Tony Lauritzen
Analyst · Jefferies. Please ask your question
Thank you, Michael. Moving on to Slide 8. Our fleet count accounts six type specification and versatile LNG carriers with an average age of about eight years in an industry where expected useful lifetimes 35 years. Our fleet is able to operate across the globe including ice-bound areas and under the harshest weather conditions. These high vessel specifications are appreciated by global energy companies and we have developed a diversified customer base with oil majors and traders. Our fleet has in the past been employed by companies like Shell, Qatargas, RasGas, Marubeni, Woodside, Kogas and several other major oil and gas companies. Today we have long-term contracts with Gazprom, Equinor formally known as Statoil, and Yamal Energy, which collaborated joint venture between Total, CNPC, Novatek and Silk Road Fund. Our contracted backlog is about $1.44 billion and our average remaining charter period is about 10.1 years, which compares favorably versus our appears. Moving on to Slide 9. Our strategy is to enter into long-term contracts that provide cash flow visibility to stakeholders and allows us to effectively eliminate market volatility and the cyclicality of the shipping industry. Since inception, the partnership’s average remaining term of contracts increased from the books from approximately 4.5 years to more than 10 years. We believe that the excellent characteristics of our fleet have been instrumental in helping us secure long-term contracts and cash flow visibility. Our long-term contracts with Gazprom, Equinor, Yamal and LNG served well-established LNG export projects in harsh weather and icebound areas. Our clients have entered into long-term offtake agreements with LNG reserves and our vessels are vital to their efforts to monetize their production of natural gas. On 13th of July, 2018, the Clean Energy delivered into her approximately eight year contract with Gazprom after serving the short-term and medium-term markets since 3rd of April 2017. The Yenisei River completed her five year charter with Gazprom on 21st July 2018 against the notional payment from Gazprom to the partnership reflecting the vessels positioning to Singapore, where the vessels will undergo her five-year special survey, which is expected to commence on 29 July and complete in mid-August 2018. After completion of the special service, she is expected to be employed on the short-term markets until she commence her 15-year contract with Yamal LNG. We believe the Yamal LNG project is progressing very well, and on July 1, 2018, Yamal narrowed down the delivery windows for Yenisei River and the Lena River to the earliest possible as allowed by their respective 15-year contracts. It is expected that the Yenisei River will commence her Yamal LNG contract between January 1 and March 3, 2019. The exact date that she will be delivered to Yamal within this window is now in our choice. The Lena River is on charter to Gazprom until late September mid-October 2018 and will thereafter perform for special survey dry docking. She has been employed on a multi-month contract with a large gas producer for the period commencing after the completion of her special survey until her expected delivery into her 15-year contract with Yamal LNG. It is expected that Lena River will commence her contract with Yamal LNG between July 1, 2019 and December 2019. Our fleet is 85% contracted in 2018, 99% in 2019 and 100% in 2020, assuming that the Yenisei and the Lena River will enter their long-term charters at the earliest date in their delivery windows. We are now actively pursuing opportunities for the availability that we have on the Yenisei River, which is supported by a relatively active LNG shipping market. Moving on to Slide 10. Our sponsored Dynagas Holding owns a fleet of 9 energy carriers that are all on long-term contract. Four of those LNG carriers are of 4 types, which are of similar specifications as the vessels in our fleet. These 4 vessels are all chartered to Yamal for minimum 15 years employment each plus extension options. Prior to the commencement with the Yamal, these vessels are employed on the short-term and medium-term markets. The remaining 5 LNG carriers are up 75% and 49% owned by our sponsor and 25.5% each by Sinotrans and China Energy Shipping, two state-owned Chinese entities. These 5 vessels are chartered in Yamal LNG for between 26 and 28 year contracts each. All vessels on the water and in the order book are fully financed and funded. The 9 vessels have contracts in place amounting to a multi-billion dollar contract backlog. And these optional vessels have dropped candidates to the partnership. Moving on to Slide 11. We have a unique fleet. 5 out of the 6 vessels in our fleet have Ice Class 1 notations. The fleet can handle shipping in conventional open water areas as well as operate in ice-bound and subsea areas. This means that we're able to and have been successful in pursuing business opportunities in two different markets namely conventional LNG shipping and the unique market that required Ice Class LNG carriers. The initial capital expenditures for an Ice Class vessel is somewhat more expensive than conventional carriers. However, the operating cost between our Ice Class type carriers and conventional carriers are very similar. The partnership together with our sponsor has the market share of 82% for vessels with Arc-4 or equivalent to Ice Class notation. And to our knowledge, there are only two other LNG carriers in the world with the equivalent notation, which are chartered out on long-term contracts. We view the ability to trading in ice bound area as an important advantage due to the current and ongoing construction of LNG production terminals within ice-bound areas and in particular in Northern Sea route where Yamal LNG has recently commenced production. We also expect further projects to be developed in that region. We view the ability to perform niche operations as an important driver and securing attractive long-term charters going forward. Further to that, our fleet is optimized for terminal compatibility, which is of significant important in the market that is changing from a fixed-route trade to worldwide trade and the fleet consists of groups of sister vessels that provides for overall relatively better economics and efficiencies. Let’s move to Slide 13. In summary, we are experiencing substantial growth of energy production from new projects, primarily in U.S., Russia and Australia. The world LNG carrier fleet appears too small to carry those additional volumes in the long term and there are too many small and old technology vessels. There appears to be sufficient demand for the new LNG from existing and new importers with floating regasification projects accelerating demand. The LNG shipping market is maturing with increased fixture activity, increasing LNG production and a growing LNG carrier fleets. The current LNG world fleet and order book, including FSRUs and FSUs, totals about 604 vessels. The order book counting 95 vessels is about 19% of the world’s fleet. Although 50% of the world fleet is steam-driven, as much as 30% of the world fleet is below 140,000 cubic meters and aged. We expect that most of these undersized and aged vessels will fade out of market and be replaced with larger with larger and younger tonnage in the long term. 68% of the order has been committed for employment. However, we have seen some speculative ordering activity lately that has added to the order book. According to the order book, most newbuilds will be delivered during 2019 and 2020, which is a period we expect increase in additional LNG production. There are only very few yards in the world that have the experience and capability to build such vessels, and if one were to order today, our guess is that yards will be able to offer tonnage for delivery in second half of 2020 at the earliest. Let’s move to Slide 14. LNG production grew by 22% during the last 5 years and is estimated to grow by 42% within 2022. We expect to see imminent production increases from Australia, U.S. and Russia. It is likely that the Far East will remain the largest buyers going forward, in particular with growing imports to China, driven by coal-to-gas switch. We also believe we will continue to see the emergence of new niche markets in areas such as South Asia, Africa, Middle East, South America, where volumes may be imported by FSIUs. We believe that there are sufficient buyers for the new LNG to be absorbed. The majority of new LNG export volumes have sale agreements or off-take agreements in place, and we believe that existing import markets will continue to increasingly rely on LNG as a price competitive and clean LNG resource. Let’s move to Slide 15. In the first half of 2018, LNG production was up 8% compared to first half of 2017. As expected in particular, Australia and the U.S. have been the largest incremental producers so far. The trend is expected to continue with new projects such as Yamal LNG Train 2 and Train 3, Cameron LNG, Elba, Wheatstone Train 2, Ichthys and Prelude being added. In March 2017, the industry saw the world’s first cargo been produced by a floating LNG terminal, namely the PFLNG Satu, and in May 2018 Golar’s FLNG Hilli producing first cargo, giving confidence to the FLNG technology. Moving on to Slide 16. The Far East is still the largest consumer of LNG and demand is growing. The Far East demand is fueled by recovering Japan, Korea and China’s push to replace coal with gas. The largest incremental importers of LNG in Q2 2018 came from the Far East. While Japan and Korea have long been relying on LNG as an energy resource, China completed its first LNG import in 2018 and today have 17 completed terminals and 8 under construction. Growth in Chinese energy imports have averaged 21% per annum in the five last years. And China is now the second largest importers of LNG behind Japan. And we expect a need for LNG into China to continue to grow going forward. Let's move to Slide 17. The main U.S. producing terminals are now Sabine Pass and Cove Point. Based on shipping volumes in Q2 2018, 15% of the exports went to South America; 22% of Central America, including Caribs, 3% to Europe, including Turkey; 39% to the Far East; 11% to the Middle East; and 10% to Indian and Pakistan. Analysis indicates that is required 1.91 vessel for every million tons of energy produced in the United States. Let's move to Slide 18. In the year 2000, 2% of oil energy were sold spot. In 2015, after years of substantial international investments in LNG infrastructure, this number had increased to 37%, which is steady increase in sport and short-term fixtures. Into 2016 and 2017 sport fixtures accounted for 89% and 91% respectively. Going forward, it is assumed that the sport shipping market will be substantial and therefore we believe that nice operators China Gas will be better suited to conclude long-time deals. Moving on to Slide 19. In conclusion, we're at pure play LNG shipping company focused owning and operating LNG carriers. Our versus our high specification and are employed on multiyear time charter, fixed rate contracts with international investment-grade energy companies such as Gazprom, Equinor and Yamal LNG. The partnerships’ ice classed and fleet enabled the flexibility to pursue the best of two different markets which has proven to be a strong advantage so far in securing long-term charters. Our $1.44 billion in remaining contracted revenue in over 10 years or average remaining contract-light provided partnerships with a benefits of stable cash flows and high utilization rates. We operate in LNG shipping which is a viper-linking in the global energy value chain. And our services allow our clients global energy companies to monetize their production of natural gas. Demand for naturally has been steadily growing and LNG trade is expected to grow by over 40% by 2022. We have now reached the end of the presentation, and I now open the floor for questions.