Josh Charlesworth
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. You may proceed with your question
Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone. I'll start by echoing Mike's comments on how pleased we are with the strong results in 2021, and on the progress we've made on our strategic initiatives thanks to the hard work of our Krispy Kremers. In the fourth quarter, net revenue grew 13.8% year-over-year to $371 million or 21.5% growth, excluding the impact of an additional 53rd week in 2020. For the full year, net revenue grew 23.4% to $1.38 billion. We saw a strong growth across the world in 2021, in our doughnut and cookie shops through e-commerce, and most of all from fresh daily doughnut deliveries to local grocery and convenience stores. Organic revenue for the fourth quarter grew a robust 13.9% or 19.6%, excluding the legacy wholesale exit we made in 2020. Although we saw Omicron disrupt operations in December, the impact on our revenue was not significant, with demand remaining strong across all our sales channels. For the full year, organic revenue grew 12.5% or 13.7% on a two-year stack basis. Excluding the legacy wholesale exit, organic revenue for the full year grew 21.4%. Our strong performance during the quarter and the year was driven by the strength of our capital efficient hub and spoke model. In the fourth quarter, we increased global points of access by 386 to 10,427. For the full year, this means that we increased points of access by more than 2,000. Going forward, we expect to add at least 10% more points of access each year, primarily through adding low cost deliver fresh daily doughs. These fresh doughnut merchandising units in grocery and convenience stores typically cost only $2,000 to $10,000 per dough and are enabling us to drive economies of scale from our 411 local production hubs around the world, most of which are experiential Hot Light Theater shops. In the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA increased 14.4% to $47.7 million, which is above our expectations. Hub and spoke efficiencies and price increases in September and November, more than offset labor and commodity cost increases, as well as increased corporate overhead driven by public company costs and short-term incentive compensation. Adjusted EBITDA margins in the quarter rose 10 basis points to 12.9%. We believe that recent pricing actions will allow us to offset inflation, and we will continue to review pricing if inflation increases more than expected. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA increased 29.2% to $187.9 million with margins increasing 60 basis points to 13.6%. As a reminder, we expect to achieve 15% company-wide margins in 2023. In the fourth quarter, GAAP net income was $4.3 million or $0.01 diluted EPS compared to a GAAP net loss of $24.8 million or negative $0.21 diluted EPS in the same period a year ago. Adjusted net income for the quarter was $16 million, a 17% year-over-year increase. Adjusted diluted EPS in the fourth quarter was $0.08, a decline of 20% due to the increased share count from the IPO. Weighted average diluted shares outstanding for the quarter were $169 million. For the full year, GAAP net loss declined 76% to $14.8 million, which was impacted by $15 million of IPO cost during the year. Adjusted diluted EPS for 2021 was $0.37, an increase of 23% compared to 2020. We were cash positive again in the fourth quarter, delivering $6.4 million free cash flow, helping us to finish the year with a net debt leverage of 3.6 times, which is a reduction versus the prior quarter. In the U.S. and Canada segment, total revenues in the fourth quarter increased 10.5% to $249 million, or 18.8% excluding the impact of the additional 53rd week. Organic growth in the fourth quarter increased 9.1% or 17.3%, excluding the exit of our legacy wholesale business. We saw all our product lines and sales channels performed well in the quarter. And our September and November price increases proved successful, demonstrating the strength of our fresh daily doughnut business. Organic growth was also a robust 17.3% on a two year stack basis for the quarter. For the full year, total revenues grew 18.6% in the U.S and Canada, to $928 million with 5.5% organic growth or 18.3% organic growth excluding the exit of our legacy wholesale business. Organic growth two year stack, was 15.4%. And e-commerce revenue for 2021 was $134 million, an increase of 15% compared to 2020. Adjusted EBITDA for the U.S and Canada in the fourth quarter increased 42% to $31.8 million, with margins expanding 290 basis points to 12.8%. The increase in margins, was driven by strong revenue growth in our fresh doughnut business. Especially sales per DFD door, with pricing offsetting wage and commodity inflation. In November, I highlighted that U.S. cities that have fully implemented the change from legacy wholesale to deliver fresh daily are seeing a 300 to 400 basis points benefit to margins, which continued in the fourth quarter. This is due to the higher price points achieved with these fresh daily doughnuts and the efficiency benefits of a local delivery model, especially in covering fixed costs back of the production hubs. I gave the example then of the Tampa market, which has seen local EBITDA margins grow to over 20%. This time, I will showcase the Albuquerque market, which has increased revenue per hub by 29% year-over-year to $5.7 million, driven by a 350% increase in DFD revenue year-over-year. This has led to a 700 basis point increase in local EBITDA margins, which were over 20% in the fourth quarter. Both of these cities are former franchisee markets, which we previously acquired on a now showing how implementing the hub and spoke model proven in international markets also works in the U.S. The success there, and the strategy in other U.S. cities, explains our high level of confidence in the U.S. and Canada segment going forward. And our ability to achieve our goal of 15% adjusted - EBITDA margin for the segment within three years. Revenue per hub in the U.S and Canada, increased to $4.0 million in the fourth quarter, compared to $3.8 million in the previous quarter and $3.5 million a year ago. The biggest driver at the fourth-quarter growth was a 55% year-over-year increase in sales per DFD door, which averaged more than $600 per door per week for the first time. Points of access in the U.S. and Canada increased by more than 1000 in 2021 to 5,723, driven by DFD door expansion. We expect to add about 150 fresh points of access in the first quarter of 2022 in the U.S. and 500 for the full year as we expand our program in both existing and new cities. Hubs and spokes in the U.S. and Canada increased by five during the fourth quarter to 126. One milestone this quarter came from our digital Insomnia Cookies business, which now for the first time has adjusted EBITDA margins on par with our U.S. doughnut business. We continue to see tremendous potential for this rapidly growing brand. We also saw good progress on profitability in our startup business, branded sweet treats, in the fourth quarter whereas more than doubled our production capacity this year, which in turn has helped us to reduce our cost per unit. While branded sweet treats are not yet profitable in the fourth quarter, the losses reduced considerably, and we remain on track to be profitable by the middle of 2022 as demand continues to grow. Net revenue in our international segment, which consists of our equity markets in the UK, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico grew 26% in the fourth quarter to $90 million, while organic revenue grew 31%. Organic revenue growth on a two-year stack basis was 22%. For the full-year net revenue grew 45% to $333 million, while organic revenue grew 37% or 19% on a two-year stack basis. International adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter grew 25% to $20.7 million on margins of 23%, in line with the prior year. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA grew 83% to $81 million, driven by the strong performance of our omni-channel model across all of our international markets. Adjusted EBITDA margins for the year expanded 510 basis points to 24.5%, driven by the efficiencies gained from the strong performance of our hub and spoke model. International sales per hub increased from $6.4 million in 2020 to $9.1 million in 2021. Leveraging the 36 existing hubs, to deliver doughnuts to more fresh points of access. 518 points of access more for the year and 82 more for the quarter. Revenue per DFD door, was over $1,000 which explains the high levels of profitability in our international segment. Turning now to our market development segment, which is made up of our franchise business and equity owned Japan market. Total revenues in the fourth quarter grew 9.9% to $31.4 million, while organic revenue grew 8.8%. Strong performance in Japan, and our franchise markets was partially offset by franchise acquisitions. For the year, market development revenue increased 12.7% to $123 million, while organic revenue for the year grew 11%. Adjusted EBITDA in the full quarter for market development was flat at $11 million, but grew 4.5% for the year to $41 million. We continue to be very optimistic about our growth potential, which is reflected in our 2022 outlook. For 2022, we expect revenue growth between 11% and 13%, and organic growth between 10% and 12%, which is above our long-term guidance of nine to 11%. We expect all three reporting segments to contribute to this growth. And as a reminder, we will no longer be lapping the exit of our legacy wholesale business in 2020. We plan to have more than 1,000 points of access in 2022, mostly DFD doors. We expect adjusted - EBITDA to grow faster than sales in 2022. Up 12 to 16% to between $210 and $219 million with margin expansion in both the U.S. and Canada, and international segments. We anticipate an income tax rate between 23% and 25%, and adjusted net income diluted a $65 to $69 million, an increase of 18% to 24%. We expect adjusted diluted EPS of 38 to $0.41. When comparing EPS in 2022 to last year, it is important to remember that will be impacted by share count dilution from the IPO in the first half of the year. Excluding that impact, adjusted EPS growth will be similar to the adjusted net income diluted growth of 18% to 24%. While we do not provide quarterly guidance, in general, earnings growth will accelerate through the year, as the benefits of our hub and spoke model continued to come through. COVID disruption subsides, full [Indiscernible] traffic in New York increases, the profitability of branded sweet treats improves, and we continue to absorb inflation through pricing as needed. In January, we have seen some operational disruption from Omicron and a higher number of winter weather events than usual, which will only modestly dampen our Q1 results. Demand remains high. For example, we saw good growth for Valentine's Day so I do not believe these to be significant impacts for the full year. In 2021, we spent 8.6% of revenue on capital expenditures; in 2022, that will drop below 8% to around $115 million to $120 million. Our 2022 CapEx includes investing in approximately 15 production hubs, mostly experiential Hot Light shops, as well as more than 30 Insomnia Cookie locations. Every time, we expect CapEx as a percentage of revenue to decline to 6% or below. In 2022, we'll continue to pay down debt and expect to end the year below three times leverage, with a long-term goal of approximately two times. As our balance sheet improves, our EBITDA increases, and our CapEx as a percentage of revenue declines, we expect our free cash flow conversion to also improve from approximately 10% in 2021 to more than 20% in 2022, and over time, grow to 50%. Lastly, we continue to remain confident in our long-term growth algorithm of 9% to 11% annual organic revenue growth, 12% to 14% annual adjusted EBITDA growth, and 18% to 22% annual adjusted diluted net income growth. Operator, we can open the call up to Q&A now, please.