Anastasios Margaronis
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Simeon and welcome to the participants of this first conference call of Diana Shipping Inc. in 2018. As we have done in the past, we will start by looking at the bulk carrier industry at the beginning of this year and compare them with those of over a year ago. This will provide us with a general idea for how much time charter rates have moved over the preceding 12 months period. On 3 January, 2017, the Baltic Dry Index stood at 953. On 2 January of this year we have closed at 1,230. The Baltic Panamax Index started 2017 at 811 and on the first rating day of this year it closed at 1,340. The Baltic Cape Index started 2017 at 1,538, having closed at 2,281 on 2 January, this year. It appears that 2016 will certainly be remembered that’s possibly one of the worst years of the last decade as we got income and earnings of the much discussed bulk carrier sector. Let’s look at macroeconomic development now. In the United States, the ISA [ph] manufacturing PMI kept moving higher in December of last year reaching 60.7. The new order components of this index reached the highest level since 2003. The euro area manufacturing PMI rose to 60.6 in December recording the best performance since these surveys [ph] began back in 1997. According to Clarkson, the German economy bolstered by high levels of domestic consumption, grew by 2.2% in 2017, which was the faster pace of growth since 2011. China’s economy grew by 6.1% in 2017 on a target rate of 6.5%. Global growth forecast for 2018 have been revised by the IMF upward by 0.2% to 3.9%. Overall, trade growth in goods and services for 2018 as forecasted by the IMF, is also expected to be strong at just about 4%. Let us now consider the demand and supply forecast which will evolve in – which were the benign in world economic environment. Demand first, according Clarkson the global seaborne dry bulk trade is estimated to have grown 4% in terms of tons and 5% in terms ton-miles in 2017. For 2018 global dry bulk trade is expected to grow by about 3% in terms of tons and 4% in terms of ton-mile. On the supply side Clarkson reported that in 2017 a total of 454 bulk carriers of a combined 38 million deadweights were delivered, while 215 vessels were sold for scrap resulting in fleet growth of 2.9%. According to Banchero Costa, these deliveries included 113 Panamaxes and post Panamaxes. For 2018, fleet growth is projected to slowdown to around 2% due to a significantly slower pace of deliveries following limited contracting activity in 2015-2016. Banchero Costa estimates the growth of the Panamax, post-Panamax and Babycape fleet to be 1% this year and 2% in 2019. General fleet development as we compare at the beginning of January this year, Clarksons’ report that the capesize fleet stood at 1,692 vessels of a combined 323.7 million tons, that’s a 7% increase in deadweight terms compared to the start of 2017. The equivalent figures for the Panamax fleet were 2016 million deadweight at the beginning of this year, which represented a 2.7% increase in deadweight terms compared to a year earlier. Let’s look at scrapping. As mentioned earlier on, according to Clarksons during 2017, a total 215 bulk carriers were sold for scrap compared to 378 ships amounting to 29.3 million deadweight scrap in 2016. Without a doubt, the improved earnings of these ships played a leading role in this drop in numbers of the modest vessels compared to 2016. According to Clarksons’ during 2017, 33 Capes and 49 Panamaxes were scrapped. Let’s look at the newbuilding order book. Clarksons reported a total of 76 million deadweight were on order as of the beginning of 2018 representing 9% of the global existing fleet. Those orders 16.2 million were Panamaxes representing 8% of the existing fleet and 43 million deadweight of Capes representing 13% of the existing fleet of Capes. As for Valemaxes, a type of ship that often attracts analysts’ interest, Gibson Shipbrokers report that in 2018, 16 such ships are expected to be delivered, while in 2019 another 14 are expected to join the fleet. Some of these new vessels will replace tonnage currently performing for Vale, especially the elderly VLOC conversion tonnage owned by Polaris. Vale expects to increase its export volume over the next 2 years. Turn to iron ore now, according to Clarksons, global seaborne iron ore trade is estimated to have grown by 4% to 1.477 billion metric tons in 2017 driven by robust growth in China’s iron ore imports following reforms in the steel industry which took place that year. Global seaborne iron ore trade is currently projected to expand 3% to around 1.524 billion tons in 2018. As for the iron ore stockpiles in major ports, these reached 150 million at the end of last year. According to Banchero Costa, this iron ore could produce enough steel to build 107 million cars, more than 3 times the company’s annual motor sales for enough to reach the moon is lined up in those details [ph]. Analysts are concerned that such huge stockpiles might pose a serious threat to crisis going forward. In 2017, Chinese crude steel production grew by 6% year-on-year to reach 831.7 million tons according to NVS data. Braemar predict that in 2018 growth of steel production will be close to flat. The stock levels of iron ore remain at current levels during 2018, there will be according to Braemar, they need to reduce iron ore imports by 37 million tons compared to 2017 just to remain and maintain the status quo. This is something that we need to work as the year develops. Turning to coking coal, according to Clarksons, global seaborne coking coal trade is estimated to have grown by 4% to around 255 million tons in 2017. This was the fastest pace of growth since 2013. Looking ahead, growth in global seaborne coking coal trade in 2018 is expected to be supported by growth in imports into a number of Asian countries, particularly India and Vietnam, where steel production is growing rapidly. Total exports are anticipated to grow by 3% in 2018. Turning to thermal coal now, according to Clarksons, global seaborne thermal coal trade is currently estimated to have grown by around 6% to reach 948 million tons in 2017, the fastest phase of growth since 2012. Looking ahead, growth in the global steam coal trade is currently expected to moderate in 2018 with current projections indicating growth of around 1% to 958 million tons. On the supply side Indonesia is expected to account for the majority of growth in seaborne exports in 2018 with a country well placed to meet growing demand of heat energy in emerging markets such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Philippines. According to Banchero Costa on an overall coal import basis Indonesia and Australia dominate coal exports to China accounting for 41% and 29% respectively of China’s import volume. Indonesia is the main source of lignite, while Australia is the main source of coking coal and steam coal. Let’s look at the grain trade, according to Clarksons during the 2016 to ‘17 season a total of 363 million tons of wheat and coarse grain cargos which shipped and increase of 4% compared to the previous season. For the 2017-2018 season the total of 366 million tons of such cargos are estimated to be shipped. They are presenting another 1% increase compared to the year earlier volumes. The global soybean trade is expected according to Banchero Costa to increase by 4.2% during the 2017-‘18 grain season thus reaching an impressive 150.4 million tons. Soybean trade continues to grow in prominence when several years ago it was a very small part of the total grain trade transportation statistics. Furthermore, despite the projected 18% decline in exports from 2016-‘17 season’s record shipments, the United States is expected to remain world’s largest producer and exporter of whet and coarse grains in 2017 to ‘18 exporting a total of 18 million tons. Looking briefly at bulk carrier earnings, according to Clarksons thus far in 2018 the average 1 year time charter rates stood at around $17,500 per day for Capes and $12,900 per day average for Panamax Kamsarmax. And average time charter rates have been taken for Atlantic and Pacific delivery areas in calculating the above figures. Let’s turn finally to the outlook of our trade. According to Gibson the last few months this has shown the volumes and tonnage of supply probably more closely aligned than many have previously believed. With the limited forward order book and some slippage of new building VLOCs in 2019 the growth should be comfortably absorbed in the market. The world economy is in a healthier position and Gibson feel that this year this has market and dry cargo market in general would be significantly better than in the previous couple of years. We at Diana generally agree with this assessment of the state of the bulk carrier market. It is finally possible to say with a reasonable degree of confidence that after a period of about 10 months during which the bulk carrier market had shown the steady turning, a balance state between supply and demand may have been reached. This is extremely helpful to both ship owners and shipping analysts in drawing meaningful conclusion about the future trend of earnings by looking at future supply and demand statistics. This is something that would not have been done credibly thus far as it requires magnitude of surplus tonnage in the bulk carrier market was unknown. Therefore and as mentioned in our previous quarterly conference call the management team of Diana Shipping remains cautiously optimistic about the earnings over the short-term and medium-term and reasonably confident that the already strong balance sheet of Diana Shipping will strengthen ever further over that periods. On this note, I will pass the call to our CFO, Andreas Michalopoulos, who will provide us financial highlights of the last quarter of 2017 and the full year. Thank you.