Earnings Labs

Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN)

Q1 2022 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 27, 2022

$12.48

-1.93%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to Driven Brand's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Chris, and I will be your conference operator today. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Joining the call this morning are Jonathan Fitzpatrick, President and Chief Executive Officer; Tiffany Mason, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Rachel Webb, Vice President of Investor Relations. During today's call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures on the company's Investor Relations website and in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Please be advised that during the course of this call, management may also look forward-looking statements that reflect expectations for the future. These statements are based on current information, and actual results may differ materially from these expectations. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are detailed in the company's SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed today containing the company's earnings release. Information about any non-GAAP financial measures referenced, including a reconciliation of those measures to GAAP measures can also be found in the company's SEC filings and the earnings release available on the Investor Relations website. Today's prepared remarks will be followed by a question-and-answer session. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Jonathan. Please go ahead, sir.

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Thank you. And good morning. We had another great quarter across the board. Our fifth as a public company, and are excited to share the results over the course of today's call. Driven is the largest automotive services company in North America. Our diversified portfolio of needs-based services provides many levers to grow revenue and profit through same-store sales, new units, and M&A. Our total addressable market is massive. Over $300 billion and growing, and yet we have less than 5% share in this highly fragmented industry. We will continue to grow and generate cash because of our core competitive advantages. our multiple levers to open new units; we can franchise, build, or buy; our supply chain capabilities that keep us in stock and allow us to take share and price when others cannot; our scale, which is growing, is a sustainable and increasingly significant competitive advantage in our highly fragmented industry. Over the long term Driven has and will consistently deliver organic double-digit revenue growth and double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth. That together with our asset-light business model, means we generate a ton of cash. And our needs based services and franchise business model help insulate our profit from the impacts of inflation. We then invest that cash to further accelerate our growth by building new units and layering on acquisitions, which as we have proven, adds massive incremental upside to our model. Our Dream Big Plan of at least $850 million of adjusted EBITDA by 2026 is on track. Exceeding that plan is now our primary focus. And we're making great strides already. Driven is growth and cash. I want to take a moment to highlight our Q1 results. And all credit goes to our team, our amazing franchisees and our loyal and long-term customers. Compared to Q1 of…

Tiffany Mason

Management

Thanks, Jonathan, and good morning, everyone. Our fiscal 2022 is off to a great start. We've strong first quarter results despite the numerous macroeconomic factors that Jonathan outlined which impacted the retail industry this quarter. And we've positioned ourselves well to continue to post strong results throughout the remainder of 2022. The entire Driven Brands team has worked diligently to ensure that we have the right service offering, inventory, and marketing strategies to capitalize on consumer demand. Vehicle miles travelled are still expected to increase in 2022 and they will continue to be an influx of demand as consumers look to bring extra miles out of their vehicles. Driven Brands provides best-in-class services in an efficient manner which should allow us to continue to gain market share. Diving into our first quarter results. System-wide sales for $1.3 billion from which we generated $468 million of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was $119 million and adjusted EPS with $0.28, another top to bottom beat. System-wide sales growth in the quarter was driven by same-store sales growth as well as the addition of new stores. We have tremendous life space to continue growing our store counts in this $300 billion plus highly fragmented and growing industry. Our franchise company Greenfield and M&A pipelines are all robust and we are aggressively growing our footprint. In the first quarter, we added 114 net new stores which included 79 AGN sites creating the platform to expand our Glass business into the U.S. And we continue to lean into opportunities in the Quick Lube and Car Wash businesses. Same-store sales growth was 16% for the quarter. We posted double-digit comps each month of the quarter despite the surge of the Omicron variant in January and rising gas prices in March. And we once again outpaced the industry across…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question is from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hey guys, this is Michael Kessler on for Simeon. Thank you for taking our questions. First I wanted to ask about the same-store sales in Q1. If there's any more color you guys can provide on the split between car count and traffic versus inflation and on price increases and then you mentioned as well be underlying ticket tailwinds. And then, looking into the balance of the year, compared it'll get a little bit tougher but if we think about the underlying, I guess comp rate in the business and might kind of high teens rate on a three-year basis, any reason to think that shouldn’t continue and could even accelerate because as you guys were saying inflation is accelerating but demand seems to be holding in pretty well.

Tiffany Mason

Management

Hey, Michael thanks for your questions. So a couple of thoughts for your specific first of all at Q1. So we saw positive car count as I said in my script -- what positive car count as well as positive ticket overall for the business. Certainly our just given the current environment, our performance is skewed more towards ticket today that it is to car count but we are seeing good momentum in both. The positive ticket is driven by two things. It's driven by inflation and our ability to pass along price to the consumer. I think Jonathan and I both today spoke about the fact that with the our higher average ticket and our need-based services that afford this the ability to pass along any inflation we're seeing and we're doing that as we need to manage our cost as well as continue to drive, balancing that continue to drive traffic. So we are also thus seeing the increased complexity of vehicles, also to continue to drive ticket up and I gave a statistic in my comments today about 30% attachment rate specifically in our maintenance business which is driving ticket as well. So all of those factors are driving our performance. If you just zero in on ticket for a minute, then I would say it's if you're thinking about mix versus price, it is in Q1 more driven by price than mix. Relative to the comps across the year, I think I said when we gave guidance last quarter, we expect the first half to be stronger than the second half, it's just because compares are easier in the first half than the second but still true today. I think as you think about the landscape over the course of the year, we as we said multiple times today feel really good about the environment that we're operating then and our ability to navigate any supply chain and inflationary pressures. Certainly first half stronger than second half though we don’t think that there's dramatic difference across the segment as we move through the year. So, not a lot of difference versus what we said 90 days ago. Though we had a great Q1 and we are enthusiastic about the balance of the year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay great, that's helpful. And a quick follow-up on the Car Wash segment. While it’s a significant amount of EBITDA margin expansion one, one we were expecting on I would say constant was above our expectations but not dramatically higher. So, anything to call out there, I think it was the highest margin or at least a couple of years, so we think the onset of COVID, so I don’t think if anything you can speak to what was driving there and the sustainability there. Thank you.

Tiffany Mason

Management

So Michael, great question. So, specifically in the Car Wash segment. The segment adjusted EBITDA margin that you're seeing, so roughly 35% versus somewhere around 30% Q1 of last year. Very predominantly driven by the international Car Wash business. We saw great volume in the international Car Wash business predominantly driven by dust storms. So, that incremental volume that we saw gave us a great opportunity to leverage fixed expenses and really drive fantastic flow through in the international Car Wash business and that's what driving that segment performance overall. Great question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, right. Thanks guys, good quarter. Good luck for rest of the year.

Tiffany Mason

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Christopher Horvers with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Thanks, and good morning. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing and the converted Take 5 Car Wash brands and the one the Greenfield location openings in terms of cust. Behaviour membership ticket as we think about your opportunity to rebrand the rest of the locations in 2022.

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Hey Chris, Jonathan here. Thanks for the question. Look, I think we mentioned on the call that will give our sort of more fulsome update on the rebranding strategy at the next earnings call. But look, we're really pleased with what we're seeing. So, we got about think Tiffany mentioned about 75 stores that are rebranded. That's part of creating to the network effect in the markets that we have. So, people know we got multiple brands, multiple car washes under one brand in a particular trade area. You saw that we're driving membership subscriptions up. We're very pleased with the growth there. Greenfield stores, we've opened a handful so far in Q1 very early in the ramp of those stores but we're excited about the quality of the real-estate and the early opening trends from those stores. We've also opened a couple of our co-development sites. We'll we've opened a Car Wash with the Quick Lube on the same piece of real-estate. Pretty excited about the early results in those stores. So, I think as the year progresses, we'll give more information around the ramp of these stores. And I would say that when it comes to the national rebranding strategy, we continue to move forward which by definition means we're pleased with the progress.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Got it. And then, following-up on earlier question just around the unit count in the maintenance segment. It seems like in oil change is the most deferrable sort of service -- sort of necessary maintenance. Are you seeing that and then as a relative question, just as a point of reference, does sort of the late spring have any impact on your business and if it does what divisions would you see that?

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Yes. We're not seeing any demand degradation in our oil change business whatsoever, Chris. I think when we look at various studies that have been published by various banks and other sources recently. What we believe is that consumers when you think about tightening or spending may reduce spending on sort of discretionary items far quicker than they will and so that non-discretionary items like maintaining the automobile. So, we're not seeing any demand in the structure and whatsoever in our Quick Lube business. In terms of a later spring, what I promised investors that when we first came public is that I wouldn’t use weather as a positive or a negative. So, I won't comment on whether it's a positive or a negative for our business. But what I will tell you is a later spring means that you have a later sort of pollen season when you have more pollen on cars. Typically people want to get the car washed a little bit more. So, I think that's the only sort of a point that I would give you on late spring trading impact.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

I'm definitely in that cab. Thank you, very much.

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Okay.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Peter Benedict with Baird. Your line is open.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I guess first question just to -- how does the rising interest rate environment impact your view on the appropriate pace and level of M&A and leverage for the business as you're thinking about the next few years. And if it doesn’t, maybe is there a level of which it maybe does?

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Yes. It's a good question, Peter. When it comes to leverage, Tiffany will talk about that and sort of what we said in the past around our sort of five times debt leverage and sort of the guard rails there. In terms of M&A, the rising interest rate environment does not change our calculus in terms of how we think about M&A, Peter. We ultimately ask ourselves two questions with any transaction that we do: 1) Can we make the acquired asset better and, 2) Can that acquired asset make Driven better. And those are the two primary questions we ask ourselves. We have asked ourselves in the past, we'll continue to ask ourselves in the future. And right now as of today, the rising impact rising interest rate has had no impact in terms of our calculus or underwriting thesis when it comes to M&A.

Tiffany Mason

Management

Peter, I think just to tag on the Jonathan's question there. I think a couple of things I would share. The number one, I think we've got great liquidity as we sit here today right both in terms of cash on the balance sheet as well as access to our revolving credit facilities. We've talked before about our sale lease act strategy and the ability to and monetize our real-estate portfolio. So, there's still opportunity there should we need it. And then of course, if we think about leaning into opportunity is and certainly in Car Wash and now it's in Glass, and as you will know having talked to us about the Glass opportunity over the last 60 days or so 90 days. The initial investment in the Glass business is quite low for the return that we can see. So, and I'm not sure that I think the rising rate environment changes our outlook dramatically. Right. We feel really good about where we're positioned today.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And just one follow-up on if could on the Car Wash business. Have you taken any price in U.S. Car Wash, I know you didn't and Take 5 you've done some but not sure if you've done that in U.S. Car Wash. And it doesn’t sound like it but or I mean you're not -- I'm assuming you're not seeing any uptick in subscription attrition, I mean the subscription numbers were really good. But just curious on that or any trade down into lower cost washes, that kind of thing. Any color there would be great, thank you.

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Yes. And -- no, we haven’t sort of systematically taken price in the Car Wash business, Peter. I mean we've got sort of a range of different prices for our car wash customers both in terms of the A la carte and also the subscription model. So, we've not sort of taken price there. Again I go back to it's such an unbelievably accretive business model with super little labor. So, that feels like no need to take aggressive price there. I think its menu management and making sure that we're getting customers into the right A la carte wash or sort of making sure we've got the right subscription model options for customers. So, that is where we stand today in terms of attrition with Wash Club subscribers, no, nothing has changed or we see no change in sort of attrition rates in terms of those that membership base.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Thanks, very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Liz Suzuki with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Liz Suzuki

Analyst

Great, thank you. So, based on your comment about the full-year guidance and Tiffany particularly your comments about how much shift first quarter performance be your internal expectations and the plans update the guidance in the second quarter release. Should we expect the cadence of guidance that dates to be every two quarters on a go-forward basis or was there any other factor that caused that gave you pause on raising the guidance this quarter?

Tiffany Mason

Management

Well, that's awesome. Thanks for asking the question, it gives me an opportunity to clarify our guidance philosophies. So, thanks for opening the door, I appreciate that. So, look I think obviously the IPO didn’t in January of 2021. And I think it was certainly important over the quarters of 2021 to make sure that we were crystal clear and very transparent with straight about our performance quarter-to-quarter as we were a new public company and everybody was getting used to who we were and what our story was and how we how our business model works and how we make money. And we took that to heart, and we made sure that we were providing those updates regularly last year. I think as we came into 2022 and we're starting to mature, although we're still relatively new on the scene, we're taking the opportunity to set a very specific guidance philosophy and the guidance philosophy, we said and I think we were very clear about it last quarter was to say, we're going to provide annual guidance at the start of a fiscal year, we're going to let the first six months of the year play out the way that they they should, and they will, including M&A because we are a very acquisitive company. And then as we get to the middle part of the year, we're going to provide you an update. And we're going to provide you an update on performance organically as well as our M&A activity and give you insight into our forecast for the back half of the year. So our -- it was no new decision today, we're coming into the release today to decide not to update guidance that was simply sticking with that guiding philosophy that we shared on February 16. We think it's the right thing to do to keep folks focused on the long term, frankly. And we were transparent today and telling you that we beat our internal forecasts by $12 million. So we're here to build shareholder value over the long term. And we're going to continue to operate our playbook and to continue to execute and continue to exceed expectations to the best of our ability. So thanks for the question, as I appreciate it.

Liz Suzuki

Analyst

Great, thank you for clarifying that. And then just a follow up on some of some of your segment growth year, which was very impressive across the board. I guess the only segment that came in a little lower than our EBITDA -- platform services, which it sounds like was constrained by supply chain pressures event. So how should we think about those headwinds as we adjust our models for the segment going through the rest of the year?

Tiffany Mason

Management

Yes, that's great. So first, I would say remember platform services is 10% or less, depending on the quarter of total EBITDA so as a contributing factor, relatively insignificant but -- it certainly platform services is where we're seeing the most significant supply chain pressure, right. That's the business that is on the frontline as it relates to navigating supply chain challenges, making sure we're moving products across the ocean, getting it to the right locations and making sure we have products in the right position and navigating any price challenges. So they're doing a fantastic job. We've got a dedicated team, certainly top notch in the industry and we're managing that better than 80% of the industry that's fragmented. But certainly that's where you're seeing the most significant source of that pressure.

Liz Suzuki

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Tiffany Mason

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Kate McShane, with Goldman Sachs, your line is open.

Kate McShane

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our question. Thank you for all the additional details around AGN. We're just curious given the amount of time you now have had this business, but the biggest surprise about the business, maybe is that you didn't appreciate before, during the due diligence. And I also think you mentioned that glass repairs are growing as a percentage of total auto repairs in the industry. And we were curious what was driving that?

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Yes. Hey, Kate, Jonathan, here, thanks for the question. I think there's no real big surprise because we've done 80 M&A deals over the last seven or eight years, so our diligence team and underwriting team is pretty solid. So we have a good ability to actually underwrite what we're buying. So I'd say the only surprise we have is upside surprise, in terms of how great and big the opportunity is to grow in glass. Right. So I'm even more enthusiastic about the space than when we did the deal in late December. So that's number one. Number two, in terms of growth, I think what we said was the glass space is sort of a $5 billion plus space and growing. So I think there's a couple of things happening there Kate, one is the calibration services required with glass replacement. So most vehicles since about 2015 have a forward facing camera, mounted on that front windshield. And if you replace that windshield, you have to recalibrate that forward facing camera, because that really is sort of the central nervous system associated with all the eight African components on the vehicle. So that's driving sort of price or the size of the size of the repair check. I think what we're also pretty bullish about is as we continue to sort of look at massive infrastructure building in the United States and all the roadworks and all the construction that's going to come with that. We do think that there will be some nice incremental tailwinds from that in terms of glass repair. And the last thing I would say glass replacement, I should say. And the last thing I would say is when you think about this major acquisition, plus our carwash acquisition from a few years ago these are both car agnostic, right? So we're going to be fixing glass and replacing glass on all vehicle types. And obviously, in our carwash business we're going to be washing all vehicle types as well. So strategically, these are two really important things that we did and sort of set driven up for the next 20 years. Thank you.

Kate McShane

Analyst

And if I could just ask a follow up question to the platform services questions answered before, do you have any visibility into the supply chain between now and the end of the year? How much improvement you expect to see and how you're managing inventory as a result?

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Look, Kate it's kind of like asking how long is a piece of string in terms of the supply chain? Because, it almost changes weekly. But look, there's a bunch of things that we know, one is that there's continued pressure on sort of the production supply chain, particularly if you've got overseas suppliers, we know that, the cost of containers, when we look at the cost of containers, shipping containers pre-COVID versus now it's up 300% in many cases. We have a dedicated team that are focused on, multiple supply sources, moving some of those supply sources from overseas to domestic or in Latin America, our team is working and pulling all the levers and leveraging our scale, which is obviously hugely important in this space. But our internal view on this Kate is that, we're going to continue with, I think sort of the current operating environment or supply chain challenges, minimally through the balance of 2022. Minimally through the balance of 2022. And quite frankly for us, this is now our normal operating conditions. So we're learning to, to live and work and thrive in this challenging environment but we don't see any major reduction in the challenges, certainly as we look at the balance of this calendar year. Thank you.

Kate McShane

Analyst

The next question is from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair. Your line is open.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst

Hi, good morning. I guess I want to talk about, the nice EBITDA margin expansion that you had in the quarter I recall, if I'm not mistaken that originally you were expecting flattish EBITDA margins for the year. And I understand you're not updating your full year guidance. But I'm just wondering, are there implicit pressures that you're expecting, the remaining three quarters of this year that didn't occur in the first quarter? And then secondarily, in the maintenance segment? I know there was there was some margin compression in that segment. Tiffany, I don't know if that was, mix of company owned growing routes or their franchise? Or if there's something else you're seeing in that business, but it'd be it would be helpful to get some clarity there.

Tiffany Mason

Management

Sure, Sharon, thanks for the questions. So let me actually start with your second one. And we'll work back to total company during the maintenance segment specifically, so maintenance segment, adjusted EBITDA margin was 29.4%. It's about 40 basis points better sequentially, from Q4, but down about 200 basis points year-over-year. So if you remember back to what we talked about in Q4, on the Q4 call, so February 16. We talked about some products cost increases in excess of retail price increases. So that's specific to oil. And we also talked about the fact that we in some cases, were paying some alternative supply costs, right to be able to make sure we had product availability at all of our shops, through some pretty significant supply chain challenges. Those challenges persisted in Q1, but not to the same degree that we saw in Q4. So of the 200 basis points of contraction year-over-year, I would say about 50% of that was related to oil costs. And that's about half of the impact that we experienced in Q4. So it is getting better, but it does still persist. The other half of that pressure year-over-year has to do frankly with being able to have a rally or a Take five convention this year that we couldn't frankly have last year as a result of COVID. That's a good thing, right? We're able to get back in front of our franchisees back in front of them to motivate and to celebrate together and to make sure that we're all aligned in terms of what the priorities are for the brand and the franchise going forward. So there's some incremental SG&A as a result of that. So that's what you're seeing in the maintenance segments specifically, earlier in the call. We talked about Carwash you didn't ask me about that, but as we get to this company overall margin, Carwash margin was up year-over-year, predominantly because of great flow through on the Carwash international business as a result of some dust storms that allowed them to really leverage fixed expenses. So all of that -- those are really the two primary drivers, they're the biggest contributors to company margin. So, company EBITDA margins in the quarter were 25%. That's basically the same rate that we ended full-year 2021 and we expect 2022 to be flat to that 25% rate. So we're probably, in all honesty a little bit ahead in Q1 because of that fact to this factor but obviously on the right trajectory and feel good about where 2022 is trending and again updating guidance in another 90 days.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst

Thank you.

Tiffany Mason

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Chris O’Cull with Stiefel. Your line is open. Chris O’Cull: Thank you. I had a follow-up question about the rising interest rate environment. And Jonathan or Tiffany, I'm wondering if there's any risk that we are nearing a point where higher rates make the returns less attractive for Take 5 franchisees?

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Chris, the answer is "no." We are growing that Quick Lube franchise pipeline, weekly. As I mentioned in my comments, existing franchisees are coming back for expanded or new territory agreements. We're seeing zero impact to rising interest rates in terms of franchisee interest in expanding that business. Quite frankly, we're seeing accelerated performance from our franchisees as they open new doors. The return profile is phenomenal on that business. So, that's resulting in even more incremental demand. So, it is having zero impact in terms of franchisee demand or ability to open new stores. Chris O’Cull: Good to hear. And then a question on the Car Wash segment. As more platforms have entered the car wash space as consolidators, how has your acquisition strategy or the maybe the profile or targets change with that increased competition?

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Yes, it's pretty simple. Chris, we're not going to pay ridiculously high multiples for mediocre assets or maybe that's the basic comment, right. There is a lot of institutional capital has flowed into this space. People need to pay I think exorbitant multiples to create initial entry points or platform. We have a massive platform globally, a massive platform in the United States with about 350 locations. So, we don't have to buy a platform because we have arguably one of the biggest platforms already. So, we can be very laser-focused and surgical on buying smaller assets that fit our needs both geographically and other and pay the right multiples that are highly accretive from day one. So, I think that this institutional capital flow will continue for some time. I think its folks are having to pay multiples that just make no sense, we don't have to do it because we're in great shape. And then secondly, we have developed a Greenfield pipeline for this business in incredibly short timeframe. We bought this business 18 months ago. We will open between 40 and 50 Greenfield locations this year, Chris. Right, that's within 18 months of buying this business. The Greenfield returns are even better than the M&A returns. And then as I mentioned, our pipeline for Greenfield growth is expanding pretty rapidly and we feel very confident about being able to open significantly more Greenfield units than 40 to 50 in 2023. So, people need to do what they need to do but because of our position, our size, our scale, our experience, we don't need to pay those ridiculous multiples. Chris O’Cull: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Karen Short with Barclays. Your line is open.

Karen Short

Analyst

Hi, thanks very much. Apologies for a little bit of background noise. But I wanted to just ask a couple questions. One is, can you actually give us provide us with inflation in the quarter and the way your inflation expectations are in the quarter to date? And then I have one other question -- sorry, in the year for the full-year inflation.

Tiffany Mason

Management

Hey, Karen. So, in the quarter itself, so if we think about Q1 and we look at Q1 year-over-year, we saw within our company owned businesses, double -- approaching double-digit cost inflation year-over-year predominantly when you think about oil and wages. That's probably the highest if you're sort of tracking quarters, each quarter and our commentary over the last few quarters that's probably the highest we've seen so far just because it's been sort of an upward trajectory. I think, certainly this has been a peak inflationary cycle because obviously we were battling supply chain challenges and inflation last year but the heightened challenges with the situation in Ukraine has certainly brought everything to a head. I don't know that we have a crystal ball for the balance of the year but we certainly think that at least for the time being we're going to continue to operate in this current environment. But as you've heard today, we're navigating it to the best of our ability and aren't giving up any new car countering the opportunity to drive ticket as a result.

Karen Short

Analyst

Okay, thanks. And then my second question is just thinking about VMT, you made a comment that VMT expectations for '22 are still expected to be up. It looks like so far they're obviously down at least for January and February of this year. But my question is, when you think about the puts and takes on travel specifically airline versus driving, like is there a way to think about at what point the customers or consumers' indifferent because obviously airline cost are going up and so are gas prices. So, how do you think about the possibility that VMT is actually down for the year versus M&A you said 6% on your original call or your perky call but it seems like that would be a high estimate.

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Karen, I'll answer this. Good morning. I think Tiffany mentioned that VMT would still be up for the year, she didn't actually mention a percentage, right. So, we still think it's going to be positive for the year. In terms of a family of four people looking to do a summer vacation and if you think of a round trip in a car 300 miles or 400 miles, the incremental cost of that trip can be $100 plus, something like that when you think about the incremental cost of gas. When you look at that family of four getting on an airplane, if anyone's traveled recently, they know that airplane travel is almost double the cost of what it was pre-pandemic, not to mention the absolute miserable experience of traveling through the airports today. So, we see in our data that there were strong demand as Tiffany mentioned for vehicle travel this summer and we feel very good about the consumers will continue to drive throughout the summer and for vacation. So, can't tell you exactly what they're going to do but I think the calculus is pretty clear when you do some of the basic math.

Karen Short

Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our final question is from Peter Keith, with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Peter Keith

Analyst

Hey, good morning and nice results, everyone. I wanted to ask about your digital marketing efforts. Jonathan, I know I asked you about this last quarter and you've commented there'll be more details on the data and digital unlock to come. But my specific question is just around the maintenance segment. You've talked about digital marketing working very well with maintenance. The comp there is spectacular but you're not mentioning with Car Wash. That seems like a much more logical option but why aren't the digital marketing efforts working in Car Wash to-date?

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Well, I think you're inferring they're not working, Peter, I never said they're not working. Look, I tell you what, we've got this massive growth in unique customers. I think we're growing unique customers that almost a million new customers a quarter. I think we're up to 22 plus million new unique customers in our sort of data lake. As we build out the Car Wash network as we think about the Car Wash rebranding exercise, we are very actively sort of cross promoting our brands with exist with customers of Take 5 Quick Lube and inviting them to Take 5 Car Wash or Car Wash business. So, I think we're just a bit earlier in the Car Wash journey when it comes to the digital and data unlock. We're very pleased with the progress we're making. And so, I don't think it's not working, I think it's just a couple of quarters or a couple of years behind what we've been doing at the Quick Lube space. So, we still feel incredibly bullish about the unmodelled upside when it comes to that core asset that literally none of our competitors have in this space. So, I'll commit to you Peter, that we'll certainly spend more time and on some of the numbers and behind-the-scenes improvements when we talk to you after Q2 results.

Peter Keith

Analyst

Okay, I look forward to that. Second question, maybe more for Tiffany. I know last quarter you talked about the comp dynamics by segment should be in a pretty tight band, kind of plus or minus 200 basis points. It really wide band obviously with Q1 and now you've got more inflationary pressures. Fair to assume that it's no longer going to be so tight and maybe anywhere, would you expect our performance by particular segments?

Tiffany Mason

Management

So Peter, I think it's a fair question. I have no change to my thesis today, right. We're going to provide updated guidance in 90 days. I think Q1 was stronger than what our internal plan was, we knew Q1 was going to be the outsides competent easiest to compare versus the prior year. So, I don't know that I would take Q1 as the benchmark or the blueprint for the way that the segments are going to shake out for the balance of the year but more to come in 90 days.

Peter Keith

Analyst

Okay, now fair enough. Thanks a lot, good luck.

Tiffany Mason

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

I'll now turn the call back over to Mr. Fitzpatrick.

Jonathan Fitzpatrick

Management

Yes. Thanks, all. I appreciate all the questions. We're delighted with the Q1 results. And just to reiterate, we will give full-year updated guidance at the in connection with the Q2 earnings and we're very pleased with the momentum of the business. So, thank you all, we'll speak to you all soon.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.