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Carter's, Inc. (CRI)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Mon, Apr 28, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, please standby, we are about to begin. Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Carter’s First Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. On the call today are Michael Casey, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Richard Westenberger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Brian Lynch, President; and Sean McHugh, Vice President and Treasurer. After today’s prepared remarks, we will take questions as time allows. Carter’s issued its first quarter 2014 earnings press release earlier this morning. A copy of the release, and presentation materials for today’s call have been posted on the Investor Relations section of the company’s website at www.carters.com. Before we begin, let me remind you that statements made on this conference call and in the company’s presentation materials about the company’s outlook, plans and future performance are forward-looking statements, actual results may differ materially from those projected. For discussion of factors that could cause actual results to vary from those contained in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company’s most recent annual report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also on this call, the company will reference various non-GAAP financial measurements. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measurements to the GAAP financial measurements is provided in the company’s earnings release and presentation materials. Also, today’s call is being recorded. And now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Casey.

Michael D. Casey

Management

Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on the call. Before we walk you through the presentation on our website, I’d like to share some thoughts on our business with you. As you may have seen in the press release this morning we weathered the winter storms in the first quarter reasonably well. We achieved our sales and earnings goals for the quarter. Thankfully, given the broad reach of our multi-channel business model, we continue to see good growth in our Carter's, OshKosh and international businesses. And with the benefit of more spring like weather and Easter holiday shopping, we saw even better performance in the month of April. Given the favorable trends in our business and progress with our growth initiatives we are affirming our sales and earnings goals for the year. Our growth in the quarter was driven by our Carter’s brand, with good growth in both our wholesale and retail businesses. Despite a significantly higher number of store closures due to the winter storms retail sales grew over 10% in the first quarter. Retail sales growth was driven by new stores and the continued success of our eCommerce business. Our new stores are performing inline with our expectations, and we’re on track to open 60 Carter stores this year, Carter’s comp stores sales were lower than we had planned, traffic to these stores was lower than last year, which we attributed to the winter storms and the shift in the Easter holiday, a traffic was consistently better than industry trends. Other key metrics including conversation rates and average prices all improved over last year. Carter’s spring product offering was beautifully designed and executed. In retrospect our Carter stores may have benefited from a higher mix of wear now products given the weather, given…

Richard F. Westenberger

Management

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone. I will walk through the presentation materials posted on our website. I’ll highlight our first quarter results and then cover our expectations for the second quarter and the balance of the year. Note that my comments refer to our performance on an as adjusted basis reconciliation to our GAAP result’s is provided in the appendix of today’s presentation. I will begin on Page 2 with some highlights of the first quarter. As Mike’s said we’re pleased overall with the quarter, hard to remember a quarter with more adversity in the form of weather disruptions on such a sustained and broad geographic basis across North America than we experienced this year. Despite the severe winter weather we delivered strong top-line growth across the company in the first quarter, both in the U.S. and in our international operations. Sales grew 10% including a strong contribution to growth from OshKosh for the second consecutive quarter. Strong unit growth of 9% drove our top line with a modest improvement in pricing. As expected earnings of $0.73 per share were down versus the year-ago principally due to higher product costs and higher spending. We expect the negative impact of higher product costs and the growth rate and spending to moderate over the balance of this year. Page 3 highlights the drivers of our sales growth in the first quarter. Total Carter’s sales in the U.S. grew 10% with balanced contributions from both the wholesale and retail segments. Carter’s wholesale results were inline with our plan there was some year-over-year benefit due to the movement of some shipments from the fourth quarter last year into the first quarter of this year. Contributing to the over 9% growth over the last year’s first quarter, this timing issue contributed about 4 percentage…

Operator

Operator

Thank you sir. Ladies and gentlemen our question-and-answer session will be conducted electronically. (Operator Instructions) and for our first question, we’ll go to Susan Anderson with FBR. Susan K. Anderson – FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Good morning and congrats on a good quarter in a really tough environment.

Michael D. Casey

Management

Thank you Susan, good morning. Susan K. Anderson – FBR Capital Markets & Co.: I was wondering if you could maybe go over the puts and takes of the guidance for the second quarter, like just expectations for gross margin and SG&A and when do we finally start to maybe see the SG&A leverage?

Richard F. Westenberger

Management

Sure. Susan we’re expecting good top line revenue growth as I just went through. We are expecting the gross margin rate will be improved serially from first quarter and that’s because of the pricing actions got to be a bit more significant. In the second quarter we start to shift some of the fall product to our wholesale customers. And that product is going out at higher prices. So looking at essentially flattish gross margin I would say perhaps down slightly and in the growth rate in SG&A slows from its growth rate in the first quarter. The leverage that we’re expecting in SG&A is more centered around the second half of the year that’s driven by a number of things including distribution costs, we expect to have lower professional fees. Marketing expenses are lower in the second half. All those contributed to the forecast that we have for leverage which occurred in the second half. Susan K. Anderson – FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Okay, great. That is really helpful. And then just one follow-up on the store comps, second quarter today. So it sounds like they have improved meaningfully with the weather pickup and obviously the Easter shift. Maybe if you could give a little bit more color in terms of just by brand are they comping positive and then also Canada too?

Richard F. Westenberger

Management

I’d say they’re positive in the U.S. both in OshKosh and Carter’s and they’re positive in Canada, it has been a significant step-up in terms of the comp number for April. We’ve chosen not to – to give you the discrete number. But it is a real departure from the quarter trend and we’re certainly happy to say it. Susan K. Anderson – FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Great. That sounds really good. Well, congrats again and good luck the rest of the quarter.

Richard F. Westenberger

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And for our next question we go to Robert Ohmes with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Daniel O'hare – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Hi, thanks for taking my call. This is Dan O'Hare for Robby Ohmes. What is your sourcing cost outlook for 2014 and what are some of the key drivers behind your higher product costs? Thanks.

Michael D. Casey

Management

The costs will be higher both in the first half and second half. We took more meaningful price action in the second half. So the cost has been driven up by principally higher labor costs. We’ve improved the product offering, so some of that cost increases reflects better product benefits. And so there is nothing new to report in terms of product costs between now and the next time we update you in July, we may start to have some visibility on spring 2015. I’d say our merchants, our designers, our supply chain team has been working hard to make sure that we control the growth and product costs going forward. So we saw some portion of 6% or 7% increase in product costs. We’ve enjoyed that half of that with pricing, in the first half we plan to absorb most of that increase with pricing in the second half. Daniel O'hare – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Great, and lastly, can you give any additional details for what eCommerce in Canada will look like versus eCommerce in the US?

Michael D. Casey

Management

We hope it grows to be a good business for us by 2018. We hope it grows to at least 10% of the store sales we’re projecting the store sales to be closer to $300 million by 2018 and if we are successful with that initiative of the eCommerce sales should be up 10% of that or above $30 million. Daniel O'hare – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Great, thanks so much, guys.

Michael D. Casey

Management

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

And for our next question we go to Steph Wissink with Piper Jaffray. Steph S. Wissink – Piper Jaffray & Co: Hi, good morning everyone. Two questions for us. First, gentlemen, if you could just talk about the international markets. You spent a lot of time on Canada but maybe give us some thoughts around Europe and Asia, I think you mentioned Brazil as well. Just thoughts generally around the growth of those markets in the potential long-term. And then secondly, as you think about the Canadian business as it has bounced back a bit, are you seeing any differences between the US and Canada with respect to mix or mix shift retail to online?

Michael D. Casey

Management

Well, let me start with the second question first in Canada we don’t have much of an online business. We have no real online business currently that’s why we plan to launch it in second half of this year as you know the online experience, the United States has been terrific. This has been wonderful experience for us, it ha high growth business for us, a high margin business for us. Time will tell when we’re not able to replicate that success in Canada. But we’ll keep you informed; today if you went on our website in Canada it is largely information only. There is no commerce sales being done on that website, but that will come before the end of the year that’s our plan. With respect to international I think the important thing for you to know is that most of the growth that we envision, it starts with the growth objectives. We planned to grow the international business on average got 20% a year, through 2018, that’s our planning horizon in next five years. Most of that growth will be driven by the business we currently own. We have a wonderful business up in Canada, we do good amount of business with multinational retailers, Costco, WalMart, Target, Sears, Babies'R'Us. So, yes, we are making the most of those relationships. And we have distributors in Central and South America. We have distributors in the Middle East. So we’ve got a good book of business today, and so we are planning our international business to grow from some portion of 10% of total. Sales today do about 15% by 2018, if we’re successful with our growth plans. We expect our total sales to closer to $4 billion by 2018 and 15% of that would be roughly $600 million. So…

Michael D. Casey

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we go next to Taposh Bari with Goldman Sachs. Taposh Bari – Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hi, guys good morning.

Michael D. Casey

Management

Good morning. Taposh Bari – Goldman Sachs & Co.: I had a question just on this notion of pricing elasticity. So you are raising prices pretty aggressively in the back half. For the full year do you expect higher prices to be a net positive to revenues net of any kind of unit erosion? And I am specifically thinking about this fall booking number, down low singles. You are raising prices pretty aggressively, I would expect - I would've expected the fall booking number to be higher, if you could help us understand the dynamics there.

Michael D. Casey

Management

Yes, I wouldn’t say we are raising prices aggressively, we’ve been very thoughtful on pricing action it’s based on a deep dive, a deep competitive review of where we have product that is for better than what's in the market. A lot of the multi-piece sets, it is charges see anyone else in the market with the beauty of that product offering that we offer. So this is not done across the Board price increase. Yes, we learned good experience from cotton price spike a few years ago, where there is ability to raise prices and where there is not. So things like the five pack one body suit, where that price point is well known by the consumer and it’s easily compared with the competition, there is being less price action on multi-piece sets there is been more price action. So, yes we’ve already sold in fall, so we’ve already had a good conversation with the largest retailers in the country, they would agree based on their bookings that we’ve thoughtful on those price increases. So time will tell how the consumer responds to it, but we’ve this is in the first time we’ve taking prices, up we’ve done thoughtfully, we’re mindful to consumer is looking for good value. And we’re determined to be competitive in the market. Taposh Bari – Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. Then just a question on your distribution costs. I know you've been saying they are going to be down in the back half. Can you help us - help provide a measure of what down means, is it going to be down slightly, down mid-single-digits, just trying to get some more context?

Michael D. Casey

Management

I would rather not be that specific right now. We are expecting leverage of distribution cost in the second half, that’s one of the largest components of SG&A and that will enable us, that is one component of several that give us the confidence that we can expand the operating margin this year. Taposh Bari – Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay, great. And then just two quick housekeeping items. One is - Richard, can you quantify the 53rd week in terms of revenue and EPS? And then second is, is it fair to say that April is by far the largest month of your second quarter?

Richard F. Westenberger

Management

No, I’d say April is actually one of the smaller months May and June are much more significant periods for us. The 53rd week we’ve estimated to be around $40 million in revenue it occurs in December as we calendarized it, it is probably a few pennies of EPS it’s not a particularly profitable week for us. Taposh Bari – Goldman Sachs: Okay. Thanks, guys. Good luck.

Richard F. Westenberger

Management

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And we go next to Rick Patel with Stephens Incorporated. Rick B. Patel – Stephens Inc.: Hi good morning everyone. Congrats on the strong momentum.

Michael D. Casey

Management

Thank you Rick B. Patel – Stephens Inc.: I know the competitive environment remains promotional out there, but can you put that into context for us whether it is better or worse than in recent quarters? And then the first quarter I know was helped by price and can you put that into context as well, whether it was taking prices up selectively on certain products like you previously mentioned or was it more expensive products that were outperforming?

Brian J. Lynch

Analyst

Hey, Rick, it is Brian, just some commentary on that. The promotional environment continues to be robust, let's put it that way. I think it was a tough quarter in the market based on weather, so retailers did what they had to do to move goods. We had positive AURs in the quarter. But we did promote where we needed to based on how the weather impacted our business, the spring forward product wasn't quite as strong as we hoped in January and February. But overall our inventories are in good shape, we feel good about that. And our pricing, again, we took I would say modest pricing action in the first half; we didn't totally offset the cost as we have said before. But there was modest pricing action and we did have some elevation of AUR but it is a more purposeful approach for the second half. Rick B. Patel – Stephens Inc.: Great and then could you talk about the launch on eComm in Canada, what is your market research tell about, how big that opportunity could eventually be and then just given some of the pricing differences that you have across markets, does that also have the potential to be higher margin channel?

Michael D. Casey

Management

Yes, we expect it to be a higher margin channel for us, time will tell this is – the analysis we’ve done would suggest that it could be as good, as we seen in the United States interesting on our demand and on our U.S. website from Canada does not rank in the top five. So we’re following that it might be because of the evaluation of the Canadian dollar. So part of our key initiatives is to extend the reach of the brand make the brand more convenient today consumers in Canada cannot shop online in paying Canadian dollar. So that’s what we’re trying to accomplish so we do believe our models would reflect that. We believe it can grow to about 10% of the retail business by 2018 in the United States. Our experience has been there better than that. But we haven’t even launched the website that’s it. As we start to get experience we’ll have a better view on what the potential is there. Rick B. Patel – Stephens Inc.: Thank you. And good luck this spring.

Michael D. Casey

Management

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

And we go next to Howard Tubin with RBC. Courtney A. Willson – RBC Capital Markets LLC: Hey, this is Courtney Wilson in for Howard. Can you just update us on your thoughts about the off-price channel and your use of it for clearance or as more of a distribution channel? Thanks.

Michael D. Casey

Management

Yes, Courtney, the off-price channel is – it is a component of the company there is some business that we do have I would say that they’ve been, its been very helpful to us when we have accessed inventory issues, our excess has been under control very modest last year, actually. So it’s a channel that we do use to liquidate product. It is something that we do see us playing in going forward, but I would say it’s a meaningful growth potential at all.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) we go next to Anna Andreeva with Oppenheimer. Anna Andreeva – Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.: Great, thanks good morning guys and thanks for taking my question. We had two questions this morning. A question about Carter's wholesale, just very strong results there. What are you implying for this bucket in the second quarter given the timing shift? And I was hoping you could talk a bit about what is driving better expectations for fall bookings in wholesale, just any update on the negative impact from the one customer cutting back. And if you have any visibility yet on spring 2015. And just a quick follow-up on price increases. I think in the past you had said you expect to offset all of the increases in the back half. I guess what is the rationale for what sounds like somewhat more cautious outlook now? Now maybe talk about the dynamics that you are seeing of taking prices up in retail or wholesale channel? And are you expecting gross margins for the year to still be down slightly? Thanks so much.

Brian J. Lynch

Analyst

Anna, I’ll take the first part of the question I think overall for spring 2015 we feel it its too early to tell, we haven’t take products out there in totality. But for wholesale we feel good about that long-term it’s a low single digit growth channel. We’re planning low single digit for this year there is a lot of components of moving parts we did talk about some customer changes the last time we spoke I feel that situation has stabilized. But overall it’s a mix of several different companies they all have their own growth objectives. We feel that first quarter as Richard mentioned about half of the upside was from it’s a movement from Q4 into Q1. But when you even it all out for the year will be up low single digit, we believe that’s the case, we believe that’s the case for next year. So good channel continued growth and we feel good about that particularly with a multi-channel distribution strategy, we have and we continue to grow that wholesale business. In terms of pricing as Mike said they have accepted the price increases. It candidly was not a significant conversation we booked in fall. I think they felt that we did a good job. And where we merchandise the lines and added value to the product and where we did take pricing action that the consumer is going to respond to it. And then for spring 2015 we have not – we haven’t frozen that line yet in terms of saying that samples and the cost and the pricing. So really can’t count on how the retailers will react to that at this point.

Richard F. Westenberger

Management

Anna, in terms of gross margin for the full year I would say our outlook is consistent with what we said before we’re expecting it to be sort of flattish to down somewhat certainly the effect of the product cost in the first half have negative affect on full year gross margin there are some other factors to think about. We do have this foreign currency devaluation in Canada which is reducing or depressing the Canadian gross margins. We’re incurring some additional freight expenses well as we are rerouting product in anticipation of this potential strike, those are some additional costs that are pressuring gross margin in addition to product cost. Anna Andreeva – Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.: Thank you so much guys, very helpful.

Operator

Operator

And with that ladies and gentlemen we have no further questions on our roster. Therefore, Mr. Casey, I will turn the conference back over to you for any closing remarks.

Michael D. Casey

Management

Okay, thanks very much. Thank you all for joining us on the call. We appreciate your questions, and your interest in our business. And we hope the update was helpful to you, we look forward to updating you again on our progress in July. Good-bye.

Operator

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude today’s conference. Thank you for your participation.