Earnings Labs

Lionheart Holdings (CUB)

Q1 2023 Earnings Call· Mon, Aug 8, 2022

$10.77

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to City Union Bank 1Q FY '23 Post Results Analyst Conference Call hosted by AMBIT Capital. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Pratik Matkar from AMBIT Capital. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Pratik Matkar

Analyst

Good evening, everyone, and welcome to 1Q FY '23 Earnings Call of City Union Bank. On this call, we have Dr. N. Kamakodi, MD and CEO; and Mr. V. Ramesh, CFO of the bank. Thank you, sir, for giving us opportunity to host this call. I will now request Dr. N. Kamakodi, sir, to take us through the opening remarks, and then we will open the floor for question and answer. Over to you, sir.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Hello? Can you hear me?

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir. Please proceed.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Okay. So sorry about that. Good evening, everyone. Hearty welcome to all of you for this conference call to discuss audited financial results of City Union Bank for the first quarter ended 30th of June 2022. So unaudited year. So basically, unaudited limited revenue financial results for the City Union Bank for the first quarter ended 30th June 2022. The Board approved the results today, and I assume you all have received the copies of the results and presentation. I hope all of you have received our AGM notices as well as annual report for financial year 2022 through e-mail. I take this opportunity to invite you all for participating in the Annual General Meeting to be held on 18th of August 2022 through virtual mode. On the management side, we have a new director on our Board. Shri Gurumoorthy Mahalingam was co-opted as additional director on the Board of our bank, which effect from 6th of July 2022. He is a career regulator in the financial sector, having worked for 34 years in RBI, holding the position of Executive Director at the time of retirement, and 5 years in SEBI as whole time Board member. He holds a Master's degree in Statistics and Operations from IIT Kanpur and an MBA in International Banking from U.K. He has extensive experience in banking regulation and supervision as well as in market regulation and operations. In fact, he was handling the Reserve Bank of India's treasury when he was Executive Director. His appointment in the Board would be beneficial to the bank, particularly in governance, regulatory matters, finance, ForEx, treasury, et cetera. Coming to the performance, the first quarter ended well in almost all parameters, be it growth, NPA, both on slippage and recovery. In every parameter, the performance is satisfactory. Even…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Rohan Mandora from Equirus Securities.

Rohan Mandora

Analyst

Just wanted to understand, when we are increasing the [Technical Difficulty] and in this quarter, [Technical Difficulty]. So what gives us the confidence in being able to increase the guidance?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Your voice is not clear. Can you come closer to the mic and speak?

Rohan Mandora

Analyst

Sir, is this better?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Okay. Better.

Rohan Mandora

Analyst

Yes. So sir, I was saying on your loan growth guidance, we have increased the guidance to 15% to 18% from 12% to 15%. And in this quarter, overall growth on the loans was slightly soft on a sequential basis. So sir, what gives you the confidence in being able to increase the guidance on loan growth? What has changed in this 1 quarter, if you could highlight things around that?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, it is basically that, as we had been talking with you all during the earlier quarters, we had not pressed the growth pedal at all as we felt there were a lot of uncertainties. Even though the, let's say, growth from the -- I mean, the impact of the COVID was over and there were also uncertainties because of the oil price and inflation and all, we were taking a guarded approach. After looking into the performance of the -- our book and also on discussion with the customers and all, it is giving us sufficient comfort that we can now go for slightly accelerated growth. That's why we have given the acceleration from 12% to 15% to 15% to 18%. If -- next couple of quarters, if things look -- get view of better comfort, then we will definitely -- we will not miss the opportunity, if at all, we want to press the growth pedal and see. But as of now, it looks as if we, let's say, go with the pressing the growth pedal towards the third and fourth quarter, we should be able to achieve the, let's say, mid- to high double-digit, that is within 15 to 18 percentage growth for the year as a whole. This is based on our comfort on both environment and with the conviction that we will start pushing for the growth.

Rohan Mandora

Analyst

And sir, we have seen good trends in the treasury where we have not booked any losses for the current quarter as well. So sir, at what level of yields are we protected and from when there could be a possibility of MTM ahead?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, basically, as I explained during the, I think, what you call [ about the ] treasury, our duration is very low in our AFS book and all the short-dated securities, whatever we are keeping that are basically maturing in the next 18 to 24 months. So actually speaking, let's say, this is basically the -- we are holding the security at a discount compared to the face value though, there is a difference between the market value and our book value for which we are taking the notional provisioning. When the, let's say, maturity of these securities happens, that is going to be the reversal of these books. Honestly speaking, the overall impact because of this, let's say, movement of treasury yield, even though there could be the sort of smaller provisioning making here and there, we are, to a greater extent, protected because of the yield movement. And we learned our hard lesson to a couple of decades back during 2004 because of the yield movement, and that has been properly embedded into our treasury policy, and that's why with this comfort and confidence I am telling you this.

Rohan Mandora

Analyst

Sure, sir. And sir, lastly, just 2 questions on recovery part. One, the recovery from return of assets this quarter, is there any large accounts? Or is it more granular? And second, the provision reversals that will happen with SpiceJet, will it be used to increase the PCR? Or will it be consumed against normal NPA incrementally?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Yes. Basically, let's say, the -- what was your first question?

Rohan Mandora

Analyst

Recovery from return of assets.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Yes, yes, yes. We had one recovery from a reasonably big account of about INR 40 crores to INR 45 crores out of this INR 90-odd crores recovery we had made. But we have -- we feel overall number, let's say, the live plus technical written-off, together, that number will be staying around, let's say, around the same region as we move forward. Coming to answer your question on the SpiceJet, we feel we will take a call towards the end of the current year, depending upon the recovery and the things like that. See, actually speaking, we have taken this provision as the contingency provision, keeping in mind about this particular account. So we will take a call how to deal with that maybe towards the end of the current year when substantial recovery should have come from this account.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Madanagopal Ramu from Sundaram Mutual.

Madanagopal Ramu

Analyst

Sir, my first question is on, you gave certain numbers on the restructured book. Broadly from what you said, if I understood rightly, except for 15% of the book, mostly others have started to pay, and there are no concerns. Is the understanding right? That's what...

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Yes.

Madanagopal Ramu

Analyst

Okay. And what is the sense on this 15% book, sir? Is there a chance of slipping here? And what is it -- how do we see recovery here?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, the due date for this book has not yet started. They have -- maybe some of them have another 2, 3 months to go and all. They want to utilize this particular [ write-off ]. So that's why I told -- so our expected slippage percentage to the closing advances for the current year should be around the 2 to 2.5 percentage, almost similar to whatever we had during the pre-COVID period, which will include the ECLGS, which will include restructured advances and which will include other normal regular advances also. So there is -- with this broader number in -- at the side, there is no need to go for the half-splitting of the individual components.

Madanagopal Ramu

Analyst

Okay. Great. Nice to hear that. Second, you mentioned on the digital initiatives, really good to see. And there are 2 things that people -- banks are trying to achieve there. One is customer service, which we are already doing, and we can see that. The second is ability to cross-sell and bring in new customers, create a funnel to bring in new customers to bring higher growth in the future using digital initiative. What is happening on the [indiscernible]? With all the digital initiatives that you are taking, you think a reasonable amount of contribution on cross-selling and new products can add to our loans in the future?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, basically, it's how we look at this, let's say, starting from the even customer onboarding to all the transaction, as you said, that the customers that we have partly taken care of. We have been making, let's say, continuous initiatives in terms of, let's say, your, what is that, data analytics part and all. Those initiatives are also parallelly happening. And they are already, let's say, doing some contribution in terms of cross-selling and all. That's why, let's say, the initiatives on the analytics and all are also parallelly happening.

Madanagopal Ramu

Analyst

Okay. But at this point, it's too early to, say, consider any big contribution in terms of loan growth or any other big fee income growth coming in from the cross-selling opportunities?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Definitely, it will be there. Let's say, the one thing which I want to clearly say is, particularly on the growth front, using analytics, the -- let's say, the contribution on growth for the SMEs by analytics is going to be lower than the contribution analytics can happen in a personal loan. So since our concentration is on what you call SMA loans and all, yes, they're definitely held for making their, for example, let's say, the cross-selling opportunity for our existing customers. They also help us to have better risk management in terms of credit sanctioning and all, which are also parallelly happening. It is -- the contribution is going to not just on the growth, it is going to be across all parameters, including growth, risk management, fraud prevention, cross-sell, everything.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Mona Khetan from Dolat Capital.

Mona Khetan

Analyst

So my first question is on the OpEx side. So if I look at your cost-to-asset ratio, pre-COVID, it averaged at around 2.1% or so. And last fiscal, it was 1.9%, in FY '22. So you've highlighted that per branch, employee requirement has come down. But at the same time, there will be employee additions during this year to support growth. So given this backdrop, what sort of cost to assets could we expect from a steady-state perspective for this fiscal as well as going forward?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, these sort of things, let's say, we don't have a target and all. So these employee costs and all are depending upon, let's say -- we already told you we'll be opening about 50 to 75 basis points -- I mean, 50 to 75 new branches and all. So depending upon the start of, let's say, extra branches opened and growth opportunities and all, these sort of things come. And honestly speaking, you have to make your own intelligent assumptions on that. So there is a long-term average on those front around the number which you are telling. So we don't get into like too much of half-splitting into this number. So we only like -- overall ROA numbers we track and overall other parameters we track, and we don't take any decision or implement any -- execute any decision having these things on mind.

Mona Khetan

Analyst

Okay. Sure. Got it. But broadly trying to understand whether cost to assets could decline because of the benefit of lower requirement per branch. Or could it, say, come back to pre-COVID levels over time as things normalize?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

It will be somewhere in between.

Mona Khetan

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Got it. Secondly, if I look at the restructured book, so it has come down from INR 2,200 crores to about INR 2,000 crores, a decline of INR 200 crores over time. So just wanted to understand how much of this could have slipped and how much of this could have been probably repaid, et cetera.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, the -- in Q1, NPA slippage from the restructured book is about INR 57 crores.

Mona Khetan

Analyst

Okay. And cumulatively, how much would it be including, say, last quarter? Or would this be broadly the number?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, the same number during the fourth quarter was INR 44 crores.

Mona Khetan

Analyst

Okay, sir. Got it. Got it. So about INR 100 crores or so has slipped so far. Got it. Sure.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Renish Hareshbhai Bhuva from ICICI Securities.

Renish Bhuva

Analyst

Congrats on a great set of numbers. So sir, my first question is on the employee count. So from last 3, 4 quarters, we are seeing the total employee base declining quarter-by-quarter. And if I have to look at last 1 year trend, we have almost sort of sliced that number by 500 people. And since now we are targeting for a relatively higher growth in FY '23, I mean, do you feel we need to ramp up the employee base in next 2 quarters? Or do you feel the existing infrastructure is good enough to sort of give us the kind of growth which we are expecting right now?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Definitely, there is going to be an increase in the headcount, considering both the new sort of 8 branches, which need to be opened -- 50 to 75 branches, and also, this incremental growth opportunity, which we anticipate.

Renish Bhuva

Analyst

Okay. Okay. So sir, I mean, the last 1-year rationalization was more of a, let's say, attrition and we are not hiring back? Or how one should look at it basically?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Exactly. That's how -- about 8 to 10 percentage attrition, whatever that is coming, we did not, let's say, ramp up.

Renish Bhuva

Analyst

Got it, sir. Got it. And sir, last question on the ECLGS book, okay? So if I remember correctly, last quarter, we had added, right, SMA 1 and 2 in this portfolio was 1.5% in SMA 1 and 0.5% SMA 2. So if you can just tell us the corresponding number for this quarter?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, the total -- see the -- basically, the SMA 2 number for retail portion currently is INR 222 crores.

Renish Bhuva

Analyst

INR 222 crores?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Yes.

Renish Bhuva

Analyst

Okay. Okay. And we have disbursed almost INR 26.5 billion, right?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Overall. And here, when we say INR 222 crores, this will be the total exposure of the borrowers, including the other loans also. Be clear about that.

Renish Bhuva

Analyst

Okay. I see. This is the total exposure. So which is then...

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Even though the ECLGS balance is INR 2,500 crores, the other balances, put together, these borrowers together, they have a total exposure of INR 13,687 crores, of which, SMA 2 portion is only INR 222 crores.

Renish Bhuva

Analyst

Got it, sir. Got it, sir. And sir, you did mention about the SMA 2 number for the entire book at 2%. And I think the same number was 1.4% in last quarter. So is there any seasonal...

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Those numbers will fluctuate and as year-end, that means you will be having definitely increased effort, and that fluctuation is nothing material.

Renish Bhuva

Analyst

Got it. So one should not look too much into this number?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Don't too much, [ absolutely. ]

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Jai Mundhra from B&K Securities.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Sir, 2 things. One on yield, right? So I think if you can share the proportion of EBLR and MCLR book as of this quarter.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Yes. About 65 percentage of our loan book is in EBLR and the 25 percentage is in MCLR. And the balance, fixed and NPA and other things.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Sorry, how much was in EBLR? I missed that.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

65 percentage is on EBLR.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Right. So even last quarter, it was similar number. And then, sir, EBLR would have moved up. And you would have also passed or at least starting to see...

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

No. It is not that the entire increase in rate has been passed on. So with some amount of cushion on other parameter, about, let's say, half of that might have got transferred.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Right. Sir, I mean, some amount would be transferred, right? But if I look at yield on advances, on quarter, it seems they have declined by 2 basis points.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Basically, you will see that impact in the second quarter.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Correct. So there could be some lead/lag, which I have said, but more -- I mean, I just wanted to understand the fact that you would not have reduced the MCLR, right, or you would not have reduced the EBLR.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Yes. No, no. It was not because of the MCLR. It was basically because of, let's say, the increased, let's say, reduction which we had considered for some portfolio and all for which we have not given reduction in the past. So those sort of considerations had to be given.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Right. Or is there any other loan book...

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Yes. And also the gold loan part, which is about [ 1/5 ] of our portfolio, the average yield is lower than the -- yield of gold loan is lower than our average yield.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Understood. Understood. And sir, out of the 65% EBLR, what could be the split of repo and [indiscernible]?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Almost everything is repo only.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Okay. Understood. And then, sir, is it safe to assume that at least the initial 90 basis point increase, that would have been effective mostly, let's say, beginning August?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

No. Overall, out of that 90 basis points, at the maximum, about 40 basis points would have got, let's say, transmitted.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Okay. Understood. Second question is, sir, on your treasury. So in your comments, you had mentioned that the domestic treasury contribution is some INR 51 lakhs, but we have done fairly well on the treasury gains. So in the earlier calls, you had mentioned that this is integrated treasury. So if you can elaborate more, sir, that what is the profit generation, which is outside of domestic treasury and which is yielding phenomenal results.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, basically, what has happened is that ForEx, let's say, the exchange profit what we call, we have made about INR 63 crores for the first quarter. The same thing was about INR 53 crores in first quarter last year and about INR 59 crores in the fourth quarter. Even on the, what you call, interest front, let's say, one of the things why interest was not going for the [indiscernible] if you did not make mark-to-market. We went for the far better security is the, let's say, advantaged in the interest income basically. So if we consider as I said -- so that's why I said to you that like even though I have provided about -- I had mark-to-market depreciation of INR 30 crores, about 60, 70 percentage of that will be coming back to me in 18 to 24 months. It's mainly because of this residual maturity and things that. So if you consider all the parameters fully from the treasury, be it interest income or be it the -- your, what you call, depreciation because of the abnormal movement of your -- adverse movement of your bond deal, overall, things have been, let's say, managed in the decent way, and yields -- income had been maximized.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Sir, this ForEx gain, is this proprietary trading or this is done on behalf of the client and the bank earned fee? Is this the [ naturally ] or this is like trading income?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Yes. It is a small portion, but majority of that is the parts of what you call your integrated treasury operation where you buy dollar and invest there and also cover it by the forward. Whenever you have, let's say, arbitrage compared to the yield, what you can get in the domestic market vis-à-vis what you can get in the overseas market, under that, the forward premium will become the foreign currency profit.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Okay. Understood. And just a small data point, sir, on SMA, you mentioned INR 820 crores is SMA 2 only, right? This is SMA 1 plus 2 put together.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

No, no, no. See, the overall SMA 2 is 2%.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Right. Okay. Any number for SMA 1, sir? I think earlier we used to have 5%, 6% roughly.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

No. It's about 2.41 percentage in SMA 1, which sequentially reduced from 2.79 percentage in the 31st March 2022. And comparatively during the last year, around the same period, it was 3.74 percentage in SMA 1 and 3.34% in SMA 2.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Right. The last question is around deposit. So when you're looking to increase credit growth from, let's say, 9% right now to 15%, 18%, on deposit side, you are also running, as of now, running at 7%, 8%, 9% Y-o-Y. How are you seeing the competition in the retail deposit side on both SAAR and [ ED ] because, of course, system-level deposits growth is slightly sluggish. And when you have 15%, 18% credit growth, what is the sense that you are getting on the retail deposit side. And any increase in the competitiveness recently because of the [ large corporate ] banks' individual [ sales? ]

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

As you might have seen, the CASA growth for the system is 25 percentage for us. See, CASA has grown between 30th of June 2021 to 30th June 2022 at about 25 percentage. We had only -- we manage the rates of retail term deposits at such a rate that -- so that it doesn't grow so much and where surplus we have to invest in the government securities and once again going for the depreciation and things like that. So we manage the ALM pretty well. And even today, I can grow my loan book by about INR 2,000 crores to INR 2,500 crores without increasing INR 1 crore of deposits from the surplus liquidity position what we have. So we have -- we will have sufficient time to manage the credit growth and take appropriate actions to increase our deposits accordingly.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Right. [Technical Difficulty]

Operator

Operator

Sir, your voice is breaking up in between, Jai Mundhra.

Jai Mundhra

Analyst

Yes. So as I was saying, sir, how are you seeing the listed deposit rate [Technical Difficulty] basis point [Technical Difficulty] how much would be the total deposit base based on broader yield movement?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, the RBI rates have definitely given a clarity on the direction of the both yield movement and also deposit rate CASA movement. But there will definitely be a lag factor on that. And we expect, let's say, the -- I mean, the growth in deposit rates is following with some amount of large with the -- that of the yield movement. And towards the end of the, let's say, financial year, we expect for the incremental deposits, which you have to be very careful in [ accounting ] that, we'll have at least not less than maybe around 40 to 50 basis points from the current level for the system as a whole.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Prashant Kumar from Sunidhi Securities & Finance Limited. Prashant Kumar;Sunidhi Securities & Finance Limited;Research Analyst: My question is on -- again, on the liquidity side. As your CD ratio reached already until around 84%, so as per, sir, your, old guidance, accelerated credit growth would be around -- 15% to 18%, and so the credit growth will outpace deposit growth with wide margin. So are you going to finance that credit growth by redemption of investment? If you could give some color on the balance sheet movement like deposit advance and investment mix for FY '23. And at what level of CD ratio would be comfortable?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, I have answered all your, let's say, almost all your questions earlier, but I will once again reiterate. I can go for another INR 3,000 crores of loan book increase around, let's say, INR 2,500 at least without increasing my deposits even by a single rupee. How it is going to come? I have surplus government securities and also overseas deposits, which will be maturing. And by using these government surplus securities, I can borrow by pledging that from the RBI. That is the -- I would say, I can go for the thing. Similarly, I have almost -- most of my refinance window also is opening. So I will always ensure that my credit growth doesn't get hampered by the nonavailability of the deposits. So I can even go up to the CD ratio of about 90 percentage, which we have done in the 89, 90 and all had happened in the past during the pre-COVID [ scene ]. And we have -- and already, since we have the surplus, let's say, of capital funds also, that supports us in this sort of thing. So we can -- all the surplus government securities, whatever we have, we can always borrow from RBI by bridging that, which will be the source of my liquidity, if at all I needed that. But looking into the overall trend and all, I will have sufficient time to, let's say, manage my liability side, particularly my retail term deposits.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of [ Abhilash Hiran ] , individual investor.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Hello? Am I audible?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Yes. Absolutely. Go ahead.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Sir, can you tell what is the percentage of our business that is coming from [ DSC ] and what are -- and what is coming direct from customers?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

We don't have any [ DSC ] as a concept. The entire business is direct from the customers to the bank. No intermediary in between.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Sir, so can you explain, sir, what is the cost of setting up a branch in Tamil Nadu and outside Tamil Nadu?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Basically, it will be about, let's say, 23 lakhs per branch or so. And it will be, by and large, the same anywhere in the country.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Okay. So irrespective of...

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Yes. There could be changes because of, I mean, type of location, for example, whether it is urban or metro, that sort of difference will be there.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Right. And sir, what is the...

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

That's also on rent and not much on the setting up costs.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Right. And sir, what is the general breakeven period that we take after setting up a branch?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Basically, the Tamil Nadu branches will break even between about 1.5 years or so. And for other set of branches, typically, it used to take about 2.5 to 3 years. Average, you can keep up to 2 years.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Okay. Right. So sir, you had mentioned in the past that we generally have a much stronger role in the rural, like the Tier 2 and Tier 3 geographies vis-à-vis the metro and the city parts. So what reason for that rate -- what are the reasons for our dominance in the Tier 2 and the Tier 3 geography?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, you don't say rural. You said rightly, the Tier 2 and the Tier 3. The -- our target market, particularly the -- I mean, if you can clearly see, the MSME, commercial trading and agriculture together constitute, say, about 70, 75 percentage of our loan book, which is our core breadwinner. And the presence of this segment is more in the semi-urban and Tier 2 and the Tier 3 towns more than the metros.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of [ Neil Mehta ] from Investec.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Am I audible?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Can you come a little bit closer? It is not clear.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Am I audible now?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

It is better.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Sir, my question was on the slippages. So quarter-on-quarter, we witnessed an increase in our gross slippages. If you could explain the reason for this increase?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Sorry, repeat your question, please?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

So my question is on the gross slippages. So quarter-on-quarter, we have witnessed an increase in our slippages. If you could describe the reasons for the same?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, don't read too much into the quarterly numbers and all. You had a much higher number, say, for example, even in the second and third quarter. Even first to second and third quarter had been very high in the last year, and which reduced substantially towards the end of the -- in the fourth quarter. So we have shared our expectations that year as a whole, we should be having between 2 and 2.5 percentage to the closing advances. There will always be quarterly aberrations.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Sir, can we say this is on account of some sort of seasonality in our business?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Partly because of that and partly, let's say, that [ it tends to happen, ] that's all. It is very difficult to have, what you call, a straight line or having something which is very predictable rates and all. There will always be some amount of thing and all. But what I can say is that it is not part of a trend. Still, whatever information available to me and the comfort whatever I'm getting is that here, as a whole, the year total slippages should be much less than whatever we had here as a whole in financial year '22 and almost similar to the pre-COVID period.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Got it, sir. And sir, are there any trends [ in key figures ] that we observed in general, like some products contributing to slippages more than the others?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Please repeat. The voice is not clear.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Sir, what I'm saying, is there any trend that...

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Is this better now?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Not very much, but anyway, let us try it.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes, sir. So what I was trying to ask was, and this is my last question. In [ general, ] if there were any trends observed in slippages, as in whether some particular products are contributing more to slippages than the other ones.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

No. It is spread across different areas.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from the line of Darpin Shah from Haitong India.

Darpin Shah

Analyst

Sir, you mentioned that you now intend to grow the book on loans by 15% to 18%. And you also mentioned that there has been some positive feedback on why is it you're getting from the specific borrowers. The question is what is that thing which is giving you the confidence? And second is, aren't the borrowers concerned about the rising rates, which have happened over the last, say, [indiscernible]?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, one of the important reason for that is like, I get a feel that the investment cycle will start towards the fourth quarter, which will be giving that extra percentage growth, which I am expecting. So earlier, people were only thinking. Now I'm probably getting a sense that the people are now, let's say, maybe one -- led closer to the investment cycle, and that is one which is making me -- and also some amount of uncertainty, which was there in the -- I mean, definitely, I won't say the uncertainty has come to be 0. But definitely, the uncertainty level has come down now compared to whatever we had 3 months back. So all these things put together has given me that expectation.

Darpin Shah

Analyst

Okay. And sir, anything on the rising interest rates? Aren't the borrowers concerned about that?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Actually speaking, the interest rate currently is only equal to the pre-COVID level. They all know that, let's say, whatever they got during the -- reduction during the COVID period is because of the special dispensation and all. So pre-COVID level, people were, let's say, comfortable with the rate of interest, which they are getting back to that level. We have to look that in that way.

Operator

Operator

We'll take the next question as the last question from the line of Gaurav Jani from Prabhudas Lilladher.

Gaurav Jani

Analyst

Congrats on a good quarter. Two questions. One is structurally in FY '23 versus FY '22, could you see better margins?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, the -- definitely on increasing interest rate scenario, there has to be a, let's say, better margin, then don't interpret that it is going to be 1 percentage more than last year at whatever it is. Let us go step-by-step to don't interpret -- extrapolate it too much, but directionally, there has to be a stable, if not expansionary margin.

Gaurav Jani

Analyst

So to put it another way, could you assume that NII growth would actually be more than loan growth?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Hopefully, we are hoping for that only.

Gaurav Jani

Analyst

Got it. Sir, the second and the last question is slightly more structural. We are looking at a total stress of about close to 8%, that is 5% of restructured and about 3-odd percent of the ECLGS. So I mean, from a '24 standpoint, where do we see this stress actually going to? And how soon could it reduce? And any sort of number do we have it mind?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, regulatorily, I mean to me, I have given me what is my stress. The SMA numbers are against you, and I have told our expected slippage for current year is going to be 2 to 2.5 percentage, similar to closing advances, similar to whatever we had during the pre-COVID period. And this is going to be sum of all regular ECLGS, restructured and everything. So whenever the RBI, let's say, after only a completion of the repayment, the restructured, that will go. It's a regulatory gain. So those sorts of number changes will be based on the regulatory grade line, whatever that is given, number one. Number two, like the -- when I covered the overall expected slippage numbers, whatever that is given, it gives me sufficient comfort that this is the holistic slippage I'm expecting from every different segment of the portfolio.

Gaurav Jani

Analyst

Sir -- got that, sir. If you can, sorry, I probably would have missed this number, but how much of the restructured book will be due this year and next year?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Almost -- I have told all 65 percentage of them have made this thing. Almost 50, 60 percentage of them would be completing their 1-year repayment by the calendar year-end. And once they complete 1-year repayment, they will lose that [indiscernible]. [Operator Instructions]

Operator

Operator

Yes. So we'll have -- we have one question from [ Abhilash Hiran, ] individual investor.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Sir, can you explain, sir, what are our breakup of our book, what percentage would be above INR 100 crores and so on, like some ticket size?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

So we have very little -- I mean, I don't think over INR 100 crore book for us -- [indiscernible]. Just a minute. Around 4 percentage of our book.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Okay. And sir, under INR 5 crores?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

See, these sorts of data points, normally, we don't keep in hand. So you can contact the phone number, which is given in the presentation.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Okay. Okay, sir. And sir, about this INR 100 crores, what generally would be the interest service coverage ratios for these loans?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Each -- normally 1.33, these are all [indiscernible].

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Okay, 1.3. Okay. Okay, sir.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

Where you see the segment -- some segments will be 1.33, some will be 1.5. Some will be 2, depending upon the segment, they will be there.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Sir, generally, what percentage of our employees work in the recovery collections or the recovery segment?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

We don't have what you call any recollection, let's say, agency sort of and all. This is typically the job of branch. The branch will be responsible for both giving the loans and follow-up. Apart from that, we have about 2 to 3 people who are exclusively taking [indiscernible] follow up and all. But normally, we don't have a separate vertical approach in terms of this activity.

Unknown Attendee

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Sir, like in the past, like around in a decade or -- how many branches have the company closed and are the reasons for the same?

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

We have not closed even a single branch in the past [ 7 ] years. Have we covered everybody?

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir. So have covered everyone. You may go ahead with the closing comments.

N. V. Kamakodi

Analyst

So thank you all for attending the con call, and thanks for your wishes. Really gone well, even better than what we were expecting along with fourth quarter call. We hope the -- even for the financial year '22/'23, it's going to be much better on all parameters, growth, NPA numbers, on asset quality. On every factor, it looks like things are getting much better and better. And I hope I will be able to update you with the progress in the subsequent con call. If you have any specific query or any data point, you can always get in touch with Mr. Jayaraman, whose number is there on the presentation, which is posted in the website, Investor Presentation part. Thank you all for attending this call once again. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much on behalf AMBIT Capital, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.