Anastasios Margaronis
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Simeon. And once again, a warm welcome to the participants of this third-quarter conference call on Diana Shipping Inc. Just as a quick reference, I'd like to mention that according to the Clarksons bulker earnings of bulk carriers came at an average of $12,019 a day from January to August this year, which is up 25% year on year. The Baltic Dry Index started the year at 1,230, and today, closed at 1,217. The Baltic Panamax Index stood at 1,340 at the beginning of the year, and today, closed at 1,389. As for the Baltic Cape Index, it was 2,281 on January 2nd, and today, closed at 1,789. So let's turn first to a brief summary of macroeconomic news. According to the IMF, global growth for 2018 to '19 is projected to remain steady at 3.7% as per 2017 level, but its pace has been less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months, and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Advanced economies are expected to grow by 2.4% this year and by 2.1% in 2019. As for developing economies, the IMF expects growth this year to be 4.7%, and the same is expected to be seen in 2019. Eurozone GDP growth is estimated by the IMF to be 2% this year and 1.9% next year. As for the United States, growth for this year is expected to be 2.9% and for next year, slightly lower at 2.5%. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, the country's GDP growth slowed from 6.7% during the second quarter of this year to 6.5% during the third quarter. For the year as a whole, GDP growth is estimated by the IMF to be 6.6%. For 2019, GDP growth is expected to fall to 6.2%. In China again, according to Commodore Research, the Central Bank cut the required reserve ratio for most Chinese banks by 1%, effective on October 15. Overall, cutting the reserve ratio is a common strategy used to stimulate the market, increase liquidity, and boost sentiment. The Chinese government remains committed to further stimulate the Chinese economy, partially in response to the ongoing trade war. This will be through very large domestic infrastructure and railway projects as we have seen in the past. All the above macroeconomic statistics and forecasts indicate that economic growth should, barring unforeseen events, underpin demand for bulk carriers through at least the end of next year. Looking quickly at the supply side statistics now. According to Braemar, after taking into consideration anticipated scrapping and slippage forecast, overall bulk carrier capacity should increase by 2.5% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019 and by 4% in 2020. According to banchero costa, the fleet of Capes and VLOC is expected to grow by 3% the next year and in 2020 while the Panamax and Post Panamax fleet is expected to grow by 3% in 2019 and only 2% in 2020. According to Commodore Research, the Capesize fleet has seen only 34 vessels added so far to the fleet. This, together with strong iron ore exports, should support Capesize vessels rates going forward. Turning to demand now. As banchero costa point out, dry bulk seaborne trade is dominated by the steel industry and the power sector. As such, about two thirds of all cargo volumes are either iron ore or coal. Much of the rest is made up of steel products, scrap, bauxite, grains, soybeans, fertilizers, and other products. According to Clarksons, after expanding by 4.2% in 2017, global seaborne dry bulk trade is currently projected to grow by 2.6% in full-year 2018 and by 3.2% in ton miles. This demand is expected to outstrip the anticipated supply expansion of 2.7% this year. Looking to 2019 now, Clarksons expect fleet growth to remain moderate at around 2.8%. I'd like to point out that Braemar's estimate is 3.3% with demand increasing by 3.1% in terms of ton miles. This leads Clarksons to state that fundamentals in the bulk carrier sector are projected to be broadly balanced next year, a view to which we concur. Scrapping now. According to Clarksons, against the backdrop of slightly firmer shipping market, bulk carrier demolition has been extremely limited during the first nine months of this year with only 44 units with a combined carrying capacity of 3.1 million deadweight reported sold for scrap. According to Braemar, scrapping this year will reach a near 5 million deadweight, which if realized will be the lowest level in absolute terms since 2007. For comparison purposes, a total of 227 bulk carriers were scrapped in 2017 with a total capacity of 7.3 million deadweight. The average age of ships sold for demolition so far this year has gone up to 28.4 years old from 24.6 last year. This is not surprising considering improved vessel earnings. Let's have a look at steel now. According to Howe Robinson, world crude steel production was 1.347 billion tons during the first nine months of 2018, up by 4.7% compared to the same period in 2017. According to Gibson Shipbrokers, World Steel has produced its short-term steel outlook. It pays particular attention to China and identifies a deceleration of steel demand toward the end of this year and into 2019. This identifies the decelerating world economy and the ongoing trade friction with the USA is creating downside risks. World Steel expects global demand growth in 2018 to be 2.1%, and in 2019 to be just 1.4%. Let's look at iron ore now and the effects on that commodity as a result of steel trends. According to banchero costa, China's iron ore imports during the first nine months of 2018 were down 1.7% year on year to 803.5 million tons even as Chinese steel production surged and domestic iron ore output continued to fall. Domestic iron ore output over the same period fell by a drastic 40% year on year as environmental and safety restrictions intensified. The lower levels of iron ore imports could also reflect the combination of less ore required in steelmaking due to the usage of higher-grade ore and some port inventory drawdown, also said to be of the higher-quality ore, mainly bought during periods of price weakness. According to Clarksons, Chinese seaborne iron ore imports are projected to remain steady in full-year 2018, reflecting rising scrap use by steel mills and reduced demand for low-quality ore as mentioned above. Overall, global seaborne iron ore trade is currently projected to grow by 0.9% in full-year 2018 to around 1.5 billion tons, the slowest pace of growth since the early 2000s. This trade is projected to grow by around 1% in 2019 but downside risks remain. According to Commodore Research, the iron ore stock pile at the Chinese ports stood at 145.2 million metric tons at the end of October this year. Coking coal now trade. According to Clarksons, overall, seaborne coking coal trade is projected to grow by a firm 4.5% to reach 268 million tons in 2018 and maybe by a further 3% in 2019. It is worth noting that according to Clarksons, Indian seaborne coking coal imports are projected to grow by 13% in 2018 to reach 59 million tons while shipments to Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, and Taiwan are also expected to reach record levels. As for steam coal, according to Clarksons, China's seaborne steam coal imports are currently projected to grow by around 14% in full-year 2018. Chinese seaborne thermal coal imports are initially projected to remain relatively steady next year, although there are downside risks to this outlook. U.S. seaborne steel coal exports are projected to rise by 29% to reach 47 million tons in 2018 before easing slightly next year. Overall, total global imports are expected to increase 4% this year and reach 981 million tons and by a further 2% next year. Let's look at wheat, coarse grain, and soybean. Chinese soybean imports are expected, according to Clarksons, to drop by 11% this year to 85 million tons with total Chinese seaborne grain imports expected to fall by 9% to 106 million tons in 2018. Overall, global seaborne grain trade is expected to grow by just 1% in the 2018-'19 grain season, following an expansion of 6% the previous season. And total grain trade is expected to increase by 2% in the 2019 to 2020 season. A brief look at newbuilding deliveries. During 2018, newbuilding deliveries could, according to Braemar, reach 27.1 million deadweight. This, if it materializes, would be the lowest volume of deliveries in 10 years and 28% lower than in 2017, a year that was already light on newbuilding deliveries. Let's look at contracting now. According to Clarksons from January to September this year, a total of 58 Capes with a combined 12.4 billion deadweight were ordered, down 22% year on year on an annualized basis in terms of deadweight. Contracting in the Panamax sector through the end of September this year came in at 64 vessels of a combined 5.2 million deadweight, down 40% year on year in deadweight terms. On order books now. According to Clarksons, at the end of September, the bulk carrier order book of 82.6 million deadweight was the equivalent of 10% of the existing fleet. From this total, about 10.2 million deadweight are expected to be delivered from the end of September to the end of this year, 35 million deadweight during 2019 and the remaining 37.4 million deadweight from 2020 onwards. For reasons explained in this report, this is additional capacity that can easily be absorbed by the market if demand projections materialize. As you go to Capes, the order book of 47.1 million deadweight represents 14% of the existing fleet and the 19.2 million deadweight Panamax order book was equal to about 9% of the trading fleet. A brief look at tariffs. Retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on U.S. Soybean exports have left farmers in the U.S. searching for alternative markets for their record soybean crop. In the short term, the USDA sees the United States establishing a greater presence in other markets, such as the European Union, while a greater portion of Brazilian supply will be exported to China. Weather conditions in the European Union aided this flow of produce from the United States to Europe. This, in the view of USDA, should present a dramatic fall in U.S. exports. In the long-term, however, this might not be a feasible solution to the export problem created by these tariffs, assuming they are here to stay, which we all hope they will not. Let's finally turn to the outlook for our industry. Commodore Research remained bullish on the prospects of the Capesize market and expect more strength in Brazilian spot iron ore cargo volume through the end of the quarter and into early 2019. We expect to see strong iron ore import demand at least through the end of this year. According again to Commodore Research, going forward the next few months, we may set to see much lower grain exports, especially from Australia, than usually seen at this time of the year. This remains a troubling issue for them for upcoming Panamax prospects. To counterbalance this, Clarksons pointed out to several positive drivers, including the significant growth potential in coal imports into a range of Asian economies as we mentioned earlier on. In this environment, the Diana management team maintains the same views about the future course of the bulk carrier market as expressed in our most recent quarterly conference calls. This is that unless serious event take place down the road, leading to a distortion of the anticipated favorable balance of supply and demand, earnings and ship values should improve over the following quarters. A further strengthening of the balance sheet through efficient management of the company's capital structure will continue. Older ships will be sold and the board of directors will consider, in due course, the introduction of a dividend. I will now pass the call to our CFO Andreas Michalopoulos, who will provide us with the financial highlights of the third quarter and first nine months of 2018. Thank you.