Joseph Albi
Analyst · Gil Yang with Bank of America
Thank you, Mick, and again thank you all for joining us today. As Mick mentioned, with Tom out of the pocket, I'll cover not only our operations update, but I'll hit on this year's joint program and capital as well as I go through and integrate the 2 reports we typically give you. Our first quarter production came in as anticipated, with average reported net equivalent production of 590 million a day. We came in just about at the midpoint of our guidance, which was 582 million to 602 million. As expected, our Q1 production was impacted to the tune of 10 million to 15 million a day from our early February weather-related shut-ins as well as about 4 million a day from our late 2010, early 2011 property sales. Despite the weather delays, we saw year-over-year total company production gains with our Q1 '11 production of 590 million a day beating our Q1 '10 production of 584.5 million a day by 4.5 million a day. When comparing Q1 '11 to Q1 '10, a combined year-over-year production gain of 46 million a day from the Permian and Mid-Continent more than offset the sharp 41 million a day drop that we forecasted and actually saw in the Gulf Coast. Approximately 2/3 of our weather-related downtime occurred in the Permian. And despite the downtime, our Permian Q1 '11 average equivalent basis of 174 million a day was up 12% or 20 million a day from our Q1 '10 average of 154 million a day. All the while our Q1 '11 Mid-Continent average of 266 million a day was up 11% or 26 million a day from our Q1 '10 average of 239 million a day. As I just mentioned, the combined 46 million a day year-over-year increases in the Permian and the Mid-Continent, they offset the 41 million decline or 22% drop that we did anticipate and saw in the Gulf Coast, which fell from 190 million a day in Q1 '10 to 149 million a day in Q1 '11. The bottom line to our Q1 production is that despite the weather interruptions, the Permian and Mid-Continent programs continue to exhibit the consistent production growth that we've seen quarter to quarter, and they offset the decline that we saw in the Gulf Coast. This has been a pretty consistent story for us now for about a year and will likely be the same story here in Q2 with our Gulf Coast area net daily equivalent production projected to drop from levels of 149 million a day in Q1 to levels of 100 to 105 million a day in Q2. Our high cash flow and high rate of return Gulf Coast program inherently brings a variable of uncertainty in the timing of production adds and drops. And we've seen these ups and downs in the Gulf Coast over the last few years. But as I'll go into in more detail, the real catalyst for Cimarex's long-term production growth is our multi-year inventory of projects in the Permian and Mid-Continent. We've seen nice production gains in both of these programs, and we expect it to continue. Well, let me jump into our exploration and drilling activity before ending with some additional comments on our production and our guidance. Overall, we drilled and completed 65 gross or 35 net wells during the first quarter, investing $337 million. Of total Q1 capital, 50% was invested in projects located in the Mid-Continent, 46% in the Permian and 4% in the Gulf Coast. I'll briefly touch on each of the regions, and I'll start here first with the Permian. During Q1, we drilled and completed 26 gross or 19.7 net wells in the Permian and at quarter end, 18 net wells were waiting on completion, up from the 10 net wells that we had at year end. While Mick touched on this a little bit earlier, more so in the case in the Permian with our accelerated activity, a tight market for frac equipment and the bad February weather really slowed down our completion activity here near the end of Q1. As we stated in our last call, we were hopeful to see signs of the market loosening up a bit here into Q2, and we certainly have. We firmed up solid plans to add at least 3 additional fleets to the Permian in the May-June timeframe to catch up on our backlog with a minimum of 5 frac crews working in the area by the end of Q2. We contemplating a sixth. Our current frac schedule calls for us to significantly reduce our backlog of wells, waiting on completion here by the end of Q3. Our Permian E&D capital totaled $154 million in Q1. That represents about 46% of our total company Q1 capital. For the full year, we're expecting to invest $700 million to $750 million in the Permian, which will represent about 50% to 55% of our total 2011 capital budget. As I mentioned previously, we continue to see solid production growth in the Permian. Our Q1 '11 production averaged 174 million a day equivalents, which on a BOE basis equates to 28,954 BOE per day, so 12% increase over Q1 '10. And the real driver of that growth has been our New Mexico second and third Bone Spring horizontal oil plays. We continue to see great results from these programs. During Q1, we drilled and completed 8 gross or 4 net wells with another 11 gross or 7.7 net wells waiting on completion. By year end, we expect to drill a total of 60 gross or 39 net wells in the play, investing nearly $200 million. Since we kicked off the play in mid-2009, we've drilled and completed a total of 36 wells. And those 36 wells gave us a first quarter gross exit rate of 6,800 BOE per day, which was up from 0 not quite 2 years ago. Our absolute EURs for the wells that we drilled and completed is 570,000 BOE, and that's comprised of 416,000 barrels of oil and 920 million cubic feet of gas, virtually the same number we've been quoting to you all for months now. With these reserves, the 570,000 Mboe or 570,000 BOE, we're seeing very attractive rates of return. But our economics continue to be squeezed just a bit as compared to last year. Although we've seen some overall cost ability over the last 3 months, drilling and completion costs have moved up from last year primarily as a result of our increased frac costs. Our generic second Bone Spring completed well now runs around $4.8 million to $5.2 million and that's up 20% to 30% from last year. But even with this cost creep, this play continues to be a great play for us. And we have a deep, multi-year inventory of future drilling opportunities. Shifting gears a bit, I have a few comments on our emerging Delaware Basin/Wolfcamp shale play. As we previously mentioned, this is a play which covers a very large potential area from southern Eddy County, New Mexico, down south into Culberson and Reeves Counties in West Texas. As most of you know, most of our activity to date has been focused right in and around the state line. During Q1, we drilled and completed 2 gross or 2 net Wolfcamp shale wells in the area, bringing our total completed, I'll call play concept well count to 8 producers. We have another 5 gross or 5 net wells which are waiting on completion and pipeline connections at quarter end. And we're currently working on infrastructure and markets for these 5 wells and anticipate having them completed and online here by late Q2, early Q3. One of the 2 wells that we drilled during Q1 was located in our White City area in Eddy County, New Mexico, and the other was a reentry further south in Reeves County, Texas. Our results continue to be encouraging, but we're still in the very early stages of evaluating the play. We currently have 3 wells drilling in the play with AFEs to drill and complete running in the $6.5 million to $7 million range. Today we seen no additional information which would have us depart from the average play production statistics we previously provided you. And those were an average equivalent 30-day IP of about 6 million a day composed of 50% gas, 32% natural gas liquids and 18% oil. We a great acreage position in the play. It totals 125,000 net acres. Not only do we see the acreage as perspective in the Wolfcamp, which by itself has significant potential to Cimarex, but we also have exposure to the Avalon Shale and the Cisco/Canyon shales as well. Although our early emphasis has been on the Wolfcamp, we do have wells planned in the Q2, Q3 timeframe to test both the Avalon and the Cisco/Canyon intervals. By year end, we expect to drill a total of 25 to 30 wells in the play, and end the year with a 2011 drilling investment of approximately $200 million in the play. As you all know, the Permian is a hot area right now. Competition is fierce and costs are rising. Our plans are to continue to aggressively move forward, and we'll maintain a strong focus like we always have on rate of return and continue to test our economics with sensitivities using flat price stats to hydrate our portfolios. We have a great land position in the Permian. The basin's an integral part of our ongoing business, as you all know. We have a solid multi-year inventory of future drilling opportunities on our existing acreage. And you'll see us continue to add acreage when and where we can, only as long as it continues to make sense. The Permian team has done a great job of picking up activity and developing the program. We're really excited about its momentum and what the program brings to the table. Moving onto the Mid-Continent, during Q1 we drilled and completed 37 gross or 13.2 net wells in the area. And at quarter end, we had 32 gross or 13 net wells in the process of either being completed or awaiting completion. The majority of wells waiting on completion were in Cana. And similar to our plans in the Permian, we firmed up the addition of another fleet this month to catch up on our backlog of completions. With 2 frac crews working Cana starting here in May, our current frac schedule calls for us to significantly reduce backlog of our completions by the end of Q3. Our Mid-Continent E&D capital in the first quarter totaled $169 million or about 50% of our total company Q1 capital. And for the full year, we expect to invest $500 million to $550 million in the Mid-Continent, representing approximately 40% of our anticipated total company capital spending. As we've mentioned, our first quarter 2011 Mid-Continent production averaged $266 million a day. That's up 11% over our first quarter. And a main driver to this growth is our Cana/Woodford Shale play, which as most of you all know is in the Anadarko Basin. In Cana, we've drilled and completed 31 gross or 9.6 net wells. And at quarter end, we had 29 gross or 11.1 net wells waiting on completion. We currently have 9 and soon to be 10 here in June operated rigs working in Cana and we're drilling one well per section. We still anticipate being a bit over a year away from initiating our down spacing development, but we wanted to continue to evaluate optimal spacing and as a result, we've begun a 2-well pilot to help further evaluate spacing, which we hope here to have completed in the Q2, Q3 timeframe. Outside of that, we'll continue to drill on the core and on the peripheral of the bill to continue to further develop and test the play. Our generic Cana AFEs for the shallow and core areas have stayed somewhat flat over the last 3 months at levels of $7.5 million to $8.5 million, but they are up approximately 10% to 15% from the well cost that we saw in early to mid-2010. We're still leasing and hydrating our land position in Cana and hold a very strong land position with over 135,000 net acres, 70,000 of which we believe are located directly in the core. Cana continues to be a great play for us. We're very proud of it, and it's moving forward very nicely. In other areas of the Mid-Continent outside of Cana, we drilled 5 gross or 2.8 net wells during Q1, with 3 gross or 1.8 net wells located in Hemphill County, Texas, and 2 gross or 1.2 net wells located in Custer County, Oklahoma. Two of our significant Hemphill County Granite Wash successes include our George 17-5H, in which we hold a 61% working interest, which came on during the quarter with a 30-day IP of 8.6 million a day. And our George 17-6H in which we also hold a 61% working interest, and it came on at 8 million a day. Of significant note, Custer County was the successful drilling of our Kephart 1-4, our Hogs bar or Hogshooter test, in which we hold a 91% interest. It came on with a 30-day IP of over 1,000 BOE per day, 71% of which was oil. Moving on to the Gulf Coast, during Q1 we drilled 2 gross or 1.8 net wells, testing the Kirby and the Yegua/Cook Mountain series, one of which was successful. Our first 2011 test, our Two Sisters #3 well in which we own 100%, was successfully completed in early January. And it came on at rates of approximately 9 million a day and 1,600 barrels of oil per day. Our second 2011 Gulf Coast test, as Mick mentioned, our Manion #2 was a dry hole. Our Gulf Coast E&D Capital in Q1 totaled 13 million or about 4% of our total Q1 capital. And for the full year, we expect to invest $100 million in the Gulf Coast program or about 8% of our total company capital. We have a variety of identified remaining 3D prospects, a good mix of larger higher-risk projects and smaller lower-risk projects. Our original 2011 Gulf Coast plan called for us to run with a one-rig program and possibly add a second rig line from time to time during the year. But as Mick alluded to, we're stepping up the pace of our Gulf Coast program by adding a second rig in the next few weeks and a third rig here in June. To the extent the prospects that we have are non-contingent, you'll see us get them drilled as soon as we can. And as such, depending on our success, will either see us end the year with 3 rigs or not. I'll cover some of the other Gulf Coast items as I go over our second quarter and full year production guidance. When discussing second quarter full year '11 guidance, I think it's important to touch on a couple of factors which have implicated our guidance. First is our backlog of Permian and Cana wells waiting on frac. Mick touched on 2 factors really playing a role here, and I'll reiterate them. One was our desire to test and understand various completion techniques, and the other was a tight market for frac equipment. As you may recall, starting in the latter part of 2010, we purposely had a backlog of completions in Cana due simply to our desire to test and understand various completion techniques in order to optimize our completions. Post completion production performance, which is in essence time, is needed to evaluate results. Compounding that time necessary to evaluate are those instances where slow flow techniques are used to flow wells back. Well, 6 months down the road now we're feeling more confident about the completion designs we're utilizing in Cana and in the Permian oil plays and we're ready to speed things up. To do so, we firmed up the addition of at least 4 additional frac fleets to the 3 existing fleets we had working in Q1. With additional fleets scheduled to show up in the May, June timeframe, our current frac schedule calls for us to make a good dent in the backlog by the end of Q3, with forecasted associated production uplift beginning in late Q2 and into Q3. Secondly, as you all are aware, success in our Gulf Coast program can create significant periodic swings on our production, both up and down. As we've said before, predicting the timing and success of these 50% to 60% COS high-rate wells will play a sensitive role in our guidance projections, especially in the case of the single rig program where a well either hits or it doesn't. Third, the need to cut back on our existing Gulf Coast Beaumont area producers to protect them against sand flow has impacted our production as well. In our Jefferson Airplane area, despite cutting back the wells, by the end of the first quarter 3 of our 4 operated wells had ceased production. With this being a competitive reservoir, we made the decision to sidetrack our Jefferson Airplane #2 well with a rig we had working in the 2011 Gulf Coast inventory. We just recently submitted pipe on the Jefferson Airplane #2 sidetrack earlier this week, which frees up the rig to get back to work on our 2011 inventory. Our Gulf Coast program is now delayed, hence us adding 2 rigs to the program: one in May and the other planned for June. And finally, in addition to the 2 rigs we plan to add in the Gulf Coast, we have plans to add additional rigs in the Permian and the Mid-Continent, which should bring our anticipated rig count to 30 rigs in the Q2, Q3 timeframe. So with accelerated activity, both in rigs and completions, we expect continued strong production growth in the Permian and Mid-Continent during the second quarter with anticipated increases of 5% to 10% from reported levels in Q1. With the production cutbacks and delays we've mentioned in the Gulf Coast however, our Gulf Coast volumes are expected to drop 45 million to 50 million a day or 30% to 33% from Q1 to Q2, but it's a drop our Permian and Mid-Continent programs are projected to overcome, and hence our flat guidance of 580 to 600 here for the second quarter. Looking at our full year 2011 guidance, we expect continued strong production growth in the Permian and the Mid-Continent during Q3 and Q4, projecting approximate year-over-year production growth of 15% to 25% in these areas. Our current modeling predicts our 2011 Gulf Coast volumes will exhibit a year-over-year drop of $62 million a day or 35% from an average of $174 million a day in 2010 to $112 million a day here in 2011. However, our strong Permian and Mid-Continent production growth is projected to continue to more than offset that Gulf Coast decline, resulting in our revised guidance of 605 to 635 million a day, a range which equates to 2% to 7% production growth over our 2010 average of 596 million a day. The bottom line to our quarter is this: Nothing's changed in the way we think or what we do. We continue to stay focused on maximizing our return on investment through deliberate evaluation and execution. We have high cash flow, no significant debt, a deep inventory of drilling projects in each one of our core areas. We're seeing Q1 and Q2 production impacted by weather, production cutbacks in the Gulf Coast and delayed production adds in our Gulf Coast program, but we're teed up for production growth in the latter half of this year. We have an accelerated plan to catch up on our backlog of completions, and we've increased drilling activity in each one of our core areas. Most importantly, we have established momentum in our 2 long-term growth programs, the Permian and our Mid-Continent programs, the programs with deep multiyear inventories of drilling. And over time, the depth and consistent growth of these 2 programs will ultimately dominate the growth of our company. So with that, I'll turn it over to Paul.