David C. Adams
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thank you, Glenn. I'll begin by taking a few minutes to discuss the outlook across our end markets before we wrap up and move to Q&A. I'll start with an update on our commercial aerospace market, which continues to be one of our most stable growth drivers across our diverse end markets. Curtiss-Wright is well positioned for increased sales supported by the multi-year production up-cycle in this market. As you are aware, we provide a considerable array of products and services to this end market, and we continue to gain ground on the various legacy and newer platforms. Additionally, we are benefiting from the continued production rate increases across numerous Boeing and Airbus platforms, particularly for the Boeing 737 and 787 platforms. We expect this momentum to continue in 2014, but we also expect moderate growth in the regional jet market. Through our new market-facing commercial aerospace structure, we intend to leverage our sales channels and product portfolio to fuel new business wins in 2014. Overall, we continue to expect the OEM cycle will remain healthy for several more years. This supports our projections for sales growth of 6% to 10% in 2014 in the commercial aerospace market, unchanged from prior guidance. Next, to our general industrial market. Following the acquisitions of Arens, Williams and PG Drives, we have greatly expanded the breadth and scope of Curtiss-Wright's product portfolio and customer base within the industrial end market. We achieved the critical mass necessary to become a market driver. As a result, we are now the industry leader for both electronic throttle controls and electronic shifters to many of the world's leading medium and heavy duty truck OEMs. We expect solid demand for these products in 2014 based on the improved growth outlook for OEMs. Within the services side of our general industrial market, our Surface Technologies division expects to benefit from worldwide GDP growth as U.S. and European conditions continue to improve. We expect solid growth for our highly technical peening and coating services to domestic and international automotive customers, as well as the industrial gas turbine market. As a reminder, as worldwide economic conditions improve, we would expect overall stronger demand and sales volume for our surface treatment technologies continuing the progressively improving margin growth over time. As a result of the expected gains in our industrial businesses, we are projecting total general industrial market sales to grow 8% to 12% in 2014, which is unchanged from prior guidance. Next, an update in oil and gas, where we expect a solid sales contribution from Cimarron, continued growth in our global MRO business and higher sales in our international large projects business in 2014. Starting with our upstream market, Cimarron's production, processing and separation solutions for the exploration and production industry continue to be in high demand. Our efforts to utilize existing Houston operations to support Cimarron's rapidly growing demand, along with the implementation of lean and operational excellence initiatives, is expected to produce solid sales and improved profitability in 2014. Meanwhile, in our emission control devices business, we are awaiting approval from the U.S. government for certification of our 5 devices. All units have passed testing required to meet the EPA's new standard governing the destruction of harmful vapors. We also expect to see continued strong demand for our refinery-related MRO product offerings supporting ongoing maintenance needs. Growth in 2014 is expected to come from both U.S. and international markets. Finally, in the downstream large projects business, we received several new orders late in the fourth quarter of 2013 for coking equipment and services supporting international refineries. While the increase in demand is certainly a positive sign and will aid our 2014 performance, we remain cautious about forecasting any major downturn -- or turnaround at this time, as the majority of our downstream refining work is outside of the U.S. and subject to long approval cycles. Overall, we're projecting total oil and gas market sales to grow 11% to 15% in 2014, unchanged from prior guidance. Next, to power generation, starting with our new build business and the AP1000 program. We continue to make progress in the production and shipment of our reactor coolant pumps or RCPs for both the China and U.S. reactors. In China, we are currently working through the remanufacture of the first 8 RCPs and expect shipments to take place between the second and fourth quarter of 2014. In the U.S., we expect shipments of the first 4 RCPs to take place in the second half of this year. In addition, this past November, we received sign-off by our Chinese customer for a 2-year extension of the technology transfer agreement from our initial 2007 contract. Regarding our next AP1000 order, we continue to negotiate and finalize the contract language with the Chinese for a follow-on RCP order. We expect this to be a significant driver of future growth in our new build business for years to come. Shifting to our aftermarket nuclear business, we continue to see solid growth despite headwinds from Fukushima impacts, slow economic growth, rising natural gas prices and several plant closures. Leading enablers to our aftermarket success stories include organic technology advancements, which drove record new orders in 2013 in support of plant upgrades, refurbishment projects and obsolescence solutions. Our projects continued to reinforce Curtiss-Wright technology and QA infrastructures, addressing today's challenging plant obsolescence issues on a global scale. As a result, we fully expect to see continued demand for our products and services throughout this year. Curtiss-Wright also continues its success in capturing new awards resulting from NRC orders 1, 2 and 3, as it pertains to Fukushima response initiatives. We continue to experience solid demand for Curtiss-Wright equipment in support of existing operating reactors, and we also expect an increase in planned outages to aid our growth this year. Overall, we are projecting total power generation market sales to grow 2% to 6% in 2014, unchanged from prior guidance. Next, to the defense market. Following the passage of the 2014 omnibus spending bill, we have some clarity to the defense budget for the first time in several years. It also suggests a more promising year for the defense industry, particularly for the areas where Curtiss-Wright has leading positions such as in naval defense, defense electronics and UAVs. In naval defense, Virginia-class submarine production remains solid at a pace of 2 ships per year. We recently definitized a new contract for block IV generators supporting the Virginia-class submarine, which should benefit our revenue for the next several years. Elsewhere, based on timing of production on the CVN-79 aircraft carrier, we expect our nuclear propulsion sales to be flat this year. The recent decision to maintain the full carrier fleet and refuel the CVN-73 carrier should produce an opportunity for Curtiss-Wright to secure a refueling and complex overhaul or RCOH contract. This could provide about $30 million in additional future revenue beyond 2014. Next, to the aerospace and ground defense markets, we are expecting modest improvements in our aerospace defense markets led by higher embedded computing sales. Our key platforms continue to be funded with minimal budget impact. Those increases are expected to more than offset weaker domestic ground defense sales as this market continues to be impacted by lower incoming order rates, resulting in decreased sales across various platforms. While the domestic market remains weak, we have shifted our focus to higher-growth opportunities such as upgrade programs serving the international ground market. In addition, Curtiss-Wright's defense business is much leaner now than in the past. This is the result of our proactive operational restructuring and cost reduction initiatives during the past 2 years, which will continue to provide improved profitability. In summary, based on the recent decisions out of Washington, we now have improved visibility for the next 2 years, which keeps us confident in our guidance for total defense market sales to grow 1% to -- 1% to 5% in 2014, unchanged from prior guidance. So to recap, we're pleased with our outlook for solid sales growth of 6% to 8% in 2014, most of which will be organic. We expect the growth in sales and our continued focus on improving operating margin to lead to strong double-digit increases in operating income and earnings per share. This solid outlook, compared with our ongoing operational improvement initiatives as laid out in December, provide us confidence to raise our key -- free cash flow projections for 2014. As for the status of those operating margin initiatives, we have solid plans in place across the organization. By far, this is the #1 initiative across all of Curtiss-Wright, and a major undertaking, which we expect will lead to significantly positive results. Our operating teams are disciplined, focused and aligned with the goal of driving toward top-quartile operating margin performance. To ensure that we reach our goals, our compensation programs have been aligned accordingly. Our leadership team is excited and energized, and the buy-in has been outstanding in support of the One Curtiss-Wright vision. We remain focused on achieving our aggressive operational goals through the measures outlined at Investor Day. As a reminder, we discussed several strategic margin drivers that will take us on the path to a 14% operating margin. This includes our competitiveness programs, where we are intently focused on generating improvements in operational excellence and lean, as well as achieving significant supply chain savings. Together, these are our 2 largest opportunities regarding our supply chain, we expect to spend about $1.3 billion this year. This clearly needs to be condensed. We have the knowledge base in place and with the added focus and drive of our operational leaders, we will achieve significant savings in this area. We have ramped up the focus across all of our operating units, and as noted in December, we have assembled a team of our best practitioners to work through these challenges, including the creation of both supply chain and lean councils. Through One Curtiss-Wright, we will generate significant measurable savings in these areas, and you will see the direct benefit through solid operating margin expansion starting this year. We also expect to drive synergies from our efforts in shared services. We have Shared Service Centers up and running in Costa Rica and Charlotte, with initiatives across our IT, finance and HR organizations. We are making solid progress in all 3 areas, and you will see the contribution that these savings benefit our results in 2014 and beyond. We are also working on various portfolio rationalization opportunities to divest those operations considered non-core or not expected to meet our financial objectives over the planning period. This is a disciplined process, and we expect this addition by subtraction will play a significant role as early as the second quarter in helping us achieve our operating margin expansion objectives. Another initiative is our segment focus in getting some of our underperforming facilities to reach their full potential. This is one of the largest components of our margin expansion plan, as even our best performers have room to improve. The results from these actions will be demonstrable. We will also discuss strategic growth initiatives across each of our segments. This includes the right investments in the right markets to drive our future growth. They are specific and measurable for each of our operational leaders. We expect these initiatives to help drive steady organic sales growth of 5% to 6%, which in turn will help contribute to our operating margin expansion. While we had identified and established these plans in late 2013, we are well on our way to executing these initiatives. I review the progress of each and every one of these items with the entire executive management team on a monthly basis. Again, the goals are aggressive and the operational leaders will be compensated based on their performance. This is an achievable plan, and we intend to make it happen. As we go through 2014, I will provide continued updates on our progress, at least on a quarterly basis, during future earnings conference calls. The end results, as you will begin to see, is evidence of our steady operating margin improvement as we cross into the upper quartile versus our peers and continue to drive to 14%. Moving on, as you have likely noted, we recently completed 2 smaller bolt-on acquisitions. The first was CCRS, which closed in January. CCRS specializes in providing high technology protective coatings and component repairs for turbine engines. We expect to bundle CCRS' technologies with our own high-technology services offering. This will allow us to leverage sales opportunities in Europe, and capitalize on opportunities for technology insertion into our worldwide service network. The second was NPSI, which we acquired a few days ago. This acquisition helps to expand our nuclear manufacturing and test operations by providing an enhanced sales channel to Canadian-designed nuclear power plants, further enhancing our industry-leading worldwide distribution network. Overall, these are excellent examples of the type of acquisitions that we are currently seeking, high-technology, profitable bolt-on acquisitions that provide significant synergy opportunities in our targeted areas of growth. Furthermore, once we move past the initial purchase accounting costs, these acquisitions will support our objective of operating margin expansion. In addition, the significant increase in the dividend, as noted earlier, reflects our confidence in the company's ability to continue to deliver strong revenue and profitability growth as we execute our strategic plan. Furthermore, we are reentering the market with a restart to our share repurchase program. As previously communicated, we will achieve a balanced capital allocation strategy between distributions to shareholders, capital expenditures and strategic bolt-on acquisitions. Overall, we expect our relentless focus upon margin expansion and free cash flow generation to produce long-term shareholder value. At this time, I'd like to open up today's conference call for questions.