Lee Schram
Analyst · Jamie Clement from Macquarie
Thank you, Keith. I'll continue my comments with a quick reminder of our strategic focus areas, an update on MOS revenue and then highlight progress in each of our 3 segments using our 4 strategic focus areas for a perspective on how we progressed in the first quarter and then what we expect to accomplish during the balance of 2017. In 2017, our primary focus continues to be profitable revenue growth for an eighth consecutive year and increasing the mix of marketing solutions and other services revenues. We are sharpening our focus to 4 strategic focus areas for 2017, including 2 each for Financial Services and Small Business Services, that we will provide regular updates on through the balance of 2017. I will review each of the 4 focus areas in a few minutes during the segment updates. Here is an update on our 5 subcategories framework for marketing solutions and other services. We ended the quarter about $10 million better than the top end of our previous outlook, driven primarily by the conversion of FMCG's cash basis accounting to GAAP accounting. As a reminder from our fourth quarter 2016 call, we are now providing a directional annual EBITDA margin profile in total and for each of the 5 MOS categories and adding an annual recurring revenue perspective. Note that we want to be cautious, given the extremely competitive landscape, in not providing a more precise EBITDA margin profile. But we want investors to understand that as our MOS business approaches 40% of total revenue that our MOS EBITDA margins are also now approaching our overall company average. We estimate that approximately 70% of the MOS revenue is recurring, with some of the MOS categories recurring at a rate closer to 95%. In many MOS products and services, we have multiyear customer contracts similar to our FI check contracts, annual maintenance services contracts, recurring monthly fees and long-standing customer relationships. Also note that we expect MOS to total company revenue to be approximately 38% this year, including over 16% of total company revenue in the even higher multiple fintech space. First, small business marketing solutions is expected to represent approximately 34% in 2017, with expected growth of approximately 3% to 5% and EBITDA margins well below our overall average. Key 2017 growth initiatives include profitably scaling, integrated marketing on-demand solution offers, web to print, retail packaging and promotional products. Q1 revenue was slightly better than our expectations. The second category, web services, which includes logo and web design, web hosting, SEM, SEO, e-mail marketing, social and payroll services, is expected to represent approximately 18% in 2017, with expected growth rates of 15% to 19%, and EBITDA margins moderately below our overall average. Key 2017 growth initiatives include scaling our integrated Deluxe Marketing Suite across all customers and channels, and scaling web and payroll services as well as continuing tuck-in capability acquisitions. Q1 revenues met our expectations. The third category, data-driven marketing solutions, is expected to represent approximately 19% in 2017, with expected triple-digit growth rates and expected EBITDA margin slightly above the overall average. Key focus areas for growth in this category includes scaling direct marketing analytic print services, Datamyx and FMCG. Again, driven by FMCG timing, Q1 revenue was well above our expectations. The increase in our outlook range was primarily driven by direct marketing analytic print services. The fourth category, treasury management solutions, is expected to represent approximately 15% in 2017, with an expected 24% to 27% growth rate, and expected EBITDA margins slightly below our overall average. Q1 revenue was slightly better than our expectations. The decrease in our outlook range was driven by some lengthening of sales and contracting cycles, as FIs are spending more time assessing on-premise to full outsourcing. As well as we have seen some shift from on-premise onetime license revenue to more recurring outsource revenue models, which are preferred, but in the short term, it can lead to less revenue. The fifth category, fraud, security, risk management and operational services, is expected to represent approximately 14% in 2017. With expected declines of around 10% driven by Deluxe Rewards revenue reductions, as highlighted earlier, and EBITDA margins well above our overall average. Key focus areas in this category, in addition to our standard fraud and security offerings, include scaling profitability, strategic sourcing, eChecks, Deluxe Rewards and SwitchAgent. Q1 revenue met our expectations. We expect marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately $735 million to $755 million in 2017, up from $617 million in 2016, with an expected 19% to 22% growth rate. If achieved, this performance would translate to a total revenue mix of 38% of revenue, and up from 33% in 2016 and 30% and 26% the previous 2 years. We continue to target increasing MOS as a percent of total company revenue to approximately 40% in 2018, with checks expected to represent approximately 40% of revenue and forms and accessories expected to represent approximately 20% of revenue. Now shifting to our segments. In Small Business Services, as expected, we did not see any notable improvements as the economic climate for small businesses remained sluggish, in spite of improved optimism. However, revenue grew 6%. Checks were above our expectations, while forms and accessories were below our expectations. Average order value and conversion rates increased. Our online major accounts, Canada and dealer channels grew revenue over the prior year. We also saw growth in small business marketing solutions and web and payroll services. We continue to closely monitor the small business market. Optimism indices that increased dramatically in December, closing at 106, remained high throughout the quarter, finishing at 105 in March. Clearly, there is a boom in optimism for the economy following the new President. Small businesses are signaling that they expect better market conditions and, therefore, increased business activity and capital spending. Sales expectations looking out 3 months did soften a bit. So although small business owners are more optimistic right now, they want to start seeing some proof that positive changes will come. Clearly, if this more optimistic trend continues, this bodes well for us. However, in summary, although current optimism indices indicate accelerating growing optimism for small business owners, it is important we see more sustainable trends and then the results manifest in the small business marketplace. For Small Business Services, our 2 focus areas are payments and marketing solutions and web services. First, for payments and marketing solutions, we are focused on core check retention and acquisition and developing incremental retail customer acquisition channels. We, again, ended the first quarter slightly better than our expectations for checks. We also made progress in profitably scaling integrated marketing on-demand solution offers with first quarter revenues slightly better than our expectations. In addition, we closed two marketing solution opportunities, 1 with a large real estate company and the other with a large financial services company. Revenue here with roll out and ramp over the balance of this year. Finally, we are focused on scaling eChecks, eDeposit and other payment and workflow solutions, such as variable check printing and remotely created checks. For eChecks, we continue to look to build out opportunities with financial institutions, medical and insurance payment processors, accounting services and software providers and other document management and payment solution companies. In the first quarter, we reached agreement with a company in the medical and insurance payment processing space on a rollout that will start in the second half of 2017. Our second focus area is web services, with a focus on digital marketing services through improved customer experience and cross-sell; including use of our integrated Deluxe Marketing Suite across all customers and channels, while continuing to build out partnership and acquisition web services opportunities. In Q1, we also saw a continued strong cross-sell ramp in logo customers, who became web design customers as well. With all marketing services offers now being fulfilled through our Deluxe Marketing Suite. In operating services, we are focused on scaling payroll services and continuing to evaluate "early-in business" and other operational annuity growth solutions. In Q1, Payce Payroll revenue and profitability was roughly in line with our expectations. Finally, we are focused on continuing to accelerate our brand awareness transformation with a clear linkage to marketing and revenue-generating capabilities. In 2017, we are continuing our small business revolution focus and partnership with Robert Herjavec from Shark Tank as well as our Main Street town makeover. In Q1, the public selected Bristol Borough, Pennsylvania as the winning town. And we have already completed the selection process of which small businesses specifically we will work with there. We will be capturing all the marketing makeover work we're doing in a web series. As well as during Small Business Week next week, we will be returning to Wabash, Indiana to see the progress in the businesses from our first makeover and to share more marketing services capabilities. We are also linking clicks to smallbusinessrevolution.org to our resource center and then to deluxe.com as we start to focus on driving revenue-generating capabilities. In Financial Services, we have 2 strategic focus areas for 2017. First, retail banking, which includes checks and data-driven marketing solutions. In the first quarter, we saw the rate of decline of checks perform a little better than we expected at less than 4%. For 2017, we expect check units to be in a decline range of 5% to 6%, declining at a faster rate as the year progresses, and overall slightly worse than 2016 decline rates. We understand it is important for us to maintain low decline rates, but given the size of the FS checks business now and the growth in MOS, every 1% decline in FS checks now only has about a $2 million annualized impact on revenue. Our retention rates remained strong on deals pending in the current quarter. We simplified our processes and took complexity out of the business, while reducing our cost and expense structure. We have now extended all our large contracts to at least the end of 2017. And we are running at a little better pace than the first quarter of 2016 on renewing bank contracts. And we have more competitive opportunities coming up. We also implemented a small price increase at the start of this year. Today, we are providing at least 1 of our key FS solutions to 95 of the top 100 U.S. banks. The market for data-driven marketing spend is expected to grow 9%, with digital marketing spend by financial institutions expected to grow on a CAGR basis close to 13% through 2020. We are focused here on selectively sourcing value-add data, leveraging it with smart analytics purpose-built solutions to target specific customer segments for specific product offerings with multichannel capability. Think of it as just the right amount of data and analytics to be a difference maker for our customers. We believe there is no other marketing services provider bringing this deep and sole focus to the financial services market right now. Data-driven marketing solutions performed well in the quarter driven by FMCG. Our focus in 2017 is on leveraging Datamyx data and analytics, together with marketing services campaign execution to accelerate outsourced campaign targeting and multichannel execution as well as scaling FMCG and leveraging synergistic opportunities with Datamyx. With the addition of FMCG, we are very excited about the data-driven marketing solution space and continue prospects to grow revenue. The second FS strategic focus area is commercial banking, and includes scaling treasury management solutions. In treasury management solutions, our largest opportunity is in managing payment acceptance and risk irrespective of payment type, reconciling and matching payments, resolving exceptions and then posting payments to keep receivables current. This receivables management work of automating and outsourcing workflow innovation and solutions for efficiency and effectiveness fits right in our sweet spot. In Q1, treasury management solutions revenue was approximately $23 million and slightly better than our expectations. On April 4, we have also announced the close of our acquisition of RDM, which we indicated was already in our previous outlook for approximately $19 million in revenue for the year. We're excited about RDM, as their Remote Deposit Capture capability further enhances our robust suite of best-in-class treasury management solutions, strengthens our value proposition and improves our market position. Our focus on treasury management solutions in 2017 is on profitably scaling revenue and integrating acquisitions already completed, plus assessing and executing tuck-in acquisitions. For 2017, we expect marketing solutions and other services revenues to be approximately 55% of total FS revenue, with the following at the midpoint of the FS revenue range, data-driven marketing solutions, including Datamyx and FMCG, approximately $137 million; treasury management solutions, including WAUSAU, FISC, DSS and RDM approximately $150 million; and fraud, security and risk management and operational services, approximately $62 million. In Direct Checks, revenue finished slightly better than our expectations. We continue to look for opportunities to provide accessories and other check-related products and services to our consumers as well as work on a number of initiatives to create an integrated best-in-class direct-to-consumer check experience. We continued to see a ramp in revenue enhancement synergies through our call center scripting and upsell capabilities as well as synergistic cost and expense reductions. For 2017, we expect Direct Checks revenue to decline in the 9% range, driven by continued declines in consumer usage in a sluggish economy, and the lack of carryover reorders from our earlier decision to eliminate marketing expenditures that no longer met our return on investment criteria. We anticipate that marketing solutions and other services revenue, which is primarily fraud and security offers for this segment, to be about 10% of Direct Checks revenue. We expect to reduce our manufacturing cost and SG&A in this segment and continue delivering operating margins in the low to mid-30% range, while generating strong operating cash flow. As we exit the first quarter on the heels of a very strong quarterly performance and a continued sluggish economy, we have made tremendous strides in transforming Deluxe. But we still have many opportunities ahead of us in 2017. We believe we are well positioned in 2017 for our eighth consecutive year of revenue growth. Despite the sluggish economy, our financial discipline has enabled us to invest in people, technology, products, services and our brands in order to position ourselves for sustainable revenue growth, while continuing to improve profitability and operating cash flow. Our technologies and sales channels are stronger. Our digital technology services offer is more mature; our infrastructure, better; and our management talent is deeper and aligned to grow revenue. We have developed a strong MOS platform for long-term growth with high recurring revenue streams and improving adjusted EBITDA margins as we continue to transform Deluxe to more of a growth services provider from primarily a check printer, thereby changing our product mix and resulting stock price multiple. Now Andrew will open the line for questions now.