Earnings Labs

Dana Incorporated (DAN)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 29, 2013

$37.46

-2.65%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.71%

1 Week

+1.97%

1 Month

+5.19%

vs S&P

+3.02%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Dana Holding Corporation's Third Quarter 2013 Webcast and Conference Call. My name is Jennifer, and I will be your conference facilitator. Please be advised that our meeting today, both the speakers’ remarks and Q&A session, will be recorded for replay purposes. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to begin the presentation by turning the call over to Dana's Director of Investor Relations, Craig Barber. Please go ahead, Mr. Barber.

Craig Barber

Analyst

Thank you, Jennifer, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Presenting this morning will be Roger Wood, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bill Quigley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Also with us this morning is Mark Wallace, Executive Vice President and President of our Light Vehicle Driveline Technologies. As always, copies of this morning’s earnings release and our presentation have been posted on Dana's investor website. Today's call is being recorded, and the supporting materials are the property of Dana Holding Corporation. They may not be recorded, copied or rebroadcast without our written consent. Today's call will also include a Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Today's presentation includes some forward-looking statements about our expectations for Dana's future performance. Actual results could differ from those suggested by our comments here. Additional information about the factors that could affect our future results are summarized in our Safe Harbor statement. These risk factors are also detailed in our filings, including our annual, quarterly and current reports with the SEC. I will now turn the call over to Roger Wood.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Thank you, Craig, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report another quarter of strong operating performance for Dana and to spend to some time with you this morning to help you understand how we see the rest of the year unfolding in our 3 end markets. For the third quarter of 2013, we recorded sales of $1.7 billion, while net income for the quarter was $68 million and diluted adjusted earnings per share were $0.47. We improved our adjusted EBITDA margin to 11.9%, an improvement of 90 basis points over the third quarter of last year. And this is the second time this year that we've posted margins near 12% in this low-volume market. We continue to execute on our share repurchase program in the third quarter, redeeming our Series A preferred shares and launching an accelerated share repurchase program. In total, we've repurchased more than 34 million shares and returned about $780 million to shareholders since we began this program about a year ago, executing on our tenacious commitment of shareholder value creation in the company. In 2013, our end markets have not produced as expected, which means we will adjust our expectations for the year and we remain cautious on volume for next year. A few of our end markets around the world continue to be challenged, requiring us to flex our operations as we navigate them and simultaneously secure new business that will drive our future growth. So turning to Slide 5, we'll highlight a few of these opportunities. We've continued to focus our market-driven technologies to secure new business, much of it launching in 2015 and beyond. One example of this is our thermoplastic cylinder-head cover assembly, which a Japanese automaker has sourced for its entire V-6 program globally. This lightweight solution improves fuel economy,…

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Thanks, Roger, and good morning, everyone. Slide 10 provides a summary of Dana's third quarter 2013 financial results. Third quarter sales totaled almost $1.7 billion, $46 million lower when compared to last year. As we have highlighted over the course of this year, this quarter reflects the last of the year-over-year impacts of Light Vehicle Driveline program roll-offs and the divestiture of the off-highway leisure products business, which was completed in August of 2012. In the current quarter, these items accounted for $33 million of the comparison, while currency further lowers sales by $46 million. We will review in further detail end market impacts across our businesses. Yet, as Roger indicated, positive year-over-year demand principally in the North American light vehicle and South America commercial vehicle markets were largely offset by further weakening in India, Venezuela and in Argentina, as well as continued weakness in underground mining equipment demand impacting our off-highway business. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $198 million compared to $190 million in the third quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 11.9%, a 90 basis point improvement compared to a year ago. In light of a weak demand environment across a number of end markets, our operations continue to flex our manufacturing cost structure. In addition, pricing and other actions offset ongoing inflationary pressures in South America, including the recovery of the impacts of the first quarter Venezuela devaluation and certain insurance recoveries completed in the quarter, bolstered adjusted EBITDA performance compared to a year ago. Net income totaled $68 million compared to $56 million a year ago, an increase of $12 million. In addition to higher adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, lower depreciation expense and higher equity income of about $10 million in total was partially offset by higher interest expense…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is from Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Just wanted to dive a little bit deeper into some of the margin performance, particularly in commercial vehicle and off-highway, on a year-over-year basis in commercial vehicles, EBITDA is $7 million higher but the top line was $6 million lower. I guess, I'm wondering is that -- is it fair to look at it year-over-year? Should we look at it more sequentially there? Or what's going on? And is that sort of performance sustainable amid what looks like it might be some continued weak volume.

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Yes. Joe, this is Bill Quigley. On the commercial vehicle front, if you look at Slide 13, I think you're referring to, we do provide the year-over-year comparisons. We think that, obviously, is a good basis for comparison. On the performance line, you'll note that segment EBITDA was up about $2 million. And in my comments, I did refer to -- that we've been chasing a pretty significant tax recovery in Brazil and we were fortuitous enough to complete that tax recovery in the quarter. That provided about $2 million or so, if you will, of that segment EBITDA performance. But I think, overall, on a year-over-year basis, we're certainly seeing some pressure as we move into the fourth quarter. We've lowered our expectations with respect to the North America Class 8 production environment. So certainly, sequentially as we move from the third to the fourth quarter, we're going to see some continued pressure there from a margin perspective.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

And then on the Off-Highway business, the $11 million lower EBITDA on $27 million lower sales. I mean, that -- it looks like the decremental margin picked up. So have you taken out or delayed costs as much as possible? Or was something unusual there?

William G. Quigley

Analyst

No, what you see there, certainly, is a very high decremental margin of about 40% on that volume and mix, largely driven, quite frankly, by the impact of an underground mining and the related aftermarket sales associated with that segment of the market. Very high contribution margins. From a cost perspective, they're continuing to take cost out of the business. You can see on the performance line, up or positive improvement $3 million year-over-year. But again, the contribution margin associated with that particular segment is pretty high and impactful to the off-highway business.

Joseph Spak - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And any preliminary comments about some of the -- some of these end markets for 2014, particularly in mining. I mean, you mentioned that it looks like it could be tough still in the fourth quarter. Should that begin to bottom out in '14 in your view? And then similarly on ag, which has obviously held up, is there the potential for that to roll over next year, particularly in North America, in your view?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. Joe, this is Roger. For any of our markets, we're not seeing anything fundamentally in the bases of the markets themselves to indicate to us that there's going to be any kind of a real upswing in 2014, particularly the mining segment, maybe the off-highway segment, in general. Now you may have seen some of the previous announcements from some other companies that may have indicated the same thing. We're not seeing anything different than what those announcements have said.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Lovallo, Merrill Lynch.

John Lovallo - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

The first question is you guys discussed the ability to flex your operations in certain markets. Can you give us an idea where you think the most potential is there? And how quickly can you guys react to volume?

William G. Quigley

Analyst

I'll take -- John, I'll take a first shot on that. I think with respect to off-highway, for example, let's just use that, certainly, what we're experiencing from a demand perspective is not positive for the business. We certainly have capacity and capability in place. The flexing that's going on, for example, is you're employing all the usual tools with respect to agency employees, temporary layoffs, so on and so forth. But certainly from a capacity perspective, we're not taking capacity out currently in that business. We do expect over the longer term that, that business will come back. But to Roger's point, the visibility on that from a timing perspective is still pretty muted. So I think from a capacity and capability perspective, we're taking the cost actions across all the business, across all the plants in light of the volume that we're seeing, but we're certainly not looking at capacity reductions. My only other remark on that front, though, would be we continue to look at our South American operations. Certainly, there's a lot of economic turmoil in a number of the countries in South America. And from a capacity utilization, that is an area, and from a footprint perspective, that we're continuing to analyze alternatives available to us.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. John, and maybe -- this is Roger. And maybe I could just complement what Bill is saying about the off-highway sector. The off-highway sector is the business unit that we see the most sudden or short-term changes, if you will, in the schedule, both up and down. So while we can react in every single one of our businesses, we want to be sure to be prepared for, when we do see an uptick, to be able to take care of our customers in that event. And the off-highway sector is probably the more difficult one to do that with. Commercial vehicle is not that far behind it. But the other 2 businesses, I think, we can have ample warning to know what's going to unfold.

John Lovallo - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

That's very helpful. If I could just follow up with one question here. In terms of the off-highway market, can you just remind us how much of that is actually export business? And what are the biggest markets there in terms of exports?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. There's a very large European footprint, John, to you point let's say about 70% to 75% of sales. And of that, probably 20% to 25% is export. So that export not only to Asia, for example, but also back to North America, as an example. So basically a manufacturing footprint that exports really around the world, but really the primary export regions being North America and, to a lesser extent, Asia.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Johnson with Barclays.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

I just have questions on a couple of categories. Just on your CV guide and then I want to talk about Light Vehicle Driveline. On CV, it sounds like you're looking for severe sequential decline in -- going into the fourth quarter in Brazil. How do you see that then play -- is that right? And then how would you see that playing out over the beginning of '14?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Barclays.

Brian, it's Bill. We are, obviously, from a sequential perspective, looking at a client CV. I would say it's both South America, as well as North America. Obviously, North America, being really from our prior expectations with respect to the Class 8 build. And we talked about this in the second quarter of this year. While the South American market has recovered very nicely in 2013 compared to 2012, we had called that we would see some softness in the fourth quarter, and we're still holding that assumption in place as we move in. We're seeing a little higher inventory levels being communicated to us in Brazil. So that certainly is tempering the third to fourth quarter sequential in commercial vehicle for South America.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

Okay. And in light vehicle, we've actually had some very positive commentary out of Ford, which is at least one of your customers around the global boom in SUVs. And is that -- are you participating in that in places like South America and India? And does that offer any offset just to the macro sales environment there?

Mark E. Wallace

Analyst · Barclays.

Brian, it's Mark Wallace. Just with Ford, primarily both of our business is with the Super Duty platform, but we also take care of Ford's requirements on the T6 platform, which is really in Thailand and South Africa and Argentina as well, but nothing really related to India. So that's the bulk of our business that we have with Ford from the SUV pickup truck market.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

But with other customers, are there any offsets from growth in SUVs elsewhere?

Mark E. Wallace

Analyst · Barclays.

Well, actually with Chrysler, we're on the JK platform, which is up significantly on a year-over-year basis, which is very strong. And really with Toyota and Nissan, we're basically on the same style of vehicles, which is mainly pickup trucks around the emerging markets.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

And anything left to go on the Bolivian -- the bolivar, the Venezuelan currency? Is that written down to a point where there's no further impact? Or it's going to continue to be a drag?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Barclays.

Brian, it's Bill. From the first quarter devaluation, which you'll recall, was about $11 million. Mark's team has done a great job with respect to recovery actions. We've recovered year-to-date about $9 million of that $11 million. And we do expect into the fourth quarter to recover the remaining piece of the initial or first quarter devaluation. The second piece of the puzzle here with respect to Venezuela is moving forward, given what's going on in that country and with respect to the ability to repatriate cash out of Venezuela and certainly the economic turmoil continuing to swirl in Venezuela. We're very focused on other actions that may be required, given potentially another devaluation sometime into the near future. But it would be, unfortunately, I guess, the well-worn path that Light Vehicle Driveline has continued to execute upon, much like the current devaluation in the event that, that was to be experienced.

Brian Arthur Johnson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays.

And then just final housekeeping point. Can you be active in the market hypothetically to buy back your shares even as your ASR program is out there? Or are you precluded from buying shares until the bank completes its delivery?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Barclays.

I mean, hypothetically, we can. But we are completing -- we're awaiting completion of the finalization of the ASR, which -- my comment should be early December.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Patrick Archambault with Goldman Sachs.

Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

I guess, maybe I'll start with just a quick housekeeping. So you said sort of unusual -- not unusual, but you've got a tax recovery from Brazil, about $2 million. And then I think you said you had insurance recoveries in the quarter as well.

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Yes. Patrick, it's Bill. We had about -- from one of our subsidiaries, we had about $5 million insurance recovery principally related to the sale or the monetization of claims that we had with insolvent carriers.

Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay, got it. I guess, my main question is just like if I have the math correctly, I mean, you guys managed to post 80 basis point improvement in margins despite a 3% decline in revenue this quarter, given all the actions you took. It seems like you've got implied like a similar 3% year-on-year for the fourth quarter given the new guidance, but the increase in margin kind of jumps up to something like 190 basis points, if I'm right. So just wanted to kind of get a sense of what the items were that were helping you, if anything, post a larger margin comp in the fourth quarter despite what, I think, everybody would agree with is fairly challenging volume environment.

William G. Quigley

Analyst

We certainly share your thoughts on the volume environment. If you take a look at our guide at about $6.7 billion in sales and an EBITDA margin of about 7 50. And then obviously, we provide also the endpoints or estimates for both sales and margin for our business segments. We would probably look to see some decremental actually in the fourth quarter on the margin front and at a business unit level probably 10.5% margins, obviously moving into the fourth quarter, to derive that 11.1% for the full year. We posted 11.9% in the second quarter and the third quarter, but I think with respect to some of the volume considerations that we're working through, we are expecting a lower margin performance in the fourth quarter.

Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Sorry, that's sequentially. But year-on-year, right, I think you're up, right? If I'm not mistaken.

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Yes. Year-on-year, we would be...

Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Yes, that's right, my question was year-on-year. I apologize.

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Yes, year-on-year. And I think, again, it's the move through of the cost actions that we've taken throughout the course of the year when we have improved the business structurally from a cost perspective. And I think if you look on a year-over-year basis, we're probably up about 140, 150 basis points for the quarter -- for the fourth quarter.

Patrick Archambault - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Yes, that's what I have. So okay. So I mean, basically, it just a continued rollout, like the volume environment doesn't necessarily get any better but the cost actions that you've put into place to mitigate some of this, I guess, they just gather momentum and deliver better comps on that front? Is that...

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Yes, exactly. Right, exactly. And we -- and just briefly, we had talked about that in the first and second quarter that we're doing a very significant work with respect to our material by economics, usage. I think even in the second or third quarter, we're seeing the benefits of that flow through to our results. So we don't lose that on a year-over-year basis into the fourth quarter. Certainly what the buy is ultimately is going to be predicated on the sales volume. But the operators across the business have done a great job on focusing on that pretty critical element of our cost structure.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. Patrick, this is Roger. To complement Bill there, the work that we've been doing over the last few years, as we've previously mentioned in past calls, is to really solidify the base of this business as we prepare for the growth that we'll see coming in the future. We had anticipated a little bit better environment, if you will, in the market at this point in time and going into the fourth quarter and into the next year. It looks like that's going to be delayed a little bit from what we have seen and talked about here today. But the cost actions continue. So that when that growth and the tailwind does come, we should see a very favorable incremental margins on that.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with UBS.

Colin Langan - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS.

Any color on -- I mean, when I look at it and there are some numbers out there saying South America was up over 60% this quarter. And yet, you're kind of were about 20% -- over 20% of your sales in the region. I would have expected a bit stronger of a mix. I mean, was there a customer mix issue in South America that resulted in some underperformance? Or did you just not see that kind of year-over-year growth in the region?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · UBS.

Colin, it's Bill. Actually, from a -- if we just point to commercial vehicle, we certainly saw a significant recovery in demand in South America out of Brazil, obviously, big market. What's muting that year-over-year is the corresponding FX impacts that we're seeing as well. So certainly from a demand perspective, I think even my comments, we -- overall, we said South America, from a demand perspective, was up about $61 million. Yet, currency really masked that by about $51 million in the opposite direction. So currency movements in Brazil -- we talked about Venezuela in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, certainly a significant impact, as well as Argentina. Those currencies have certainly moved against us.

Colin Langan - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS.

And you're now expecting Brazil truck to come down sequentially? I mean, any color on how that may trend into '14 because that's a pretty volatile market?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · UBS.

We are expecting a sequential lowering of production volume in Brazil. And again, to Roger's point with respect to 2014, we're working through our planning assumptions. But I think that's more driven what our expectation was even a quarter and a half ago on how we saw the fourth quarter kind of lining up, as well as we're seeing some elevated inventories, if you will, with respect to that market in particular. So I think 2014, we don't see anything significantly different in Brazil structurally from an infrastructure perspective. But I think as we continue through the rest of the year, we'll finalize that and obviously report on it in January.

Colin Langan - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS.

And just sometimes there are a lot of restructuring items. I mean, what is -- any color on your tax rate x restructuring in this quarter? And am I correct that your guidance for the year does include a higher tax rate for the full year now than what you're expecting before?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · UBS.

Yes, it does, Colin. We're up at about, I think, 35% to 36% full year. What we're seeing obviously is in areas that certainly are under pressure, for example, South America, we're operating still under valuation allowances in a number of those countries. So we're not getting the benefit, if you will, from lower earnings or in some cases, loss positions in certain countries. So that is elevating our effective rate to about 35% or so.

Colin Langan - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS.

Is that a cash tax rate? Because I'd like to make sure it's the 28% [ph].

William G. Quigley

Analyst · UBS.

No, no, that's the 28% [ph]. Yes, that's the U.S. GAAP tax provision. So it's the income statement rate.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Patrick Nolan with Deutsche Bank.

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

I wanted to just dig into a couple of the segments. A lot of my other questions have been answered. If I dig into the North American CV revenue, it actually looks like it was down year-over-year in the third quarter. And I think industry production was up about 6%. Is there a customer mix issue or a platform mix issue? Or has there been some programs that are maybe switched hands, and that's part of what's going on? And I just wanted to look -- think about that in the context of your statement that North American CV would be down sequentially in Q4. Because it looks like overall industry production will be pretty flattish quarter-over-quarter.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Yes. Patrick, this is Roger. We've been seeing some pretty good volatility in the third quarter, not dissimilar to what we saw in the third quarter of 2012 with the changes, if you will, in the schedules that our customers are showing to us. We had some good confidence going into the quarter as we had talked to you about -- at the end of the second quarter that the volumes were actually going to increase on the path that we had originally anticipated. And then just recently here, realized that with the volatility that we're seeing, sales for us and production is slightly down from a year-over-year comparison. So it's not as much as any one particular factor. It's things are moving around pretty quickly, and the visibility that we've seen kind of decreased on us here just recently. And that's why we're anticipating like we did in 2012 third quarter that the fourth quarter isn't going to show us any uptick. Although I should just mention that sometimes our customers or some of our customers still anticipate maybe seeing some of that. We're not so sure of that anymore. So we thought it would be prudent to make sure that we go out to you guys and let you know that we're calling it flat with the third quarter.

Patrick Nolan - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Got it, that's helpful. And just quickly, on the off-highway in-sourcing, when do we start to lap that? And on the light vehicle business that had been rolling off, is that going to be -- are we thought that now once we enter the fourth quarter? Or is there still a headwind in the fourth quarter?

William G. Quigley

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Yes, Patrick, it's Bill. On the latter, on the Light Vehicle Driveline, we're through that program roll-off activity or quarter-to-quarter comparisons. Third quarter was the last of that. With respect to off-highway, we'll see a bit more of that into the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter will then conclude the in-sourcing action.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Sponheimer with Gabelli & Company. Brian Sponheimer - Gabelli & Company, Inc.: Just one, on your cost structure and given that volumes have gone against you, the execution remains pretty good across all of your businesses. If we were to see any sort of pick up in demand, what would be the type of incremental margin that you'd be hopeful for, let's say, in a 5% or 10% volume growth environment?

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Well, on the incrementals, Brian, as we've mentioned before, we look for between a 15% and a 20% uptick from an incremental basis. And our operating units have done a very nice job at managing through this volatility, both in the down, as well as the ups that we've seen. For instance in the second quarter, you saw that we were able to deliver on that, upswing in sales. So we anticipate keeping it in that 15% to 20% range. That's an average across the organization. There's a few business units that will be north of that. We expect them to be north of that, and there's a couple that may be slightly under that, but not too dramatically under that. So 15% to 20% for the overall enterprise. Brian Sponheimer - Gabelli & Company, Inc.: Okay, that's helpful. And then just within the off-highway business, you'd called out on commercial vehicles an inventory slack in South America. What's your sense in the mining markets that inventory is where it needs to be before you really see a flattening at the bottom here?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. That's an interesting question because, one that we pursue and answer too often and very frequently across our entire customer base around the different regions of the world. It's pretty cloudy right now. We feel like the inventories are somewhat in line with where the production is right now. So we think that if there's an uptick in the production in the industry, we should be able to see that because we believe that our customers in the mining sector are being very, very, very prudent with their inventory control. And that's one of the reasons that we've seen the impact, for instance, over in the aftermarket piece of the mining business is that they're being very, very careful and cautious. Because we think that the outlook is unsure for them as well and a bit cloudy. And so they don't want to be stuck holding a lot of inventory, and we think they've done a good job from everything that we can tell. So the big question is when that market might uptick again? I think that's one that we're all trying to find an answer to, but we feel fairly good that when it does uptick, we're going to see the orders flowing through because there's not a lot of inventory in the system. Brian Sponheimer - Gabelli & Company, Inc.: Okay. That's helpful. And Bill, just one real small housekeeping item. With $220 million left on the share buyback and the ASR being completed by the first week of December or so, did you say that you would expect it to finish the $220 million by year end?

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Oh, no, no, Brian, I said we would expect to, post the completion of the ASR, look to our opportunistic approach as we've done moving into 2014.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes is from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan. Ryan J. Brinkman - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: A lot of my questions have been answered. But maybe just one quickly on Light Vehicle Driveline. I understand the program roll-offs affecting the business in the quarter and also the currency impact in the quarter. But I see that the volume mix line drove about an $11 million increase year-over-year to revenue. It's about 2% of last year's revenue. I thought maybe it would be just a little bit stronger. Can you speak to why this might be? I'm sure you're benefiting from pickups in North America. So I guess, this is the softness in Brazil and India that you alluded to in the release. But can you talk about how material those markets are to Light Vehicle Driveline and what else might have driven the relatively tepid growth relative to global light vehicle in this production of plus 4?

Mark E. Wallace

Analyst

Yes. Ryan, it's Mark Wallace. Just globally, we have a fairly strong business in India. So on a year-over-year basis, more than a 20% decline in that business. And we're still obviously waiting to see when that recovery may occur. So that was definitely an erosion on a year-over-year basis, as well as in Venezuela, as we've talked about, all throughout this year. In the U.S., actually as I mentioned before, both Super Duty and JK are up significantly on a year-over-year basis and then obviously, there's offset with the roll-offs. And the rest of the markets on the globe are pretty much flat. We did see improvement in Europe for the Dana portion because of the Jaguar Land Rover business that was launching. But that was also then had some headwinds relative to the strike in South Africa, which impacted several customers in that region as well. Ryan J. Brinkman - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. That makes perfect sense. And then, I guess, my last question is just, obviously, you're doing a very job containing the decremental margins in the face of the revenue declines. But in off-highway, I think that you reported about $11 million lower EBITDA on $27 million lower sales organically from a volume mix perspective. So that seems a little high like roughly 40% decremental. Is that a function of like the kind of products that you're producing less of year-over-year or the geography or what -- that's probably not what we should model going forward, right?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. Ryan, your presumption is correct, meaning specifically the mining sector and combine that with the aftermarket in the mining sector, both of those segments for that part of the business are very good and both of those are down.

Operator

Operator

And our final question comes from the line of Brett Hoselton with KeyBanc.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Just first point of clarification, on the share repurchase, are -- given the ASR program completing by December, does that mean that you are not in the market at this point in time? Or can you be independently in the market with your share repurchase?

William G. Quigley

Analyst

We can be in the market independently, not with another ASR, obviously. But at the moment, we are not in the market. We're letting the ASR, Brett, transact out, if you will, and that should be completed early December.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. So the expectation should be that you're probably going to remain out of the market until December time frame or something like that, is that correct?

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Correct, yes.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then as we -- directionally, as we think about 2014 sales, I know you commented earlier that you're not seeing the markets improve and so forth. But I guess, what I'm wondering is, is that an off-highway comment? Because I think generally speaking, the expectations are that light vehicle production is going to be improving next year and the commercial vehicle production in Class 8, specifically in North America, is going to potentially improve next year. So I was wondering if you could kind of talk directionally about those markets, commercial and light vehicle?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Brett. This is Roger. In my comment earlier in the call was kind of enterprise-wide across the 4 business segments. There are some differences between the segments. We anticipate the light vehicle segment to be -- to remain strong, if you will, in North America absent anything that we don't yet see out there. On the commercial side, though, that's -- we're not sure about that. We don't think it's going to get worse materially. But as you know, we anticipate a third and fourth quarter where we're going to show quite an uptick in the commercial market. That's not happening, at least from our view, our experience here later in the third quarter and our view of the fourth quarter. And so going into next year, unless something fundamentally changes in terms of the comfort of the fleet operators being comfortable going ahead and placing those orders and replacing their fleets and some of the things that are holding things back, unless that breaks loose, which we had anticipated to happen here in the latter half of this year, we're not at this point seeing anything fundamentally that's going to improve that through 2014, unless something changes between now and the end of the year. So as Bill mentioned, we're going through all the numbers in every one of the business segments right now, as we speak. But the off-highway we've talked about, don't see anything fundamentally changing there. CV, we're not sure but we don't see anything dramatically changing there; LV remaining strong; and of course, PT, across all the business units, that's a strong business, anyway. But that's kind of how we see the individual business segments, Brett.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And do you have any expectations for any material incremental new business growth? I know in the past you kind of talked about being twice the market. Obviously, the markets you're looking directionally may be flat. But that kind of seemed at the time to imply maybe low mid-single digit revenue growth based on new business revenue growth. What's your expectations into next year?

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

Yes. That's a great, great question. And we're really excited about the business that we are winning out there because we're winning it based on the products and the value that we have focused on, the market values drivers, if you will. We're winning the business that we would expect to win out there. But as you know, in the business that we're in, it takes a few years to get those pieces of business launched. And we're in the midst of some of those launches right now. Some of them begin in 2014. And so I would anticipate '15 and '16 seeing the real opportunity that we talk about in terms of growing above the market. As I mentioned in my part of the discussion, on the beginning of the call, the reason we're really excited about that is because we anticipate in the results that we're getting with that will allow us to absorb some of these market fluctuations that we've been experiencing over the last couple of years. And for last year and for this year and possibly in the near-term future, as we experience these market fluctuations, we have to talk to you about them every quarter because these new launches haven't yet taken over to that. But that's what we anticipate in the future, is we're going to be able to absorb these fluctuations with the above-market growth that we'll see.

Brett D. Hoselton - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then, Bill, again, thinking about 2014 margins, major headwinds or tailwinds. I mean, if revenue is going to be roughly, give or take, flat or something like that next year -- just under that assumption I know that you're not guiding to that. But under that assumption, let's say, you're not going to necessarily get any leverage, but yet you've got some company-specific initiatives, which have driven margin expansion over the past few years, so on and so forth. What do you see as the general trend for margins next year? And are there any major headwinds or tailwinds that you think that you're going to see next year?

William G. Quigley

Analyst

Yes, Brett. I think absent volume, I think the company and certainly in the current volume environment and unfortunately one that's been around us for sometime here now in the last 18 months or so, the company is taking pretty marked steps with respect to cost improvement. I think to Roger's point, ultimately, a continued margin ladder, if you will, is going to require good volume and is going to require our continued value that we provide to the customers with respect to innovation. There is just a bunch of more spit left in a flat environment. I think the groups have done or the businesses have done a great job working with what they have through this environment. And I think there's always going to be some opportunity, Brett. But I wouldn't look at it as a large tailwind available to us. I think the volume environment, certainly, we're working through it very well. But at the same time, where I think the growth in the margin profile will come from, and we saw this briefly in the second quarter as we walked from the first to the second, is the contribution margin that we can enjoy when we see that volume. So major tailwinds, I don't think so absent a change in volume. So apples to apples, if you will, major headwinds, I think there's always some headwinds with respect to inflation. But right now, nothing of significance that we're going to have to work through.

Roger J. Wood

Analyst

So this brings us to the end of the call. This is Roger. I just want to say thank you very much to you all for joining us in the last hour. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call, and you may now disconnect.