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Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 30, 2014

$82.60

+0.33%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone. Welcome to Diebold Incorporated's Third Quarter 2014 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Vice President and Chief Communications Officer, Mr. John Kristoff. Please go ahead, sir.

John Kristoff

Management

Thank you, Kim. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Diebold's third quarter conference call. Joining me today are Andy Mattes, President and CEO and Chris Chapman, Senior Vice President and CFO. Just a few notes before we get started. In addition to the earnings release, we've provided a supplementary presentation on the investor page of our website. Andy and Chris will be walking through this presentation as part of their comments today and we encourage you to follow along. Before we discuss our results, as of past calls, it's important to note that we are excluding certain restructuring charges and non-routine expenses from our non-GAAP financials. We believe that excluding these items gives an indication of the company's baseline operational performance. As a result, many of the remarks this morning will focus on non-GAAP financial information. For a reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP numbers, please refer to the supplemental material at the end of the presentation. In addition, all results of operations reported today, including prior periods, exclude discontinued operations. Also as a reminder, some of the comments today may be considered forward-looking statements. Internal and/or external factors could significantly impact actual results. As a precaution, please refer to the more detailed risk factors that have previously been filed with the SEC. A replay of this conference call will be available later today from our website. For those listening to the replay, please keep in mind that the information discussed is only current as of October 30, 2014, and subsequent events may render the information in the replay out of date. Finally, I did want to quickly announce that we will be holding our Analyst Day in New York on December 10. We will be providing additional details around our Diebold 2.0 turnaround program as well as our outlook for 2015. Please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team for more information. And now with opening remarks, I'll turn the call over to Andy.

Andy Mattes

Management

Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining the call today as we discuss our results for the third quarter. As usual there are several items I will be covering today: First, I'll provide key takeaways from our strong third quarter; second, a regional update; third, an update on our Diebold 2.0 turnaround strategy; and finally, our outlook for the remainder of 2014. Now let's discuss the key takeaways from the quarter on slide 7. This was another solid quarter for Diebold as we execute on our turnaround strategy and continue to see results from our transformation efforts. Taking a closer look at the performance, I was pleased with healthy revenue growth of 9% year-over-year; each of our lines of business grew in the quarter with financial self-service up 5% and security of around 3%. Brazil others was also a strong contributor. Our financial self-service business continues to perform well, particularly in EMEA, where we have been able to grow above the market rates. Gross margin performance was strong due to a favorable geographic and customer mix in the quarter, combined with the benefits of our prior restructuring activities. Our cost savings initiative and subsequent reinvestments are tracking in line with our expectations. As we have discussed before, we are investing in IT and back office transformation, service infrastructure, R&D and sales and marketing. Heading into the fourth quarter, we have already achieved our 2014 full year goal of $25 million in net savings. Outside of the financial results, we continue to generate positive operating momentum. We had a number of new customer wins related to branch transformation, managed in professional services, as well as electronic security, on which I will elaborate more later. Bottom-line, we are winning in our markets and growing presence. We remain keenly focused…

Chris Chapman

Management

Thanks Andy and good morning everyone. I will start off by walking through our third quarter financial performance and then provide an update on our 2014 revenue earnings and free cash flow outlook, now to review our financial results. Turning to slide 15, total revenue for the quarter increased approximately 9% on the GAAP and constant currency basis. As a result of increased volume across all regions expect Latin America, which was down slightly due to a decline in the security business, as I noted in the second quarter call we expect our Brazil other business which consists of lottery, IT and election solutions to be a strong contributor for a revenue growth for the full year. As we move to slide 16, financial self-service revenue was up 5% on both a GAAP and constant currency basis with growth in Asia Pacific and EMEA partially offset by a decrease in Brazil. As we have noted EMEA continues to perform especially well posting solid revenue growth over the prior year. In Brazil, the decline was driven by lower volume due to timing based on customer delivery expectations. Total security revenue on slide 17 was up approximately 3% compared with the prior year period. Electronic security grew 14% driven by strong growth in North America offsetting this increase was a 12% decline in our physical security business. Looking at slide 18, Brazil other was up $34 million mostly driven by deliver on the large lottery order placed in 2013. On slide 19, gross margin for the quarter improved 1.3 percentage points to 26.2 %. This was driven by a solid improvement in service gross margin which increased 1.4 percentage points to 30.4%. This improvement reflects the continued benefits of our service transformation efforts across the globe. As I noted last quarter, some…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll go to our first question from Gil Luria of Wedbush Securities.

Gil Luria - Wedbush Securities

Analyst

Yes thanks for taking my question, if you wouldn’t going through the detail for Brazil other revenue and profit for this year and I know you are not going to provide 2015 guidance but how much of that do you expect to fall off next year. So we know how to properly model next year at least in that regard. That seems to be a very big factor.

Chris Chapman

Management

Gross margin Gil this is Chris, just to break down the major pieces of Brazil others so year to date the Brazil other is at approximately $175 million revenue, I expect that to be around $220 million on the full year the major pieces of that been around $100 million in lottery and $120 million in the IT related equipment. So it’s about a $40 million increase from where we were at on the last call. And so if you think about that, moving into 2015, I would expect that to fall off a little bit North of the $150 million we talked about before likely closer to $170 million fall off. But again I would know, and you can see it here in the third quarter as well that’s a little bit of a lumpy business going forward to model for 2015. I would expect that to be approximately $50 million if you are looking at the go forward estimates.

Gil Luria - Wedbush Securities

Analyst

That comes in at a pretty high profitability level if I recall so that 15% and that’s about a $0.30 earning that we have this year that’s not going to come back next year. Is that right?

Christopher Chapman

Analyst

Both of those product lines are accreted equal I would say it’s somewhere between 10% to 15% and again you’ve got a lot of factors in terms of timing of when you purchase the inventory potential currency headwinds a kick in that but, I would say if you model little bit South of that closer to a 10% blended drop rate that’s probably a little more appropriate.

Gil Luria - Wedbush Securities

Analyst

Got it. And then wanted to ask about new 5500 line you are saying first, new product line in the long time. What kind of advantages you start about lower total customer ownership for the customer. What kind of a financial advantages overtime that will it offer Diebold in terms of the cost of maintenance and then gross margin.

Andy Mattes

Management

Gil this is Andy. Good morning a few things that will make this a very important milestone for the company it’s actually the first time that we developed a product for the international market. In the past the company used a U.S and that adopted it to international needs. This time put it the other way around. So therefore it’s you towards the customers, it will help the customers to drive it lower total cost of ownership because we’ve taken all the Green ATM capabilities that we’ve already released with our India machine a few months back and now they are standard for the complete international market product line. If you are looking for the Diebold’s benefits just to put it for you in terms of complexity, the product probably has about 30% lower skew number count than its previous model. Now you think of course, you’ve got to wrap them out, you got to do make sure you get the volume you going to switch over factory but in the long run this will drive again the idea of efficiency productivity and then the last point is which is also a first for us we’ve put a lot of money on the R&D side into the service ability of the machine which will help us to continue to drive our services focus in the regions and which will also help us to generate the service margins in North of 30%.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll move on to our next question from Kartik Mehta of Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research

Analyst

Hey good morning. Andy you talked about strength in North America and I think you said the regional bank market or maybe you said that Chris. I am wondering if this kind of a one-time strength or based on quarter do you think we’re filing to a point where you could see the regional bank market getting better.

Andy Mattes

Management

So this years has been good in the regional space and just sit back, if you think about our U.S business it’s really the tale of two different stories. Our national account business is still recovering from the loss of two of the largest banks in the U.S. that the company had experienced some years back. Our regional business however has been steadily regaining momentum, if you are looking for a magnitude, I’d say those on the orders and revenue side year-to-date were like double-digits in that business. And if I look at our pipeline, it is especially encouraging if I look at the new projects around branch transformation, innovative ideas, managed services a lot of interest in the regional space. So, we’re cautiously optimistic about that segment of the market.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research

Analyst

And then Andy, EMEA had a very good quarter and if you look within EMEA is there a particular region that’s providing the strength or is it that all the regions are growing about the same for you?

Andy Mattes

Management

Let's go back, the biggest key to our restructuring in EMEA that we got out of the - we’re going to be everything for everybody in every country, we’re having a very clear major account focus and the good news here is that especially in the UK and Spain which have been able to win new accounts and we see business ramp up. While the markets like in South Africa where we always held a very strong position or in France our business continues to run at very high level.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research

Analyst

Andy just lastly, I know you gave guidance about a year ago. Since then obviously some good things happen and something’s that you didn’t anticipate have happen. As you look back now heading into 2015, how do you feel about where Diebold is both from an operational standpoint and management talent standpoint to take you to the next level?

Andy Mattes

Management

As I said in my conclusion, we’re a company in transformation, we’re not transformed. We’ve done a lot of foundational work for the company; we’re getting closer to the end of the crawl space of our turnaround program, we’re starting to eye-walk [ph] and that switchover will come and with that earlier around the middle of next year. So, we feel very comfortable and confident with the progress that we’ve made year-to-date, we brought some great talent into the company, but by the same token we still have a lot of heavy lifting in front of us and we’re not probably back, quite contradictory and we got to make sure we continue on our path to execute every quarter and get things done to lay the foundation right for the company and with the solid foundation a lot of good things can happen in the mid to long-term.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) and we’ll move on to our next question from Paul Coster of JP Morgan.

Paul Coster - JP Morgan

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks very much for taking the questions. Andy first on branch transformation obviously it's very much focused on self-servicing side bricks and mortar environment. Have you seen any sort of adverse on CV and it's really not routinely available, are the banks really committed to the - so they still in sort of pilot phase, what was your assessment of the transition towards that technology?

Andy Mattes

Management

That’s a very fair question Paul. As the underlying driver is the banks are trying to reduce labor cost in their branches while remaining in the neighborhood making sure they can square that equation and doing all of that while keeping a very good customer service. So, the only way you kind of get there is to automation. So everybody wants to go there, everybody is trying to figure out how do I do is and most importantly if I use technology to do this, how do I differentiate my offering from the guy down the street. So, we’re seeing a lot of interest, a lot of momentum. But as I said earlier, this is not something that’s going to happen overnight, this is not a consumer product, this is an enterprise solution and it will roll out over the next 10, 12, 16 quarters and every one of those banks is going at their own pace, going at their own deployment rates for the year. But we see branch transformation to be a solid tailwind for our industry for the next two to three years to come.

Paul Coster - JP Morgan

Analyst

Okay. Just switching to security some of the very impressive job of bringing on the electronic security platform, the physical security businesses is declining at a percentage is that an intentional acts, for instance are you raising sort of the bar on that business demanding a higher return on investment turning away business in the physical security space?

Andy Mattes

Management

The electronic security business, we are a system integrator, we are hardware agonistic and our focus is all around the solution all this is why the secured u is so important because you can connect to our services without having to do a forklift upgrade of our whatever equipment you may have installed we are focusing very much on the profitability of those orders we don’t grow our business for revenue sake. And the other things as we see a lot of growth in the commercial space so for instance this quarter we were able to land a very meaningful quarter with Sprint which again will drive the ball further down. Now the physical security side this is a business that is declining at a steady pace but it’s going to, the decline is probably going to flatten out as we go forward and it provides a solid base for solutions with the bank especially think around drive up solutions that type of stuff and we’re maintaining this business for as long as we can.

Paul Coster - JP Morgan

Analyst

Okay last question on the electronic security side I believe you are still investment mode there when does that business send profitable. What you think in isolation the sort of operating when it’s reaching the charity?

Andy Mattes

Management

We haven’t disclosed bottom line numbers of that business. But I can assure you it’s already profitable today and more volume will make it even more attractive to our bottom line.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll move on to our next question from Justin Bergner of Gabelli & Company. Justin Bergner - Gabelli & Company: First question is regarding financial stock service revenue I mean as you think about the tail winds of bank branch transformation and headwinds of may be some windows seven upgrade revenue ceasing into next year. At what time do you think we’ll start to see acceleration in your financial soft services revenue or order profile?

Andy Mattes

Management

Short of given guidance for next year. Take a look at where the market is at that, probably most reputable market research Company in the space is RVR. They are predicting a 4% to 5% unit growth CAGR between 14 and 19, revenue it’s usually probably a point below that because unit count is driven very heavily by growth in the emerging market and our objective is clearly to continue to grow at least at market rate. Justin Bergner - Gabelli & Company: Okay that’s helpful. My second question relates to free cash flow. It’s seems like the free cash flow outlook is being maintain but there might be some headwinds on the inventory side been offset by slightly lower CapEx I guess is that view correct and then second part of that question is it possible to quantify how much working capital been observed by the higher Brazil other revenue, than earlier anticipated?

Andy Mattes

Management

I’ll take the first part of that Justin and I may have to get back to you on the second part just to quantify that think about that a little bit, but your overall assumption is correct if you look at where we were at, growing company consumes capital and if you look at our performance in the third quarter from a free cash flow again we had a very strong end of the third quarter from a revenue standpoint and that means some of that revenue you are not going to necessarily collect on and so you going to have a higher receivable balance and as I noted as well. We’ve taken an inventory position on the Brazil other moving into the fourth quarter and so if you look at the activity that cycle repeats itself going into the end of the year. I could see it that we may end a little more on the lower end of our free cash flow range but overall I feel very happy with our underlying working capital metrics in that performance and you can match change in what were happening, in our free cash flow is really just driven by the demand and the business and to your last part of that question that’s probably about if you look at the Brazil other as we head into the fourth quarter the total impact of that probably close to 30 million approximately as what we’re carry into that and so again the timing of that revenue and moving that inventory will dictate some of that final free cash flow performance for us.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instruction]. And we’ll move on to our next question from Matthew Lipton of Autonomous Research.

Matthew Lipton - Autonomous Research

Analyst

Hey guys good morning. A quick question we’re talking about branch earlier transformation earlier and I think it’s pretty obvious that regional banks are still dealing with their real space footprint. So the orders that you’re seeing, like conversations are starting to have - at the high end the in branch kiosk your branch performance series or is it more standard remote positive cash rate yen is maybe with the [indiscernible] account there services and how the software really fits into the conversation is it - the new agilest platform of the card or to looking elsewhere for software and which looking at you on the product side right now?

Andy Mattes

Management

As probably yes to all three of your questions, because there is every one of those regional banks has a different starting point. The good news is we’re getting questions on all three elements. The first question is the color replacement and the additional functionality that you can put on the machine, which lands themselves more to the higher end of the product portfolio. You have some of the regionals that have not embrace deposit yet. So that is going and the agilest software as well as the service offering that we have out there, especially in that space, are very attractive. Just think about it we’ve got 22,000 machines under management in North America alone, if you take a look the next largest bank network would be Bank of America, I think they have roughly 16,000 out there. So, the fact of the matter that we can offer economies of scale to a smaller financial institutions that are at par with the bug guy with a very attractive value proposition and we see many branch transformation conversations started form that angle as well.

Matthew Lipton - Autonomous Research

Analyst

So still very much in the conversation they are trying to - people just putting it all different products not necessarily gravitating the one solution go ahead?

Andy Mattes

Management

The market is so early stage even give a definition out there by the resource guys what all is in branch transformation or not, some people define it more loosely than others. So, we’re actually very much looking forward to the research guys defining swim lanes and once those are out, we can then start reporting our success in our progress along those swim lane. But until then it's a fussy picture.

Matthew Lipton - Autonomous Research

Analyst

Got it. And then Chris, you didn’t talk about FX at all in the call, I am just curious to the 7% given the visibility you have into the business mix from the orders in the fourth quarter. How much of an FX headwind given where currency is moved in September is contemplated in that guidance in the fourth quarter? Thanks.

Chris Chapman

Management

There is a small amount of a currency headwind, I would say in terms of when we finalize our forecast we did factor in some of the recent movements in the rate, but again you’ve seen a little bit more of a pressure specifically in the Brazilian - specifically on the Brazilian real. Overall, when I look at our business from an overall currency standpoint, I feel very good about having a nice large global service presence which helps to insulate us from some of those currency movements giving, we’ve got the revenue and in our cost of line in the same currency. So, overall right now I would say to the guidance small amount of pressure, we’ve had about 25 year-to-date mainly in the FSS base and that’s almost all been between Brazil and India and so those are the major movements we’ve seen so far.

Operator

Operator

: And that conclude today’s question-and-answer session. At this time I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. John Kristoff.

John Kristoff

Management

Actually I think we have one more question it looks like Kim.

Operator

Operator

We will take this question from Meghna Ladha of Susquehanna International Group.

Meghna Ladha - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst

Thank you. Thanks for taking my question. Chris for the gross margin it did improved quite a bit sequentially, how much of it was related to Brazil? And directionally how should we think about both the product and services gross margin as we leave 2014?

Chris Chapman

Management

Yeah, if you look at the product gross margin first in the quarter that was really driven by the regional bank space in North America along with Europe and Latin America, so there is not a lot of Brazil other impact in that when you look at only year-over-year basis. If you think about our product gross margins on a full year, I would model that as approximately 19% given where we’re at, on the service side I did outline a little bit on the call, year-to-date I think were right at the 30% mark and I expect the full year to end right at that same level.

Meghna Ladha - Susquehanna Financial Group

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And now I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. John Kristoff.

John Kristoff

Management

Thanks Kim and thank you everyone for joining us on the call this morning. As always if you have follow-up questions please contact me directly and thanks again for joining us.