Operator
Operator
It is now my pleasure to turn today's webcast over to Joyce Arpin, Senior Vice President of Finance and Assistant Treasurer. Joyce, the floor is yours.
Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)
Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Sun, Nov 4, 2018
$27.57
-1.66%
Operator
Operator
It is now my pleasure to turn today's webcast over to Joyce Arpin, Senior Vice President of Finance and Assistant Treasurer. Joyce, the floor is yours.
Joyce Arpin
Management
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Caesars Entertainment third quarter 2018 conference call. Joining me today from Caesars Entertainment Corporation are Mark Frissora, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Eric Hession, Chief Financial Officer. A copy of the press release, earnings presentation slides and a replay of this conference call are available in the Investor Relations section of our website at caesars.com. Also, please note that prior to this call, we furnished a copy of the earnings release to the SEC in the form 8-K and we'll also file our Form 10-Q. Before we get underway, I would like to remind you to reference slides 2 through 4, which include forward-looking statements, Safe Harbor disclaimers and definitions of certain non-GAAP measures. Our comments today will include forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Forward-looking statements reflect our expectations as of today's date and we have no obligation to update or revise them. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements due to unanticipated hold fluctuations, weather or other unforeseen circumstances that we do not control. There are certain risks and uncertainties, including those disclosed in our filings with the SEC, that may impact our results. In addition, Caesars Entertainment Operating Company, or CEOC, emerged from bankruptcy on October 6, 2017, and Caesars Entertainment Corporation completed its merger with Caesars Acquisition Company, or CAC, on that date. We also deconsolidated the results of the Horseshoe Baltimore in the third quarter of 2017 and closed on the acquisition of Centaur Gaming in the third quarter of 2018. Therefore, U.S. GAAP results do not include CEOC in Q3 2017, but include Horseshoe Baltimore in Q3 2017 and include Centaur in Q3 2018. Enterprise-wide results include CEOC in the prior year and include Centaur in the current year, but exclude the Horseshoe Baltimore in both years unless otherwise stated. Enterprise-wide holds-adjusted results reflect hold versus our expectation. You can find reconciliations of GAAP and non-GAAP figures starting on slide 37. I will now turn the call over to Mark. Please turn to Slide 6.
Mark Frissora
Management
Thank you, Joyce. As most of your read in our press release this afternoon, we announced that I will be leaving the company on February 8. It's been an honor to serve as the CEO of Caesars since 2015, particularly given all that this management team has accomplished to transform the company during that period. I'm very grateful to the entire team for their efforts and proud of what we've accomplished together and very optimistic about our company's future. I plan to remain focused on operating discipline and maintaining stability during the transition. So now we'll turn to the operating results. We reported third quarter enterprise-wide revenues of nearly $2.2 billion, up 2.9% from the prior year quarter despite headwinds in Las Vegas and Atlantic City and a very challenging year-over-year comparison. The increase was due primarily to the acquisition of Centaur and strong performance across our diversified regional portfolio, excluding Atlantic City. Note that we had a very strong Q3 2017, which benefited from favorable items, including a credit and bad debt expense and we also had unfavorable hold versus our expectations this quarter. Taking these items into consideration, we are very pleased with our performance this quarter. Outside of Las Vegas, we realized an 8.4% increase in revenue and a 10.7% increase in adjusted EBITDAR for our other U.S. properties, despite the increased competition in Atlantic City. Excluding the acquisition of Centaur and the impact in Atlantic City, adjusted EBITDAR growth would have been 3%, demonstrating the continued broad-based strength across our regional portfolio and momentum in our operational efficiency efforts. In Las Vegas, revenues fell 2.4%, attributable to soft demand. Adjusted EBITDAR declined 7.5% impacted by unfavorable hold of $10 million to $15 million year-over-year as well as higher collections than normal in the prior year period,…
Eric Hession
Management
Thank you, Mark. Before I discuss the details on our segment results, I'd like to start on Slide 17 to discuss RevPAR and specifically detail the drivers of our Q3 RevPAR decline of $4 or 3.6%. As you see in the waterfall chart, the RevPAR weaknesses is primarily attributable to lower rate in occupancy due to weak demand in the leisure segment driven by fewer citywide events year-over-year. In addition, we took inventory off of a key online travel agency as we negotiated better contract terms, which will positively impact EBITDAR for the long term, but negatively affect RevPAR this quarter. In response to the unexpected weaker leisure demand, we leveraged our large gaming loyalty database to fill rooms with casino customers. Because of the lead time associate with this strategy, most of the improvement impacted, Q4 but we saw some benefit in September as well. In addition, annualization of resort fees also had a positive impact on RevPAR of about $1.60. Now turning to Slide 18, let's review our results for the third quarter in more detail. As in quarter past, our commentary includes CEOC results but excludes Horseshoe Baltimore from the prior year. Starting in the third quarter, Centaur is included in our results. First in Las Vegas, as Mark noted, it was a challenging quarter primarily driven by lower casino volumes, unfavorable hold and lower occupancy given weaker than anticipated demand and a very difficult comparison versus last year's robust event calendar. Overall, Las Vegas net revenue totaled $910 million, down 2.4% versus the prior year period. Hospitality results were soft, driven by lower occupancy rates in the leisure segment. As a result, overall Las Vegas cash room revenue fell 5.5% and RevPAR as noted fell 3.6%. Cash ADR in Las Vegas was down 2% versus last…
Mark Frissora
Management
Thanks a lot, Eric. On Slide 22. So coming back to our full year outlook for a moment, note that we are slightly lowering our CapEx guidance with same-store at $500 million to $550 million, which includes our room renovations. Development CapEx is at $250 million to $275 million, which includes Caesars Forum, Korea and the Centaur integration. The development CapEx range was lowered as spend at Caesars Forum shifted more into 2019 from 2018. Slide 23, turning to the fourth quarter specifically. As I mentioned, we are seeing good momentum in Las Vegas. In October, we generated one of the highest monthly hotel revenue results in the history of the company. We had 50,000 additional casino room nights on the books versus the same time last year and we're seeing solid growth in our VIP and VVIP segments, all important indicators of performance. Our Total Rewards gaming database and unique distribution model is a significant competitive advantage that we can use to drive increases in casino room nights, which reduces our reliance on the leisure segment. Looking further out to 2019, our business is healthy. We already have 90% of our target room nights booked for in-house groups. Overall room nights in the books for January 2019 are up by approximately 28,000 versus the same time last year. We expect positive ADR growth in Las Vegas and Caesars Bluewaters Dubai will be fully operational and generating fees as well as Buena Vista, opening in the second quarter. To recap, we remain confident in delivering value to our shareholders through our continued operational focus and disciplined growth strategy. On Slide 25, there is a summary of progress on some of our key strategic objectives. In the 13 months since CEOC's emergence from bankruptcy, we have continued to focus on cash flow margins, while gradually shifting investments towards long-term growth initiatives. We're expanding the Caesars Entertainment network through accretive MNA, Las Vegas real estate development, international development and asset light branding and licensing opportunities with a focus on capital discipline. We have also prioritized investments in innovation in our core gaming business to attract new demographics and capitalize on emerging trends, including building out our U.S. sports betting business where Caesars is extremely well positioned to compete. We are well positioned to generate sustainable top- and bottom-line growth through our successful and disciplined execution of these initiatives. In summary, we are successfully executing on the plan that we set out at emergence and we have a clear path forward to creating significant shareholder value. We remain focused on executing against these growth areas in a disciplined manner. We're now ready to open up the line for Q&A, operator.
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Carlo Santarelli. You may ask your question.
Carlo Santarelli
Analyst
Congratulations on a great job with the company through the bankruptcy up until the present. Just in terms of the commentary on Las Vegas, I guess, there is a little bit of - I guess, from your comments, obviously, there were a couple of one timers in the 3Q and some of the changes that you made around the way you're addressing some of the FIT business as well as some of the wholesale and group business and obviously, that's - more of that will be on the com when you do get the Caesars Convention Center open. But Eric, maybe you could talk a little bit about just some of the nuances of some of those changes and how the moving parts all come together to kind of serve as a little bit of headwind to RevPAR growth?
Eric Hession
Management
As we mentioned at a few of the investor conferences throughout the third quarter, we were clearly surprised by the falloff in the pace of that leisure demand segment. One of our largest competitive advantages is the sizable database that we have. And the database is most effective when used out looking a few months ahead in terms of being able to market to those customers. So we tried to do that in the middle of the third quarter. And as Mark mentioned in his notes, we did affect a little bit of the September month. However, unfortunately, our occupancy fell overall because we weren't able to backfill with those casino customers. When we look into fourth quarter, and even into next year, utilizing the database has been very effective. We have 100,000 more room nights on the book at this point compared to the prior year period and over half of those are from the casino segment. So that is certainly providing us with optimism regarding the strength of the quarter. In addition, we finished the October month where we saw October finishing either as the best or the second best hotel revenue month ever in the history of the company. So the fourth quarter is shaping up quite well. And then as we head into 2019, the group demand also seems quite strong. We have significant percentage of the anticipated rooms already on the books, well over 90% and they're at solid rates that would indicate further strength in the Las Vegas market.
Carlo Santarelli
Analyst
And obviously, Eric, as you mentioned, that casino customer impact, just given the way the accounting works on the optical way that you'd report RevPAR, would obviously have a negative influence, correct?
Eric Hession
Management
Yes, so the casino room nights because of the way revenue recognition was changed at the beginning of this year, we book the casino room nights at a discount to one of our transient segments. And so as a result, if we are trading rooms from that segment, casino segment, it would drive down RevPAR. To the extent that we're actually increasing occupancy, it would be a good side of the ledger, but when you're making that trade-off to the casino rooms, it does cause it to decline. In addition, in this case, in Q4, we also have approximately 40,000 more rooms available to sell than we did in the prior year period due to the schedule of the renovations, which that certainly provides downward pressure on the RevPAR calculation, but obviously an opportunity to have incremental revenues by filling rooms with profitable customers.
Carlo Santarelli
Analyst
And then Mark, if I just could ask one follow-up. In your remarks, you talked a little bit about uses of capital going forward and obviously, debt paydown was one of the focus, but you also mentioned acquisitions and M&A strategically. Would there be a scenario where you guys would embark on an M&A transaction that didn't involve a real estate partner?
Mark Frissora
Management
I think that, in general, I'll let Eric answer, I guess. Why don't you go ahead?
Eric Hession
Management
Yes. I would say that it's very unlikely. I'd hate to say never. And it could be the size of the transaction might not be applicable to a real estate transaction. But if we're talking about a tuck-in acquisition of any size in the regional markets, it would certainly make sense given our other needs of capital, to use a real estate partner.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Dan Politzer. You may ask your question.
Dan Politzer
Analyst
So I want to hit on the change, the CEO change first. How are you guys going about the search for a potential candidate? And are you guys looking externally, internally? And do you guys have a time line of when you think that seat could be filled?
Mark Frissora
Management
I think that we have a committee on the Board, search committee, and they've engaged obviously an external consultant and the process can yield candidates right away or it could take 4 months, 5 months, I don't know. As you know, it is very variable. We're looking obviously internally, externally. And again, other than just stating what we're doing, that's about all I can speculate on. We don't know how that search will ensue and we obviously want to find someone that will allow us to move forward in a real seamless way and do that as quickly as we can.
Dan Politzer
Analyst
And just given the recent headlines on M&A regarding your company, I mean, does the vacancy change the time line or approach to M&A?
Mark Frissora
Management
No, I think, we've got a very active - we have different committees within the Board. We have an active committee that looks at all of our acquisitions and that process hasn't slowed down at all. And so I don't anticipate any delay. If there is something that we think creates value, shareholder value, we will move very quickly or it.
Dan Politzer
Analyst
And then, you guys talked about your strong October trends in Las Vegas. How should we think about going forward your performance in terms of lodging, relative to your peers on The Strip and the industry in general?
Eric Hession
Management
Yes, Dan, we've included in the earnings deck a slide that covers the RevPAR that we have generated in Las Vegas compared to that reported by the LVCVA and the change year-over-year. And we've outperformed The Strip by about a little over 300 basis points on average for 9 quarters. We believe that, that's largely due to our business model and also the room renovations that we have undertaken. We're about 70% of the way done with those by the end of the year. So I would anticipate some continued performance heading into next year that would outperform The Strip. At some point, you get diminishing returns after all of our rooms get back up to the level that they otherwise should be at, and so that will eventually diminish, but I would think heading into 2019, it's reasonable to expect continued outperformance.
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Cameron McKnight of Credit Suisse. You may ask your question.
Cameron McKnight
Analyst
So first of all, in terms of The Strip, Mark, I mean, we all know the third quarter was tough and a lot of words have been written and spoken about that. Looking forward, do you think anything has changed since the first quarter or the second quarter of this year? Or was the third quarter a genuine one-off or an outlier?
Mark Frissora
Management
I think that the only thing that for us that was a surprise was the precipitous drop that we saw in September, but everything that we've seen since then has been pretty much a return to normalcy. So in terms of looking at the Vegas business model going forward, we remain bullish.
Cameron McKnight
Analyst
And could you talk about expected city wide convention attendance for the fourth quarter and the first half of next year? And the magnitude to which you expect attendance might be up in those periods?
Mark Frissora
Management
I know we've previously reported the citywide attendance will be up in the fourth quarter of this year, and particularly in October. We did highlight for you that October was probably one of the best revenue months we've ever seen in hotel revenue for the month of October and that was, when you look at the citywides, I think, they went from last year in October, if I remember right, something like 250,000 to this year, 305,000. So we saw evidence of that and demand that we saw in October. And then in terms of other citywides, I think November is positive as well, roughly 20,000. I think December ends up being on citywides, at least as of a couple of weeks ago, still down because there weren't really any citywide events last year in December, but Eric, you can correct me if I'm wrong.
Eric Hession
Management
Yes, I think, that's right.
Cameron McKnight
Analyst
And then finally, in terms of room renovations and renovations you're making to the common areas at some of the properties on The Strip, do you think that you're taking share to some extent in Las Vegas?
Mark Frissora
Management
Every month, we have been fairly neutral to positive. I don't think - I don't know what the numbers on a month or day basis, but I know generally speaking, we were flat, at least flat to up on share in Vegas. And I know that at least through September. We were looking at it yesterday. So we're doing well. I think that what you see in market share here is, you've got to kind of look at the trend over time. One month, it will be blips based on, could be even baccarat play, it could be based on an event that's occurring at one of your facilities, but over time, I think, we have taken share, quite a bit of share, over the last three years. And we've seen kind of the similar kind of trends that we've had in the past, we're seeing it now. So we're hopeful that as we continue to reduce our reinvestment by targeting customers in a much more precision-oriented way that will be able to continue to either increase share or keep it flat with less reinvestment.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley of Bank of America. You may ask your question.
Shaun Kelley
Analyst
Just maybe one big picture one and then a more detailed one. So the big picture question would be, there's been a lot of press reports and media speculation about just sort of larger scale strategic options that the company could consider. I know these are really difficult to comment on in a public forum, but can you just give us a sense if there are any option that you guys can perceive of that is necessarily off the table as it would relate to kind of how the company looks at some of these things going forward and what structures it may or may not consider?
Mark Frissora
Management
Wow. It's a good question, Shaun. Unfortunately, we can't answer it. I just can't comment we've got a policy on anything with regards to M&A, so. I appreciate the question, though.
Shaun Kelley
Analyst
I had to ask. So let's move on. The other area would be on the gaming side. Eric, you talked a lot about Las Vegas on the hotel side and the environment, all the detail. By our calculation, I think, gaming revenues were down roughly 5% and maybe even if we adjust for hold, but can you just give us a sense of what you saw in the third quarter there? Because last quarter, I believe in the second quarter, you saw some real strength with some initiatives you're rolling out on the casino side. What's the status there? Is that a number that we should expect to see bounce back? And how do you see trends in the gaming customer?
Eric Hession
Management
Yes. It's a great question. We did see a lot of strength in the second quarter. We saw our gaming revenues, as you recall, on The Strip grow by about 7.5%, which is one of the better quarters that we've had. And then, of course, as you know in the third quarter, they fell off. We previewed it a little bit. Actually, at your conference, we had some slides that showed the VIP and VVIP segments down in the July and August periods. And unfortunately, that's the reality. Those two key segments' business were down. In the second quarter, they were up well. And as we head into the fourth quarter, we're seeing those two key components of our business up as well. So again, it is consistent with our belief that it was a 1-quarter dip in interest of coming to the city. There are a lot of variety of rationale for that, that we discussed over time from the activities that were going on. But the return of that piece of business as well as the demand in the hotel side gives us a lot of confidence as we look forward into 2019 and '20.
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Thomas Allen from Morgan Stanley. You may ask your question.
Thomas Allen
Analyst
So thinking about the third quarter, you've talked a lot about how the event calendar just didn't really shape up and that's why revenues declined to the way they did for the market. Are you seeing the market fill 2019 in a more aggressive way now and do you have more confidence around, not kind of conventions or city-wise, but more your event calendar?
Mark Frissora
Management
I think that for the third quarter, I think, we may have said this before, but Celine Dion had canceled 20 performances in the third quarter, which was a big hit for us at Caesars Palace, which is, as you know, our number one gaming casino here. So I think that, that was definitely a factor. And we don't anticipate to see anything like that happen in the future, but you never know because we got a lot of theaters, a lot of performances that are good. And right now, we're making sure that we have a robust calendar for our own and we think what we see so far, the visibility we have into 2019, which is not that far, frankly, I mean, it is not totally - you wouldn't be able to say that '19 is, you see you have a lot of visibility, but what we see so far, we're bullish on. Eric, if anything you want to add to that, please do.
Eric Hession
Management
I'd just add, after the learnings in the third quarter, we're obviously actively tracking it with a whole lot more specificity and we're crying to come up with an option to slide in additional acts at short notice. Typically, acts that don't require a lot of staging like comedians or other shows like that, that we can bring in to backfill when one of the major acts has to cancel shows. So we're trying to derisk that type of environment. In the fourth quarter, the shows from the city look quite good. We've seen MGM added a couple of shows recently that should drive additional visitation to the city and then we have good bookings at ours as well.
Thomas Allen
Analyst
And then, I think, I missed some of your comments on Atlantic City in your prepared remarks. Can you just repeat, how did that perform versus your expectation in the third quarter? And how are you thinking about your previous guide of the $40 million impact in the second half of this year?
Eric Hession
Management
We haven't altered the $40 million impact. We believe we were negatively impacted by about $20 million in the third quarter and we continue to expect about $20 million in the fourth. We will try our best to offset a lot of the revenue declines that we're seeing and reduce expenses where we can, but the reality is that with two new operators entering the market in a period of low demand due to the time of year, it makes operating fixed cost businesses very challenging, and so, we're continuing with our guidance of the $40 million impact and that's reflected in our updated Q4 and full year projections.
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Chad Beynon of Macquarie. You may ask your question.
Chad Beynon
Analyst
Mark, congrats on the last 4 years. I wanted to start with the guidance for the fourth quarter. You've still got $50 million EBITDA range out there. I think when you issued guidance back in July, it was a $50 million range. So given that here we are in November 1, in Vegas, you've mentioned that you've kind of filled your rooms with gaming customers, you weren't really taking much risk. Why still the $50 million range? And if you're able to provide any details on kind of what would put that closer to the top versus the bottom, that will be helpful.
Eric Hession
Management
It's a good question. And we did - we reduced the midpoint of the range by approximately $50 million to reflect the impact on the third quarter and we also kept the variance of the range at the same level. As you can see, we did come in lower than our expectations in the third quarter and we've also tried to provide what we think is a reasonable range for the fourth quarter to ensure that we're able to achieve the range even in the face of any unexpected headwinds that we might face. So given we are through 1 month from the revenue side, October looks quite strong, we haven't closed our books yet for the month and November and December look good here in Las Vegas as well. So we just wanted to make sure that we provided a range that was conservative enough for us to be able to ensure that we achieve.
Chad Beynon
Analyst
And then for the regionals, I guess, backing out Centaur and Atlantic City, pretty consistent EBITDA growth throughout the year, I believe, 8% to 10% or 11% per quarter and you've talked about the reduction of marketing cost and how that has gone towards the bottom line. How should we think about this in the fourth quarter and going forward? Are there still opportunities to reduce marketing further? Or do you think the comps are just so difficult that it might be hard to experience the same flow-through with revenue growth as you've seen in the first 3 quarters of the year?
Eric Hession
Management
We have had great success this year in terms of our marketing efficiency. The marketing department's been able to reduce marketing spend consistently across all 3 quarters. We would expect heading into the fourth quarter that we'd continue to be able to do that, particularly in the regional markets where it's less hotel-comp-centric. And next year, there is opportunity as well. We're currently putting together our plan and we're evaluating what we think we can do. We need to make sure that we don't lose profitable market share and that's an important distinction. There are certain segments of our customers that we are either marginally profitable or don't - could be unprofitable and those are the ones that we're trying to really pare back from a marketing perspective. We do have a number of technologies that we're going to introduce. The most important is our sales force initiative, which will come in, in the early part of next year and we think that, that's really going to enable us to continue this effort to push down our marketing expense and really allow us to target customers in a much more specific one-to-one dynamic.
Mark Frissora
Management
The only thing I'll add to that is the fourth quarter comparison year-over-year is a little rougher than, let's say, the first three quarters because we took a significant amount of cuts out that started actually in the fourth quarter of last year. Those kind of anniversary out here in November or December. But having said that, we - our whole marketing organizations continuously mine the data base, looking at our offers, determining whether or not which offers work, which don't. We're looking as many revenue initiatives as we are, efficiency initiatives. But the idea is to always look at them and always study and we keep studying and see what we can come up with. So I think, it's like one of those things where we're not prepared to give you numbers but the effort on continuous improvement is constant in the company.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Harry Curtis of Nomura. You may ask your question.
Harry Curtis
Analyst
I just had 1 quick question. Most of my questions have been answered. Turning back to Total Rewards, when you think about the typical Total Rewards customer that comes in, what is the total revenue and profit per occupied room lift, say, compared to an OTA customer? And the reason I'm asking is, assuming that it's substantially higher, do you see yourself getting a lot more active, trying to increase the weeks of Total Rewards customers so you don't run into the same kind of booking gap that you had in September?
Eric Hession
Management
Yes, it really depends on, ultimately, which segment of customer that we're letting into the casino for that particular day. So we rank our customers' worth in terms of their daily expected spend. And depending on the rate of the room on that particular day, we'll either let certain segments of customers have free rooms or they'll pay a certain amount and that's effectively how we yield it. So there's a little bit of nuanced answer there. The goal, however, is to make sure that we're trading off a cash room for a casino customer room where the profits of both of those customers are about the same. Otherwise, we should raise the price of one or the other to drive the profit. What I will say is, in particular, in November and as we head into December, where occupancy levels are relatively low, those incremental gaming customers have great value because you're trading them off against an occupied room. And so, in that sense, all of that gaming value is incremental plus those customers at that level will typically pay the resort fee, which more than offsets the cost to clean the room. So we believe that trade-off is very profitable approach and that's why we're leaning heavily into it into the fourth quarter.
Harry Curtis
Analyst
So Eric, you did mention the resort fee and I guess, I would follow up with a question on that. Have you seen pushback from group meeting planners in particular with the resort fee and do you plan on taking that up again for 2019?
Eric Hession
Management
It's a good question, Harry. When meeting planners for large meetings, typically shop around to numerous cities like San Francisco, Boston, New York and other convention-centric locations. Las Vegas is still a great bargain, regardless of whether you account for all the fees or how they're added in. Typically, they'll negotiate a rate as well as a minimum banquet spend and then that will include a store fee and other fees like that. So we don't see a lot of pushback from the meeting planners because they're looking at it as a total value package for their meeting or their trade show.
Harry Curtis
Analyst
Have you given any thought to some of the softer drive-in business from California? I'm wondering to what degree the resort fees, parking and so forth have kept some of those marginal visitors away?
Eric Hession
Management
It's definitely something we're looking at. We have - we're well aware that from both the analysts' perspective, investors' perspective and customer perspective that we need to watch and make sure that we're not inhibiting the demand by the fees more so than we're losing in terms of the ability to drive the incremental profit. So we went out and we've conducted a very large survey of both our customers and customers that are just visitors who would come in not part of the database. That data is being analyzed right now and we will use that to inform us going forward. So far, we don't believe that, that's the case, but it's certainly something we watch and something we take very seriously. We don't want to end up in a situation where we're depressing demand and impacting our profitability more so than we'd intended.
Harry Curtis
Analyst
Very good. And Mark, best of luck on your next adventure.
Mark Frissora
Management
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Robin Farley from UBS. You may ask your question.
Robin Farley
Analyst
Two things I wanted to ask. One of them Mark may have addressed a little bit already. But just looking at your EBITDA growth guidance for the full year and your reduced marketing expense accounts for kind of more than the entire amount of that EBITDA growth guidance. And so my question was, in Q4, that anniversaries and may be tougher to get that level and so I was sort of looking for what might drive your same-store EBITDA growth there? I don't know, it sounded like you didn't maybe want to put numbers on that, but I don't know if you had anything else, any other thoughts on that. And then I did have a question about Q3 as well.
Eric Hession
Management
I think you're talking about next year, Robin?
Robin Farley
Analyst
No, in other words, looking at your EBITDA growth guidance for 2018, the entire amount of the marketing reduction accounts for more than the entire EBITDA growth. In other words, the same-store EBITDA growth would have been down without the reduction in marketing cost. But what happens after Q4 or in Q4, when you anniversary that significant reduction in marketing expense? Kind of what becomes the driver for same-store EBITDA growth?
Mark Frissora
Management
So, obviously, our organic growth rate helps drive incremental same-store growth, so we do expect some - a lot of our gaming strategies to actually take an impact. We're improving our hold, for example, this year. We don't give specific numbers, but we have a very focused initiative around control of the hold and we try to take anything that we can and, whether it's improving the game mix equipment that we have on the floor, whether it is putting in a more impulse-oriented area of the floor. There's a number of initiatives we have that have been improving actually our overall gaming profitability. So that will be one of the drivers that we'll use in the fourth quarter that will help. And then in terms of just the general strategies around Centaur and looking at how we're going to drive incremental growth synergies there, I think, that will help - that will play itself out also in the fourth quarter. Eric, you want to add to that?
Eric Hession
Management
The only other thing I'd add, Robin, is that the marketing expenses that we reflect as a percentage of our gaming spend, that doesn't flow 100% to the bottom line. So a lot of that is in kind. It's beverage rounds, it's other types of complementaries. So the notion that it's 100% accretive to EBITDA, you need to profit adjust that figure.
Robin Farley
Analyst
And then, my question on Q3, you mentioned there were some decline in VIP and VVIP gaming segments in Q3. And I'm just wondering, is that tied to the group calendar issue that you mentioned? In other words, what would be kind of nonrecurring or behind - is that what you put in the bucket of nonrecurring or just one-time? And just thinking about your - I understand not wanting to give the RevPAR guidance because of the factors that can change your comps and things, but would you guide to kind of a cash rate for Q4 just to give a sense of where kind of cash demand is for the rooms aside from your changes in marketing?
Eric Hession
Management
Sure. To answer your first question, the customer mix that we receive into our casinos for a given month or even a quarter can be very volatile. So I wouldn't want to call it 1 time because it can certainly recur, but when you take in the portfolio of the business over the entire year period, it's certainly something that's an anomaly and something that we don't think is representative of the true business. In fact, when you look at the second quarter, we saw the exact opposite happening. And then when we look into the fourth quarter, we believe that the strength is coming back as well. So in that sense, it's second quarter up strong, third quarter down fairly significantly and in the fourth quarter, back. All averaged out to having reasonable growth here in Las Vegas from those casino segments. So overall, there are a lot of factors that drive those decisions by customers, but that's not a permanent decline that we're going to see and we wouldn't expected to happen every single year going forward.
Robin Farley
Analyst
And then I didn't know if you had any thoughts on the cash rate part of the question?
Eric Hession
Management
I'm sorry. Yes, regarding the guidance, we're evaluating what guidance we're going to provide for next year. We're not providing any hotel-related guidance for the fourth quarter, but as part of our efforts to try to make sure that we have the best indicators out for the analyst and investing community, we're evaluating whether we should provide an alternative metric like you suggested or something similar that we could help guide for 2019.
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research. You may ask your question.
Jared Shojaian
Analyst
First, just a quick clarification, in case I may be missing something. You gave fourth quarter hold-adjusted EBITDAR guidance. Was there any unusual hold activity in October that we need to be aware of in terms of the actual fourth quarter?
Eric Hession
Management
We haven't said anything about the current year hold. What we said was relative to the prior year. So we're assuming normal hold for the fourth quarter when we provided the guidance, Jared.
Jared Shojaian
Analyst
You said you're 90% booked in terms of your target group room nights for 2019. Can you just tell us how that compares to this time last year? And at what price point are those booked at? Eric, I think you had said solid increase, is that correct?
Eric Hession
Management
Yes. So the way that the group segment works is that we do book, say, an extra 20 to 30% room nights during the year, but we also have wash, meaning that somebody commits to a group of 1,000 room nights, they always - or not always but they typically come in a little bit lower. So to the extent that our room nights that we're booking in the year offset that wash, that's how you get to these really high numbers when you're entering the year. So the 90% is better than we typically run. It gives us confidence into next year and it lets us know that we can start really yielding that segment of business up. In terms of the rates, the rates are up heading into next year. And when we talk about that segment of business, we look at it as a combination of the rate that's charged as well as the banquets business because the banquet business is a very profitable component and we want the meeting planners to think of them in combination when they're booking the piece of business. You might book a lower-rated piece of business on a RevPAR basis, but take a much higher banquet component, and ultimately, the profitability could be better in that segment or vice versa.
Jared Shojaian
Analyst
And then just one last one for me, more higher-level. Given a lot of volatility in your store, I just want to ask about the potential opportunity to be added to the S&P 500. Have you had any conversations with them? I think in the past, they've had stipulations on GAAP profitability, which may be challenging for you to overcome just given the failed sale coming out of bankruptcy? So can you speak to that a little bit?
Eric Hession
Management
Yes, you are right. There are profitability requirements. We do have a headwind. We break it out in the materials from the failed sale and accounting treatment that we have and that does affect our GAAP EPS and does have a headwind in terms of our retaining profitability for the required number of quarters. That said, we think we posted positive GAAP earnings per share in this quarter. We do have a lot of charges, including the convert, which is a derivative of the share price, and so it makes it very difficult to predict earnings per share with respect to having this component that's a derivative of the actual trading value of our stock.
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Ms. Joyce Arpin for closing remarks.
Joyce Arpin
Management
Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining. We'll talk to you after we report our fourth quarter results next year.