowns that happen seasonally at the end of July and into August, but also what we anticipate is continued improving conditions going forward. So it gives us a little bit more flexibility as we go into the back half of the year. Thinking about it relative to U.S. steel production, right? I don't know if you can necessarily measure those 2 off of one another, just given that U.S. steel production is just one piece of kind of a global market. But I think if you talk broadly about overall supply in the electrode space, yes, it's still a market that is oversupplied, and I think we have a lot of conviction around the steps that we've taken from our actions, both restricting supply back in 2024, improving our cost structure, bringing down our SG&A by $20 million over the last few years, all of those actions and the shift in our mix on the commercial side really are what's driving what we think will lead to improved financial performance. But certainly -- stand by the comments we made in our prepared remarks and we've commented on the last couple of calls. If the market dictates that supply needs to come out of the market, we'll continue to execute and behave like an industry leader and we'll adjust our production accordingly. And do that when the time's appropriate.

Okay. So it sounds like there could be some opportunities for temporary idling and cutback of production, if I heard you correctly. And then I guess just on pricing. So it sounds like you guys are being disciplined and are very much committed to bringing up your returns and enacting the price increases. So maybe you can just give us your perspective on where you are in that process. What's kind of the outlook for success on future price increases, especially just given that oversupply situation? I guess, is it going to depend on just kind of macro improvement, or is there anything else that you guys can take action on to, again, improve the pricing outlook?

Yes, I mean, you know, so I think the pricing story is one that we've been consistently stating that we don't think we're getting paid for the value that we deliver to our customers, and the level of pricing doesn't support the investment needed for new products coming to the market to support more demanding applications and newer technologies. So what we did in the first quarter really was the first step of what we think is a number of steps going forward to get pricing back to a level that is reflective of that and gets where we think the earnings potential of this company should be. So more to come as we get into the negotiations, but I think we've seen definitely a shift in momentum for the first time in a while in the electrode space, right? We saw falling prices over the last few years and into Q1 and with the announced price increase and the stickiness of it that we've seen thus far, we have some momentum going into negotiations in the fourth quarter and we'll continue to do that. On a broader scale with respect to the oversupply, again, I think there's still opportunity for some consolidation or supply rationalization from the market as a whole. I think we've seen a decline of about 10% in Chinese exports and certainly that helps. But I think more broadly too, you have to think about trade policy as well and creating a little bit of buffered regions, if you will. Think about the broader steel market as being oversupplied, but yet U.S. steel prices are up 50% since February of 2025. Europe's about 25% higher since that same timeframe. And that's really the result of effective trade policy and tariff actions and preventing product from being dumped into those markets. So the combination of disciplined execution, both operationally, but more importantly, commercially, as well as trade policy, as well as a little bit of supply reduction and export reductions out of China. All of those things I think lead to a more constructive pricing environment. And then as Rory alluded to previously as well, we're seeing higher needle coke prices in the marketplace, both in the third quarter, and I think we'll continue to see upward pressure on those into the fourth quarter. And as you know, there's been a typical historical spread between needle coke pricing and electrode pricing. So, again, I think that supports higher pricing going forward, even absent the supply issues.

I know you're holding your cost per ton guidance for this year flat, but I'm curious -- I know costs are -- at least some of your costs are headed higher, particularly electricity. And I'm wondering if you could maybe elaborate on the timing of those contracts, the lag effect, and maybe most importantly how much would realized price per ton have to go up to offset where prices -- where your costs are today?

Thanks, Kirk. So yes, certainly, there are some headwinds developing. I think if you anchor yourself in our long-term view of our cash costs per ton, we're still sticking with $3,600 to $3,700 a ton. You saw a better result, of course, during the second quarter just based on our heavy production. So some of our fixed costs got pinned down. We have some fixed cost leverage there to get us down to $3,500. The quarters will be lumpy, but you continue to anchor yourself in that $3,600 to $3,700. When you think about the lag effect of some of the inflation that we're experiencing in the second quarter and potentially in the second half, we expect that to slowly manifest itself in our earnings, but a lot of the back half inflation, if it comes in, will most likely be a key focus point of our 2027 price negotiations. So we will be expecting to recover beyond what the price is that we've announced so far -- the price increased announced so far. I would say that to build yourself -- your question on how far do prices need to go up to cover that inflation? I say that's to be determined. If you think about our cost stack, the energy, commodities type inputs to our process, I would say is about half of the cost. So there could be -- you can do the math and figure out how much we'd need to increase our price to cover some of that, putting in some assumptions. As far as electricity, energy, power, gas, I want to remind you that in the EU, we actually have some fixed price contracts to cover almost 70% of our requirements for the back half of the year between our 2 plants in Spain and France. So some of that volatility in the European markets, where we have a little bit of a cushion against, pretty large cushion against. So all in holding that cash guidance is a result of our effective procurement, our timely procurement of our oils and our other petroleum based raw materials, but also certainly, we've locked in with some of the fixed price contracts on power and gas in Europe.

Yes, Kirk, I'd just add to that. The teams have done a really good job over the last 3 years of not only reducing our costs, but really offsetting inflationary headwinds that have persisted in the market for the last few years and fully expect that we'll continue to do that. And then to add to Rory's point, there should be no expectation in the market that we're going to bear that inflationary impact of the input costs or energy costs. Those will be passed through to customers through pricing going forward.

That's helpful. How much below market do you think you -- for instance, your electricity costs are currently?

Depending on the region, and the input, I would say probably 10% to 25%, perhaps percentage-wise, on the base price for gas and electricity. It's a little hard to gauge that just given the volatility of natural gas prices here. You know, they've spiked, dropped down significantly and spiked again. So I think that's a fair average around the second quarter price -- into the end of the second quarter price, not today.

Got it. I appreciate it. And I guess your other point was you're -- everyone's experiencing the same. Do you feel like you're similarly situated vis-a-vis your competitors? Like everyone's contracts are about the same and they all roll off at about the same times?

I don't think I can -- yes, I'm not sure we can comment on how they're procuring energy and raw materials and such, other than, you know, again, the biggest differentiator we have is vertical integration with needle coke, which is again, 40% of our costs.

Yes. And with the Resonac and Tokai, the lack of visibility into their electrode business, I would say that you're left with the Indian producers, which do have kind of a national cost advantage to some of us -- or to us and others based on just their national energy programs.

Got it. I appreciate it. And then maybe just one last one. What percentage of the U.S. market do you think will be impacted by these new duties in the U.S. -- antidumping duties?

Yes, so we would typically say that 15% to 20% of the volume sold in the U.S. is coming from imports. So I think this presents the -- the trade actions present not only a volume opportunity because of the desire to import and pay those tariffs, the juice may not be worth the squeeze, so to speak. Conversely, it does help establish better pricing support or a price floor at a minimum that we'll operate from going forward.

I just wanted to piggyback real quick on the energy discussion. I know, Rory, you just outlined 70% fixed in the EU through the back half, but how should we think about your hedging program or strategy next year? Have you started to lock in any of those prices? Any color you could give on that front.

We have, we started negotiations on that recently. I would rather not give you figures since we're still involved in it, but I would say that we're aiming for similar protections against market volatility, as well as volume coverage. So, I mean, I guess I should leave it at that until we finalize our discussions, but we're working in the same manner with the same objectives as we were when we locked in the prices for '26.

Is it fair to assume these are at directionally higher levels versus what you locked in this year?

Yes, it's fair to assume that directionally.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Tim Flanagan, CEO and President, for closing remarks. Please go ahead, Tim.

Thank you, Lucas. I'd like to thank everyone on this call for your interest in GrafTech. Look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Have a great day.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.