Kent J. Thiry
Analyst · Matt Weight
Okay. Thank you, Jim, and thanks to all of you out there for your interest in DaVita HealthCare Partners. Fourth quarter was a momentous one in one important respect, in that we completed the acquisition of HealthCare Partners to become our new company. That's transformational for us and hopefully, over time, transformational for many markets in American health care. I'll talk about kidney care a bit, then I'll make a couple of quick comments on HealthCare Partners and then talk about our near-term outlook, followed by a summary of things to feel good about, things to worry about. So kidney care first. It was another solid quarter. We performed well both clinically and operationally. Let me elaborate on the clinical side. We will present these outcomes first because that is what comes first. We are first and foremost a caregiving company which, on the kidney care side alone, serves approximately 153,000 dialysis patients in the United States. With respect to adequacy, which is essentially how well we're doing in removing toxins from our patients' blood, once again, we hit the 98% level in terms of a Kt/V greater than 1.2. With respect to vascular access, we set yet another personal best, with 71% of our patients having fistulas, which is the preferred form of access, not only better clinically but saving taxpayers' money. Third, vaccinations, this year, over 91% of our patients were vaccinated for influenza and pneumonia, once again improving health care and reducing taxpayer cost. And number four is just a moment's reflection. Since 2009, we have reduced the use of catheters by 43% among our substantial population, 1/3 out of all the dialysis patients in America. Once again, that constitutes wonderful clinical improvement, wonderful taxpayer savings. For these and virtually all other clinical measures, our patient outcomes compare very favorably to national averages, and this quality not only results in healthier patients but drives reductions in hospitalizations, surgical procedures and costs. So good news on the clinical front. We think that's not only good news for our patients and the taxpayers, but it's good news for you. On to public policy on the kidney care side. As part of the fiscal cliff negotiations, as most of you know, Congress mandated a rebasement of part of the bundle for 2014. It's sort of a bogus way to do it, but that is what they did. This could create a headwind for providers in 2014. So let's just revisit the core facts surrounding this issue: number one, we and the rest of the community still lose money on Medicare; number two, many of the dialysis centers in America are in a fragile financial states already, including a bunch of ours; number three, the legislation did not mandate a savings level, therefore, a, while CMS is directed to rebase a portion of the bundle, they have both the authority and the obligation to ensure overall payments are adequate to take care of these human beings, and so we'll have to wait and see what they do. But in order for you to think about some of the facts that they will be thinking about, while it is true that pharma utilization, particularly ESAs, has gone down over the past 2 years, it's good to remember the following. We took a 2% cut going into the bundle because of the changing clinical science and physicians' points of view on ESAs. We took a 2% cut going in because people knew physicians were going to start prescribing fewer of them, and since pharma was about 25% of our costs, that meant you would need an 8% cost reduction in pharma to offset that 2% cut on the overall bundle. Fact number two, industry pricing for EPO is up about 15% since the bundle went into effect. So if you put those 2 things together, 15% higher pricing, more or less, on average and the 2% cut on the total bundle going into it, you need pharma utilization reductions of around 23%, which is right about what has happened. So there has been no tick-up on an aggregate basis in the industry. These are facts that CMS must take into account. In addition, there were other unexpected cuts, at least by us, included in the bundle because of what happened with the case-mix adjusters, outlier payments, et cetera, and so the net economics were actually worse than what I just summarized. And of course, on top of this is any additional sequestration that will further strain a lot of the centers across the country. And if they get it wrong, the centers will close, patient access will be hurt. So we'll have to wait and see what happens. Second significant bit of policy news on the kidney care side is that we were excited that CMMI released an RFA for a renal-specific integrated care program. We have waited for years for the opportunity to give the gift of integrated care to every kidney care patient in America. Unfortunately, based on our current understanding of the terms, we would not participate in this program. The proposal is incomplete, first of all. But second, some of the stuff that is there and is definitive is sufficiently negative to make the program unattractive, and we'll have to hope that there are some changes. We are, as I said, absolutely eager to take our proven capability -- we have proven that we can reduce total cost while simultaneously improving quality in an incredibly transparent fashion. It is and will be so frustrating if we're not allowed to bring the gift of integrated care to our patients and to our taxpayers on a broader basis, and we've done so much and proven so much for so many years in so many ways in so many places, so we remain hopeful. And it will be stunningly frustrating if we're prevented from spreading that good work. A couple of comments on HealthCare Partners. I think the short summary is that the performance, economically and clinically, continues to be solid in their core markets, in line with our and presumably your expectations. On the growth front, our pipeline continues to be robust, and we closed some tuck-in acquisitions in existing markets in the fourth quarter. Now on to our near-term outlook. We are going to maintain our 2013 OI guidance of $1.75 billion to $1.9 billion, and this includes, on the kidney care side, $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion; and on the HealthCare Partners side, $400 million to $450 million. This guidance captures the majority of probabilistic outcomes, taking into account all swing factors. But as we all know, these are very dynamic times on multiple dimensions, and we all must acknowledge the risk that we could fall outside that range. I'd also like to take a minute now and wrap up by just stepping back and staring at what one should be worried about in investing in our shares and what one should feel good about. The most abbreviated summary would just say we think there is big upside, and we know there are serious risks. Things to worry about on the kidney care side. Of course, the longstanding concern of our reliance on commercial rate and mix; and second, the often-discussed government investigations and private lawsuit risks, which are substantial. And then to those 2, we need to add government reimbursement risk being incrementally higher these days because of everything going on. And then on top of that the uncertainty of exchanges. So these are serious things to be concerned about on the kidney care side. Things to feel good about on the kidney care side. First and foremost, excellent quality, a transparent attitude about it and quality that reduces cost. But beyond that, stable demand growth. We are well positioned with scale that matters when you're talking about managing a large patient population, transparent economics with significant share of government accountability because most of our centers do only one thing. So these are really good things to feel good about. On the HealthCare Partners side, what should you worry about? Well, you should worry about how quickly we can develop a stronger new market capability that, by strategic design, was not well developed up to this point. In addition, Medicare Advantage has its own reimbursement pressures, and because it is a hot space, there's a lot of competition, so these are significant things to worry about, as we do. On the other hand, things to feel good about from a HealthCare Partners point of view is that they are very good at what America needs to have happen in a lot more markets in terms of health-oriented population management pragmatically delivered, the physician/caregiver centric model. In addition, as you all know, better than we, the market opportunity is stunning, and that's not even counting potential new markets and things like duals and ACOs. If you look at the combined enterprise, what you can feel good about is, a, it's already been mentioned twice, a high-quality clinical focus and the philosophy of transparency around it; second, a very attractive place to work. Lots of good people, because of the substantial potential and because of the goodness of what we do, are interested in coming to work for our new combined enterprise; and third, our strong and consistent cash flows. Hopefully, you feel good about our historical and critical decision-making with respect to deploying those cash flows. So that's it for me until Q&A. I'll turn it over to Jim Hilger now.