Earnings Labs

Dauch Corporation (DCH)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 2, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Crystal and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All the lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. And after the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jason Parsons, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Parsons. Jason P. Parsons - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, Crystal, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone who is joining us on the AAM's third quarter 2018 earnings Call. Earlier this morning, we released our third quarter 2018 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the Investor Relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services. You can also find supplemental slides of this conference call on the investor page of our website as well. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1-855-859-2056. Reservation number 3086665. This replay will be available beginning at 1:00 p.m. today through 10:59 p.m. Eastern Time, November 9. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified, and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, during this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures, as well a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

Rod Lache - Wolfe Research

Analyst

Hi. I had a couple of questions. One is just help us, if you can, bridge from the margins that you're doing now to what your objectives are for next year? So your EBITDA margins right now are roughly 15%. You're talking about 17% for next year. So presumably there's 200 basis points or on your revenue base maybe $145 million of net improvement that you need to get. And I would imagine that gross performance needs to be better since presumably you have another $50 million of freight and labor cost inflation into next year. So, can you just give us a little bit more color on how visible the specific actions are that get you to that 17%? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Rod, this is Chris. Good morning. I would tell you if you think about the full year of 2018 from a midpoint perspective the guidance we just gave lands you at sort of around 16% – between 16.25% and 16.5%. We're going to...

Rod Lache - Wolfe Research

Analyst

Right, right. But, Chris, you're not at 16% now, you're at 15%. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Right, right.

Rod Lache - Wolfe Research

Analyst

From where we are right now, that's what we're all looking at. So can you just help us from where we are right now to the levels that you're talking about next year? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Sure. If you look, for example, at our sequential adjusted EBITDA walk that we have in our earnings deck, we have approximately $38 million of, call it, launch and project related costs and operational inefficiencies. Substantially, all that will dissipate in the fourth quarter of this year, first quarter and second quarter of next year on a trajectory where it diminishes each quarter. You clear through those, that will get you very close to 17%. Yes, we have some tariff inflation next year that will go up. Yes, we have some material inflation that will go up, but some of this already in the numbers that you're seeing today. Those are your primary drivers...

Rod Lache - Wolfe Research

Analyst

Okay. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: ...plus you'll have some contribution margin on some additional volume and mix that comes into play. (35:49)

Rod Lache - Wolfe Research

Analyst

So the $38 million you're saying of launch and synergies and – just repeat that. How do I get that $38 million back? What are the specific things that you're changing; launch, premium freight? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: You have premium freight, you have some premium material cost associated with supplier cost, you have excessive scrap, you have excessive inefficiencies with our labor and our overhead. And as we fix those and correct those issues over the next couple of quarters, those will dissipate and go away.

Rod Lache - Wolfe Research

Analyst

Okay. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Hey, Rod, this is David. From an operating performance standpoint, we encountered lower OEE and FTQ performance at some of our business units. We also incurred incremental scrap than if we were normally dialed into a normal production launch. We had overtime, we had some outside processing. We're going to drive all those premium costs out of our business in the next several quarters here. In addition, as I covered with you earlier, program management was poor with respect to our Powertrain business unit, specifically the transmission technology side. We'll get all those issues fixed over several quarters. And then, we also were significantly impacted by a number of supplier disruptions, both on current production today where reputable suppliers can't keep up with the volumes they're (37:14) now impacting us, causing additional changeovers. At the same time, we had some supplier issues in regards to some of the new launches. So we've got the right teams deployed working with ourselves and the customers to get those issues taken care of. That also drove a lot of premium freight issue as extra cost both inbound and outbound. And then, and we're also – we're dealing with some – volumes were down a little bit with respect to our pass car and our CUV's program. We're making the necessary adjustments to right size our business to the new market demand there. And then, clearly, as you said, we'll deal with some of these inflationary and economic issues as part of our cost structure and the actions we need to take to address that going forward.

Rod Lache - Wolfe Research

Analyst

Okay. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Rod, I would also add two other elements, one particular for this quarter. We had an FX loss of our balance sheet mark that I referred to in my prepared comments. That was $5 million alone in the quarter. And then secondly, as it relates to our synergies, we will continue through our final step up of or synergy run rate to $120 million, moving to $140 million by 2020. So that also contributes to that margin enhancement.

Rod Lache - Wolfe Research

Analyst

Okay. And just two things, one is, did you say that the launch issues were unrelated to the K2 to T1, it's new plant. And secondly, the free cash flow that you're talking about, $1.5 billion from 2017 to 2020. You did $340 million in 2017. At 4% of sales, you'll do $290 million this year, so that's $870 million left, over $400 million a year still. Is that inaccurate in terms of your trajectory or are you thinking that that's more of a – is a much larger number in 2020 than 2019 because it sounds like you're slowing the rate of deleveraging? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: No, I would expect 2020 to be a little larger than 2019, but both years will be significant.

Rod Lache - Wolfe Research

Analyst

Okay. But the math is right in terms of what I'm subtracting in your adjusted free cash. So you still have $870 million of adjusted free cash over the next two years. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yes. Your math is correct.

Rod Lache - Wolfe Research

Analyst

All right. Thank you. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Thanks, Rod.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays Capital.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Yeah. I think we're going to beat the same horse. So want to talk a bit about, again, back to getting kind of granular what dissipates, but maybe start because it gives a sense of just kind of how deep some of these operational issues. How did the quarter unwind for you? When did you become aware of these? Did you think of doing a prerelease around some of these numbers? And then I'll kind of drill into some of the walks you talked about. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Good morning, Brian, this is Chris. Look, did we know 90 days ago? No. If we did, we certainly would have told you that. And as always when we provide guidance and outlook, we try to give you our best estimate in a timely fashion. And as I mentioned in some of my prepared remarks, given the size of some of these launches, given the speed and the high volume they are, they happened very quickly through the quarter. Obviously, as we worked through it, we had mitigation efforts. And ultimately, by the quarter, we're still working through a lot of issues and some of which we thought could resolve one way or the other. The obviously didn't. And we didn't know until the end of the quarter.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Okay. If you kind of drill into some of those drivers. So if I go again the year-over-year walk on page 10, material, freight and tariffs, is that just the raw inflation there or is it the premium freight due to launch and project and supplier issues in that $12 billion? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: So I would think about that $12 million, we have tariffs of about $2 million in that number. Material and freights would be more – think about it as economics related. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: And rate issues. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: And so freight rates, some...

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Right, rate issues. That's what I was getting at. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Premium freight and call it expedited freight and abnormal freight associated with our launches over some of our operational inefficiencies would be in the two columns to the right. So, for example, in the $30 million project and launch related costs, material, premium, freight associated, things like that, were almost a third of that.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Okay. And in terms of the launch cadence through first – the cadence for next year, how does that get better and how do you assume that you won't have on next year's launches similar issues? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. This is David. We're taking immediate action right now with respect to the program management side of things, especially on the legacy MPG facilities, particularly transmission technologies that I mentioned to you. So we're getting all the suppliers in to review what needs to be done, what capacity needs to be put in place and we'll get those issues taken care of, but it will take us a few quarters. And as Chris said, we'll grow into that performance over the next two to three quarters. With respect to the Driveline side of things, the biggest thing that we've got to do is just finalized with FCA, what the build out is of the 2018 program, what the startup is of the 2019 program, so we can ultimately plan our operations properly. They're obviously running at a very high demand right now. Want to get as many trucks out as they can. We're trying to satisfy that, while also trying to move equipment around, which is causing a little bit of disruption and extra cost in the overall business. So those are the bigger issues. And then, the other side of things is suppliers. We've got a number of suppliers that are negatively impacting our current production today that we've got to get resolved with our customers to get those addressed. And we also have a couple of suppliers that are impacting us with respect to launches. And we're looking, as I said in my earlier comments, about resourcing or in-sourcing some of that work to protect our continuity of supply and our supply chains going forward. But we're highly confident that we can turn these things around and turn them around quickly. It's unfortunate what happened here in the third quarter. No one is more disappointed than myself and our team, like I said earlier, but we're also convicted and focused on what we need to do to get these things fixed. And you guys know us as a strong operating team. We'll deliver the results. We just unfortunately had a bad hiccup or hurdle here in the third quarter and they'll sequentially get better as we go forward here.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

And about the Twinsburg, Bluffton, how do you get comfort that given those program management deficiencies, the business that came in wasn't just structurally underpriced even for an operation that could be run more efficiently. I mean how do you kind of parse it between we just didn't execute versus we priced it inappropriately, given even solid execution? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. The issues in Twinsburg are really capacity related. In regards to – the proper capacity was not put in the place to satisfy the various customers' demands that are there. So, we've already taken action to offload some work or add incremental capacity and equipment where it need be. I think those issues will take care of themselves relatively quickly as we implement the plans we've already got in place. So that's really Twinsburg. With respect to Bluffton, Bluffton really started with a leadership issue. And as I mentioned in my earlier comments, we ultimately released the entire management team associated with the transmission technologies business. We also released plant manager and some of the staff at the facility itself, because they were not forthright in regards to how they were planning the business and what the commitments were or were not to customers. And we've now faired it all that out. We've got the right AAM team with experience and they're fixing those operations right now around the clock. We've got suppliers and they're helping us deal with these matters as well. So I'm highly confident that we can get these issues resolved. There's nothing there that scares us or bothers us. The most important thing that we've done is, we worked with our customers to protect their schedules unfortunately at our expense, but at the same time, we've got an obligation and responsibility to our customers. And that's what we did.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

And I guess just to get similar to this micro level, which is helpful. So over on the RAM HD program, there is some talk that they might leave some operations in Mexico. RAM HD overall is gaining share in the market, good for Fiat Chrysler, but how much clarity do you need around where the volumes are and then actually where they're going to be produced before you can iron out some of the inefficiencies in Driveline related to that program? And then I have one more question. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Brian, two separate issues there. The inefficiencies that we're incurring right now on the operations are largely because of the increased demand they have in their current 2018 program and the lack of clarity that we have with respect to the build-out and the startup of the 2019 program. There's also some engineering changes, late engineering changes that we're managing our way through that's created some inefficiencies. But those are all things between us and FCA that we can get those resolved relatively quickly.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Okay. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Your first part of your question dealt with...

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Relocations (46:39) David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: ... the relocation, yeah, right now, the direction that we received from FCA is for us to continue with our plans. We've already installed the incremental capacity and volume and mix into our Mexican operations, and we plan on continue to supply that program out of Mexico. FCA is also revisiting their earlier announcement about do they move that heavy-duty to the U.S. or not because they're also looking to expand the total RAM program, both light-duty and heavy-duty, on volume. And Mexico is going to be an important part of that incremental production. So we still got to get clarity from FCA and what their final plans are, but in the meantime, they've been very clear to us that we're going to keep our business in Mexico.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Final question is around Casting and maybe this was just our model, but we actually had a $14 million EBITDA shortfall in Casting. You've talked a lot about the operational issues in Driveline and Powertrain. What's going on in Casting? And how do you – back to the first question, how do you kind of walk that, what looks to me like a $20-plus million drag over next year? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. We had made sequential improvement the last several quarters, but unfortunately we took a step back. The most important thing that drove the step back was just labor availability and shortages and then the attrition that goes with that labor. So we do not have what I would like to be a stable operating environment largely attributable to the lack of manpower that we need to properly run the business. We've covered with you guys earlier that there were some deficiencies earlier in regards to some of the maintenance activities. We've addressed a lot of that. There's still some of that that's lingering out there that we're dealing with, but most of that's behind us. The biggest issue that we're really dealing with is labor and then just some of the inflationary and economic issues associated with the business as well. So Mike, I don't know (48:38) Michael K. Simonte - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Brian, this is Mike. I think one of the other key elements that David – what it leads from what David just commented on is commercial positioning. And we have negotiated significant price increases throughout our portfolio of business in the Casting business unit. This was a critical action taken during the third quarter and you'll begin to see some improvement in the fourth quarter relative to pricing. By the time we get to the first quarter of 2019, we'll be able to push ourselves back into double-digits on the back of operational improvements, but also and importantly pricing to address these inflationary pressures that we don't see abating in that portion of our business.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Okay, okay thanks. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thanks, Brain.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC.

Thanks. Maybe just to sort of summarize some of the comments, particularly in the last round of questions. It sounds like what you're saying of the $50 some odd million year-over-year headwind, only about $10 million of it was what you call sort of economics related. So is your view that basically the rest of that through your internal actions is what you'll be able to offset over time? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yes. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Joe, yes. Absolutely.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC.

Okay. And then, maybe the disclosure and sort of the way you broke us down was the (50:15) is helpful between the three factors, but versus your expectations what was the biggest delta that showed up late? Was it the project and launch related costs? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: You mean versus our expectation coming into the quarter?

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC.

Yeah, sort of on a year-over-year basis like what – versus sort of what – because you're going to have the launch cost anyway, right. So I guess versus what you thought earlier in the quarter. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: So if you think about, Joe, more from a sequential basis, as we are coming into the third quarter, you may recall, we were expecting that some of our project expense cost to go down and it completely moved the opposite direction. So those two markets that we put on walk, our project and launch related costs and our labor performance from our core business would be not that we expect to come in into the quarter. Those are kind of the unexpected elements.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC.

Okay. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: And we knew we had some material inflation, some volume mix. It's normal for the quarter.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC.

All right. Maybe just on the brighter side of ledger, like on the 2019, the revenue guidance of plus up 1% at the midpoint and The Streets I think modeling down 1.5%. So I sort of hate to ask this question, but like we can all see the IHS numbers on K2 and T1 and can do the math. So would you attribute your better top line outlook to something that you think is wrong in those schedules or is it more from the backlog and the diversification away from GM trucks? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: It would be the latter. And keep in mind next year is a big backlog year for AAM. It's $600 million gross new business backlog. So we anticipate it to continue to grow our business. We still see that today.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC.

Okay. And then last one, the T1 launch is sort of starting in Fort Wayne, where I think GM is doing more of in-sourcing. I know for the overall program, you thought you get 65% of those pickups, but presumably we're below that at the start of the launch. So by when do you expect to sort of get up to that 65% ratio that that you've mentioned in the past? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah, that 65% transitions through all three of their platforms if they've got light-duty, heavy-duty and the SUV. So that will – specifically related to the light-duty, that will transition here over the next couple of months and quarters. And then, the heavy-duty, as you know, is ours in its entirety with the SUV.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC.

Okay. So the light-duty – your share of light-duty, if you will, sort of gets better here over the next couple of quarters as they launch some of the other plans and then the heavy-duty's come on and that's all you. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Correct.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · RBC.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

Good morning. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Good morning.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

Just going back to 2019 and trying to get a sense of the level of confidence you have in the step up of margins, so, maybe two questions to get at that. The first is, you mentioned that it will take us several quarters. So maybe just give us a little bit of a sense of the cadence in 2019. Is there some step up in Q1 versus the second half of 2018? And the second question to that is to what extent some of the fixes that you're expecting dependent on commercial negotiations, whether it's your customers or suppliers that have yet to take place? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: So, Itay, this is Chris. So, if you look at our earnings slide deck, this might (53:40) provide a little bit of insight into that, the last slide we have where we're depicting the fourth quarter. So if you think about sequentially third quarter versus the second quarter, we had issues of around $38 million associated with our project launch, performance and labor. We show in the fourth quarter that we are improving those or stepping those down, if you will, $10 million to $20 million in that quarter. I would expect as we get into the first quarter of 2019, we would then improve an additional $5 million to $15 million and in the second quarter, call it, another $5 million to $10 million. So where we dissipate that down to what is left with some residual inflationary items that we talk about such as utilities, some wage increases, et cetera. That's a high-level cadence in the first half of next year.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the commercial negotiations, is there some kind of a dependence on new agreements and economic transfers from suppliers or OEMs that you're kind of waiting on at this point or relying upon? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Itay, this is David. With respect to the Casting business, most of those contracts are already secured, agreements have been reached on all of them. We're just waiting for some final contracts, but those will be coming in. So those are pretty well done. In regards to any of the auto or the light vehicle side of things, we've just got to go back and review where we are with some of the economic issues around the tariff side, some of the utility issues, but those aren't completed at this time but there's dialog taking place.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

That's helpful. Just maybe I could sneak one last one in on free cash flow. I think the cash restructuring outlook for 2018 went up from the prior guidance. As we think about 2019 and some of the operational setbacks, should we expect more restructuring in 2019 in terms of how we think about the adjusted free cash flow and then kind of the GAAP cash flow? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: No. First, for 2018, at the beginning (55:39) guidance, $50 million to $75 million, we just tight that range to $60 million to $75 million, so it didn't – in our view, didn't go up. It's in line with what we expected. And then, for next year, as you know, we need to work through kind of the balance of our synergy piece as we're consolidating some of our facilities. And we've always said, look, we'll be about $1 for $1 in terms of synergy payment, so gross over that period $140 million through the whole integration phase. And as we complete – I think we had about $40 million last year and then what – we just talked about what we have this year. So that would put you somewhere in the range of $30 million to $50 million for next year.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Thanks, Itay.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Armintas Sinkevicius with Morgan Stanley. Armintas Sinkevicius - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Good morning. Armintas Sinkevicius - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: If I look at your leverage at 2.8 times and adjust for the fourth quarter, think about the amount we could see over the next two years, I'm getting to, call it, 2 – roughly 2 times by the end of 2020. So is it right that you're effectively pushing out your leverage target by a year? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: I mean that effectively aligns with the fact that it's our EBITDA – absolute EBITDA change here in the second-half of the year and as we build that back in the first half of next year, effectively that's what it does. So I sort of indicated that with our quarter to half a turn leverage reduction once we stabilize. So that's pretty much aligns us (57:08). Armintas Sinkevicius - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. And then, you mentioned with the e-Drive, that sort of fell in the bucket of launch costs and challenges there. Maybe you could talk to us about the launch of that e-Drive product and then discussions how they're progressing for future e-Drive awards? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yes. Armintas, this is David. The demand for the vehicles is very, very strong. Right now, there's supplier constraints with the OEM as well as with us. We are not the constraint to the OEM. We're working to break our own bottlenecks. We do have a couple of supplier issues that we're taking action to strengthen…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Great, thanks. It sounds like a good portion of the underperformance in 3Q was driven by softer execution at acquired Metaldyne facility, particularly Powertrain facilities. And I think manufacturing savings at the acquired plants were – a pretty good portion of the $140 million of synergies that you expect from the integration. So does the slippage in performance at some of the acquired facilities make you feel any differently about the synergy potential over time? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Not at all, Ryan. We feel very confident in our ability to hit the synergies that we communicated to you both at the $120 million level by the April 1 of 2019 calendar year time and $140 million level by the 2020 calendar year period of time. Clearly, there's work to do in some of those legacy MPG facilities, especially the transmission technologies on program management and operational systems, quality system, safety systems, other things. You guys know us as being a very good operating company. We just got to read the legacy – or the AAM operating system completely into the legacy MPG facilities and we'll get that done here. A good portion will be done by the end of this year, but all of it should be done by the middle of next year.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan.

I see. And then, just given that your fourth quarter outlook is well below the Street with a fairly large portion of the issues that arose in 3Q seemingly continuing into 4Q. And given also that you're introducing 2019 today that has an outlook that is above consensus and I don't know that you need such a strong outlook, but I think it would be great if you could share some examples of what gives you the confidence in the timing of sort of the sunset of some of these issues that arose in 3Q such that they won't prevent you from meeting the strong 2019 outlook. So for example, could you talk about maybe some of the issues that have already been resolved or what insight you have into them being resolved over what timeframe, et cetera? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Ryan, this is David. We're highly confident that we can resolve these issues by the end of the second quarter of 2019. As Chris indicated earlier, we're already making some improvements immediately and we'll see some of that benefit in the fourth quarter. We'll continue to make improvements in the first quarter. And then, we should be wrapping up the final changes that we need to do in the second quarter. So that's kind of the cadence. So we've guided at 17% for the full-year of 2019 and we'll grow into that with lower in the first half of the year and stronger in the second-half of the year 2019.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Okay. And then just a very final question. I know (01:01:56) given the large decline in the shares today and I know you're totally committed to delevering and that's very important, is there any thoughts and is there any flexibility that you might have – given I know you have high leverage, but a lot of the debt you're doing – you're paying down $100 million of the 2019 today. It isn't due until well into the next decade. Is there any thought to maybe allocating some portion of the free cash flow that you're guiding to over the next couple of years to perhaps share repurchase in addition or in balance with primary focus on debt paydown, of course? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Ryan, it's Chris. I'd first like to clarify, the notes that we redeemed are 2019 notes. They're due in basically 12 months. We had to take care of those one way or another within the next 12 months. This allowed us to capture some interest save through the process, reduce some of interest cost. But in the short term, we're continuing to be focused on deleveraging this company.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Good morning, guys. I just wanted to follow up on Ryan's question just on sort of the fungibility of some of the pressures you're seeing being included in your synergy numbers. I mean does that kind of mean – I mean because a lot of this sounds like it's focused in the MPG acquisition and some issues with controls and management there, but you're still saying you're hitting these the synergy numbers. I mean is there a potential significant upside in synergies? I mean as you think about sort of whipsawing back through these near-term issues and then still achieving what you're achieving there. I'm just trying to understand is there some double counting going on. Michael K. Simonte - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Hey, John. Good morning. This is Mike. No, there's no double counting. Let me remind you that of the synergies that we are accomplishing and have accomplished, roughly 25% of it was overhead and public company costs, which are long baked into the cake in terms of our run rate activity. The second largest amount of activity relates to the merging and bringing together of our forging businesses, which is performing quite well. David made the comment that our third quarter results, while there's some pressure around the edges on inflation and things of this nature, generally speaking, they hung in there and did a very nice job for us in that quarter. So it's really not the synergies per se that are the issues, it's the core operated performance in these facilities. It's the preparation for launch, the program management activities that exposed some of the operations to situations where they simply could not meet their commitments to the customers without premium freight, without outside premiums. And what we mean by outside premiums is going somewhere else to make portions of the product that we are due to shift to our customers that we should be making ourselves. These types of activities are what drove the premium costs. A number of the drivers of excess scrap, and this is responsive to your question as it is Ryan's question, a number of the drivers of excess scrap have been resolved. We track scrap on a daily basis, John. So we have a significant daily feedback on those operations and things are clearly improving there. So what David says and Chris says and now I'm saying that we have confidence that we're going to have a chance to turn this thing around and show meaningful improvement as early as the fourth quarter. It's because we're getting daily feedback on these operations.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

And when you talked about oversold capacity, I mean how do you deal with something like that? That sounds a lot more sort of structural, that's not just sort of a surprise. I mean I was surprised for you guys, because the MPG guys in transmission seem like they oversold capacity. I mean how do you deal with that? I mean, do you just got to throw capacity in or can you outsource that to somebody else? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. There's three ways, John. First is to try to improve the throughput of the existing capacity that's already installed. There's definitely some opportunities for us to do that. Second is – short-term is to offload some of that work or find supplemental supply that tends to be premiums associated with that or work that out constructively with our customers. And then third is to put incremental capacity in place, which tend to (01:06:01) take a little bit longer to do, but we're working on all three of those things right now.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

And then just lastly, as we think about the GM truck launch. I mean it's traditionally been a two year launch, so you get the benefit of your sort of expense in R&D and capacity shifts maybe more quickly, but it sounds like it's going to be spread over three years now. I mean they're doing something that's very good for their product cadence, but it might be a little bit deleterious to sort of the payback on your investment. Is that the right way to think about it or is it actually an easier thing for you to deal with and actually potentially a real positive for you. Trying to understand which way this cuts? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Their launch cadence is not much different than what it's been historically in the past. As we said, we are not having any issues on our T1XX launch. It's actually a bright spot and positive for us. GM is having a flawless and anonymous launch as well as starting at Fort Wayne and then they expand into (01:06:56) and other facilities going forward. We see it as being a positive for us and at the same time, we're seeing that they are getting positive reviews in the marketplace for the truck as well. And we hope they continue to just sell at or above the volumes that we've all forecasted and planned for.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much, guys. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Okay. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank, John.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

First of all, let me thank you all for joining us here this morning. Clearly, the third quarter 2018 was a challenging quarter for AAM. This is the first time in years that we have not met our expectations. And as you all know, our company is rooted in integrity and operational excellence and we're making the appropriate corrective actions to stabilize our operation to the levels that you know and expect. While this will take us some time, a few quarters, I'm fully confident we will recover these issues and continue to make progress on achieving our long-term goals. We look forward to providing you an update on our progress in the upcoming months. And I'd like to thank all of you for your continued interest in AAM. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.