Michael R. MacDonald
Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets
Thanks, Doug, and good morning to everyone on the call. We increased our sales by 7.7% this quarter despite recording a negative 2.4% comp. We were disappointed with our first comp sales decline after 14 consecutive quarters of comp store growth. Much of the country experienced one of the coldest starts to spring this year, which contrasts sharply with the some of the warmest temperatures on record in the first quarter of last year. We responded very quickly and decisively to this dramatic turnaround in weather. We adjusted merchandise receipts in weather-affected categories early in the quarter. In April, we also intensified our messaging relative to assortment and value in the sandal category. These actions allowed us to minimize inventory imbalances while still supporting categories that were less weather-affected. One of DSW's strengths is its nimbleness in adjusting to changes in its business. We demonstrated that strength in Q1. When the weather opened up at the end of the quarter, all categories improved. But the weather-sensitive categories strengthen the most, probably reflecting some pent-up demand. Performance by category was mixed, again primarily as a result of weather. Comparable sales in women's footwear declined by 6%, driven by a double-digit decline in the sandal category. Bright spots within women's included the entire casual footwear segment and boots, which had a big percentage gain on a relatively small dollar base. Men's footwear continued its momentum with comparable sales growing by 8% on top of last year's 7% growth. The men's business was healthy in all classifications except for sandals. Athletic footwear recorded a comparable sales decline of 1% in the quarter. Once again, performance athletic outperformed fashion athletic. And accessories was our strongest business, posting an increase of 11% in the quarter. All subcategories contributed to this excellent performance. Finally, sales of private brand merchandise grew to 12% of our mix compared to 10.8% in the first quarter of last year. Growth in DSW.com, which is included in our comp sales results, remained healthy throughout the quarter, although our sandal business online was not immune from the unfavorable weather. During the quarter, we opened up 12 new DSW stores, bringing our store count to 376 at the end of the quarter. We remain on track to open 25 to 30 new stores for the year. Stores already opened this year are operated from 1 week to 7 weeks in the first quarter. And so far, these stores' collective performance is exceeding our plans. We continue to make progress on the jewelry business, which is being tested in 25 stores. The weekly sales volumes in this new category continues to grow as more and more customers become aware that we actually have it. Once we implement certain systems support for this business, we will roll it out to additional stores most likely beginning in the first half of next year. Now let me say a few words about our luxury test. As you can tell from Doug's remarks, this test has not produced the results we'd hoped for. Based on our actual experience to date, it appears that DSW does not have the ability to sell-through a luxury inventory investment of the size we made over a reasonable timeframe and at acceptable margins. Our efforts over the balance of the year will be focused on reducing our luxury inventory to a level that is consistent with our demonstrated rate of sale. We still believe there are significant nonfinancial reasons for being in the luxury business. However, our future approach to a luxury category will depend on our ability to buy the right mix of products in quantities that we can digest and at costs that will allow us to at least breakeven in this business. Turning to systems, our initiatives fall into 3 broad areas: supply chain, customer service and omnichannel. In the supply chain area, we continue to be encouraged by the evidence we are gathering from the size optimization system that we implemented in mid-2012. Eventually, this system allows us to be smarter in the way we allocate sizes by store. In the first quarter, we achieved increases in our in-stock rates by size, particularly in fringe sizes. This is one measure of the effectiveness of the size allocation improvements we are making. Ultimately, we expect to be able to demonstrate improved regular price sell-through rates and lower markdown rates as a result of this system. Also within the supply chain area, we continue to work on assortment planning, which will improve our by-store assortments relative to end use, fashion, price point and brand. As I always say, this is a very large initiative that will be in development through 2014 with benefits not beginning until 2015. There are also 2 systems enhancements that will improve the experience we deliver to our customers. E-certificates will allow us to electronically retrieve customers' unredeemed reward certificates at the point-of-sale. Eventually, we will do away with paper certificates altogether. Both our customers and our associates appreciate this new capability, which is currently operating in 2/3 of our stores and will be in all stores by the end of the year. Later this year, we will upgrade our point-of-sale system to facilitate ringing transactions on mobile devices, electronic retrieval of customer receipts and sending electronic receipts to those customers who prefer them over paper receipts. We believe these enhancements will also improve the customer experience. Finally, in the omnichannel area, we have 2 initiatives underway. In the second half of this year, we expect to activate our charge-send system. This system will allow us to find a wanted shoe from the fulfillment center or one of our stores regardless of whether the customer is shopping in a store or online. All stores will have shipping capability and the wanted footwear will be shipped free of charge. This capability will result in fewer lost sales and happier customers. The other omnichannel project we're working on is our dropship system that will allow us to offer customers footwear styles that are actually housed in our suppliers' warehouse. This capability will allow us to expand our assortment without investing in the inventory or the space to support that broadened assortment. We expect to have our first vendor up on dropship by year end. As you can see we have a lot going on that will enhance our ability to deliver even more effectively on our brand cornerstones of a breathtaking assortment, irresistible value and simple convenience. Finally, I'd like to discuss our expectations for financial performance in fiscal 2013. We're now projecting comp sales in the range of flat to plus 2% growth for the full year. Excluding any impact from our merger with RVI and our luxury test, we're estimating earnings per share of $3.40 to $3.60, which compares to last year's $3.35 per share. We estimate the cost of our luxury initiative to be approximately $0.30 per share for the full year, of which $0.25 was realized in the first quarter. This past quarter was a bit tumultuous. We endured unprecedented weather swings and we experienced disappointing results from our luxury test. Through these challenges, our base business remained strong and our formula remained the most compelling game in town. We have plans in place to improve our effectiveness, our footprint and our market share. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator to open it up for your questions.