Earnings Labs

Dauch Corporation (DCH)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 3, 2018

$5.71

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Jennifer and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jason Parsons, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Parsons. Jason P. Parsons - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thanks, Jennifer, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's second quarter 2018 earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our second quarter 2018 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the Investor Relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services. You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the investor page of our website as well. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1-855-859-2056, reservation number 4958648. This replay will be available beginning at 1:00 PM today through 11:59 PM Eastern Time, August 11. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties which cannot be predicted or quantified, and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, during this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures, as well a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available on our…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from Brian Johnson with Barclays.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Yeah. I just have a little housekeeping around the commodities, directed-buy and then a question on NAFTA. The housekeeping, just two quick things. Can you just clarify directed-buy? Does it mean that you're just getting – sorry, they send you a certain steel mill and you pay the OEM rates, or kind of how does that work? That's the first question. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Brian, good morning. This is Chris. As it relates to a directed-buy component, this relates to, in particular, some of our commercial vehicle platforms outside of North America. But in this context, think of it as a safety critical item, such as a brake, which was directed by the OEM for us to put onto our components for which they pay us essentially cost plus a very nominal amount just simply to insert that into our assembly process, and then pass that along to them.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And by additional, do you mean it's a bigger portion of your mix, or just the price of those that you're passing through went up because of commodities? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: No. We see just simply higher volume associated with that.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Second question, then, also around the metals is – I get, then, how the sales guide go up, EBITDA dollars stayed flat, which therefore, the percent EBITDA margin goes down a touch. You maintain, now, your adjusted free cash flow guidance, 5%. Is that just rounding because that's an imprecise number, or are there other improvements in free cash flow? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. No. Our guidance there is approximately 5%. And if you think about the sales change that we had, it was – 5% of that number is, I would call it – you used the term, rounding, but it's very similar, potentially the same as we were previously.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Second kind of big group sort of a question. We've read in, The Wall Street Journal's read in that – and there was news flow this week coming out of Canada that one potential direction NAFTA could go is around the Trump's administration's demand for 40% of content in NAFTA vehicles being from high wage locations. I guess the question is, kind of how would that affect your Mexican operations, if at all? Have you kind of begun to kind of talk to the OEMs or been involved in that lobbying policy process about how this might work? And if it goes in that direction, high wage content, does it do anything in terms of, for example, the axles going up to Flint, Fort Wayne and Arlington, or the axles that in the future will go to Warren Truck in terms of removing the risk of tariffs on those? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Brian, this is David. All of our pricing in the commercial ranges that our customers are based on the current tariff legislation and, if those tariffs are to change, then clearly, we'll have to have discussions with each of the customers, respectively. At the same time, you know that we try to produce our product as close to the assembly plant as possible because of the size of our products. So, we would have to talk to each of our customers about their plant and product loading initiatives, and then we would look to try to align with them as best as we possibly could, but address that appropriately and individually with each of the individual customers. With respect to our voice, yes, we've talked to our customers in regards to their thoughts, but right now, we're not receiving any direction from them at this point in time. They, like us, are really waiting to get clarity on policy. Once they get clarity on that, then we all have to make adjustments. The other thing I would say is that we're members of OESA and MEMA, and – from a supplier community standpoint and they represent and speak on behalf of a lot of the supply base.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Thanks, Brian. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, Brian.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Ryan Brinkman with JP Morgan.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Great. Thanks for taking my questions; a couple on some of the new truck launches. So it seems that GM has quite recently begun the transition to the new T1 full-size program. I know it's early, but how would you assess the launch of this program, so far, based on your earlier experience? What are your latest thoughts in terms of how your volume and margin are likely to track for this important program? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Ryan, this is David. We don't see any changes to what we've communicated to you earlier and what's included in our financial projections for the year. We are solidly prepared and ready for the launch and engaged in the launch. Our launch is going well. GM's is going well, also, so we think we're both locked and loaded to have a very successful launch going forward for T1.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then, the follow-up is on another truck launch. So, at your Investor Day, you listed yourselves as having major AAM content on the Ram 2500 and 3500, and we've understood that for a while. Maybe it's come via more Metaldyne, but you say you have significant content still on the Ram 1500. That vehicle was discussed on Fiat Chrysler's recent earnings call and elsewhere; might be off to potentially more problematic launch than, say, the Silverado/Sierra, which is, as you say, on track. Did that impact your business at all in 2Q, and how should we think about the launch of the Ram impacting your second half versus first half results? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. Any impact on the Ram 1500 series of launches really negligible to our financial performance; at the same time, on the Ram HD launch, that launch is latter part of the year, first of next year between the two organizations. And again, much like GM on the T1XX, we're solidly prepared to support that launch with FCA and in deep communication with them in regards to launch readiness. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: And Ryan, this is Chris. As you know, we called out on our year-over-year sales walk, there was some downtime on the Ram Heavy Duty that impacted our revenue in the second quarter, but that was aligned with their previously communicated change and replace.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

I see, helpful. And then just, I guess, very finally on program launches and overall, anything to update on e-AAM? I know you've got your first launch this year and any changes to your backlog or customer conversations, et cetera, going forward? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. No changes to the backlog to announce at this time, but we are working on a significant amount of opportunities, as we covered with you all at the Investor Day. We're right in the middle of our launch of our P4 solution in Europe out of our Poland facility to support a luxury European OEM. That's going very well, getting a lot of attention in the marketplace. And we're knee deep in the development and preproduction phase for the launch that will take place in 2020 for the P3 solution.

Ryan Brinkman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Very good. Thank you. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Hi, Joe.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

First question is on the solid improvement in the Castings business. I think, originally, you were aiming for maybe something like 12-plus in the back half, but I think the improvement has been a little bit better than we expected. So is there any change in the trajectory there or sort of what the – what we could eventually get to in that business? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: No. Joe, last quarter we were at about 9% from an EBIT standpoint. We had guided that first half of the year we'd be in the 10% to 12% range. We finished at 11.1%, so right in the middle of that range. And the second half of the year, we're expecting continued improvement as we continue to optimize and improve the overall operation. So, everything is still solidly in place to what we communicated to you before.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then, Chris, I know you mentioned working capital benefit in the back half of cash flow. It looks like it needs to be pretty sizable. Is there any color you could just give us on cadence between the quarters? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: No. I mean, if you think about – go back to the first quarter, Joe, of this year, sizable working capital consumption as we've cycled up from our sales trend down in the fourth quarter. We've built inventories, again, here in the second quarter as we're entering into launches. So, you will see those items essentially flip through the second half of the year. And generally, especially from a receivables standpoint, heavy collections come in tail-end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. And we also have items such as rebillable tooling associated with these large launches that we would collect near the tail end of this year.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. And just finally, so net debt to EBITDA is back below 3, 2.8, less than I guess one turn left to hit your 2 times target by the end of 2019, which you set, I guess, all the way back in 2016. So, now that we're a little bit closer, can you just talk, again, about that target, the confidence of hitting it, and maybe how much we should expect that to come from the denominator versus the numerator? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Joe, this is Chris. Look, we continue – as we talked about again at our Investor Day, our objective here is to get to 2 times levered by the end of 2019. I would expect we will contribute both to the numerator and denominator. We'll continue to see EBITDA growth as our sales continue to grow, and we'll continue to generate free cash flow that will reduce our net debt. So, we continue to remain very strong and optimistic on that target.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Itay Michaeli with Citi.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thanks. Good morning, and congrats. Maybe as a first question, just – Chris, I was hoping we could do more of the puts and takes into the second half of the year, things like backlog contribution, perhaps project expense and kind of – maybe even a bias in terms of the range of margins and revenue just given the strength you saw in Q2. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. From an EBITDA perspective, I believe is which the focus of this question is, think about some of the puts and takes from that perspective. We'll continue to have backlog launches, continued through Q3 and Q4. At the same time, we also are converting over to the next gen full-sized truck for General Motors. I would expect we'll continue to have a reduction in project expense. Our casting operations will continue – if you think first half, second half, should continue to be strong. And then, we'll continued some synergy step-up as we go through the third and fourth quarter from where we are today, as we achieve our objectives from that perspective. Probably a little bit from a take perspective, obviously, metal drags a little bit on us. As you know and as I mentioned in some of my prepared comments, we got a little, call it, upward pressure on freight costs associated with that; and then, any unusual FX activity, especially as we get a little bit more uncertainty around the globe in terms of FX rates. And those will be kind of the main drivers.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Great. That's helpful. And then, just as a – a kind of two-part follow-up, first, just any thoughts on the cadence of margins in the second half? And then, also on CapEx, I know you were kind of running, I think, below that 8% in the first half of the year. How should we think about the second half in the context of the full year guidance? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. For CapEx, right, just below 8% first half of the year. I would expect that to be pretty consistent over the next couple of quarters associated with that getting closer to that 8% target perspective. And then, in terms of just, in generally, quarters, obviously third quarter revenue will be a little higher than fourth quarter; you got some production days associated with that.

Itay Michaeli - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Great. That's very helpful. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thanks, Itay.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Armintas Sinkevicius with Morgan Stanley. Armintas Sinkevicius - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. Earlier in the year, you talked about quoting activity and, historically, you pace at 25% to 30% of that is converted over. Just wondering if you had any color commentary around how the quoting activities were progressing halfway into the year? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Armintas, this is David. We said that we've got $1.5 billion of new and emerging opportunities that we're working on right now. We are making very good progress in line with what we said our expected hit rate or win rate would be. We're not announcing anything from a backlog upgrade at this time, but we are winning the appropriate business that we're going after based on our historical hit rate. Armintas Sinkevicius - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. And then, second quarter, gross margins were quite nice. I know we've had a couple of questions here on margins, but with the launch costs fading, do those trend higher or sort of flat from here as we think of the rest of the year, just launch costs coming off, but then any other puts and takes for third, fourth quarter? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. I would think very similar to some of the EBITDA commentary I just previously mentioned as we look into the upcoming two quarters. Our sales, just the back half by nature, lower production days, will continue to decline, project expense will continue to decline. Some improvements, obviously, as I mentioned both our casting operations and our synergies, where previously some of you saw some of our synergy attainment more heavily focus on the SG&A side of the house, which is now converting more into the manufacturing operations side of the house. So that obviously impacts gross profit a little bit. I'm (35:28) those are some of the major puts and takes. But, again, with the second half of the year when you got lower revenues, you get lower fixed cost absorption, which has an impact on margins. Armintas Sinkevicius - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, gentleman. Your last question comes from John Murphy with Bank of America.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Good morning, guys. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Good morning, John. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Good morning, John.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Just a first question on R&D, I mean, I think and if I heard this correctly, it was down to $34 million from $41 million last year. That's about a 50-basis point decline relative to sales. I mean, is that something that's just sort of a timing issue or do you think that you've been through sort of a big spend here and you might be able to ease off? Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: No. John, this is Chris. You get a little bit of a timing issue with that in terms of cadence with certain programs and projects that the R&D group is working on. You also get a little bit of timing associated with certain customer recoveries in that area as well. It was just timing. We continue to be in that $40 million a quarter range, I would expect in the near term, associated with R&D.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then, just a second question on asset sales. I mean, is there anything else in the portfolio as you are kind calling through what's going on with MPG and the core company that might be a candidate for an incremental asset sale? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: John, this is David. Nothing to announce now, but as we said the last call and at the Investor conference, but we're clearly assessing our portfolio, looking at what's core and what's noncore, and at the appropriate time we'll communicate that effectively to the market.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. And if I could just sneak one last quick one on the GM truck cadence, traditionally, the SUVs would come right after the pickups, but it looks like pickups are this year, HD is next year and SUVs are 2020. Does that change anything? Does that make it smoother or easier or better or worse for you in the cadence of that changeover? David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: It doesn't really impact us either way. We're in solid position to support all three launches.

John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. David C. Dauch - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thanks, John. Christopher John May - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, John. Jason P. Parsons - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, John. And we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's conference call, and you may now disconnect.