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Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 25, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to Diana Shipping’s Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host Ed Nebb, Investor Relations Advisor. Thank you Mr. Nebb, you may begin.

Ed Nebb

Analyst

Thanks very much Robb and thanks all of you for joining us for the Diana Shipping Inc. 2014 third quarter conference call. The members of the Diana Shipping management team who are with us today are Mr. Simeon Palios, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Anastasios Margaronis, President; Mr. Andreas Michalopoulos, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Ioannis Zafirakis, Chief Operating Officer and Secretary; and Ms. Maria Dede, Chief Accounting Officer. Before management begins their remarks, let me briefly summarize the Safe Harbor notice. Certain statements made during the conference call, which are not statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. The forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, expectations, projects and beliefs as the future events that may not prove to be accurate. For a description of the risks and other factors that may cause future results to differ from what is expressed or forecast in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. And now with that, let me turn the call over to Mr. Simeon Palios, Chairman and CEO of Diana Shipping.

Simeon Palios

Analyst

Thank you Ed. Good morning and thank you for joining us today to discuss the results of Diana Shipping Inc. for the 2014 third quarter. During the recent quarter Diana Shipping delivered positive net income while also utilizing our strong capital position to enhance shareholder value by expanding our fleet and repurchasing of our common shares in the open market under our share repurchase program. To review our financial results the company’s net income was US$7.7 million and net income available to common stockholders was US$6.3 million for the third quarter of 2014. This compared to a net loss and net loss available to common shareholders of US$3.2 million in the third quarter of 2013. The results in the 2014 third quarter included income from the company’s investment in Diana Containerships Inc. Time charter revenues increased to US$45.1 million for the third quarter of 2014, from US$41.9 million for the same quarter of 2013. The 7.6% increase over the year-ago period was mainly due to the enlargement of our fleet partially offset by decreased time charter range. The company ended the 2014 third quarter with a solid balance sheet reflecting cash and cash equivalents of more than US$201 million. Long-term debt including the current portion was US$452.2 million compared to stockholders equity of over US$1.3 billion. Our solid capital position enabled the company to take advantage of the share repurchase plan previously authorized by the Board of Directors in May 2014. Specifically Diana Shipping repurchased and retired 1,038,645 shares at an aggregate cost of approximately US$10.0 million during the recent quarter, reflecting an average repurchase price of US$9.65 per common share. As a result the company issued an outstanding shares as of September 30, 2014 decreased to 82,352,725. Additionally the company has deployed it’s financial resources to continue the strategic…

Anastasios Margaronis

Analyst

Thank you Simon. Good morning and a warm welcome to all the participants to this quarterly conference call of Diana Shipping Inc. During the last few months we witnessed extreme volatility as we got large [indiscernible] earnings. On June 30th Baltic Grains explore that 650 and on the last trading day of September it stood at 1,053. Yesterday the index closed at 1,317. The Baltic Cape Index started at the third quarter of this year at 1,871 and yesterday closed at 2,975 having reached a peak of 3,781 on November 4th of this year. And for the Baltic Panamax Index on June 30th it closed at 423 and yesterday it stood at 1,059 having reached a peak of 1,241 on November 3, 2014. Sentimentally the large rolling these wide movements and from euphoric it became pretty negative within the space of a few weeks. Capesize average earnings for 2014 stand up to 14,089 per day while on October 31st it has gone up to 24,625 per day. For the Panamax numbers were less spectacular with a beautiful average of $7,705 per day for 2014 and $9,660 per day on October 31st. We’re trying to explain these movements and look at the forecast made by some of the most profitable dry bulk shipping analysis. The current economic growth according to the IMF is forecasted to grow at 3.3% this year and 3.8% for 2015. This was primarily caused by downgrades in their outlook for the Eurozone, Russia, the Middle East and Japan. For 2015 the rate of growth is estimated to be 3.8%. This represents a slight downward revision of the forecast given in July which was 4%. The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.2% this year. The IMF's forecast for growth in the Eurozone as a whole is…

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

Thank you, Stacey and good morning. I am pleased to be discussing today with you Diana’s operational results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2014. For the third quarter 2014, net income amounted to $7.7 million, net income to common stockholders amounted to $6.3 million and the earnings per share $0.08. Time charter revenues increased to $45.1 million, compared to $41.9 million in the third quarter of 2014. The increase was attributable to the revenues derived from the vessels Artemis delivered in August 2015 and Myrsini delivered in October 2013, PS Palios delivered in December 2013, Crystalia delivered in February 2014, Atalandi delivered in May 2014 and Myrsini delivered in August 2014. This increase was partially offset by decreased revenues due to the decrease in average time charter rate that we achieved for our vessels during the quarter, compared to the same quarter of 2013. Ownership days were 3,537 for the third quarter of 2014, compared to 3,072 in the same period of 2013. Fleet utilization was 99.7%, as in the same quarter of 2013, and a daily time charter equivalent rate was $12,295 compared to $12,990 in the same quarter of 2013. Voyage expenses were $2.6 million for the quarter. Vessel operating expenses amounted to $22 million, compared to $19.7 million in the third quarter of 2013, an increase by 12%. The increase was attributable to the 15% increase in ownership days, resulting from the enlargement of the fleet. Despite the increase in total operating expenses daily operating expenses decreased mainly to due to decreased group cost, taxes and other operating expenses. This decrease was partly offset by increased repairs and maintenance and environmental costs. Daily operating expenses were $6,219 for the third quarter of 2014 compared to $6,424 in the same quarter of 2013…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We’ll now be conducting the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question is from the line of Fotis Giannakoulis with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Yes, hello and thank you. It seems that the market has been developing the way that you have been expecting and telling us for quite a long time but looking forward then without trying to ask you to make any forecast, at this point what do you see being better opportunities for investing your excess capital that you have given the fact that you made -- you have open stock buyback program and you acquired some shares, how does this influence your investment decisions vis-à-vis your share buyback program?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

Hi Fortis. This is Ioannis speaking. The share buyback program is there as we have said in the past to buy shares to invest in our company. At the moment while we do not find a vessel that technical fits our needs and certainly we are there to invest as we have said, a particular amount of money every two months let`s say either by buying a vessel or two or buying back our shares from the moment they are priced attractively. So the share buyback program by itself does not influence at all our investment strategy. Don’t forget also that it is the same for us to buyback our shares or by a vessel regardless of what we think about the market. As we have said in the past, we are here to keep the investment program intact and don’t change our investment strategies, meaning that we will keep investing a particular amount of money every two months as I said earlier.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you Ioannis that’s very clear. And regarding the different asset classes, I know that you have mentioned many times in the past that the dry bulk market moves the same direction, but you mentioned earlier that the order book for a Capesize this next year is going to be around 5% higher than what it is this year. We know that Panamaxes this year they have significantly underperformed the other asset classes. Do you see this discrepancy between Panamaxes and Capesizes in the rate performance to be normalizing next year and how do you view the relative asset values?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

As we have said in the past we feel and we know because we have seen that in the past that in the medium to long-term the pricing is similar for every type of vessel in our sector. In the short term and while there is an optimism around for a particular sector you may see these discrepancies but eventually market prevails and the pricing goes to the same direction for every sector in our part of the wall. The fact that the vessel cost today at Capesize cost $50 million and a Panamax $25 or $30 million is reflecting the charter rates and expectations but in the medium to long-term is going to be purely on market conditions and the pricing is going to be better. By better I mean more appropriate as regards Panamaxes and Capes and you can understand you know better that this is going to happen because if for example people see a sustainable rate for a Capesize which is more than two or three times than a the Panamax, the charterers will change their partialling to go for Panamax instead of paying expensive charter rates for a Cape and the opposite. But these can only happen in the medium to long-term.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you Ioannis, with regarding the drivers for next year, I understand that according your expectations you see that there is an oversupply and that demand and supply they will move very closely to each other, but what can drive the demand higher? There is a lot of discussion about increasing iron ore imports from China, but given the fact that you mentioned that still production growth in China is not going to be that size it's going to be around 1%. Do you think that the decline of domestic iron ore production will be sufficient driver? And what other drivers do you see ahead but they can surprise to upside on the demand and if you can give us some timing of the potential increase in iron ore imports next year that a lot of discussion has been made about?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

We strongly feel that we should not rely on demand factors for the market to improve, we should not rely our thesis on demand getting much better for the market to improve. What it should happen is on the supply side of the vessels, the demand is already very, very, very strong as occurred in the past and expecting something which is really, really strong to become stronger, much stronger is not an easy bet to take. What we should concentrate that is to look at the supply of the vessels, the new building orders, relaying up of vessels or the scraping of the vessel in order to have faith about the market. And making the bet for demand to become worse than what it is today are higher than the market improving on the demand side. And if you are asking us for iron ore to be particular, about iron ore prices or production is something that we are not in a position to say, we read the same report as you do and we are not here to predict something like this.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

And in terms of supply and how discipline do you see the industry -- the side of the ship owners being in terms of ordering and there is some discussion about the potential cancellations of last year further for issues with the letters of credit. Is this something that is real and how do you view the ordering activity going forward?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

What is real is that we recently had analyst, banker, private investors saying that they don’t like what they see, this is a good starting point. You remember that we were the only ones that we were talking about something like this. Now that people start seeing clearly that things are not so good, but we’ll make the market better and on the supply side as you are saying, we are seeing a better attitude from the investors, form the ship owners stalwarts, new building stalwarts putting more and more vessels into the water. We are on the right direction as regards thinking about the market not being so well for the near future. I know that it sounds contradicting but it's a bad thing when everyone -- it's a good thing rather when everyone thinks that the market is really bad and we are going towards that direction, because that’s the way the market is going to turn positive at day point.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you Ioannis. One last question is probably more for Andreas, just trying to understand your income statement. There is a significant contribution from the Diana Containership at $12.5 million. Can you at elaborate on this please?

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

Yes, this is basically a U.S. GAAP accounting issue and we are using the [indiscernible] method as we have from the beginning and this is why you see with our share of $40 million that I think have increased in Diana Containership and the asset value of $2.51 per share you see a positive effect on the income statement.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Yeah, thank you, good afternoon and let me just reiterate congrats on a very good performance in a tough environment. Couple of macro-questions to begin with. First I just want a follow-up on the earlier commentary vis-à-vis demand and I completely agree with you given how demand has been so strong it’s hard to make the case of it going stronger and talking about the rest of the upside or the downside, but my question is really more to do with sort of the -- are there any sort of structural sifts in the demand side of the equation. And so there is clearly restructuring going on in China’s economy, India seems to be as much of a risk as it is an opportunity. So I am curious in terms of not just what the outlook next year or the year after that for demand in your view how are you seeing the structural implications of all the different moving parts on the demand side of the equation?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

Well structurally we tried to touch upon the most important element on the demand side in particular, and those are things that are happening in China and India, the rest are moving so slowly compared to these two that really will not have any significant effect on the supply-demand balance. What worries us a lot is the realization now in China that the country cannot continue on the path that they have been following up till now as regards pollution. Now that may have profound effect on the production of sea the importation of coal and general movement of bulk commodities that we have been talking about. Now that only shown is far more important than any other structural changes might take place worldwide, either in developing nations or developed countries, because if they all these influences in structural changes fail in significance compared to what might happen if China imposed strict regulations in an orderly way on pollution. So that’s worrying in our view and we don’t see anything else which is more important and more following than what is happening in China now and that’s what we are going to be doing. Unfortunately we don’t see any beneficial structural changes as regards demand for bulk commodities, whatever we look at and whatever it seems to be significant tends to be negative and that’s why I reinforce what again as [indiscernible] mentioned earlier that supply is the issue here. And unless we rein in supply in a proper manner we are not going to have the any sustained period of healthy earnings in the large bulk carrier sector.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Okay, that’s very helpful. Just a couple of specific questions, one is the coverage in 2015 I apologize, if I missed it if you already mentioned it but if I remember correctly you were around 30% covered as of the end of July for 2015. Can you just update us on that where that stands today?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

Around 35%, but as we have said in the past many times you know that we are consistent with our strategy. We will keep staggering the way we are fixing the vessels. And by that we will have a spot exposure together with some fixed revenues and at the end of the day we are aiming for the average of the market for the entire year for the entire of our fleet. Logistically though this is not so easy to choose a particular moment when your vessel is going to be opening for the next charter but we are doing a good job there. And famous graph that you know that we have with the yellow bars that they are fixed revenue base is the same as it used to be a year, two years and three years ago, the only thing that has changed is the number of vessels that we keep adding more and more vessels.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Okay. And then just last question from me on cash deployment, you put some money into Diana Containership and you have done a buyback now. I guess the only sort of missing piece is a dividend and you haven’t paid a dividend since the end of 2008 and I clearly understand the current market environment and dividends are sticky but from your standpoint it could be a nice sort of another differentiating factor for the company versus some of the other shippers in the group overall. So how do you sort of think about balancing all the cash deployment that you are doing in a positive way which maybe also throwing in a dividend there and restarting a dividend albeit maybe small in the beginning but growing it as you move forward?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

The best differentiator is being factor that we have as a company is being consistent with the strategies that we have stated back in 2005. And consistency says to us that as the lower part of the cycle, we should keep our dry bulk to invest in order to create shareholders value, differentiating in a manner by introducing a dividend just to gain $0.20 on the share price, or $0.30 is something that is not an option for us. We find this part of our industry, this timing a very attractive one to invest as much money as possible and by doing that we will create a much greater value for our shareholders rather than giving them a small or a big dividend at this stage.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Right, but I mean then the question begs, your comment begs the question, are you implying that you’re going to see, that you'll be putting a lot of cash into building a vessel and what you to be potentially as the bottom of the market or the sentiment has gotten very negative. So is that what we can expect over the next several quarters? Is Dina Shipping investing in acquisitions whether in the second hand market most likely.

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

This is the strategy, but certainly it will not be at a particular moment it will be during the next year and half, in fact in the manner as we have explained many times we will try to invest most of our dry powder.

Anastasios Margaronis

Analyst

And also use leverage together with every investment of about 50%, so every vessel we keep buying you can expect us to leverage out to around 50%.

Amit Mehrotra

Analyst

Okay just a last question I promise, can you just comment on what level you think your dry powder is at this point?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

The cost that you see together if you add to that 50% finance so you can come up with --

Anastasios Margaronis

Analyst

Some vessels that are mortgaged, so you can add 50% on the un-mortgage vessels as well and we will find it very quickly.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Jon Chappell

Analyst · Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Just one quick follow up from me, Andreas, could you explain a little bit more the impact of the Diana Containership. I’m just bit confused, the [indiscernible] 1.4 million in net income in the third quarter, yet your contribution was 12.5 million. I know you still have with your investment, is this basically just marking your investment to market and is this a one-time in nature type markup and going forward we’re just going to see the percentage that you own of the net income, what was that line again?

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst · Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Basically what we do, we purchased as I said but maybe unclearly before $40 million worth of share at a price of $2.51 per share. But if you take the difference between our book value which was around $3.5 per share the ECI book value that is together with a purchase price you see that we have an income there of a bit lower than $1 which gives you the difference that you see here and the impact in the income statement. So that’s basically the equity method that we use and this is where you find a difference of $12 million to $148,000 dollars.

Jon Chappell

Analyst · Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. But that’s essentially one-time in nature right, if you don’t buy any more of containerships in the fourth quarter that won't shift anymore.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Spiro Dounis with UBS. Please go ahead with your question.

Spiro Dounis

Analyst

Hi, good morning gentlemen. Thanks for taking my question. I’ll just keep these brief hopefully. So we’ve seen some consolidation among the bulkers and I know you mentioned one-off vessel purchases going forward. I was just wondering if you could comment on moves to consolidate among bulkers and if that makes sense for Diana at some point.

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

We have stated our opinion on that. We think that consolidation involve large amounts of money to be spent at a particular moment in the cycle, something that we’re really opposed to having a dry powder of $500 million, $600 million and spending $400 of those in one acquisition is something that we don’t like. The other thing that we want to say is that we have noticed recent measures in acquisitions but I think most of them they were out of necessity rather than anything else. Having not the ability to go public leads some people to merge. That's it.

Spiro Dounis

Analyst

Makes sense, thanks. Then just one last housekeeping I’m sorry if I missed it, could you just remind us again how the 2015 deliveries are being financed and where you’re in that process?

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

No, a bit early to finance the 2015 deliveries although we have started talks and very confident that we will -- it will be easy to find finance for those and attractive finance, but typically we wait a little bit in order not to pay a very hefty commitment fee.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The next question is from the line of Salvatore Vitale with Sterne, Agee. Please go ahead with your question.

Salvatore Vitale

Analyst

Hello all and thank you for taking my question, I appreciate I know it's been a long call. Really the question I have is just looking at your chartering strategy and looking at that in the context of your outlook for the market next year. So, you sound very conservative in your forecast for the dry bulk market next year and yet you had about 35% coverage and I look at the say for Panamax vessels, I look at the difference between the current spot rates of about $8,500 and then look at the -- when your time charter rate are on the 75,000 deadweight ton vessels about 10,200. So, do you need to see a much wider spread and if so what kind of spread do you need to see there to increase your charter coverage for next year?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

The charter coverage is not going to be increased as such, what we are doing is we are fixing our vessels and we are trying to position them to open at a point where we don’t have other vessels opening. And we are in the fortunate position to have more than in total more than 40 vessels and that allows us to do a physical hedging and by physical hedging we mean that we do not have to worry a lot about fixing a vessel for a year, or two years or three years since by doing what we are doing, we can have more or less the average of the market and this is what we are aiming for. I have said in the past that our strategy is to be 50% correct rather than 100% wrong.

Salvatore Vitale

Analyst

Right, that’s very helpful. Thank you very much. And then just the follow-up Andreas on the question earlier on the income from Diana Containerships, if you exclude the effect of the -- of that difference between the price at which you acquired an additional stake and the book value what would that amount have been, I calculate roughly $300,000 to $400,000 positive is that about right?

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

Come again on your question.

Salvatore Vitale

Analyst

Yeah, so in other words if you just look at the income that Diana Containerships generated in the third quarter and you exclude any other effect, what would that line item have been?

Andreas Michalopoulos

Analyst

Around -- I think around the number you said.

Operator

Operator

At this time, I would like to turn the call back to management for closing comments.

A - Simeon Palios

Analyst

Thank you again for your interest in and support of Diana Shipping. We look forward to speaking with you next quarter.