Jeffrey L. Keefer
Analyst · Lehman Brothers. Please go ahead
Thanks Chad. Before covering the details of the quarter, let me frame for you how we view the results. In short, we had a strong performance in the second quarter, with earnings per share up 13% versus last year. The $1.18 earnings per share in the second quarter had about $0.07 of benefits from items we could not predict, when we gave you our guidance. The $0.07 is comprised of a litigation settlement and one-time tax settlement. We had resources working diligently on these items for sometime. And their efforts resulted in successful resolutions in the quarter. After accounting for those items, our strong performance was a result of better-than-expected Agriculture & Nutrition results, as well as strong performance across all our businesses. We are executing very effectively to meet our commitments in a challenging macro-economic environment. Turning now to slide 3, which summarizes earnings per share and sales results. Second quarter reported earnings per share grew 13% to $1.18 versus prior year quarter. For the first half, reported earnings per share grew 18%. Second quarter consolidated net sales increased 12%, a positive 7% local price, 5% currency benefit, 1% increase in volume and a negative 1% due to portfolio changes. Turning to slide 4, all segments increased sales by 8% or better. The standout in the quarter was Agriculture & Nutrition posting 23% sales growth. These results were underpinned by strong global agriculture markets, price gains in crop protection products and seed holding corn share in North America and gaining share in other seed markets. While Agriculture & Nutrition results were outstanding, all of our businesses turned in solid results reflecting global positions, the first five end markets, brand strength and technology advantages. Carl and Jim will cover the segments in detail but I want to highlight a few businesses performance. The coatings business grew sales and earnings due to the value of our industry-leading water-based ink technology and the strength of our brands. The TiO2 business grew sales and earnings as the global team relentlessly drew down costs, moved higher raw material costs down the value chain, grew in emerging markets and benefited from customers seeking a reliable supply partner. The chemicals businesses in Safety & Protection platform benefited from cost productivity, strong placing and value-enhanced offerings, such as environmental solutions. Electronics businesses in the E&CT platform delivered double-digit top and bottom line growth, reflecting strong demand for Solamet and Tedlar going into the photovoltaics market. There are headwinds, but this quarter, again, shows the value of the diversified... of the diversity of our product portfolio by end market and geography. Taking a different cut at our sales results, the global sales distribution on slide 5, shows that 60% of our sales were generated outside the U.S. U.S. sales were up 5% reflecting 9% price and 4% lower volume. The U.S. volume decline reflects lower volumes in all segments, except Ag & Nutrition. To add further color to our U.S. volumes, we estimate that about two-thirds of the U.S. volume decline was associated with the auto and housing markets. The remaining decline in the quarter can be attributed to other situation, such as being supply limited due to an extended plant outage at our ethylene facility, due to a scheduled major maintenance shutdown. Our earnings outlook, which we will discuss in a few minutes, anticipates weak demand from North America auto and housing markets continues into second half of 2008. Sales in emerging markets continued strong and overall grew 23%. Sales in Latin America grew 19%, emerging Asia grew 23% and emerging Europe grew 27%. Our growth in Latin America continues to be broad based, as all segments delivered solid growth in the quarter. Looking forward, our third quarter outlook for Latin America is favorable, as we start this summer agriculture season, which Jim will cover in a minute. We also anticipate continued growth across all other businesses. China sales grew 22% in the quarter. All segments posted solid results, and our outlook does not show slowing. Emerging Europe continued strong and the growth is broad based. We had double-digit growth in Poland, Russia and Turkey. Our emerging market teams led by Ellen Kullman are organized and executing well. Moving now to earnings and the EPS variance analysis on slide 6. You can see clearly that the largest variance for the quarter was our variable costs followed by price. We achieved our 18th consecutive quarter of local price increases, which boosted earnings per share of $0.42 over last year, but not enough to cover the $0.51 impact from higher variable costs. This was the largest quarterly gain from our pricing actions in the past four years as well as the largest quarterly increase in ingredient costs. All segments achieved local price improvements. Our teams have been doing a great job working with our customers; therefore [ph] the price changes quickly. And with the experience we've gained in adapting to the economic environment during the first half, we'll be even more vigilant on pricing action in the second half. The variable cost increase this quarter, adjusted for volume and currency, was $0.51 of our earnings per share. Let me elaborate just a bit. Raw material, energy and transportation costs increased about $550 million or about 15% in the quarter, which compares to 9% in the first quarter versus about 5% increase in all of 2007. The raw material increases are the result of a historic high oil and gas prices that also reflect agricultural commodity cost increases as well as tight supply for chemicals, such as sulfur, ammonia, caustic soda, coke, ore and methanol, just to name a few. In addition, variable costs and margins this quarter also included a $52 million pre-tax charge on open soybean contracts. Let me give you some background on this. We do utilize financial contracts to help manage the commodity price risks on our purchases. We have been using financial contracts for over 10 years and usually these gains or losses are fairly small in any given quarter. In the second quarter, we took a mark-to-market charge on open soybean contracts due to the recent run-up in soybean commodities prices. Looking forward, we have put in place financial instruments to minimize the negative earnings volatility. In our full year earnings guidance, we are assuming that our variable costs, excluding volume and currency impacts, will continue to increase at about the rate we occurred in the second quarter. Meaning, we are anticipating full year variable cost increases of about $2 billion pre-tax. Our base tax rate in the quarter was 22.7% versus 24.6% prior year quarter, generating a $0.03 earnings per share benefit as shown in the waterfall. The lower base tax rate primarily reflects one-time tax benefits and to a lesser extent, favorable geographic mix of earnings. We expect the full year base tax rate to be about 25%, creating about an $0.08 per share of headwind in the second half versus last year. Closing up the EPS variance analysis, the increase in fixed cost was $0.04 in the quarter, excluding the impacts of currency and volume. This equates to about a $50 million pre-tax increase on a $ 3 billion base of fixed cost in the quarter. Fixed cost, as a percentage sales, improved by 200 basis points to 36.6%. Our productivity programs, again, delivered savings that largely offset inflation and growth investment. We are on track to deliver $400 million of productivity programs in 2008, as one component of our commitment to deliver $1.7 billion in fixed and variable savings between 2008 and 2010. Moving to cash and debt, our strong sales performance increased accounts receivable levels, versus prior year resulting in higher net working capital at quarter end. Our capital spending is on track to be about $2 billion in 2008. This plan includes growth investments in a higher margin, higher return businesses. In general, our cash performance is following typical seasonal patterns. Turning to slide 7, we are raising the lower end and are narrowing our full year earnings per share guidance, to a range of $3.45 to $3.55, or 5% to 8% growth in 2008. Having earned $2.49 per share in the first half, this equates with the second half guidance range of $0.96 to $1.06 per share, compared to $1.16 per share in last year's second half. After adjusting for the absence of asset sales in last year's second half of $0.04 and about $0.08... an $0.08 headwind from the higher tax rate, we expect second half segment pre-tax operating income will be about equal to last year. This assumes slightly lower volumes, higher ingredient costs and continued pricing of productivity gains. We also expect the split between third and fourth quarter EPS to be about equal. The assumptions embedded in our guidance are firmly rooted in the new realty of our challenging environment, slightly lower volumes and higher raw material costs. They are also rooted on our proven capability to achieve continued pricing and productivity gains. With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.