Michael P. Durney
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets.
Yes, so we've talked for a long time about the view that there's kind of full investment at $70 and above. Under $70, it starts to decline. And when you get to $50, it's really hard for a lot of markets to make money. That varies widely. In some markets, you can make money at $30 and $40. In some markets, it takes $60 and $70, but generally speaking, that's always been our view since we've been in this business over the last 4 or 5 years. So I'd say that's the baseline. Having said that, what I tried to portray when I was talking about the environment is one of the things that happens, and we saw this -- we didn't own the business in '08 and '09, but we certainly saw it. After the fact is, when you have steep movements up or down, there's a little bit of paralysis that comes because you don't know how far it's going to go up or how far it's going to go down. So what we've seen in the back half of Q4 and in the first month of 2015 is that paralysis, where you have no idea where it's going to go. And so what we hear from customers is, "I don't know. I can't make a decision. We'll see what happens," but the expectation is, no matter where it lands, so let's say it lands in the 40s for a period of time, once the movement stabilizes, then we'll start to see some level of recruiting activity. So that level of recruiting activity is likely to be lower in the 40s than it was -- would be in the 70s and was in the 90s and 100s, but there will be some level of recruitment activity. So that's why, when you look at our projections, generally speaking, we don't expect the business to be half the size, even though oil is less than half than what it was, because we expect that activity to continue, some level of activity to continue. But when it bottoms and when it stabilizes, we're pretty sure that a fair amount of recruitment activity will commence, recommence. So that's how I -- did that help?