Stefan Krause
Analyst · JPMorgan Securities
Yes, thank you, Anshu, and good morning to everybody. I would suggest that we turn to Page 2 of the presentation, which starts and gives you an illustration of our capital position. Anshu already talked you through the background of our equity raise, but let me provide some further color. The equity raise announced yesterday is embedded into -- like Anshu said already, into a comprehensive capital plan. But the view to CRD IV is important to optimize our entire capital structure until 2019 to reflect regulatory requirements. First, we have seen a period of very strong organic capital build from a Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio of below 6% at the beginning of 2012 to a ratio now of 8.8% by the end of the first quarter of 2013. Second, after adding more than 280 basis points organically, we now add approximately 70 basis points to our ex-rights issue, which takes our pro forma fully loaded Basel III ratio from 8.8% to approximately 9.5%. With 9.5%, we are already now covering the Core Tier 1 minimum capital requirement, as well as the capital conservation buffer and the G-SIB requirement, which only becomes effective in 2019, which means that we meet this requirement already 6 years ahead of time. With our announced third measure of the package, we will also strengthen other elements of the capital structure. Our current capital structure, as per the first quarter, encompasses 3.9% hybrid Tier 1 and 1.7% Tier 2, aggregately in excess of future CRD IV requirements. To manage the transition, however, we anticipate issuing EUR 2 billion in the form of additional Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital instruments over the next 12 months, equating to an increase of our current total capital ratio of more than 50 basis points. Such issuing will not only allow us to transition to a CRD IV capital structure but will -- also will help manage our leverage ratio and, as Anshu said, improve our resolution planning. If we go to Page 3, Page 3 shows you the development of our pro forma Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio since December 2012, again, illustrating our strong improvement of more than 280 basis points, which we achieved organically, and then the extra uptick of targets through our ex-rights issue, leading to a pro forma Core Tier 1 ratio of approximately 9.5%. Our strong momentum to date, including the further capital supply measures announced, put us in a position of strength vis-à-vis regulatory requirements and also position us very well in our peer group. With 9.5% already now, we have a very clear and visible path to our long-term target of 10%. In fact, with only 50 basis points to go, we have gained further flexibility to take market opportunities as we keep unlocking capital from our non-core unit and building capital through earnings. So let me move to the quarterly results. And I will start to say, within my time at Deutsche Bank, this has been now the most straightforward quarter I've had. For the first time in many quarters, there are no current issues that require special attention. So I will focus barely on the presentation of the group and the segment results. And for that, let's go to Slide 5. So on Slide 5, I just would like to highlight now that we've introduced a post-tax return on average active equity metric. And the reason we provided this number to you is to give you the ability to track our performance against our target of greater than 12% for the group. This quarter, it actually stands at 12.3% annualized. The leverage ratio is currently 21x. It is our ambition to further improve this ratio. After taking the capital issue off the table, we will now focus on balance sheet optimization and balance sheet efficiency going forward. On Slide 6 now. For the group, you can see that we reported a pretax profit of EUR 2.4 billion then net income of EUR 1.7 billion. The pretax profitability in the Core Bank was EUR 2.6 billion. The Core Bank's post-tax return on today's average equity is 16.5% annualized, so as you can see, very well ahead of what we anticipate in the future it to be. Our full year target is greater than 15% for the Core Bank. I'll talk more about this later in the presentation. And let's turn to Page 7. And we can see the revenues were broadly stable year-over-year. The revenue environment for each of our business continues to be challenging. I think Anshu referred to this. We continue to face, obviously, the distortions caused the extraordinary monetary policy needed to support global growth, the impact of fiscal consolidation both here in Europe and the U.S., and the effects of a very low yield environment depressing our activities, which obviously are more dependent on interest income level. Despite this challenging environment, if we adjust the first quarter 2012 for the impairment of our now disposed Actavis holding and the impact on both periods of the Abbey Life gross up and CVA/DVA effect, revenues would have been only slightly down year-over-year. On Page 8, you see our provision for credit losses that for the first quarter was EUR 354 million, an increase of EUR 40 million from the prior year's quarter, with lower provisioning levels in PBC being partially offset by a single one-off event in GTB. Our solid provisions for credit losses in Q1, we see, are higher compared to last year third quarter. We do not see any trend deriving from this. Our Q1 provisioning levels are in line with our plan for the current year and, overall, remain very low. So let's move on to the interesting topics on cost on Page 9. You see, on a reported basis, our costs are down EUR 370 million, or 5% year-on-year. On this slide, we also show you our adjusted cost base, which excludes the effect of cost-to-achieve, policyholder benefits and claims, litigation impairment of goodwill and other severances and other disclosed one-offs. And this field basically aligns our external disclosure with the way we manage our cost internally. On this basis, expenses are also down 5%. We are pleased to report this decline in noninterest expenses because it does reflect our renewed focus on cost management and cost discipline at the bank. However, we continue to focus our attention on investing in longer-term process and efficiency improvement as part of the Operational Excellence Program. Therefore, we expect that in the near future, due to the irregular CtA timing, movement in the recorded cost base don't give much often indication, just as a note of caution when you do your plan. General and administrative expenses declined by EUR 368 million or 12% year-over-year, reflecting the more disciplined cost management and lower litigation expense, which more than offset the increased cost-to-achieve. Compensation and benefits declined by 3% year-over-year. Within this, compensation, excluding variable compensation cost, is 4% lower, mainly as a result of the headcount reductions made in the second half of last year. Variable compensation costs have increased 3% as the impact of lower deferred award amortization in 2012 will only become pronounced in the last 3 quarters of this year. Please note litigation expense was only EUR 132 million in the quarter. This amount would have been substantially higher. But as a post balance sheet event, we recorded EUR 592 million as 2012 charges rather than as first quarter charges. We therefore should not assume Q1 litigation expense to be any indication for our run rate of 2013 -- I must say regretfully, yes. The timing and size of litigation expenses going forward is unpredictable. However, we have assumed continued headwind from litigation on our budgeting and capital planning for the next couple of years. Let's move on now to Page 10. There, you can see how we're making progress on the Operational Excellence Program. This quarter, we only spent EUR 221 million on the Operational Excellence Program, by our full year plan is EUR 1.7 billion, as we had communicated previously. Our CtA is released, obviously, on an initiative-by-initiative basis. We have good visibility on the remaining EUR 1.5 billion planned for the last 9 months of this year, more than EUR 1 billion of this amount attributable to confirmed initiatives or initiatives in execution. The remaining amount has been detailed or validated already. So this year, it's expected to be the peak year of costs associated with the Operational Excellence Program. But in Q1, we saw low expenses that we expect to ramp up over the next quarter. And then also, the net savings will become more visible then in 2014 and 2015, as you can see from the chart, when the investment starts to taper off. Let's turn to Page 11. You see the profitability here. We are on a faster start than last year. As you can see, pretax profit increased by 28% year-over-year, while net income increased just 18% due to the higher effective tax rate in the quarter. As I mentioned earlier, for the first time, we are showing a post-tax return on average equity of 12%, as you can see. Also started at this quarter, average equity is allocated to the business on a fully loaded Basel III basis. This means the allocation of capital is now consistent with the communicated capital and return on equity target we set in our Strategy 2015 plan. For the full year 2012, we have, therefore, allocated an additional EUR 5.9 billion out of Consolidation & Adjustments. As you might expect, the effects are most pronounced in CB&S, whose average equity increased by EUR 3.6 billion, and in the NCOU, which received EUR 1.8 billion of additional allocated equity. And there is, by the way, a slide in the appendix which details some of these charges, if you have further question about this reallocation. On Page 12, the now very famous Page 12 that we have been tracking for many quarters, here you can see how well the capital ratios have improved. Obviously, this chart is still under Basel 2.5 before tracking to Basel III on, obviously, the subsequent pages. We finished the quarter with a Basel 2.5 Core Tier 1 ratio of 12.1%, 70 basis points higher than at the end of the fourth quarter 2012. The increase in our Core Tier 1 ratio is a result of our Q1 net income, as well as the continuation of our successful derisking program, which I will talk more about later on. With regard to our Tier 1 ratio, let me put 2 things into perspective. This ratio, which only a few years ago was managed to achieve a target of greater than 10% and to 8% to 9% before that, now stands at 16%. And this is under the more stringent rules of Basel 2.5. And actually, looking at our capital raised, it stands even at 16.7% and our common equity Tier 1 ratio at 12.8%. In other words, on a like-for-like basis, we more than doubled our capital ratio over the last 5 years, meaning since March of 2008. So let's review the capital and risk-weighted asset development in the quarter a bit more in detail on the next slide, which is Page 13. Our regulatory capital increase is mainly driven by net income, which added EUR 1.7 billion to our Core Tier 1 capital by smaller movements through reductions in capital deduction items and FX effects offset by our dividend accrual and other smaller items, as you can see here on the chart. We achieved a reduction of approximately EUR 9 billion in Basel 2.5 risk-weighted assets in year end. This primarily reflects the Basel 2.5 effects of our derisking program on credit risk RWA, which is largely achieved by asset sales and hedging and, to a lesser extent, by parameter recalibration. These reductions are partly offset by moderate increases in market risk RWA. Let me move on to Page 14, which we -- now I'll move to the Basel III framework. And as Anshu already said to you, our fully loaded Basel III pro forma Core Tier 1 ratio for March was 8.8%, comfortably above our set target of 8.5%. Starting from Basel 2.5, we first see a EUR 61 billion with further [ph] asset increase in relation to Basel III in the phase-in case, which is EUR 13 billion than what we recorded at year-end 2012, mainly attributable to increased clarity and more precise application of the proposed rules in Europe, as well as the further CVA hedging. Moving on to the fully loaded case, we then see a EUR 6 billion risk-weighted asset reduction as the 10%, 15% threshold comes down. And hence, more DTA are deducted and no longer risk-weighted. On the capital supply side, phase-in rules allow us to apply capital like [indiscernible] additional Tier 1 capital such as hybrid first so that our recorded Core Tier 1 capital will actually increase. Our pro forma Core Tier 1 ratio with phase-in will, hence, be 13.6%, far above all regulatory requirements. In the Basel III fully loaded scenario, all deductions would be against Core Tier 1 capital, and we would see a EUR 19 billion capital decrease compared to the phase-in scenario. These EUR 19 billion of deductions relate mainly to goodwill intangibles, as well as deferred tax assets, but also to items such as our net pension fund asset, CVA, minority interest and other. This gets us to a pro forma Basel III Core Tier 1 ratio on a fully loaded basis of 8.8% per month -- month end, and to approximately 9.5%, as our capital measure announced yesterday. Let me now turn to Page 15. Let me give you an update on our capital demand, which we first spoke to you about in our Investor Day last September. At that time, we committed to a Basel III risk-weighted asset equivalent reduction of about EUR 90 billion, as you remember, and we've said that this will happen over the course of the second half 2012 and the first quarter of 2013. We subsequently increased our target to greater than EUR 100 billion. And now with EUR 103 billion risk-weighted asset savings since June 2012, we have fully delivered on our targets. And I would like to summarize our measures today as the accelerated derisking initiative is coming to an end this quarter. First, about 60% of our RWA savings have been achieved through asset sales and hedging, with outright sales contributing the clear majority. We then had a reduction in our VaR multiplier, which was approved by the BaFin from 5.5 to 4.0, driving another 11% of the reduction. Here, you should take note of the recent BCBS report on market risk, where you can see that our reduced multiplier is still conservative when compared to peer average and significantly above the minimum 3.0 required under the Basel rule. The rollout of BaFin-approved advanced model contributed a further 13%, and I can almost say only a further 13% as we increased our advanced model coverage in line with our German regulation to meet a minimum 92% coverage ratio by the end of 2012, notably one of the most stringent requirements of any regulator. Improved process and data disciplines, including the recognition of netting agreements on collateral received, as well as other improvements in our data infrastructure, contributed a further 17%. We understand that there are some of you who are concerned about risk-weighted asset reduction for model. So let's again assume that all modeling changes we implemented under close watch of our regulators, by the way, would be taking back. We would only lose EUR 13 billion of our EUR 103 billion risk-weighted asset reduction, which -- basically, would mean that we would be still needing our EUR 90 billion target we set ourselves and we would still exceed our 8.5% ratio target. So in the first quarter 2013, we saw all asset sale/hedging-related reduction now only coming from our non-core unit, which will remain a source for continuing reduction in capital demand going forward. For the core businesses, however, we did not see and do not plan any net risk-weighted asset reduction. Going forward, a good amount of the capital relief generated in the NCOU will be redeployed into the core businesses to support the 2015 strategic objective. So in the coming quarter, you should not expect the magnitude of risk-weighted asset savings in over the recent quarters to continue, but capital to be freed up on a much more moderate basis and, as I stated, redeployed for growth and opportunities in the market. So let's turn now to the segmental results briefly on Slide 17. I'll start with CB&S. The first quarter 2013 saw a significant improvement in market sentiment and increased risk appetite compared to the second half of 2012. However, CB&S revenues were down 4% year-on-year due to the absence of LTRO-driven liquidity in the prior year quarter. After a strong January driven by sustained risk appetite, capital markets activity tailed off in February, reflecting concerns over the U.S. sequester and Italian election. Before picking up again in March, as fears of a global slowdown faded on strong economic data. With this environment, CB&S continues to operate at low-risk levels in the first quarter of 2013, maintaining VaR levels in line with year-end 2012 and with, by the way, no negative trading data in the quarter. Year-over-year, our Basel 2.5 risk-weighted assets are down 16%. Noninterest expenses were materially lower in the -- than the prior year quarter, which was really a significant achievement, with the reductions in both compensation and non-compensation costs reflecting solid progress on the Operational Excellence Program. On restructuring, we have now materially completed the 1,500 headcount reduction announced in CB&S and in the related infrastructure functions. On Page 18, you can see that the first quarter 2013 debt sales and trading revenues compared well with the previous year despite less favorable market conditions due to the absence of LTRO-driven liquidity, as I said, and a slowdown in activity in this quarter. As a part of our 2015 strategy announced at the 2012 Investor Day, we've now integrated our GFFX and our rates and credit rating businesses into a single fixed income and currencies business in order to realize further efficiencies of scale. Global liquidity management saw revenues down significantly year-over-year primarily due to a very strong first quarter in 2012 when the businesses benefit from lower rates, resulting from the access market liquidity driven by the LTRO. Rates and flow credit revenues were lower as strong performance in credit, especially in U.S. and Europe, was offset by weaker revenues in rates driven by lower volumes in Europe. FX saw another quarter of record volume, but revenues were slightly down year-on-year due to the lower volatility and ongoing margin pressure. DB, by the way, was ranked #1 in the Greenwich FX 2012 ranking. Credit solution revenues were higher year-on-year driven by increased client demand, reflecting increased risk appetite and a general rally [ph] in Asian credit market. On Page 19, you can see our equities revenues that increased year-on-year, driven by strong cash equities and derivatives. Revenue of cash equities are up year-on-year, supported by positive market sentiment and a solid performance in electronic trading, reflecting ongoing investment in this business. Cash equities also benefited from a strong performance in the EM business. Even with lower business of volatility, derivative revenues were also higher, driven by the better performance in Europe and especially in Asia. Prime Brokerage revenues were in line with the prior year quarter, with increased global balances and revenue growth in APAC, reflecting the ongoing strength of our franchise in that region. On Page 20, I turn to Corporate Finance. Global Corporate Finance fee pools were in line with the prior year quarter, with strong capital markets in the U.S., offsetting declines in Europe and Asia. In the first quarter 2013, we maintained the record global market share that we achieved in 2012. In EMEA, we are ranked #1. Higher year-over-year revenues in equity and debt origination were offset by lower year-over-year revenues in the advisory business. First quarter 2013 was a challenging quarter for the advisory business as lower fee pools were exacerbated by a record low yield count. The fee pool was driven by a small number of large deals. However, our advisory pipeline looks very solid and is significantly up versus the same time last year. Deutsche Bank EMEA market share increased across all ECM and DCM products from full year 2012 except for investment grade loans. On Page 21, we'll talk now about our Global Transaction Banking. As you can see, the income before income taxes in GTB was EUR 309 million in the first quarter 2013. Revenues remained stable compared to the prior year quarter, both from fee and interest income. On the one hand, we remain challenged by the progressive decline in interest rates and compressed margin. But on the other hand, we've been able to compensate returns through monetizing our deal pipeline. This quarter was adversely impacted by an increase in our loan loss provisions primarily attributable to a senior client credit event in Trade Finance. In general, though, we do not observe any broader deterioration of the credit counterparty risk across the portfolio. Compared to the first quarter 2012, Trade Finance continued to benefit from high demand for financing products. Trust & Securities Services came under pressure due to the aforementioned low-interest rate environment. Cash Management benefited from a strong deposit volumes. So let's go to Page 22. Our AWM is off to a good start this year, I can really say, in both its operating performance and its continued execution in integrating our various Asset & Wealth Management businesses. Revenues, excluding the Abbey Life gross up, increased by 4% year-over-year. More favorable equity markets, improving fund flows and positive asset mix shift from defensive to more actively managed product drove the revenue increases across all of our products. The reported IBIT of EUR 221 million includes EUR 40 million of cost-to-achieve related to the Operational Excellence Program. The compensation and benefit savings from the first phase of our restructuring program executed in the second half of last year are largely overshadowed by the variable compensation effect I mentioned earlier in the presentation. Lastly on AWM, I'm happy to report positive net asset flows, with more than EUR 6 billion of inflows across wealth management and asset management -- Anshu already referred to this, which compares favorable to outflows of EUR 8 billion in the first quarter of 2012 and EUR 22 billion in the full year of 2012. And last but not least, let's move on to Page 23, our Private & Business Clients business that achieved a very good result in the first quarter with a reported IBIT of EUR 482 million. Revenues continued to be challenged by the low-interest rate environment. And the ongoing integration of Postbank is also evident in the expense space. Adjusting the reported IBIT for cost-to-achieve, as well as for PPA effect, the IBIT would have been approximately EUR 650 million. The improvement year-over-year is primarily driven by a continued reduction of risk cost and increased credit product revenue. We have been successfully growing our loan businesses, especially in German mortgages, and have benefited from extended margins in other European countries. Lower deposit revenue due to the near 0 interest rate environment are somewhat offsetting the positive trend. Advisory Banking Germany achieved a rebound compared to the second half of 2012, benefiting from lower-risk provisions and higher revenues. Sales activity over the past 3 quarters has developed positively. New mortgage business volume have reached record levels, and investment revenues have picked up considerably. The year-over-year IBIT decrease was driven by several nonoperating effects, cost-to-achieve and an intangible impairment this quarter which masked the otherwise growing profitability. Advisory Banking International reported a very good result, increasing IBIT year-over-year. The business division continued its solid performance in Southern Europe despite the ongoing prices and benefited from a higher HuaXia contribution. Consumer Banking Germany posted a strong result, benefited by increased credit product revenues and strict cost and risk discipline. As already announced at the Investor Day last year, cost-to-achieve related to Postbank integration will now be reported as part of the Operational Excellence CtA from 2013 on. Overall, CtA spend has already increased year-over-year. And as already seen in previous year, CtA will most likely significantly increase in the second half of the year. And I can also report to you that the Postbank integration continues to be well now on track. On Page 24, we have our Consolidation & Adjustments piece. As you can see, the pretax loss in C&A was EUR 255 million this quarter compared to a loss of EUR 432 million in the prior year quarter. The more favorable development was primarily attributable to lower negative revenue effect from valuation and timing differences. The variance in mid- to long-term U.S. dollars-euro spaces spread had significantly smaller impact on the mark-to-market valuation of our position. In the prior year quarter, these effects amounted to negative revenues of approximately EUR 320 million. By this quarter, they were negative EUR 160 million. Additionally, the widening of credit spreads on our own debt, produced a mark-to-market gain versus a loss in the prior year quarter. Noninterest expenses also include a lower bank levy accrual year-over-year. Finally, let's turn to the development of our Non-Core Operations Unit. As I mentioned earlier the derisking in NCOU has been a key factor in the group's organic capital bid story. During the first quarter, we successfully reduced Basel III risk-weighted asset equivalent by EUR 50 million primarily through the sales of securitization assets and the final disposal of the Structured Credit Portfolio and other bond portfolios that were originated by Postbank. Together, these disposals resulted in a Core Tier 1 ratio improvement of approximately 30 basis points after taking into account the pretax operating results for the quarter. Favorable market condition allows us to sell these assets at or above carrying value, resulting in incremental mix gains from this derisking activity. And revenues improved quarter-on-quarter primarily due to the favorable market conditions, which had a positive impact on market and CVA, while underlying costs remain stable. So finally, I come to my last page on Slide 26. We had laid out an ambitious plan to reduce Basel III risk-weighted assets from EUR 141 billion at June last year to approximately EUR 90 billion at the end of March 2013 in the NCOU. And I can really -- and I'm pleased here to announce that we have achieved this milestone. The 28% reduction of balance sheet asset requests a 35% reduction in Basel III equivalent risk-weighted assets of EUR 3.2 billion of capital accretion since June 2012, when these assets were assigned to the NCOU. This include the EUR 2.3 billion cumulative pretax operating loss, since the 30th of June 2012. Our EUR 15 billion Basel III risk-weighted equivalent savings was achieved primarily from derisking activity with the following notable transactions: approximately EUR 5 billion in relation to the commutation of specific CB&S positions held with the monoline insurer together with the disposal of the underlying bond portfolio. Further savings from derisking of other IAS 39 assets accounted for an additional EUR 2.7 billion reduction in Basel III risk-weighted assets. And by the way, you can see in the appendix the gap between our book and fair value on our IAS 39 portfolio was reduced to EUR 1 billion. Then we had approximately EUR 3 billion from sales of the structured credit and high-yield portfolios within our Postbank business. I can't confirm that we'll remain on track to achieve our target of EUR 80 billion of Basel III risk-weighted asset equivalent by year end, but we expect the pace of reduction in assets and associated capital demand to lessen over time. With capital accretion in the forefront of our decision-making process, we will continue to evaluate the rationale of exit versus fault to take advantage of market condition and to optimize and protect shareholder value. And we continue our progress on derisking during the second quarter as we have reached an agreement to sell our legacy U.S. commercial real estate portfolio that we inherited with our Postbank acquisition. We expect this transaction to close this quarter and to deliver a further Basel III risk-weighted equivalent reduction of approximately EUR 2 billion. So thank you very much for your attention. And we're looking forward to your questions now.