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DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD)

Q3 2007 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 24, 2007

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is, Jackie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the DuPont Third Quarter 2007 Investor Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. [Operator Instructions]. We do ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question. To listen to the webcast please go to www.dupont.com. Thank you. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host Carl Lukach, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin your conference.

Carl J. Lukach

Analyst

Thank you, Jackie. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. We're pleased to present by way of this webcast our third quarter 2007 financial results. Here with me this morning are DuPont's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Chad Holliday; and our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jeff Keefer. For our agenda today, first Jeff will review the third quarter results. Next I'll highlight each of our platform performance. And after that Chad will share with you his summary comments on the remainder of this year and our 2008 outlook. Please turn to slide 2. During the course of this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements. All statements that address expectations or projections about the future are forward-looking statements. Although they reflect our current expectations, these statements are not guarantees of future performance, but involve a number of risks and assumptions. We urge you to review DuPont's SEC filings for a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. We also invite you to please see the supplemental information that we have posted on our website this morning including the slides that we will use with today's webcast. With that I will now turn the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Jeff Keefer. Jeff?

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

Thanks very much, Carl, and good morning, everyone. The third quarter was challenging with rising ingredient cost and persistent weakness in certain US markets, yet we ended with strong results. The key points are: we drove strong top-line growth of 6% globally and 11% outside of the US. Excluding portfolio changes, sales grew 7% by a 12% increase in sales in our international markets. Our underlying third quarter earnings per share grew 20%. We increased third quarter segment pre-tax operating income, excluding items, by 12%, and our operating margin improved 90 basis points. We improved productivity. Fixed cost, as a percent of sales, declined while we continue to invest in our higher margin businesses. Let's look at the details of the quarter, add some color to our results and preview our outlook for the year. Starting now with slide 3, third quarter reported earnings were $0.56 per share versus $0.52 per share a year earlier. Excluding a $0.03 per share 2007 litigation charge and a $0.03 per share 2006 insurance recoveries, earnings were $0.59 per share compared to $0.49 per share last year representing a 20% improvement. The double-digit earnings growth was based on well positioned global businesses, delivering solid sales growth in growing markets. Third quarter sales were $6.7 billion up 6% or $366 million. Excluding portfolio changes our sales grew 7%. On a year-to-date basis sales were $22.4 billion, an increase of 6% or $1.3 billion. Looking at our global sales distribution on slide 4, 64% of our sales in the quarter were generated outside the US. Our regional sales mix continues to shift as our sales teams and technical centers bring our technology to new customers and new markets all around the world. The standout region this quarter was clearly Latin America. Sales were about $900 million,…

Carl J. Lukach

Analyst

Okay, Jeff, thank you. Let's turn now to the performance and outlook for each of our platforms. In discussing segment performance, we'll comment on results before significant items, and all references we make to earnings are on a pre-tax operating income basis with comparison to last year. We also provide considerable detail about segment performance on the DuPont IR website, including reconciliations of non-GAAP measures. Please turn to slide 9. Our AG and Nutrition platform segment delivered an outstanding quarter with 21% sales gain and 38% earnings growth. We had a $25 million gain, as Jeff mentioned, from a contract termination payment and we also increased seed, R&D, and sales and marketing by about $25 million as well, as planned. Excluding the gain, earnings improved 21%. Sales of $1.1 billion reflect broad base strength in corn and soybean seed sales in Brazil and Argentina, strong canola sales in Europe, and strong chemical sales in Latin America and Europe. The lower seasonal PTOI lost, this year, was driven by strong sales and some restructuring benefits offset by growth investment spending in our seed business. Let's look at the details beginning with Crop Chemicals. Sales were up modestly with strong sales in Europe and Latin America offset by a decline in North America. Earnings were up significantly, driven by cost competitiveness programs. Fungicide demand in Europe was strong, due to high disease conditions in Northern European potatoes and grapes in France. Demands for SU [ph] used in sugarcane, soybeans and corn was strong in Latin America. These gains were partly offset by lower sales in the United States with lower insect protection in Texas Cotton, Western alfalfa, Midwest soybeans and Florida fruit and vegetable markets. Our outlook for the fourth quarter in Crop Chemicals is double-digit growth in sales and a significant…

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Thanks, Carl, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to share with you my perspective on the third quarter results. Please turn to slide 14. You can see this quarter that overall growth strategies improvement efforts are more visible in terms of top-line growth and operating leverage the bottom-line. Our broad-based 11% top-line growth outside the US reflects progress on our strategy to go where the growth is. It's being enabled by the investments we've made in people and facilities over the past decade throughout the world. We are capitalizing on that strength, especially in emerging markets and expect to continue do so. The increased rate of new product flow from DuPont reflects progress on our strategy to put our science to work. We introduced 278 new products in the third quarter. Let me share some specific examples of these new products. In our seed business, we introduced 40 new corn hybrids for the southern hemisphere growing season in Latin America, Africa and Asia. We launched a new corn fiber technology that improves utilization of the normally indigestible parts of forage, providing high energy content in livestock feed. In Europe this year, we introduced a new canola hybrid named Maximus that offers higher yield and higher oil content. Moving to our building innovations team, they introduced a new hard roof platter using several DuPont products that provides more durable, better protection against roof leak and better mould resistant than conventional roofing fill. Our Electronic Technologies team commercialized a new family of foam resistance for high-frequency coax cables to enhance electrical performance. Our performance coatings business continued global introductions of new water-borne base coats that significantly reduce emissions. And performance materials were introduced two new glass reinforced Zytel resins for food contact and for auto applications. In the third quarter, we filed…

Carl J. Lukach

Analyst

Okay. Thanks Chad. Jackie we're ready to go to caller questions now. Question And Answer

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Your first question is from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.

Robert Koort

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. Jeff, I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about your return on capital expectations for the new Chinese Ti02 plant in light of choppier conditions that are in that market at the moment.

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

Well, Bob, first of all, I don't have any change in our expectation on returns on capital in that business. You got to, as you know, look at that business over a long term framework, where you are in a low cost position in that business. That's an excellent investment for us and I expect the returns to be very good.

Robert Koort

Analyst

Can you discuss, maybe, what's caused such a challenge in getting prices up there. As the market leader it seems like you announced a few price hikes but we haven't so much traction. What's really going on there that's creating you problem?

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

Well, Bob, I am not going to get into specific about pricing in Ti02, let me just say though that I think we really do deliver value to our customers in that marketplace, and I think you are going to see great performance out of that business going forward.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Bob it's, Chad, I'll like to just add, we're seeing more and more enforcement in higher standard for environmental compliance in China and we think that will bode very well for our process. It's extremely environmentally friendly. I'd just like to stress what Jeff said, is if we're going there, we can be a low cost producer and we think that bodes very well for growth in China and the neighboring countries too.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Don Carson with Merrill Lynch.

Donald Carson

Analyst

Just a question on the AG front, there has been some holdback in the rate of growth on ethanol. I think USDAs are calling for both flow rate number, 87 million acres of corn planted next year down from 94 million acres this year. What kind of a headwind does that create for the Pioneer turnaround efforts? And just... I know harvest isn't completed yet, but on your initial results you have any look at how you did on your yield comparisons versus your competitors this year in US corn?

Carl J. Lukach

Analyst

Okay, John, thanks for those questions, as far as the acreage assumptions go for next year and how that mix goes. I think that the short answer to your question is not much of an impact. We're expecting another strong year, directionally, without number associated with it. We would support the USDA directional guidance that corn acres will be down as soy acres will be up. We've got exciting new products going into both crops. So, our outlook is strong for the total seed business there. Don't expect much swing factor there. In terms of the yield results for this year's harvest, I am sure you saw and a lot of people saw the USDA crop progress report yesterday, it's still early, 60% of the corn harvest is complete but only 40% in IOWA and some other key states. We are assembling, as we do, over 15,000 comparison tests, head-to-head comparison test to assemble our conclusions around yield. I don't want to go out with any preliminary answers there but we're compiling all that data right now.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Don, it's Chad, I just want to add that the international shares we expect to continue to increase next year like it did this.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Sirgay Vasmetzoff with Lehman Brothers.

Sirgay Vasmetzoff

Analyst

Good morning. You bought about 23 million shares this quarter and yet the average number count declined to 4 million sequentially. Does this mean that you bought shares late in September and hence the average number for the fourth quarter would be about 9 to10 million.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Sirgay the answer to your question is, yes, we did buy late in the third quarter, and we would expect our share count for the year to still be about 9.28 about 9.05 in the fourth quarter.

Sirgay Vasmetzoff

Analyst

Okay. And so generally speaking what are your thoughts on further share buyback in 2008?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

That's something that we just completed our share buyback for the... of the $5 billion dollars. I am not going to speculate about the future. I think we are living up to our principles, which is maintaining a strong balance sheet, returning excess cash to shareholders unless we have a compelling growth opportunity. As I commented earlier, over the last couple of years we've returned $9.2 billion of cash to shareholders.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Mike Judd with Greenwich Consultants.

Michael Judd

Analyst

Yes. Good morning. It tend to... it sounds like you are not going to be allocating as much cash in the future to share repurchases, could you talk a little bit about your plans to invest in M&A, specially given that I guess down the road here in a few years we're going to have less earnings coming from the Pharmaceutical part of the business.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Mike it's Chad. I wouldn't draw any conclusions about what we are going to do or not to do around share repurchase. I'll just reinforced what Jeff said that we don't have good uses internally that we are sure better will return cash to shareholders in the most appropriate way. I am excited about our current growth prospects for our current products. We announced the expansion of Kevlar. Previously in the year, we announced Nomex expansions. We see not only those markets improving but we see great applications. We will have some need for capital to... where we are getting tie-down capacity, we don't want to get behind there. If you look at our track record on acquisitions, we're buying where we bring some really unique technology that we can put into our global distribution and get more value than the current owners will still look for that, but I wouldn't expect any marked change in our plan. I like what we've got there for bio base materials. I encourage on that 12 and 13 meeting, that we maybe you will see some very, very exciting things that we can grow and we've got options of growing, by putting some of our capital in or we get options by taking just the royalties technology. So, I like our odds and degrees of freedom to grow effectively to meet that 2010 date you throw out.

Michael Judd

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

David Begleiter

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Chad, just on your Coatings businesses, given the progress in RONA and the challenges in OEM, you finish an industrial, are those businesses still long term core businesses for DuPont?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

David thanks for the question. I am very encouraged with the productivity improvement I see across all the Coatings businesses, that's where we're pioneering some of our DuPont production system work, where we're seeing real opportunities for yield improvement, quality improvement. I was just out with a group of Coatings customers last week, and they are really commenting about the water borne products, how good they are, how anxious they are to make the conversion. We've got tremendous value to continue to bring in this Coatings business, not to think about the next wave of products that may come. So, we are focused on increasing the value by improving the cash flow from these businesses. I am confident we will. This is an important business to the company.

David Begleiter

Analyst

Elevation and Coatings, Chad, do you think you will be a player in this trend going forward?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Do you think... If the question is, would we'll be a buyer in the Coatings area. You never rule anything out and if there is something of real unique specialty nature that we thought we brought some technology to, we'd certainly consider it. I think we're going to have more attractive opportunities in biotechnology, bio-based materials, enhancing our base there. There might be some good opportunities for other folks you never rule it out. But I really believe, as I look across the, our safety and protection product line, tremendous opportunities there. So, my guess is they will have higher returns in the Coatings acquisitions which never rule out.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with JP Morgan.

Jeffery Zekauskas

Analyst

Hi. Good morning.

Jeffery Zekauskas

Analyst

In both, Safety and Protection and Performance Materials, you showed double-digit operating income growth despite the very week domestic construction and auto markets. Can you quantify how much auto and domestic construction hurt you for the quarter and for the year, thus far?

Carl J. Lukach

Analyst

Jeff, it's Carl. It's really coming out along the lines to what we predicted, and when Alan was on the call two quarters ago, about a $0.05 a share of headwind in this third quarter just ended, and that's consistent with the first two quarters that brings it to about $0.15 for the year, and I don't known that there is, we see anything different for that looking into the fourth quarter.

Jeffery Zekauskas

Analyst

And if I can have a follow-up, Monsanto is making a fuss about smart stack, and in your Materials for the quarter you talked about Herculex being stronger than YieldGard, and what Monsanto, obviously, wants to do is to take your Herculex traits and stock it on their traits. Do you have an answer to that or from a competitive standpoint what do you plan to do in 2010, if any?

Carl J. Lukach

Analyst

Thanks for that, Jeff. We certainly do have an answer for that. We expect to be every bit as competitive, and actually the goal is to be superior to competitive offering. It's all of that weed control, insect control and fungus control. And we have a dual mode of action weed control product on the market today. We'll be the only supplier with that product offering for the next two seasons. That will go to three modes of action in 2010 in corn with a option of gas trait. In terms of fungus control, we'll be the first supplier out with a AMTRAK [ph] nose resistant trait in this coming season in 2008 in North America. And then in insect control we have a dual mode of action of product to line up with the competitors product and others, and we have other things in development as well. So, Jeff, short answer, Jeff, is we tend to be every bit as competitive and the goal is to be superior in 2010.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from PJ Juvekar with Citi.

Prashant Juvekar

Analyst

Yes, hi, good morning. Couple of questions on AG. Given that ethanol pricing is down and is not profitable currently how does that change your outlook on Butanol?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

PJ, I think you are probably talking about ethanol in the US, is what that your question, PJ?

Prashant Juvekar

Analyst

Yes.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Okay, because ethanol is a big product globally and we are in focus just on the US. If you are counting ethanol out in the US, it is a good product. I think you are declaring death way too soon. As you know our butanol project, our first scope now would be to be from wheat and be in the UK, and we have already made a minor investment in a plant, so we can line up there. We're extremely encouraged about the progress we are making on cellulose to ethanol, of course, we are not just a great ethanol player except in selling seed to that, which we think will still be very profitable. But we are happy with our progress in cellulose to ethanol. We are very pleased with our progress in bio-butanol. We look forward on the 12 and 13 to kind of update you on specific time lines and plans for that. So, I don't want to preempt the work we will be doing there. But I don't see anything in this current situation in ethanol in anyway the tract... the fact is it just encourages us more to move faster. I have been in a couple of conferences in the last month where clearly the demand for cellulose to ethanol and bio-butanol have been the headliners and we just see some tremendous demand from our customers there.

Prashant Juvekar

Analyst

Okay. I mean, I am not declaring any death to it and all, I'm just pointing out that the profitability is down. But on to my second question on this agreement that you had with Monsanto recently, where you lowered the royalty payments and extended them into 2015, if you are confident about optimum gas rollout in 2010, I'm wondering why would you go all the way to 2015 in paying those royalties?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

PJ, let me be extremely clear. We are very confident about optimum gas in 2010, there has been nothing that happens around that to discourage us at all. This was a simple net present value calculation, because as you know we can't ramp up suddenly everything in 2010. It's going to take time. As we look at the economics, we think it makes sense for us and that's simply all there was. Absolutely no change in strategy.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Frank Mitsch with BB&T Capital Markets.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. A question regarding pricing in raw materials. Chad, you indicated that in 2008 raw material subside, you'll start to going to see some margin expansion. Your deficit right now in the third quarter was $0.03, you had $0.12 rose and $0.09 in higher prices, so $0.03. If you don't get raw materials subsiding you think you... when and if do you think you will be able to offset the higher raw materials with higher local pricing?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Well, Frank, a great question. The first obligation we got is to purchase better, smarter in better quantities, we're making progress there. The programs we have on yield and energy efficiency are very important to us. They're worth more to us that oil approach $90 per barrel, and so we see improvement to make our sell, but we've got, I don't know what all of our competitors have as far as the techniques for evaluating value and being explaining that to customers, but I know ours are really solid, and we've got to expand more and use them in all of the places but we are seeing is we are putting those skills and capabilities in our sales force and have the right incentives for those. We think we will be more effective in passing things along. I think it would be inappropriate to kind of judge what the net-net of that will, be because that's trying to incorporate too many variables. I would like to go back where you started. We're valuing these prices, we're not just pushers through a commodity. We have a few things like that but not very much. The good thing is when these things subside, and they will someday, and I am not predicting when, clearly, we're going to be able to capture value longer than folks that just push things on a formula basis. So, we are not predicting that, we're certainly not assuming that in 2008 that will be upside if it happened.

Frank Mitsch

Analyst

All right. Terrific, and then more specifically on one of the slides you indicated in the Coating section that you anticipated a Ti02 price increases in the fourth quarter being a benefit, how confident are you that that's going to occur, and can you talk about the order of magnitude and what regions you may see that occur?

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

Well, not so much on that later part, Frank, but really the point we needed to make is that the industry inventory levels were high, that has come down. These announced increases had been out awhile, and as you point out we have it as a plus variant on our fourth quarter outlook. So that's kind of how we think things are going there.

Operator

Operator

Thank you.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

We are not assuming an up-tick in US architecture, if that was behind your question, we are not assuming an uptake to get these price increases through.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Kevin McCarthy with Banc of America Securities.

Kevin McCarthy

Analyst

Yes, good morning. Jeff, your base tax rate has been drifting down throughout the course of the year. What is the base rate that is embedded in your outlook statement for 2008 earnings?

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

Yes. The base will be especially you can call it right now, we will continue to look at this at about 26% for 2008, Kevin.

Kevin McCarthy

Analyst

Okay. And then shifting gears to agriculture, if I may. You had an announcement in September relating to your accelerated yield technology for soybeans with an advertised yield benefit of 12%, quite substantial there, how quickly can you penetrate that technology from the 5 varieties you outlined for '08 into the 100 plus that you have in your portfolio.

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

It's early stage, it is quite dramatic step change in what we see in the lab, I think that to be straight up with you on that, Frank, it's about three to five years in our pipeline projections. Kevin.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Mark Gulley with Soleil Securities.

Mark Gulley

Analyst

Yes. Good morning. A couple of questions, first of all, you got a crack economics team at DuPont, guys, and I am wondering what they are saying about the bottom of the US housing market?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Mark, we do have a crack economics team, and if they fully knew that they probably wouldn't be working for us. It's really hard to call but as I said in my comments we are not assuming any recovery in 2008. I think that would be a very appropriate assumption. We model the inventory levels, the demand levels and so forth, and we could be wrong, there could be some intervention that would change that, but we're not assuming it, and that's why we are focused much more on, like this, new roof-liner product that I talked about and being sure we're taking the products like Tyvek and building the markets outside, including this personal protection areas.

Jeffrey L. Keefer

Analyst

I think, Robert and Bob, also another metric, Mark, that they look at it, inventory in the chain and I think their latest report I saw it's still looking at about... no new change of new homes of the value at month. So, that's I think holding back any optimism about a recovery.

Mark Gulley

Analyst

Secondly, you noted your fungus size were strong in Latin America, I assume, in soy in Brazil. A lot of anecdotal evidence about Asian soy rust in United States, it is anecdotal. Any feeling that that pest want to migrate here and if so would it represent a meaningful opportunity for your fungicide business in North America.

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

I can't say that there is any hard evidence of meaningful change in the crop this year with regard to that fungus this year, the disease. We do have the product offering ready to go as do a number of suppliers out, but I wouldn't say it's a sizable opportunity at this stage but we are ready if it does migrate.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from John Robert with Buckingham Research.

John Robert

Analyst

Good morning, guys. It seems like the 5% range in your guidance for '08 growth, the 5% to 10%, is it relatively narrow range in light of a log of uncertainty out there in the economy and the surging raw material cost. And you got, actually, a pretty long lead time in terms of when raw materials hit your P&L side. I assume that's going to be an early '08 issue for you as well. You have any thoughts why that range is so narrow?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

John, it's Chad. We don't know for sure, where we're going to fit, that's a range off where we finish this year, and so we got a range on what we're going to do this year. So, it's really a little large than 5% to 10%, you think the total spread. We just felt it important because we do have a pretty good view of the global economy to go in and say something, and give a sense of what that is, we're not trying to imply super accuracy, but that's our best judgment right now, and that's, again, what we can do based on the productivity improvements. What we see in our new product pipeline coming out. So, we are not trying to suggest that's what the overall economy is going to do or what necessarily our competitors are going to do, but we feel like that is a good set of guidance for planning purposes for '08, and as we see something early next year or whenever, it's different, we'll certainly update you. As you recall, we came out with a number about this same time last year and it held pretty to the year. It looks like it might be up slightly. I guess, we started at 3.15, now we are 3.15 to 3.20. So, we are up a bit, but... So, I don't want to say, we'll necessarily be that accurate again next year but our track record for one year is not too bad.

John Robert

Analyst

Do, you think the increased variabilization of your cost and your more aggressive pricing stance is kind of giving you better control over things?

Charles O. Holliday, Jr.

Analyst

Well, everything looks perfect, if you assume it's just going to project in the future. Right now, as basically as I said in my comments, we expect a continuation of '07 and '08 and with that assumption we think that 5 to 10 is not a bad number to be looking at particularly at this point in time. What I'm particularly pleased with are these yield improvement programs, the better sourcing programs and the sophistication we are putting into price across the entire company, and again the growth outside the US. If you can have a chance to just see the quality of people that we have hired in these emerging markets, they are second to none anywhere in the world, any country in the world. I am just pretty confident about what they can accomplish.

Carl J. Lukach

Analyst

Jackie, I think that does it for our call. We have run out of time. I think what we will do is end the call now and I'll thank everyone for dialing in. Remind them that we have the investor event on applied biosciences on November 12th and 13th here at Wilmington. As always the IR team is here to answer any follow-up questions that you have. Thank you very much for joining us today.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's DuPont conference call. You may now disconnect.