Earnings Labs

DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Wed, Jan 30, 2008

$45.29

-2.98%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, my name is Jackie and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the DuPont Fourth-Quarter 2007 Investor Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. To listen to the webcast, please go to www.dupont.com. Thank you. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Chad Holliday, Chairman and CEO. Sir you may begin your conference.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining today's webcast covering DuPont's financial results and outlook. Our CFO Jeff Kiefer is with me today and so is Carl Lukach, our Vice President of Investor Relations. He will be coming on in just a minute to take you through our results, but I wanted to introduce today's call. First, thank you for calling in today, recognizing all the dynamics in the financial markets. I believe you will be pleased with what we have to say about our company. If you remember, we announced actions to accelerate value creation in November 2005, which are now largely complete. As a result, our company is stronger, more productive and more profitable. We are announcing today the next phase of our acceleration plan. I posted a letter to our shareholders today on our website outlining the key focus points of our plan and I invite you to read it. The bottom line is, DuPont today is on a springboard for growth, from new science, new products and new markets. I'll discuss this later in today's call. But also I want you to attend our upcoming meeting on March 14 for investors. We will introduce in our press release today and we will explain our acceleration plans in more detail. Let me now turn the call over to Carl to kick things off.

Carl Lukach

Analyst

Okay, thank you Chad. I need to first take care of some administrative items and then Jeff is going to walk you through our highlights on performance. I'll come back after Jeff with our customary platform preview and then we will go back to Chad. For those of you accessing this call through our website dupont.com, we will be using slides today. Please turn to slide two. During the course of this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements. All statements that address expectations or projections about the future are forward-looking statements. Although they reflect our current expectations, the statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve a number of risks and assumptions. We urge you to review DuPont's SEC filings for discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. We've also posted on our website today supplemental information that we hope will be helpful to your understanding of our company's performance. With that, let me turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Jeff Keefer.

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

Thanks very much Carl and good morning everyone. It was a strong quarter and year. We executed our plans and delivered results that exceeded our targets. Underlying fourth-quarter earnings per share grew 27%, $0.57 per share. Underlying full-year 2000 [ph] earnings per share grew 14%, the fourth quarter and full-year growth was broad and deep across our businesses. In summary for the quarter, we drove strong topline growth of 11% globally and 20% in emerging markets. Our pricing gains were well ahead of increasing raw material and energy cost. Fixed cost as a percent of sales improved 210 basis points while we continue to invest in our higher margin businesses. In segment pretax operating income excluding items grew 30%, and our operating margin improved 210 basis points. Starting now with slide three. Fourth quarter reported earnings were $0.60 per share and includes a net benefit of $0.03 per significant item that include impairment charges, tax settlements, and a litigation reserve reversal. Excluding items from both periods earnings per share were up 27%. The results are higher than the outlook issued by the company on January 9, largely due to finalization of the company's tax rate and higher business performance. Aligned with the double-digit earnings growth segment pre-tax operating income increased 30% and margins expanded 210 basis points. All five segments grew earnings in the quarter and locked in full year of segment pre-tax operating income growth of 13%. While performance increased across all our segments, Performance Materials and Ag and Nutrition delivered over 20% earnings growth in 2007. Fourth-quarter consolidated net sales were $7 billion, up 11%. The topline results reflect our strong presence outside the US and the success of new products, particularly in Ag and Nutrition and strong performance in Kevlar and Nomex brand names. Looking at our…

Carl Lukach

Analyst

Okay, thanks Jeff. Everyone will move to our platform review. Let’s begin with our Ag & Nutrition platform on slide 11. Sales grew 23% to $1.3 billion. Underlying earnings improved 40% from a loss of $148 million in the fourth quarter last year to a loss of $89 million this quarter. I'd like to point out that the fourth quarter this year includes a gain of $15 million related to a crop, chemical assets divestiture. Excluding this gain, our PTOI for the platform grew 30% quarter-over-quarter. The strong performance delivered by our Ag platform was driven by strong international sales across the platform and across all regions coupled with cost productivity improvements from the restructuring program we announced to you one year ago. I will give you the details beginning with crop protection product. Sales and earnings were up significantly driven by strong regional demand and buoyed by favorable pricing in Latin America. Insecticide demand was particularly strong in Latin America and Europe. Asia-Pacific volume was up significantly driven by demand for [inaudible] in Japan and broad market growth across the region. Margins expanded on favorable pricing and fixed cost productivity gains. Moving to seeds, fourth quarter sales at Pioneer increased 40%, led by substantial growth in Latin America and Asia and early season sales in Europe and North America. Last quarter we described the strong season under way in Latin America. That strong momentum carried through the fourth quarter as well. Corn market share was up four to five points in Brazil and Argentina on expanding acreage in both countries. In fact, 2007 was the fifth consecutive year of share gains for corn and soybeans in Brazil. For the full-year 2007, our seed business PTOI represented about two thirds of total platform PTOI and in 2007 earned an 18%…

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Thank you Carl. As Jeff and Carl summarized, we grew earnings per share 27% in the fourth quarter and 14% for the full year. While weaker dollar at Cozaar certainly helped, they were not the primary reason we overcame the challenging environment in US housing, auto and raw material. We grew earnings because we are successful in growing revenue outside the US and because we were successful at reducing cost, while funding our growth investments. Our ability to exceed in these areas are two direct outcomes of the plan we recited to you November 2005, to accelerate value creation by our company. The actions we took as of November 2005 acceleration plan have made our company stronger and more profitable. Our pre-tax profit margin and return on invested capital are up significantly and continue to rise. Our R&D cost and capital productivity plans are either on or ahead of plan. In the third quarter last year, we completed our $5 billion share repurchase program and raised our dividend 11%. In short, we are not just talking, we are doing and I hope you can see that in our results. With November 2005 acceleration plan largely complete, we are not taking any victory laps. Instead we are focused on the next phase of our accelerations, our focus is a higher rate of earnings growth to significantly increase the value of our company. We want to prove to not just to be in our results as it is now, but also in our stock price. We must keep posting the candid performance that's impossible to ignore or discount. We are announcing today an extension of our November 2005 acceleration plan. Our extension will achieve an even higher level of profitable and sustainable growth. Please turn to slide 16. We will accelerate our…

Carl Lukach

Analyst

Okay. Thank you Chad and Jeff. Jackie, we're ready to go to our callers' questions. Question and Answer

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Your first question is from Don Carson with Merrill Lynch.

Donald Carson

Analyst

Yes, thank you. Well, Diane did such a good job at Performance Materials, I won’t ask my usual question, [inaudible] sell the business. But on the agricultural side, Chad you talked about acquisitions. Would these be major acquisitions or technology and then just as a follow-up, can you update us on the achievability of your goal of stabilizing market share at Pioneer and US corn seed in 2008?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Don, thank you for the question you asked and the one you didn't ask too. On acquisitions, I've put that in particular, because we see tremendous international growth and international strength. And there could be some very focused acquisitions internationally that will add to our market reach. Secondly, from a technology standpoint, we are constantly scanning and we've got better systems than we've ever had before to scan where the leading edge technology is. So, picking up some of these companies that would really match what we need to do are the kinds of things that we're constantly focused on to make a difference. It's too early to talk about the second part of your question about the year, but I'm very pleased.

Donald Carson

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Carl Lukach

Analyst

Don, I could add to that. I think you may have heard some of this before, but certainly the factors that go towards holding share and even in North American core market is the availability of our triples; as you know it's way up. And so we mentioned on the call, our order book is strong for the season and on track in the direction that would indicate that. And we're expecting return on the growth investments that you've already made in our sales team. So, those would be the three factors I would point to at this early part of the season.

Donald Carson

Analyst

Okay. Thanks Carl.

Carl Lukach

Analyst

Okay. Thanks Don.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

David Begleiter

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Chad, give me your confidence [ph] from the outlook, we've stock crisis. Any further update on share buybacks with your cash position?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Well, of course, I pointed out that we completed ahead of schedule our $5 billion share buyback. It'll be inappropriate to speculate on future share back. I think if you look at our track record, we've been very good at returning money to share holders either through dividend increases or share buybacks. But we see some good growth in this company. And so we think now in this market, there is room to increase the topline, some of that the cash you go for that too.

David Begleiter

Analyst

And Jeff, you mentioned a $0.20 hit in '07 from auto and housing, what's the hit in your '08 forecast?

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

Yes, if you look at kind of the year-over-year numbers, we would expect probably about that same $0.20 in that range. I would call your attention to again, we've put in a lot of drivers to offset that. We offset it in '07, and clearly emerging country growth, repositioning even in that segment commercial, the new products are going to stand us in good stead.

Operator

Operator

Thank You. Your next question is from Frank Mitsch with BB&T Capital Markets.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

Hi, good morning gentlemen. Nice results, a bit unfortunate today you... today you put it out.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Good morning Frank.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

Looking longer term, Chad in your letter to shareholders, you talked about through 2010 a clear potential for average double-digit earnings growth and that implies, if we are looking at '08, your guidance is 335 to 355 average 345, 10% in '09 and 10% in 2010, gets you to a 420 number. Are we to read that sentence as suggesting that you are signing onto $4.20 earnings in 2010?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Well Frank, I wouldn't question your math, but I wouldn't confirm it without checking it. But what we are saying and we chose those words carefully. That if you take 2008 as the base year, we take all average for the next couple of years, we can get double-digit earnings growth. And that's because of the build up or specific plans we put in place both from the cost reductions side which will still be very important, very critical to us but also on the topline growth side. So, that's why I put that out, is that a clear answer to the question.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

That is, the one caveat I guess or the elephant in the room is Cozaar Hyzaar starting in 2010 to dip down, and I understand what you're talking about the existing DuPont businesses, but the projection of average double-digit earnings growth, that is inclusive of the decline in Cozaar Hyzaar in 2010, is that correct?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Of course.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

Thank you.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Thanks Frank.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Bob Koort from Goldman Sachs.

Robert Koort

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Jeff, you gave some new data we haven't heard before about specific sub segment or a business unit return on asset improvement, and you highlighted some notables. I was wondering if you could tell us how auto OEM is doing on that metric and then secondly maybe Chad, if you could give us a little more commentary about what's going on in Europe. I sense from a lot investors anxiety that Europe is going to be lagging the US and head towards recession as well, and it looks like your volumes are a little bit weak there, maybe you can give us some comments. Thanks.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

On auto OEM, I'm not going to quote specific numbers, but you saw I think the overall improvement, I think Carl quoted 22% across an earnings growth across our quoting segment. OEM has certainly benefited the restructuring savings at top and bottom line. So, when I look at our return on net asset metrics, that business has improved as well.

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

And Bob on your question about Europe, obviously in release to... you could see where the volume was, yet overall sales growth was 13%. We've taken a very close look throughout the quarter as to the drivers there, and it is uniqueness of the comparison with the fourth quarter of last year and some various specific inventory shifts that we are in control of because of phasing in new products and phasing out old products. We don't see negative growth in Europe, but we see slow growth in Europe certainly.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with JP Morgan.

Jeff Zekauskas

Analyst

Hi, good morning. I guess my first question is for Jeff Keefer. What was cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter and what percentage of the $2 billion in CapEx you expect for 2008 goes to the agricultural operation?

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

On that second one Jeff, not much on the Ag in terms of the CapEx spending. I mean what you're seeing there is more about the previously announced expansion plan in Kevlar with the lead one there. Some of the Nomex expansion money and also some of the TiO2 expansion projects kicking in.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Jeff, in terms of cash flow for the fourth quarter, I only have the total year’s statistics available to be right now and that was about $4.3 billion, which was an increase over last year. We'll report... you can get fourth quarter after the call here.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from P.J Juvekar with Citi.

P.J Juvekar

Analyst

Yes. Hi, good morning. In Ag can you talk about what happened to seed and chemical prices in Brazil and what do you expect in the US? And the second question is, how many acres of triple-stack corn do you expect to have for this growing season?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Okay. Let's talk first P.J about Latin America. Okay, for '07 Latin American seed sales for Pioneer were up 54%. And I'm talking about the season now P.J, it’s about the third and fourth quarter primarily. And that was obviously driven by increased currency sales in Brazil and Argentina, strong product performance, higher grain prices and higher share. In Brazil, we've gained five points of share in corn and that includes all three tiers of the market including the one we don't sell into in third tier, and in beans we gained about a point in share. In Argentina, we've gained about four points in corn. So you've all of the drivers to growth coming on to the seed business there at once, you've got the acreage going up, shares gains going up, and a bit of price action too. In crop chemicals, we did have good pricing in Latin America, profitability was strong aided by the expanded acreage and demand. Your last question again P.J, could you repeat that?

P.J Juvekar

Analyst

How many acres of triple stack would you have in the US?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Triple... gee, I don't have in acres, I have it in percentage of sales, about one third of our corn offering. In this you could probably back calculate that.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from [inaudible] with HSBC.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hello.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Yes, good morning.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Couple of questions, Chad. Congratulations on a good quarter. Can you talk about what your operational improvement initiatives are regarding manufacturing, TPM and Six Sigma and around the world with economy looking at a recession? What are some of the plans that you are concerned with around the world and what areas that you're concerned with DuPont in operational efficiency?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Hi, Dave, thanks for the question. So, we've put in Six Sigma in 1999. That is well baked into our company, which means every improvement program is measured and has a control plan and is audited at least once a year out, to make sure we've really got the results. What we've done now under Richard's leadership to take that to the next phase, what we call DuPont Production System, which more engages our employees and gets the creativity much higher and the enthusiasm much higher. And where we've been able to do that, we've seen just a step change, over 2X improvement in the kind of results we've from Six Sigma. We pioneered that on two of our largest sites last year, we're going to 17 more sites this year, and it will take it across the entire company. This DuPont integrated business management is a supply chain process, where we're rating and evaluating every product family, how effective their supply chain is, that is the fundamental that is going to help us take working capital down to the next step. Again, it is all statistically based just like Six Sigma, but it takes it beyond what we have been able to do so far. So, those are the two programs that are driving across the entire company and what we see is several years of more productivity improvements from these... just like we thought it would be, because it's fundamental change not just taking out cost. And we will describe that in great more detail on March 14. The second question around the plants being set up for this kind of economy. This current exchange rates is going to play into us a bit, where you might think we might have some trapped assets in the US, with the dollar value, we are good exporter right now. And we have been pulling down our asset base in Western Europe for some time. I think you have seen we announced last three or four years. I don't see any large assets in Western Europe that will not be successful in this period. Obviously our Asia and Latin American assets are going like gangbusters.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Kevin McCarthy with Banc of America Securities.

Kevin McCarthy

Analyst

Yes, good morning Chad. Given the level of anxiety in the financial markets, I was wondering if you could comment on two higher-level questions both macro in nature. First could you comment on the monthly pattern of your sales and earnings within the quarter? In other words, did the quarter end any differently than it began and second what are your underlying economic growth assumptions for the United States and China as well as the energy complex?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Kevin, thanks for your question. First, let me refer back to the letter that we put out this morning. I know it is a little bit unusual, normally we issue it a couple of months later, but we thought with all the anxiety with our plans being so clear, what we're doing in the balance of those, we thought it was important to put it out today. So, I think kind of reading the letter will give you the tenor of how we see things, not specifically the short-term economics for the next month or two, but what we see is the potential for low return growth. Let me give you a couple of data on your question about trends. Looking at Asia, which I know people are concerned about, will Asia hold up with the US where it is? We had the strongest quarter in the fourth quarter in Asia by order of magnitude of revenue growth. It was over 16% in the fourth quarter versus 8% for the entire year. So, we didn't see in that region certainly or the other regions any pattern coming in the fourth quarter that makes us concerned over and above what we had in our plans for next year. So, I don't think any pattern that’s a problem, but what I'd like to stress is our global strength and how the task force I described with my Group Vice Presidents is focusing on those opportunities. I think that puts us in a really good position, if we were to see a hiccup somewhere along the way.

Kevin McCarthy

Analyst

And what would you be baking in for the US, China and energy?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

On energy we are assuming it’s going to stay very high at least for the first half in the kind of order magnitudes we've been seeing. And that is why we have been putting in place very disciplined price improvement programs, and as I referred to in my talk, what we see is tremendous potential now in yield improvement, energy improvement all based on those systems I described a little bit earlier. So, we are dealing with those as they come up. We are not expecting any tailwinds to push us along here. We have to work for throughout 2008.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Steve Schuman with New Vernon Associates.

Steven Schuman

Analyst

Hi good morning guys.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Steve.

Steven Schuman

Analyst

Sorry guys, sorry about that. On CapEx, you increased it quite significantly. Why such a large increase? Obviously you have got the TiO2 plant and the Kevlar situation, but I think we all performed a greater growth globally. It's probably going to slow in the next couple of years. Why not cut back on some of the other areas?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

We spent... we've been spending about $1.5 billion to about $1.7 billion over the last several years. And the growth in our capital is really related to those focused investments in Kevlar and TiO2, those are very healthy businesses, growing businesses and we need to support that growth, that will support higher profits and returns in the company overall.

Steven Schuman

Analyst

I guess you've mentioned TiO2 profitability was down slightly. Is this the time, right time to build? Is there a way you can push this back at all or are you sort of locked in at this point?

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

I think it’s absolutely still… I know that business very, very well. I think it’s absolutely the right time to continue to move forward. Again that's a very high return business for us, we know how to operate that business very, very well.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Jeff, it's Chad, I just want to add. We are going to build the lowest cost flat in the world and the fastest growing market in the world, give me that any day of the week.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Mark Gulley with Soleil Securities.

Mark Gulley

Analyst

Yes. I had some questions regarding portfolio restructuring. Chad you had this question a couple of different times, but given the softness in the economics outlook, are there anymore asset sales that you need to do to tighten up the portfolio?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Mark, as Jeff described, we've been focused on that period of time. I think what you can see is a [inaudible] that have really come up, we have made some focused divestitures, we're always out to create the most shareholder value. But right now, I like to mix the parts we have, but... just looking at what we've done in the last several years, we have made right sense for shareholders, we'll roll into make adjustments. But I'm not forecasting anything today.

Mark Gulley

Analyst

Also want to follow-up on TiO2, one of your more important product lines. You've announced three rounds of price increases in about the last six to seven months. Are the realizations from that, from those three rounds of price increases sufficiently strong to encourage you to move head aggressively on expansion and seeing higher margins?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Well, again I'm not going to get into the specific in the pricing. You've seen that... you've mentioned Mark with the three price increases. We're encouraged in that market, and again that as a high return business, we've got a low-cost position in a very rapidly growing market and it's a right thing to do to invest in that business to grow shareholder value.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Edward Yang with Oppenheimer.

Edward Yang

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. My question is also on emerging markets growth. Chad, you spoke about the very strong trends you've seen recently. But over the past couple of days, emerging markets, stock markets are down double-digits and seem to be predicting some type of slow down. Could you elaborate a little bit in terms of, why you think that growth there would remain strong, and this theory on decoupling, how... how valid do you think that is?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Great question. I understand why you ask... it is hard to take into account… you know a few days movement in stock markets in our overall business case. So, let me kind of talk about what's unique about our company. We've got over 35% of our sales from [inaudible] less than five years old. And what we find is customers during downtimes want to be pushing out new products and that's what ours could do, it could allow them to have new products. Secondly, we are much more specialized in the normal commodities. We have a few commodities, TiO2 is one of them, but generally we're more specialized than we're more locked in and they don't move suddenly just based on short-term demand. And again remember we've got our agricultural business, we see the commodity prices trends there. We just think that's going to be good for a very long time to come. So, I don't think we're typical of what maybe others might experience. But I don't see any big alarm signs coming from our people on the field, [inaudible] six years, I stay really close to that market and I'm not saying that we are home free or that we can take a look at what's happening, but right now we're going to have a good year.

Edward Yang

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from John Roberts with Buckingham Research.

John Roberts

Analyst

Morning. Shouldn’t the growth rate for the first quarter earnings be targeted higher than the growth rate for the whole year? You have a stronger lift from agriculture in the first quarter and I assume the fourth quarter is going to have difficult comps given the low tax rate this year. So, don’t you need to start the year off with a higher than average growth rate, so that you can cover for the back-end of the year?

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

John as we see it, you see that our first quarter is right in line with our overall guidance and so that is our best judgment right now, and it's the guidance we have given.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

John, in the cost cut that you went through the... each platform you can see that the drivers and the headwinds platform by platform. That we add up as Jeff said to call it down the middle there.

John Roberts

Analyst

I am just making the observation that back half of the year, unless you are assuming a low tax rate in the fourth quarter again, you got lower Ag participation in the back half of the year than you do in the first quarter that you ought to come out of it and start the year off a little bit above trend

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

John, I understand what you are saying and we have really analyzed that from the revenue, costs, margin standpoints quarter-by-quarter or actually month-by-month, and the first quarter that we've got out there... a kind of year that we look at overall. I understand your question fully. I don't see a pattern to be concerned about there at all.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your final question is from Mike Judd with Greenwich Consultants.

Michael Judd

Analyst

Actually my question has just been answered. Thank you.

Carl Lukach

Analyst

Thank you. Okay, Jackie I guess that wraps up our call. Investors, thank you again as Chad said for signing on such a busy morning in the financial market. As every quarter the IR team is here to answer any follow-up questions, and I want to highlight one... some words in the press release, we are scheduling an Investor Event on March 14 in New York city, details would be available on our website soon and we hope that you'll join us there. Thank you again very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's DuPont fourth quarter 2007 investor conference call. You may now disconnect.