Bill Boor
Analyst · CJS Securities. Your line is open
Welcome, and thank you for joining us today to review our third quarter results. While the earnings release focuses on year-over-year comparisons in this market, I believe the quarter-to-quarter developments are more relevant to understanding current market dynamics. It's not to disregard any insights and bigger picture takeaways regarding the dynamics a year ago relative to today. Last year, we were a couple of quarters into the effect of rising interest rates, industry backlogs were higher than now, but they were declining rapidly and the pace and direction of backlogs is generally more important than the level. As we wrapped up this third quarter, rates [Indiscernible]. In fact, on a same plant basis, we have now seen five quarters of increasing net orders and backlogs are stabilized, albeit at low capacity utilization. So while economic uncertainty remains, the trends are pointed in the right direction as we emerge from the typically slower winter and holiday months. The positive trending we're seeing in the market is coming from the dealer channel. Their traffic remains healthy and conversions are improving. Buyers are adjusting to the now steadier interest rates and to the reality of how much home they can afford. The underlying need for affordable housing is coming to the forefront and driving modest but meaningful quarter-to-quarter order improvements. As discussed over the past few quarters, community orders continue to be off considerably. As industry backlogs decreased in the latter part of 2022, deliveries to communities accelerated, which resulted in excess community inventories going into calendar 2023. The issue is not whether there are buyers or renters once a given unit is put into service. It's how quickly the units can be permitted and set to reduce the inventory and resume more normal orders. In other words, placements are occurring at a much higher pace than orders until balances reestablished. The natural question is, when will this balance be achieved? Of course, varies by operator and location. However, the outlook for this calendar year is considerably better than last based on our discussions with community operators and developers. We expect we will see increased community orders as the year unfolds. Against that market backdrop, we've stabilized our backlog over the past three quarters by matching production to the pace of orders. Our capacity utilization remained steady this quarter at about 60%. And while the value of orders in the backlog declined from $170 million last quarter to $160 million in Q3, the number of units in the backlog increased 3%. The quarter ending backlog represents five to seven weeks of production, consistent with last quarter. That stability is an important point coming through the winter months and heading into what we typically would expect to be better selling months. We have a number of plants operating at reduced schedules that are looking to increase when the market supports. On the margin side, pricing has been relatively stable. While our overall factory-based housing gross margin declined 0.8% sequentially, this was driven more by the cost side and how cost of goods sold flowed through our manufacturing and retail sales. Big picture margins remained healthy at 22.4% in our housing segment, and prices are continuing to hold for the most part. Overall, our quarterly revenue was down about 1% sequentially to $447 million and pretax income dropped from $52 million last quarter to $44 million. Before repurchases and after acquisitions, cash flow was about positive $25 million. We used $50 million to repurchase shares, which resulted in our cash balance being down $24 million relative to last quarter. Before handing the call over, it was good to see many of you at the Louisville show a couple of weeks ago, among a number of other innovative homes, we brought our new Anthem series Duplex to Louisville. The Anthem is the first nationally available HUD-approved multifamily unit. We're very excited about the affordability benefits these homes offer and the interest level has been tremendous, particularly with developers and community operators. I also wanted to recognize and welcome Dustin Ying and the people from Kentucky Dream homes to the Cavco family. Kentucky Dream Homes operates five well-managed sales centers in Kentucky and Florida, and we joined forces through an acquisition in the third quarter. Dustin and his team are strong operators and great people to be associated with, and we're very excited to be on the same team. With that, I'd like to turn it over to Allison to discuss the financial results in more detail.