Lee Schram
Analyst · CJS Securities. Your line is now open
Thank you, Keith. I will continue my comments with a recap of the three-year strategic direction outlined on our last earnings call, and then highlight our progress in each of our segments focusing on the three primary MOS key growth areas to provide a perspective of on how we progressed in the first quarter and outline what we expect to accomplish during the balance of the year. For 2018, we expect to deliver continued growth in MOS revenue and a ninth consecutive year of total revenue growth. If achieved, 2018 will mark the first time in the history of Deluxe that our revenue exceeds $2 billion. Additionally, 2018 represents the first year of our three-year goal through 2020 to pivot for faster organic growth and moderately more aggressive acquisitive growth. While accelerating progress towards our three-year strategic goals and growing EBITDA there may be an impact to operating income and GAAP EPS depending on the mix of acquisition growth, including acquisition valuations performance and synergies, and the organic performance of MOS. There is a cost to transform or quickly. So, we may experience small near-term GAAP EPS dilution in 2019 and 2020, but we expect immediate cash flow and cash EPS accretion. We are committed to delivering a plan that we believe enhances shareholder value, while we continue to pivot for faster organic and moderately more aggressive acquisitive revenue growth. We expect to deliver slight organic growth in 2018 and approximately 3% organic growth in both 2019 and 2020. We are also targeting to increase our overall MOS to total company revenue mix to be approximately 45% this year growing to approximately 60% by year-end 2020. To achieve the 60% MOS mix level, we expect to drive more organic growth and make larger investments, principally in data driven marketing and Treasury management solutions, and to optimize web services. We have worked hard to give us some expected sustained core check runway with all large financial institution contracts now extended through at least 2020. And we have about 25% fewer bank contracts up for renewal in 2018, compared to 2017. And we have more competitive opportunities that are coming due. In 2018 in marketing solutions and other services, we expect revenue to be approximately $910 million to $925 million, up from $756 million in 2017, with an expected 20% to 22% growth rate, including 4% to 7% organic growth with about $90 million in new tuck-in acquisitions and $45 million in carryover acquisitions, partly offset by $15 million in other noncomparable items. The LogoMix and treasury management acquisition referred to earlier are expected to generate $16 million and $46 million of revenue respectively or $62 million in total for 2018. These two acquisitions are expected to deliver about two-thirds of the $19 million new acquisition revenue. So, we have made good progress thus far, but still have work to do to deliver the remaining $28 million of new acquisition revenue to reach our outlook. The 4% to 7% organic growth is driven by data driven marketing expected organic growth of 11% to 16% and treasury management solutions expected organic growth of 9% to 12% with all three of the other categories expected to grow low single digits. As Keith highlighted, the delayed timing of the treasury management acquisition closed drove some of the MOS revenue reduction at the eye high-end of our outlook, but the primary driver of the reduction was in data driven marketing. We continue to be bullish in this space and are forecasting 11% to 16% organic growth, which is higher than the market growth rate of 9% to 13%. Our focus is on growing existing FI’s through cross-sell and program expansion, acquiring new FI’s an expanding pay for performance. Here is some encouraging color on our accelerating pace of new customers and expanding pay for performance. For all of 2017, we added seven new FMCG customers. So far in 2018, we have added five new FMCG customers. For all of 2017, we only have one pay for performance customer. But have added four more customers in 2018. In spite of these very positive trends we are lowering data driven marketing revenue as we did not see the expected increase in marketing spend from a combination of tax reform, anticipated regulatory relief, and ascending interest rates. All of which typically improved bank earnings. In addition, while pay for performance is generating demand, the sales process is more complex and elongated. If we achieve the $910 million to $925 million, this performance will translate to a total revenue mix of approximately 45%, up from 38% in 2017, and 33% and 30% the previous two years. We are excited with our progress here, and with a more cooperative economy and even more acquisitions as catalyst, we could potentially grow MOS even faster. Now shifting to our segments, including updates on our key strategic and MOS revenue focus areas. In small business services, Q1 revenue grew approximately 3. As highlighted on our fourth quarter 2017 call, we expect a more favorable economic environment for small businesses in 2018 and saw some signs of this in the first quarter through better performance in small business marketing solutions, which is where more of small businesses discretionary spending occurs. However, the impact of four nor'easter [ph], where we generate approximately 25% of our small business services revenue muted our revenue growth slightly at the high-end of our expectations. Checks, forms, and accessories were slightly below the high end of our expectation, while marketing solutions and web services slightly exceeded our expectations. Our online dealer and major accounts channels grew revenue over the prior year. The NFIB small business optimism index continued to improve throughout January reaching a very strong 108 in February and ending at 105 in March, basically flat to the beginning of the year beginning of the year, but still a strong positive indicator. Clearly there remains strong optimism for the economy with small businesses signaling they expect better market conditions and therefore increased business activity in capital spending. Small business owners overall remain more optimistic right now. However, they want more proof that positive changes will be implemented. As for Tax Reform, we continue to believe that small businesses will benefit by investing savings and increasing the wages they are paying. In summary, if this more optimistic trend continues, this bodes well for us. And we expect SBS revenue growth to increase in 2018 to 4% to 5% from 3.7% last year. Now, to our two focused areas starting with payments and marketing solutions. Here we are focused on core check retention and acquisition and developing incremental retail customer acquisition channels and driving eChecks and eDeposits. We ended the first quarter slightly below our expectations at the high end for checks. Our focus on eChecks and eDeposits continues to be in building out opportunities with financial institutions, medical and insurance payment process processors, accounting services and software providers, and other document management and payment solutions companies. In Q1, we began an initial rollout with the medical payment processor that has expected to further ramp in the second quarter and the balance of the year. In Q2, we also expect to begin two insurance company processor rollouts. In marketing solutions, 2008 growth initiatives include profitably scaling, integrated marketing, on-demand solution offers with a strong focus on the financial advisor and real estate verticals, web to print, retail packaging and promotional products. First quarter marketing solutions revenue was better than expected at the high-end of our previous outlook, driven by the financial advisory real estate and retail specifically hospitality verticals. Our second focus area is web services, where we are targeting an improved customer experience and cross-selling and upselling through our integrated Deluxe marketing suite across all our customers and channels and scaling payroll services, as well as continuing tuck-in capability acquisitions. In Q1, we continue to ramp our cross-sell or do it for me it for me logo customers who became web design customers as well. In operating services, we are focused on scaling payroll services and we continue to evaluate other operational annuity growth solutions. In Q1, payroll services revenue was in-line with our expectations. We are very excited about our recent acquisition of LogoMix, which brings us a highly scalable and robust upsell and cross sell e-commerce do it yourself platform where we have not previously focused, which complements our existing do it for me solution. LogoMix utilizes proprietary artificial intelligence and machine learning technology to deliver highly personalized content, which results in very high customer reactivation rates. We believe we can leverage this technology to further improve our cross-sell and upsell capabilities. Finally, we are focused on continuing to accelerate our brand awareness transformation with a clear linkage to marketing and revenue generating capabilities. In 2018, we are continuing our small business revolution main streak talent makeover. In the first quarter, we announced Alton, Illinois as the 2018 talent [ph] winner and have added Ty Pennington of Extreme Home Makeover fame as a partner. We will be doing a web series, as well as helping small businesses in the final 10 nominated towns with marketing makeovers. We will be linking small business revolution.org to our resource center and deluxe.com as we focus on driving revenue generating capabilities. In financial services, Q1 revenue was flat to last year as growth in MOS was offset by declines in checks. We have two strategic focus areas for 2018. For financial institutions, retail banking, which includes checks and data driven marketing solutions. In the first quarter, we saw the rate of check decline performed at about 7%. Our retention rates remain strong on deals pending in the current quarter. We simplified our processes, while reducing our cost and expense structure. For 2018, we continue to expect check units to decline approximately 7%. We understand it is important for us to maintain low decline rates but given the size of the FS checks business and the growth in MOS, every 1% decline in FS checks now only has about a $2 million annualized impact on revenue. We also implemented a very small price increase at the start of the year. For data driven marketing, our focus in 2018 is on leveraging data and analytics together with marketing services campaign execution to accelerate outsourced campaign targeting and multichannel execution. Additionally, we plan to scale FMCG and leverage opportunities with data banks. Lastly, we will continue to assess and execute acquisitions in this space that give us more digital, data and CRM capabilities. We continue to be excited about the opportunities pay for performance brings us but remain conservative regarding how fast these programs are expected to ramp. The market for data driven marketing spend is expected to grow 9% with digital marketing spend by financial institutions expected to grow at a compound annual growth basis close to 13% through 2020. Q1 revenue for data driven marketing solutions was in-line with our expectations at the high-end of our range. We had two notable wins in the first quarter with top 100 financial institutions, as well as 15 expansion wins with existing customers in the top 100 financial institutions. The second FS strategic focus area is scaling treasury management solutions with our largest opportunity in managing payment acceptance and risk irrespective of payment type. Reconciling and matching payments, resolving exceptions, and then posting payments to keep receivables current. This receivables management work of automating and outsourcing workflow innovation and solutions for efficiency and effectiveness fits right in our sweet spot. Our focus in Treasury management solutions in 2018 is on profitably scaling revenue and integrating acquisitions already completed, plus assessing and executing acquisitions with a focus on the payment and remittance processing and cash applications basis within the treasury management overall ecosystem. In Q1, treasury management solutions was slightly better than our expectations. We had four notable wins in the first quarter with top 100 financial institutions, as well as five cross-sell wins with existing customers. In Direct Checks, revenue finished right in-line with our expectations. We continue to look for opportunities to provide accessories and other check-related products and services to our consumers, as well as work on several initiatives to create an integrated and efficient direct-to-consumer check experience. We continue to see a ramp in revenue enhancement synergies through our call center scripting and upsell capabilities, as well as synergistic cost and expense reductions. For 2018, we expect direct checks revenue to decline around 11%, driven by continued declines in consumer usage and lower reorders from our decision in prior years to eliminate marketing expenditures that no longer met our return on investment criteria. We anticipate that MOS revenue, which is primarily fraud and security offers for this segment to be about 10% of Direct Checks revenue. We expect to reduce manufacturing costs and SG&A in the segment and continue to deliver operating margins in the low 30% range, while generating strong operating cash flow. As we exit the first quarter on the heels of a very strong quarterly performance, we continue to make tremendous progress transforming Deluxe, and we believe we can pivot both for even faster organic and moderately more aggressive acquisitive growth. There are signals the economy may be strengthening, but we remain prudently cautious in our expectations for a stronger economy. We firmly believe this continues to be the right time to increase investments in people, technology, processes, products and services to accelerate sustainable revenue growth, while improving profitability and operating cash flow. We have developed a strong MOS platform for long-term growth with high recurring revenue streams and strong adjusted EBITDA margins as we continue to transform Deluxe to more of a growth services provider from primarily a check printer thereby changing our product mix and resulting stock price multiple. And now, Takia will open the line for Ed, Keith, and I to take any questions.