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Dominion Energy, Inc. (D)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 25, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to Dominion’s First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. On the call today, we have Tom Farrell, CEO; Mark McGettrick, CFO; and other members of senior management. At this time each of your lines is in a listen-only mode. At the conclusion of today’s presentation, we will open the floor for questions. At that time, instructions will be given as for the procedure to follow, if you would like to ask a question. I would now like to turn the call over to Tom Harlin, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Analysis for the Safe Harbor statement.

Thomas E. Harlin

Management

Good morning and welcome to Dominion’s first quarter 2013 earnings conference call. During this call, we will refer to certain schedules included in this morning’s earnings release and pages from our earnings release kit. Schedules in the earnings release kit are intended to answer the more detailed questions pertaining to operating statistics and accounting. Investor Relations will be available after the call for any clarification on these schedules. If you have not done so, I encourage you to visit our website, register for e-mail alerts and view our first quarter 2013 earnings documents. Our website address is www.dom.com/investors. In addition to the earnings release kit, we have included a slide presentation on our website that will guide this morning's discussion. Now, for the usual cautionary language; the earnings release and other matters that will be discussed on the call today may contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts, estimates, and expectations. Also on this call, we will discuss some measures of our Company's performance that differ from those recognized by GAAP. Those measures include our first quarter 2013 operating earnings and our operating earnings guidance for the second quarter and full year 2013, as well as our operating earnings before interest and tax commonly referred to as EBIT. Reconciliation of such measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, we are able to calculate and report are contained on Schedules 2 and 3 and Pages 8 and 9 in our earnings release kit. Joining us on the call this morning are our CEO, Tom Farrell; our CFO, Mark McGettrick, and other members of our management team. Mark will discuss our earnings results for the first quarter of 2013 and our guidance for the second quarter. Tom will review our operating and regulatory activities for the quarter and review the progress we’ve made on our growth plan. I will now turn the call over to Mark McGettrick.

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Good morning. Dominion's operating earnings of $0.83 per share for the first quarter were within but below the midpoint of our guidance range of $0.80 to $0.95 per share. Earnings for the quarter were impacted by higher than normal storm and service restoration activity in Virginia, the delay of our Natrium processing plant coming on line, lower margins at Millstone due to transmission congestion at February and lower electric sales in plan. GAAP earnings were $0.86 per share for the quarter, the principle difference between first quarter GAAP and operating earnings with a net gain from our investment in our nuclear decommissioning trust. A reconciliation of operating earnings to reported earnings can be found on Schedule 2 of the earnings release kit. Before moving to operating segment results, let me spend a minute on sales and actions we are taking to protect against, any sales growth that may fall below our estimate of 2%. In the first quarter weather normalized sales grew by about 1%, thus far we have seen strong growth in commercial activity this year, our residential sales have lagged. It is far too early in the year to draw any definitive conclusion on changes to our estimates, but you should know that we expect to reduce our 2013 operating expenses by about $100 million from originally plan levels to offset the higher storm and margin events in the first quarter and protect against any potential short-fall in our sales expectations. As we have previously stated a 1% change in sales equates to about $0.04 to $0.05 per share in earnings. We believe this early action reinforces our plans to grow operating earnings by our annual target of 5% to 6%. Finally, as we explained at our March 4 Analyst Meeting, you should expect most of our growth…

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Good morning. At our March 4th Analyst Meeting in New York, I highlighted our improved safety performance by showing that our OSHA incident rate had been reduced by over two-thirds over the last seven years. That trend continued in the first quarter of this year as well with each of our business units achieving year-over-year improvements in the safety. We achieved record-setting operating performance from our generating fleet in the first quarter as well. The first quarter net capacity factor of the seven Dominion nuclear units was 100%. In fact, up until the April 14 shutdown of North Anna Units 2 for its schedule refueling outage, all seven nuclear units operated continuously for 125 days. Millstone Unit 3 achieved a record of breakout continuous run of over 500 days. Our merchant fleet established quarterly availability records for the combined cycle fleet as a whole in for the [indiscernible] power station. In particular, we continue to move forward on our growth plan. Construction of the 1,329 megawatt Warren County combined cycle plant is progressing on schedule and on budget for the late 2014 commercial operation days. All three combustion turbines and generators have been installed on their foundations. The air-cooled condenser and the three heat recovery steam generators are being interacted over 900 people are presently employed at the site. Development of the proposed Brunswick County Power Station continues, last November we filed the CPCN and rider applications with the State Corporation Commission. The public hearing began yesterday and we expect a ruling from the commission later this summer. On March 15, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality issued the units air permit, the 1,358 megawatt three-on-one combined cycle facility is expected to be in service in 2016. The conversion of the Altavista, Southampton and Hopewell plants from coal to biomass…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will open the floor for questions. (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse. Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse: Listen on the load growth outlook it seems like there is a little more caution maybe you’re telling and what you guys said today maybe even from the Analyst Day. Can you maybe just shed a little more light on what you’re seeing and are we seeing the impact of the sequestration or other things in the area that that’s having more variant on the outlook this year?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Dan, it’s heard to hear you, but this is Mark. I think I got your questions, if I can address it on a little more depth. January and February for us was pretty close to expectations in terms of low growth. But March dropped off significantly for us and so the sales for the quarter were only up above 1%. We were very pleased with commercial sales. They were up about 3%, industrial sales which is a small item for us, but they were up by 1%, but our residential sales were fairly flat. We don’t have an answer for this for you today because something we’re monitoring closely and we will talk more about as we go through the year, but the reason, one of the principle reasons to announce the expense reduction program today is to safeguard ourselves from any potential sales shortfall if that would occur. If that doesn’t occur then some of those expenses will be put back into operating budgets later in the year, but we want to make sure we got out in front of this and we safeguard ourselves to we have a better picture on what sales might look at like this year. Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse: All right, thanks Mark. And I guess just on that we’re kind of leading to the next question which is on the cost cutting. Can you explain what are all those going into that? Are these kind of your period specific cost that will you caught up in the future periods or these some structural changes that are bringing more cost out of the system as you reevaluate the business?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

It’s going to be a combination of both, some will be structural changes, some will be timing changes that we will redeploy for future periods. We’re finalizing those plans now and should have that in place by the end of April. I will tell you one of the first steps we took in the first quarter was to significantly restrict new staffing for the company which typically is in the range of 300 to 400 new employees every year as a way to give us a running start on this has been managed very closely. And so based on that we think we’re in good shape as we implement other changes throughout the company and again as I mentioned previously some of them will be time based, some of them will be permanent. Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse: And so we should assume that the O&M cost for 2013 are now going to be down, almost noticeably versus 2012 with this program as well?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Actually, I think with the $100 million item, you should see expenses 2012 to 2013 to be very flat. Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse: Okay. And then I guess just one last question on the biennial review. You have kind of given what your earned ROEs are and the way the legislation came in through in Virginia this spring. Did you guys see the opportunity potentially to settle with parties and kind of get everybody pass this and focus back on business full time or is this going to be a fully litigated process?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Dan, we’re always happy to talk to the parties about settlement. I think you have to let the process runs, scores at least for some period of time before people rounded to talk about that. I do think the issues are pretty limited. In this case, I’m sure people will want to talk about that going forward. Earnings band, for example that won’t affect base rates but we’ll have its impact in some regard in what the earnings test is for 2013 and 2014 and a little increment of that peers in the riders. So I think that will obviously be an area for discussion, but the accounting issues are not very complex. Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse: Got it. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Steven Fleishman with Wolfe Trahan. Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Trahan: Yeah, hi, good morning. Just first question on biennial, where did the peer group ROEs come out in your filling, the three year rolling…

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Steve, I don’t have that sitting here in front of me, I apologize. We’ll get it, we’ll make sure, it’s posted on the website, it’s in the testimony. Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Trahan: Okay.

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

It’s all out there in public domain. I’m sorry. Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Trahan: Okay

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

The average of the, if you use all 11 the average is 10.74%. Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Trahan: Great. And then on the retail business, I know you had a tough comp last year, you did very well, but could you just go into any dynamics you are seeing in the retail business so far this year?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Steve, let me just mention the comparable to last year first and then I’ll turn it over to Paul to go into more depth on it. If you look at the reconciliation on the Schedule 4 which is in page 10, I think on the kit it shows the $0.07 quarter-over-quarter change from $0.13 to $0.12 and that was driven by two items, I talked about this at the Analyst Meeting on March 4 to expect this, we took a $0.05 of one-time mark-to-market gain in the first quarter of last year based on some commercial and industrial contracts that were deemed to be derivatives. So that was $0.05 of the difference the remaining $0.02 is just a normal roll off of those contracts that occur beginning in the first, second quarter last year and we’ll continue through the rest of this year. So, those are the two high level drivers, but in terms of the dynamics in retail let me ask Paul to comment on that.

Paul D. Koonce

Analyst

Yeah. Steve, good morning. The dynamics if you, when you look at the ABS, it’s going to be published here in just a few minutes you’ll see that retail actually had a strong quarter. They get albeit at the low end of the guidance range, but when you look at customer counts in the kit, you can see the customer counts were up, you can see the volumes were up, but it is a competitive business. So, when you compare to guidance it’s kind of what we expected, but it’s less than last year. Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Trahan: Okay. One other question just on the issue with Millstone on the basis, I guess the congestion in February, is this something we should very about just with all the different gas dynamics in doing when that could have any ongoing issues, or is it just very driven by that storm and alike transmission issues from that?

Thomas F. Farrell II

Analyst

Steve, let me have Dave Christian to answer that for you.

David A. Christian

Analyst

Yeah. It looks like that was predominantly concentrated in one week in February and wouldn’t expect to see a lot of that throughout the rest of the year. Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Trahan: Okay. Great, thanks very much.

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Thank you, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank: Good morning, guys.

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Good morning.

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Good morning, John. Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank: I was going to ask about retail so I will ask my other one instead. On the Natrium, you talked about the delay and then you’re going to change some of your operating practices or what about to help reduce risk going forward. Can you just give us a bit more insight into what exactly caused this delay and what you’re going to do differently to fix?

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

: : : Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank: Okay, so I’m just still speaking in a very generic terms I mean was it one major issue or just a hardest of issues?

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

I wish, I can tell you it’s one issue that we can solve that we will point one finger out, but it was a variety of issues across our management of it and the contractor’s management of it, but it is I consider to be a one-off experience, we’ve made the changes we need to make…. Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank: Okay.

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

And we’ll be in better shape going forward. Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank: And on similar topic, could you just comment on the sort of contracting status of Natrium 2 to and the banned facility.

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Yeah, of course, Natrium that will be handle by Blue Racer… Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank: Okay

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Those are their projects they are, remember the way it works, they have to contribute all the capital to the joint venture until our capital accounts are equal which has a ways to go, so they will be putting up all the cash for example to purchase those processing plants. There is a tremendous amount of interests in those two locations which is why they picked them to move these processing facilities to, they are well in the negotiations with the variety of producers and we will have to leave announcements about that up to the Blue Racer management team as they come along… Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank: Thank you very much

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Thank you

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Fremont with Jefferies Paul Fremont – Jefferies & Company: Thanks. If I take the retail declined in the first quarter and assume sort of a $12 million decrement each quarter between now and end of the year that would seem to put you on the low end of your retail guidance for the year as is that a fair assumption?

Paul D. Koonce

Analyst

Paul, this is Paul Koonce, we did have a very strong first and second quarter last year, we’ve guided the full year and we have not seen any reason to change that. Paul Fremont – Jefferies & Company: Okay. And I guess my other question would be on the new processing facilities, can you give us a sense of what the capital spend is associated with each of those processing facilities?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

We’ll have to get back on that Paul its Blue Racer’s capital spend it’s not ours. Paul Fremont – Jefferies & Company: Understood, but I’m just trying to take you out, what…

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Actually Caiman’s capital spend, not even the joint ventures capital spend.

Paul D. Koonce

Analyst

Paul, I would say that if you are making the comparison Natrium 1 the facility that we are going to put into the joint venture, these processing facilities are significantly different than that and at a significantly reduced cost from that. Paul Fremont – Jefferies & Company: Great, but they have no fractionation, right?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Right, no fractionation. And so, again, without Dominion management allowed us to release that we’re not in a position to tell you the exact cost of plans, but I certainly can guide you that it will be dramatically lower than what Natrium 1 cost. Paul Fremont – Jefferies & Company: And is there a schedule in the biennial proceeding that’s available?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Actually, I think they just issued the schedule. Hearings are supposed to be in the first or second week of September. Paul Fremont – Jefferies & Company: Okay.

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

And the staffs require mandates that they issue the final order before the end of November. Paul Fremont – Jefferies & Company: And staffs and intervenor filings are do, when?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

August Paul Fremont – Jefferies & Company: Okay.

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

But there is a, Paul it’s in everyone else. Listen, there was a posted order that we’ll make sure we get on our website for you. Paul Fremont – Jefferies & Company: Great.

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

It’s on the State Corporation Commission’s website now. Paul Fremont – Jefferies & Company: Thanks very much.

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Good morning guys.

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Paul…

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Good morning. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Just I want to touch base with you on weather versus normal. On page 24, it looks like it was a hurt and on page 21, it looks like that you guys had higher heating degrees actual versus normal. Could you reconcile that for me?

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Yeah, well that was actually a hurt to normal for us. So about a $0.0015 for the quarter, heating degree days were up, but based on wind that was occurred during the day I think it was the full benefit of that here is most of it, but again weather normalized for us, it hurt us a $0.0015 but quite honestly Paul we’re pretty happy with compared to the quarters over the last two years what we really have been hurt by weather. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Okay. And the reason why the heating degrees don’t have this bigger impact even though they are greater than normal because I missed it what was that?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Paul, you want to take that?

Paul D. Koonce

Analyst

The heating degree day had really occurred in March and the March heating degree days are not as significant as the heating degree days that we lost in January, that’s the reason. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Okay, I got you. And then on the mark-to-market gains from last year, are there other gains that happened, I noticed that you guys are seeing some decrease in the second quarter as well on the retail business, just any other mark-to-market benefits that we should be thinking about? That well…

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

I think, if I recall that the second quarter of 2012, there was a $0.035 mark-to-market gain in retail which we don’t expect that in the second quarter of this year. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Okay. And then just finally on the Blue Racer drop in that happened sooner than you guys had previously expected? What led it to come in sooner? What was the reason for that?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Well, we were ready to drop in and they want to drop it earlier. The Blue Racer team is very excited to get these assets in place as quick as they can. We had a little bit of work to do on this pipe and we dropped it a month earlier based on their request and as being ready. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates: Okay, thanks a lot.

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co.: Dominion Virginia Power and then one on the remaining merchant generation facility, on Virginia Power what kind of, what do you see as kind of the biggest issues for the general rate case process? And then on the, what’s remaining of your merchant generation fleet mean Millstone a fair less works. You’ve made a consorted effort over the last few years to shrink relative to the broader Dominion, the size and exposure to merchant generation almost to the point where it doesn’t move the needle in either direction. How do you think about these assets versus being kind of part of your core long-term strategic goals are intent?

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Well, as far as the biennial review goes because of I mean this is now the second of the biennial reviews, a lot of them, we’ve been through the process, everybody has been through the process, everybody now knows pretty much what the rules of the road are. The legislature has some language that sort of clarifies that period expenses are period expenses and our shareholders have to bear the cost of those of period expenses in the period in which they are incurred storms, natural disasters, write-off, significant plant in this particular case. Our Chesapeake in Yorktown facilities because of the mercury rules that EPA finalized during the period. Let’s say it maybe clear that’s our shareholders responsibility and can’t be spread out and we have customers to pay for them. And also has the impact of ensuring that they are accounted for as period expenses and the period in which they have incurred. So the accounting issues, everybody has imagination expect we’ll see some interesting arguments, I don’t know, but I think the commission presents pretty clear on all these things. So I think the main issues will not revolve around over earnings, they will revolve around what going forward return on equity is that is taking into account for the providers going forward and what will be the basis for the 2013 and 2014 by any review. They also stated also made it clear that the commission should only utilize a performance standards that they had used in the past, in their present which is in the last time did any of that was in the late 1990s, in which their focus is on generation plant performance, because you can seize direct benefit to customers from better nuclear performance, better coal performance, because it reduces the cost…

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Okay, I think the issues will be the same. We, our filling demonstrates that we are entitled to base rate increase of about I think it’s a $128 million. We did not ask the commission to grant us a base rate increase. We intend to move forward and try to shift to be allowed earnings based upon customer growth in our own actions here. So we have not ask for a rate increase unless we’re found in the biannual review to have over earned there cannot be a review for rate decrease until 2017. So, that’s why do actually think that interest will be in the biannual review in the earnings test, which I think would be highly unlikely we will have be found to fall above the top the earnings range. Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co: Got it, thank you Tom much appreciated.

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you our next question will come from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. Stephen Byrd – Morgan Stanley: Good morning.

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Good morning Stephen. Stephen Byrd – Morgan Stanley: Most of my questions have been answered. I just wanted to follow-up on [when] Dan had asked about the cost cutting the $100 million in expense reductions. Mark, you’ve mentioned there is a mix of types of reductions but as we are thinking about sort of the structural cost reductions, could you just talk just broadly about what kind of broader long-term cost reductions you would envision just in broad strokes in terms of categories. As I think about sort of the delays of hiring, does that sounds more like a delayed in a permanent change, But just love to understand the cost cutting better?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Yeah, I’d like give you a broader answer on it Stephen, but again we are still in the process of finalizing some of that. I think what you should expect for 2013 is a temporary reduction in expenses and have us evaluate here over the second quarter, and how many of those can become permanent over time. That’s why I emphasize the staffing, we can certainly address the new hires very quickly from previous employment levels that we anticipated as a quick savings mechanisms for us, but I’ll try to get into more color on that in the next call, the third quarter call, you’ll start to see some of those expenses materialize. But I don’t want to get in front of the process. We’re still discussing internally with the businesses and what’s appropriate, but we are very focused that on the levels that I discussed to ensure that we can meet our growth rates should sales fall short on us and to make up for the first quarter short-fall. Stephen Byrd – Morgan Stanley: Understood. Thank you very much.

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Thanks you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Julien Smith with UBS. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS: Hi, good morning. Can you hear me?

Thomas F. Farrell

Management

Yeah, good morning.

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Yes, we can… Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS: Very good morning, excellent, first question, you’ve eluded to sequestration I’d be curious if you just kind of dig into that a little bit more what precisely was the contribution of sequester to 1Q results and secondly what are your expectations through the balance of the year in that regard?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

Julien, this is Mark. One is – right now, I’m not comfortable seeing any of it is associated with the sequester. As I mentioned, the first two months of the year were fairly close to expectation for us, and March, for whatever reason, which we’re still evaluating, came in short. So I think we have to go through the year to figure just what are the drivers of any change, if there is any change. And so we’re taking a cautious approach here. But at this point in time, we have no basis to say that any of the shortfall is associated with the sequester activity. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS: Okay, great. Second question here on New England. I’d be curious, why you’re not take off your hedges here, given pricing? I’d be just curious, I’ve recognized first quarter your hedged up largely. You didn’t realize it but broader thought process there?

Mark F. McGettrick

Management

We established our hedging program years ago and if you look back over the last five years, I think, you’ll see that over that period of time, our hedging strategy has delivered more value to our shareholders than if we had not have a hedging program, actually every year of those years I believe. So what we’ll evaluate going forward but we don’t hedge, we don’t say the market, our idea what the hedging program is to, we’ll give earnings guidance, we want those assets to produce their share of the earnings guidance. So that’s why we hedged in these windows and roll in over time. We’re going to continue to do that. So that could turn you know we evaluate everything. We think that’s not the way to go about in the future, then we will certainly look at that, but for now, we’re content with the way we’re doing.

Paul D. Koonce

Analyst

Julien, if you look at what we did in the first quarter, we actually did a significant amount of hedging, we talked about it on March 4, we haven’t done it since March 4th, but if you look at the hit price and what we were able to lock in the first quarter and the movement from the end of the year, it’s pretty significant and it was a good lift price wise push. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS: Yes, very good point on that one. And then lastly just curious here, Open Season you kind of alluded to if this New York opportunity kind of linked back to New England reliability is that just kind of getting a sense to the size and scale of are there any potential investments there? Kind of thinking more broadly here, this part of a broader aspect here?

Gary L. Sypolt

Analyst

I would say. This is Gary Sypolt, Julien, and I would say the Open Season really more traditional on LDC market is where we think that that’s headed and not necessarily fire plants all, but the traditional LDC market, that’s really looking for access to shale type gas on the Appalachian region. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS: All right, excellent. Well thank you very much guys. Thanks for the time.

Thomas F. Farrell II

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude this morning's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines and enjoy your day.