Massimo Mondazzi
Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead
Good afternoon and welcome to ENI's first quarter 2019 presentation. In the first quarter, upstream and gas and power sectors delivered positive results while downstream confirmed its resilience in a tough scenario. In upstream, EBIT performance was robust at €2.3 billion plus 25% year on year net on Norway impact thanks to the higher value on new production. Production was 1,832,000 barrel per day, 1.3% lower than last year when Intisar production in Libya was still on stream. In exploration, we confirmed our positive track record with 174 million of BOE on new discoveries, mainly related to the Agogo oil field in block 15/16 Angola, Merakes East in Indonesia and Nour in Egypt. In addition, we are continuing to reload our exploration opportunities with more than 23,000 kilometer of net acreage added in the quarter. In mid downstream, we recorded around €320 million of EBIT, thanks to a strong performance in gas and power with EBIT of more than €370 million due to the performance improvement in both midstream and retail. Refining and marketing results were close to breakeven as marketing subsidized the refining segment which was affected by tight differential between AV type crudes that made it convenient for us to concentrate maintenance in our plants this quarter. Chemicals recorded negative EBIT due to the Priolo offset that outed the plan for most of the quarter. Cash flow before working capital applying the new IFRS 16 was €3.4 billion or excluding IFRS 16, €3.2 billion at the same level of last year covering one point seven times the €1.9 billion CapEx. CapEx guidance is confirmed at €8 billion this year. Leverage was around 16% before applying IFRS 16, the same level of the end of last year. And now a closer look to upstream. On production, we reported a lower volume versus last year. The production was affected by the termination of Intisar contract in Libya at the end of the second quarter 2018. Excluding that event, production performance was robust delivering 200,000 barrels per day [indiscernible] which counterbalanced almost completely Intisar and the nature of depletion. In terms of result, upstream EBIT, excluding Vår Energi contribution, now equity accounted, was €2.3 billion a 25% increase on a like for like basis versus last year, boost by the increasing quality of our production mix for around 220 million, lower cost, and exploration activity for 150 and the marginal impact from IFRS 16 principal of around 50 million. Talking about our production mix, a few words on the gas component. Notwithstanding the lower prices in European and Asian ops, we have been able to increase our realization price by 25% from $4.50 to $5.60 per million of BTU, a level that we are expecting to maintain also in the coming quarters. And now let's go deeper into the progress of 2019 production. The next quarter production will be around 1% lower than the first quarter, mainly due to the planned maintenance activity in Kazakhstan, Norway and U.K., while, in the second half, we anticipate a strong production growth as a result of the following additional contributions: more than 40,000 boe per day from the start-ups of Berkin in Algeria, Area 1 in Mexico, Baltim Southwest in Egypt and Trestakk in Norway; and around 80,000 boe per day, mainly related to ramp up around the 45 and higher contribution from Kazakhstan, Norway, Iraq, Nigeria and U.S. Our yearly guidance of around 1.88 million barrels is confirmed. To conclude the upstream section, let me update you on the discounted net cash flow of proved reserves, a metric that confirms the quality of our upstream portfolio. In unit returns, with $9.2 per barrel of discounted net cash flow, we confirm our top ranking. This is due to the low level of unitary production and development cost, top of the rank at $17.6 per boe, thanks to the quality of our conventional asset mainly inherited from exploration successes. And to the outstanding unit selling price of $44.9 per barrel at the top end of the range, notwithstanding one of the highest exposure to gas in terms of P1 reserves with around 70% of our gas sold to domestic markets. And now let's move to mid downstream. Gas & Power EBIT was strong in excess of 370 million. This result was driven by gas and LNG marketing in Power business with 226 million of contribution, thanks to the improved result both in trading activity but mainly in the gas business, where we have been able to extract value from the flexibility of our portfolio of gas contracts in a scenario of positive spreads between European ops. These positive performances more than offset the lower contribution of the power business and the LNG, which result was extraordinary in the first quarter of 2018. Gas & Power retail delivered a result of €146 million, a 3.5% increase versus last year or 10% excluding the effect of mild weather of this quarter. This quarter result, typically the highest quarter of the year, strengthened our full year Gas & Power guidance of around €500 million. Refining & Marketing was at breakeven. Due to the recent appreciation in EVI and high-sulfur crudes. Driven by geopolitical issues and OPEC cuts, we decided to concentrate maintenance of Sannazzaro and Livorno refineries this quarter. Consequently, refining results were negatively affected by a lower utilization rate, minus 11 percentage points year-on-year. The restart of the S plant and the completion of the maintenance activity will now allow us to capture the full benefit of the IMO expected in the second part of this year. The startup of Gela bio plant in the coming months will farther announce the result of our refining activities. The robust performance in marketing almost compensated the refining temporary weakness. Finally, Versalis was impacted by the fire in Priolo plant that halted production for more than 2 months and is now restarted. This had an EBIT impact of around €70 million in the quarter. CapEx are in line with the guidance. In the first quarter, we spent €1.9 billion, which 85% devoted to the upstream, mainly for the development of our projects by plant that are on track and within budget to deliver the planned production growth. R&M and Versalis spent 11%, mostly for the completion of the green refinery in Gela and the restart of S plant in Sannazzaro. As in the past, we remain fully committed to maintain our disciplined approach to investment. Cash flow from operations before working capital and before the implementation of IFRS 16 was €3.2 billion, in line with the last year results. The working capital cash absorption of €1.3 billion or €1 billion net of the settlement of a U.S. arbitration is mainly due to seasonal draw from Gas & Power and is expected to be largely reabsorbed by the end of this year. During the quarter, we generated a free cash flow before working capital changes of €1.3 billion, well in excess of the pro rata quarterly need of our dividend. Cash flow from operations and free cash flow are in line with our yearly expectations. EBIT adjusted at €2.4 billion confirmed the same performances of last year, notwithstanding the deconsolidation of Norway and the net negative impact of around €190 million of unrealized profit in stock, mainly related to oil not yet sold to the final market at the end of this quarter, partially offset by the benefit of the IFRS 16. Net of this impact, we recorded a growth of EBIT by 17%. The net income of around €1 billion was marginally impacted by the IFRS 16 application, more or less EUR 30 million. Leverage ante IFRS was 16%. Thank you very much. And now together with my colleagues, I'm ready to answer any question you may have.