Bill Boor
Analyst · Jay McCanless of Wedbush. Your line is now open
Yes, Jay, I think this is a really important question because I think there's noise in what people kind of see at a headline level. First point I want to make is that if you really dissect the industry shipments and you can do this with publicly available HUD shipment data, if you really dissect it and look at it on a regional basis, even though the industry was up, I think I'm talking year-over-year for this discussion, even though the industry was up 15%, yes, I think it was 14.7%. When you look at it regionally, the range of increases and decreases is more than you might expect. And just to give you a feel, the East South Central, which includes Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi just looking at the numbers here that was up 50%. You can trust that to an area like East North Central Illinois, Michigan, Ohio which was down 31%. So I'm belaboring the point, but if you dissect that you really have to look at how any given manufacturer lines up with their exposure to those regions to get a clear picture of whether they stayed with market or not. Now setting that aside to really understand the answer to your question, the other thing I'd say, and I'm again working year-over-year numbers. You need to look at both shipments and backlog changes. And when you do you really get a clear picture of what underlying demand and a more normalized view of share is. So let's talk about last year. Let's remember where we were in the industry last year. The context behind our shipments then we shipped just roughly 4,500 units. And during that quarter, our backlog dropped $180 million. So if you remember, we are kind of in a really declining backlog environment. So roughly 40% of our volume that quarter represented backlog depletion. Now this quarter was the opposite. We shipped about 3,900 a little over 3,900 units. Our backlog grew $30 million. So we shipped below the new order level. Why? Because again at the beginning we lost days due to a lack of backlog in certain plants. So I'm not I mean that explains our year-over-year comparison in the context of underlying demand. It's clearly stronger now. But the remaining question is why didn't the overall HUD market show the same trends, right? We don't have visibility into industry backlogs but just if you just divided our shipments last year by HUD shipments, it would have suggested a 21% market share. Frankly, that's higher than our share of capacity, that's higher than our market share over time. So the only thing that I can conclude from that is that while we had the backlog and we're still shipping at a relatively high rate and depleting that backlog, others in the industry presumably didn't have the same backlog. They had kind of already hit a point where they had to start pulling back. So we outshipped the industry in that period of time. So I hope this isn't too lengthy. I'm trying to think it's a really critical thing because I think it would be easy to misunderstand the shipment comparison. So what's the point? When you look at both shipment and backlog changes, you really get a more normalized view of underlying market share and underlying demand. And despite the shipment numbers, our underlying demand is significantly greater now than it was a year ago. So now that plants going forward, this was a quarter with some transition and I'm going to keep saying that, because again you had a company like us that had to take some downtime at the beginning, but then was getting back to higher schedules at the end. So once the industry kind of reestablishes a workable backlog, you're going to see the dynamic settle out and you're going to see people reflecting more consistent, if you want to call it market share type ratios. So I hope that wasn't too much and I'm happy to answer questions, but I really -- at face value if people look at the year-over-year shipment numbers, I know that in my opinion you could really get off track just looking at those headlines. So, yeah, I threw a lot at you. Come back at me if questions, if any of that didn't make sense.