Mark F. McGettrick
Analyst · ISI Group
Thank you, and good morning. Dominion's operating earnings for the fourth quarter were $0.69 per share, just below the midpoint of our guidance range of $0.65 to $0.75 per share. Once again, milder-than-normal temperatures, particularly in December, were a significant factor, reducing earnings by about $0.05 per share. Additionally, Dominion Retail's results were below expectations as for Millstone's due to an extended outage at Unit 2. These negatives were offset by our Blue Racer Midstream joint venture, lower operating and maintenance expenses in a lower effective income tax rate. For the full year 2012, Dominion reported operating earnings of $3.05 per share, which was below the bottom of our guidance range of $3.10 to $3.35 per share. Milder-than-normal weather in all 4 quarters reduced full year operating earnings by $0.22 per share. With normal weather, our operating earnings would have been $3.27 per share or over 7% above operating earnings for 2011. In 2012, we did manage through a number of unexpected challenges as well. Sales growth was down from our original expectations. Ancillary service revenues at Virginia Power were down due to reduced loads and our merchant generation margins were below our original expectations. However, we offset all of these earnings challenges with our midstream joint venture, lower operating and maintenance expenses, lower interest in income tax expense and higher contributions from Dominion Retail. Earnings for GAAP purposes were a loss of $0.66 per share for the quarter and a positive $1.01 per share for the full year. The principal difference between fourth quarter GAAP and operating earnings was a $731 million impairment of our Brayton Point Power Station. For the year, the major differences were the impairment charges for Brayton Point and Kewaunee. A reconciliation of 2012 operating earnings to reported earnings can be found on Schedule 2 of the earnings release kit. Now moving to results by operating segment. At Dominion Virginia Power, EBIT for 2012 was $1.1 billion, which was above the upper end of its guidance range. A strong contribution from Dominion Retail, lower operating expenses and higher transmission rate base growth offset the impact of mild weather in our electric distribution business. EBIT for Dominion Energy was $950 million, which was below the midpoint of its guidance range. The overall weakness in the storage and gas transportation markets impact the results from both the Gas Transmission and Producer Services businesses. Offsetting these factors were the benefits from our Blue Racer joint venture. Dominion Generation produced EBIT of $1.58 billion for 2012, which was below the bottom of its guidance range. Mild weather at Virginia Power and lower ancillary service revenues at Virginia Power were the principal factors driving the results for the Regulated Generation business. Lower-than-expected power prices and the Millstone outage I referred to earlier were the principal drivers for lower merchant generation contributions. On a consolidated basis, both interest expenses and income taxes came in better than our estimates. Consistent with past practices, interest expenses associated with the merchant plants now being sold were excluded from operating earnings. State tax benefits, as well as the resolution of some IRS audit issues helped reduce our overall effective income tax rate to 35% for the year compared to our original guidance range of 36% to 37.5%. Moving to cash flow and treasury activities. Funds from operations were $3.7 billion for 2012. Regarding liquidity, we have $3.5 billion of credit facilities. Commercial paper and Letters of Credit outstanding at the end of the year were $2.4 billion and were netted against short-term cash investments resulted in available liquidity of $1.3 billion. For statements of cash flow and liquidity, please see pages 13 and 26 of the earnings release kit. Now moving to our financing plans. We have issued $750 million of Virginia Power debt earlier this month. We were pleased with the market's response to our offering and we thank those of you who participated. Now, I'd like to take a minute and talk about the bonus depreciation provision in legislation that was recently passed by Congress. Once again, Dominion will realize a significant cash benefit. We expect additional cash flows of about $600 million over the next 2 years due to this change. We will detail a total impact of bonus depreciation, as well as our financing plan for the balance of the year at our March 4 analyst meeting, but you should not expect any stock buybacks or changes to our 2013 earnings guidance due to this tax change. The financing and rate-based impacts resulting from bonus depreciation fall into our stated 5% to 6% growth range. Now to earnings guidance. We estimate operating earnings for the first quarter of 2013 within a range of $0.80 to $0.95 per share. This compares with original operating earnings of $0.85 per share for the first quarter of 2012. Compared to the first quarter of last year, positive drivers for the quarter include a return to normal weather, earnings from our newly completed growth projects at Dominion Energy, sales growth at Virginia Power and higher rider related revenues. Negative drivers for the quarter include higher operating and maintenance expenses, lower contributions from Dominion Retail and a higher effective tax rate. Let me spend a minute on the pension discount rate for 2013 and the impact on Dominion. Our discount rate for the year will be 4.4%, down from 5.5% last year. The incremental pretax expense impact from this after capitalization is approximately $52 million. However, please be advised that we anticipated a lower discount rate in our 2013 guidance and the final 4.4% rate is consistent with our guidance range. Our operating earnings guidance for 2013 is $3.20 to $3.50 per share. The middle of this range corresponds to a 5% to 6% increase over the middle of our guidance range for 2012. The growth drivers for 2013 are similar to those expected in the first quarter: higher revenues from a recently completed gas project, higher rider related revenues and sales growth at Virginia Power. Negative drivers will be higher depreciation, higher operation and maintenance expenses, higher financing cost and a higher effective income tax rate. As to hedging, you can find our hedge positions on Page 28 of the earnings release kit. Since our last earnings call, we have increased our hedge positions at Millstone from 80% to 82% for 2013, from 40% to 59% for 2014 and from 24% to 37% for 2015. Our sensitivity to a $5 move in New England power prices in 2013 is only about $0.02 per share. Locking in these positions reduces the risk associated with achieving our earnings growth targets. So let me summarize my financial review. Operating earnings for 2012 were $3.05 per share. Extraordinarily mild weather experienced throughout the year reduced earnings by $0.22 per share. With normal weather, our operating earnings would have been $3.27 per share, a 7% increase over operating earnings of $3.05 per share for 2011 and consistent with our growth targets. Our operating earnings guidance for the first quarter of 2013 is $0.80 to $0.95 per share. A return to normal weather, earnings from growth project and sales growth at Virginia Power should drive these results. And finally, our operating earnings guidance for 2013 remains $3.20 to $3.50 per share. The middle of this range assumes normal weather and corresponds to a 5% to 6% increase over the middle of our guidance range for 2012. Before we take your questions, I want to highlight a few topics we will discuss in more detail at our March 4 analyst meeting. These are, first, the Cove Point export project; second, the pending sale of our merchant generating plants; third, the Blue Racer joint venture; fourth, the upcoming biannual review and pending changes to the Virginia regulatory statute and; 5, our revised CapEx and financing plans including the impacts from bonus depreciation. I would request that questions today focus on 2012 results and first quarter 2013 earnings guidance. Thank you, and we're now ready for questions.